格隆汇1月5日｜菲律宾经济部长：预计在低通胀背景下，消费者支出将于2026年反弹。预计整体经济将 实现强劲增长，尤其是在下半年。2026年增长目标上调至5%-6%。2027年国内生产总值增长目标上调至 5.5%-6.5%。维持2028年6%-7%的GDP增长目标。 ...

中信建投展望一：2026年A股牛市有望持续；展望二：资本市场"新四牛"，资源优化提质效；展望三： 2025年推升金的宏观逻辑，在2026年必将推升铜；展望四：预计GDP增长目标5%左右；展望五："十五 五"规划落地形成顺周期刺激，财政赤字率延续扩张态势；展望六：2026年中国经济或有五大亮点；展 望七：把握算力四大投资机会；展望八：人形机器人及具身智能，吹响量产元年号角，万亿赛道启航； 展望九：2026年储能全行业将量价齐升共振受益；展望十：医药行业，价值重塑，静待花开。 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二市股票市场全天冲高回落，三大指数小幅上涨。个股跌多涨少，沪深京 | | | | 三市超 3800 股飘绿，今日成交 1.92 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.07%，深成指 | | | | 涨 0.27%，创业板指涨 0.41%。近期，股指期货市场围绕 10 月以来的中枢下 | | | | 沿持续震荡，大小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温和。 | | | | 12 月政治局会议与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响 | | | | 有望增强。从政策表述来看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"， | | | | 预计明年 5%的 GDP 增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主要集中在"稳内 | | | 股指 | 需"和"促进新质生产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投 | 震荡 | | | 资于人紧密结合"，提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重 | | | | 要条件。同时强调"保持必要财政赤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macro policy has entered a critical window of "tuning - starting" with a GDP growth target expected to remain around 5% until 2026, emphasizing price factors and nominal growth [1] Group 1: Macro Policy Focus - The macro policy is expected to focus on three main lines: firstly, to emphasize "starting well," with a more proactive and timely macro policy [1] - Secondly, there will be a focus on "expanding domestic demand," shifting the consumption drive from goods to service consumption, with a need for stronger real estate policies and a recovery in infrastructure investment [1] - Thirdly, the technology focus will remain unchanged, accelerating the transition between old and new growth drivers [1] Group 2: Market Attention Areas - The strength and direction of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, promoting consumption, and "reducing competition" will be key areas of market attention [1]

据菲律宾《商业世界》11月17日报道，穆迪分析公司助理董事兼经济学家莎拉·谭17日接受采访时表 示，菲2025年GDP实现5%的经济增长目标更为现实；第四季度GDP增速可能为5.2%，不太可能推动全 年增长达到5.5%至6.5%的目标；因第三季度经济表现疲软，对假日消费的提振作用"谨慎乐观"；菲政 府应加快向受灾社区发放援助进行干预，重建公众信任。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, expresses confidence that China will achieve its GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, citing a 5.2% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters [1] Economic Growth Projections - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's average annual economic growth rate is approximately 5.4% [1] - Maintaining an economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% in the coming years is essential for laying a solid foundation to achieve the goal of basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of Vietnam is to achieve an annual GDP growth rate of at least 10% from 2026 to 2030, which is an increase from the previous target of 6.5% to 7.0% for the period of 2021 to 2025 [1] - Vietnam plans to raise its per capita GDP to $8,500 by 2030, compared to the target of $4,700 to $5,000 set for the 2021-2025 period [3]

Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and outline economic work for the second half of the year [1] - Liu Xiaoning, Assistant General Manager and Director of the Research Institute at Huayuan Securities, indicated that the meeting sets the tone for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued fiscal and monetary easing [1] - The expectation is that China will achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, which supports a stable and positive development of the stock market [1] Economic Policy and Market Impact - Since September 2024, economic recovery has been observed, driven by incremental policy measures, leading to a steady rise in the stock market [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which is expected to further boost investor confidence and promote a stable upward trend in the stock market [1] - The focus on macroeconomic policies and their timely reinforcement is aimed at sustaining economic growth and supporting the capital market's development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philippines has revised its GDP growth target for 2025 down to a range of 5.5% to 6.5% [1] Economic Outlook - The adjustment reflects a more cautious approach to economic growth amid various challenges [1] - The previous target was higher, indicating a shift in economic expectations [1]