2026年要坚持稳中求进工作总基调 2月5日召开的西安市委十四届十次全会暨市委经济工作会议提出，2026年要坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，"以确保质的有效提升和量的合理增长牵引经济工 作"。 西安2026年的目标还包括，规模以上工业增加值增长9%，固定资产投资增速力争不低于全省水平，社 会消费品零售总额增长5.3%，进出口总值增长10%，一般公共预算收入增长3%，城镇和农村居民人均 可支配收入分别增长5.5%和6%，城镇新增就业16万人以上，居民消费价格涨幅2%左右。 在今年春节前的新闻发布会上，西安市发展和改革委副主任王军平介绍，全力推动经济运行稳中向好。 用好国家存量和增量政策包，适时推出本地化加力措施。强化经济工作目标牵引与任务落实机制，提升 政策靶向性和风险防控能力，让企业感受更直接、群众受益更实在。 王军平还表示，2026年将着力构建"物"和"人"协同并进的投资新格局，围绕基础设施、产业和新型基础 设施、民生保障、农业农村、投资于人和消费场景等五大方向，动态谋划、滚动更新项目储备，确保全 年完成投资不少于4500亿元。 这一目标也写进了今年的西安政府工作报告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple provinces have adjusted their GDP growth and fiscal revenue targets for 2026, reflecting a shift towards quality development over speed, with an emphasis on sustainable economic growth and risk prevention [1][2][3]. GDP Growth Targets - The average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.04%, down by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 [2]. - 24 provinces have set their GDP growth targets between 4.5% and 5.5%, with Tibet leading at over 7% due to major infrastructure investments [2][3]. - Jiangxi is the only province to raise its growth target, from around 5% to 5%-5.5%, driven by advancements in new energy and equipment manufacturing [3]. Fiscal Revenue Targets - The average growth target for general public budget revenue across 31 provinces is 2.7%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2025 [10]. - 23 provinces have set their fiscal revenue growth targets between 2% and 4%, with Xinjiang aiming for a 10% increase, the highest among provinces [10][11]. - Major economic provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu have set their fiscal revenue growth targets at 3% and 2%, respectively, which are lower than their GDP growth targets [11][14]. Industrial and Investment Goals - Most provinces have set industrial value-added growth targets above 5%, with Tibet aiming for the highest at 15% [16]. - Investment growth targets have been adjusted downwards in many provinces, reflecting a transition from investment-driven to consumption and innovation-driven growth [18]. - Guangdong has set a 5% investment growth target for 2026, aiming to stabilize and optimize investment structures [18]. Consumer and Employment Expectations - Retail sales growth targets have been lowered in most provinces, with 15 out of 19 provinces reducing their targets [21]. - Employment targets remain largely unchanged, with many provinces maintaining their urban employment goals around 5.5% [25].

转自：经济日报新闻客户端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth targets set by various provinces in China for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with most provinces aiming for an average annual growth rate of around 5% over the next five years, reflecting a shift towards high-quality development amidst economic challenges [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Growth Targets - 17 provinces have announced their growth targets, with most setting an average annual growth rate of approximately 5%. Notable exceptions include Hainan with a target of over 6%, and Xinjiang aiming for 5.5%-6% [6][10]. - Specific growth targets for various provinces include: - Heilongjiang: 4.5%-5% - Jilin: around 5% - Beijing: around 5% with a range of 4.5%-5% - Guangdong: around 5% [7][8]. Economic Analysis - The Chief Economist Forum member, Liao Bo, indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" plays a crucial role in achieving socialist modernization, predicting a national GDP average growth rate of around 5% during this period. The contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth is expected to rise to about 60% [8][9]. - The report highlights that as China transitions to a higher-income economy, the era of rapid economic growth is ending, with investment and consumption growth rates declining due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and de-globalization [8][9]. Provincial Insights - Provinces like Jiangxi and Sichuan have set growth targets that aim to narrow the gap with national averages, with Jiangxi targeting around 5% and Sichuan emphasizing progress in economic strength and innovation [9][10]. - Guangdong's growth target of around 5% is significant given its recent economic pressures, including a 3.9% growth in 2025, which is below the target. The province faces challenges from the real estate market adjustment and needs to adapt to maintain its growth trajectory [11][12]. Investment Trends - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment is highlighted as a key indicator of economic stability, with a reported growth of 7.2% in 2025, significantly above the national average. This reflects a recovery in private investment across various sectors [11][10]. - The article notes that Guangdong's economic transformation is ongoing, with the real estate sector's downturn impacting overall investment and consumption, posing both short-term and long-term challenges [12].

