据菲律宾《商业世界》11月17日报道，穆迪分析公司助理董事兼经济学家莎拉·谭17日接受采访时表 示，菲2025年GDP实现5%的经济增长目标更为现实；第四季度GDP增速可能为5.2%，不太可能推动全 年增长达到5.5%至6.5%的目标；因第三季度经济表现疲软，对假日消费的提振作用"谨慎乐观"；菲政 府应加快向受灾社区发放援助进行干预，重建公众信任。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, expresses confidence that China will achieve its GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, citing a 5.2% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters [1] Economic Growth Projections - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's average annual economic growth rate is approximately 5.4% [1] - Maintaining an economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% in the coming years is essential for laying a solid foundation to achieve the goal of basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of Vietnam is to achieve an annual GDP growth rate of at least 10% from 2026 to 2030, which is an increase from the previous target of 6.5% to 7.0% for the period of 2021 to 2025 [1] - Vietnam plans to raise its per capita GDP to $8,500 by 2030, compared to the target of $4,700 to $5,000 set for the 2021-2025 period [3]

Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and outline economic work for the second half of the year [1] - Liu Xiaoning, Assistant General Manager and Director of the Research Institute at Huayuan Securities, indicated that the meeting sets the tone for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued fiscal and monetary easing [1] - The expectation is that China will achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, which supports a stable and positive development of the stock market [1] Economic Policy and Market Impact - Since September 2024, economic recovery has been observed, driven by incremental policy measures, leading to a steady rise in the stock market [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which is expected to further boost investor confidence and promote a stable upward trend in the stock market [1] - The focus on macroeconomic policies and their timely reinforcement is aimed at sustaining economic growth and supporting the capital market's development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philippines has revised its GDP growth target for 2025 down to a range of 5.5% to 6.5% [1] Economic Outlook - The adjustment reflects a more cautious approach to economic growth amid various challenges [1] - The previous target was higher, indicating a shift in economic expectations [1]

Core Points - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan has announced a policy agenda for the upcoming elections, aiming for a 50% increase in national income by 2040 and a GDP exceeding 1,000 trillion yen (approximately $6.9 trillion) [1] - The LDP has committed to ensuring real and nominal wage growth rates of 1% and 3% per year, respectively, with a target of increasing average annual income from 4.2 million yen to 5.2 million yen by the fiscal year 2030 [1] - To alleviate inflation concerns, the LDP plans to provide cash subsidies of 40,000 yen per person to low-income groups and children, and 20,000 yen to other citizens [1] - The LDP is prepared to implement additional measures in response to tariff impacts, following recent emergency measures approved by the Shibayama Cabinet [1] - The nominal GDP of Japan reached a record high of 609 trillion yen in 2024, reaffirming the government's goal of achieving 1,000 trillion yen by 2040 [1] Additional Context - The support rate for the Shibayama Cabinet has seen a rebound, partly due to progress made by Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, in controlling rice price increases, which is a significant inflation issue affecting ordinary households [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's national development planning agency has set the GDP growth target for 2026 at 5.8%-6.3% [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian government has established a work plan for 2026, targeting GDP growth between 5.8% and 6.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Ministry of Finance officials indicate that achieving the 3% GDP growth target for this year will be challenging [1] Economic Outlook - The Thai economy is facing difficulties in meeting the projected GDP growth rate of 3% for the current year [1]