Core Insights - The growth targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been set by various provinces, with Hainan, Xinjiang, and Anhui leading in growth rates [1][2][7] Growth Targets - Most provinces have set average annual growth targets around 5%, with 17 provinces announcing their targets [2] - Hainan aims for an average annual growth rate of over 6%, Xinjiang targets 5.5%-6%, and Anhui sets a target of 5%-5.5% [2][7] Economic Development Strategies - Hainan's government report outlines five supporting factors for its growth targets, including the establishment of a free trade port policy and a modern industrial system [7] - Xinjiang's growth is supported by fixed asset investments, leveraging its energy and resource advantages [8] Regional Economic Performance - Guangdong's growth target is set at around 5% annually, with a focus on doubling its economic output by 2035 [8][9] - The province faces challenges from real estate market adjustments, impacting fixed asset investments and consumer spending [9] Future Projections - The national average GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with total factor productivity contributing significantly to this growth [4] - The economic landscape is expected to face both challenges and opportunities due to global economic changes and domestic adjustments [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector showed a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling, and coal and coke rising first and then falling, overall performing weakly. The iron ore futures led the decline. In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, with non - ferrous metals having the largest decline [4]. - Globally, uncertainties have increased. The US continues to impose sanctions on Iran, and Trump nominated Wash as the Fed Chairman, which caused market fluctuations. Domestically, over 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, showing overall stability [4]. - In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. At the raw material end, downstream enterprises continued to replenish stocks before the festival. Due to the Indonesian government's proposal to significantly cut coal production, many Indonesian coal mining enterprises have suspended spot coal exports [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector had a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling and coal and coke rising first and then falling [4]. 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, and non - ferrous metals had the largest decline [4]. 03 Spot Prices - Scrap steel prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [18]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The electric furnace profit worsened, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [19]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. However, the current absolute inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The recent weakness is mainly due to the weakening of cost support [5]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. Before the festival, the steel mill inventory has been replenished to a level slightly lower than the normal level in recent years. Although the iron ore shipments have significantly declined compared to the end of last year, according to the previous shipment data, the expected arrival volume is still acceptable, and iron ore may continue the inventory accumulation pattern [5]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, the raw coal output declined, the total coking coal inventory continued to accumulate, and coal - using enterprises continued to replenish stocks. However, the pre - festival stock replenishment is about to end. Attention should be paid to the Indonesian coal policy [5]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Last week, the coke output increased slightly, and the inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises improved [5]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar - iron ore price ratio strengthened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread widened [37]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple important events occurred, including high - level phone calls and video meetings between countries, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" central first - document, the determination of GDP growth targets by 30 provinces in China, US sanctions on Iran, changes in US economic data, the establishment of a key minerals trading mechanism by the US, EU's adjustment of carbon market rules, and the suspension of coal exports by Indonesian coal mining enterprises [42].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations for steel prices to decline as demand remains subdued and winter storage is nearly complete [4][6][17] - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5% [4][15] - The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 48.12%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 44.85 percentage points year-on-year [5][16] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons to 1,916,800 tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5,195,700 tons [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3,091,600 tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The total supply of five major steel products was 8,199,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory increased by 592,400 tons to 13,377,500 tons [5][16] Group 3 - The iron ore transaction volume at major ports was 792,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 19.7% [5][16] - The demand for construction materials decreased by 16.6% week-on-week, while plate consumption increased by 0.1% [5][16] - The market is expected to maintain a neutral price fluctuation pattern for ferroalloys, with supply remaining low and production profits improving slightly [9][20]

Report Summary - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1][2] - The core view of the report is that the GDP growth targets of local governments in 2026 are generally set to be lowered, showing a more pragmatic and cautious attitude towards economic growth. The target setting of Guangdong may indicate a possible change in the national GDP growth target [2] Overall Trend - In 2026, the GDP growth targets of 21 out of 31 provinces and municipalities have been lowered, accounting for 68%. Nine provinces and municipalities have kept their targets unchanged, and only one province (Jiangxi) has raised its target [5][6] - Many cities such as Guangdong and Shandong have added the statement of "striving for better results in actual work" [6] Regional Analysis - The regions with lowered targets are mostly concentrated in the western and northeastern regions. The three northeastern provinces have all lowered their targets, and the targets in 2026 are concentrated in the range of 4.5% - 5%. Many western provinces have also lowered their targets [8][9] - Tibet maintains a high - growth target of "above 7%", and Xinjiang sets a relatively high growth target of "5.5% - 6%", reflecting the particularity of their economic development stages and policy support [9] Economic Powerhouses - Economic powerhouses or key regions have generally lowered their targets and increased flexibility. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have slightly lowered their targets, while Shandong has remained unchanged, and Beijing and Shanghai have kept the same targets as last year [10] - Guangdong's GDP target setting is often consistent with the national GDP growth target. In 2026, Guangdong has set an interval target of "4.5% - 5%" again since 2019, which may indicate the possibility of setting an interval target for the national growth rate [10]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report indicates a target growth of around 5% for 2026 [4][16] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][16] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Steel Market Overview - On February 5, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 986,000 tons, a decrease of 4.6% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders dropped by 22.7% [5][17] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 39.39%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.2858 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6 tons [6][18] - Total supply of five major steel products is 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory increased by 4.6% to 13.3775 million tons [6][18] Group 4: Rebar and Hot Rolled Steel - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons. Demand has decreased significantly due to seasonal factors [7][19] - Hot rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons. The market is expected to continue experiencing narrow fluctuations as demand declines [8][20] Group 5: Alloy Market - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with overall supply remaining low and production changes being minimal. Demand from steel mills has slightly increased, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production [10][22]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report targets around 5% growth for 2026 [4][15] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][15] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][15] Group 3: Steel Industry Performance - On February 4, the national main port iron ore transactions reached 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 12.6% [5][16] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week and 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [5][16] - Total steel supply for the week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. Rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production rose by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons [5][16] Group 4: Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel Market - Rebar production saw a slight increase, totaling 1.9983 million tons, with total inventory rising by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons, indicating a seasonal weakness in the market [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production also increased slightly to 3.0921 million tons, with total inventory decreasing by 22,000 tons, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed [7][18] Group 5: Price Strategies - Short-term price ranges for rebar and hot-rolled steel are set at 3,080-3,200 CNY/ton and 3,250-3,350 CNY/ton, respectively [8][19] Group 6: Alloy Market Overview - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with supply remaining low and production changes minimal. Demand from steel mills is stable, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production concerns [9][20]