2024到2025年，消费圈出了个大怪事，最有钱的一线城市，消费增速竟然被全国大盘甩在了身后。 更离谱的，上海人忙着疯狂买衣服化妆品，北京人却在排队抢黄金，这两个超级大都市的数据直接走成了两个极端。 明明都是从不缺钱的大城市，怎么花起钱来差距能有这么大？ 2024到2025年这两年，中国的消费数据里出现了一个很奇怪的现象，要是单看社会消费品零售总额这个数字，一线城市反而成了拖后腿的。 更让人看不懂的是北京和上海这两个超级都市的表现竟然完全相反，这背后的原因首先得从两地人买东西的习惯说起。 翻看2025年1到11月的数据，北京和上海的钱流向了完全不同的地方。 上海人在面子工程上特别舍得花钱，买衣服的消费额是北京的6倍，买化妆品的钱是北京的4倍，全国卖掉的化妆品里，有三成是被上海这一个城市消化的。 北京那边的情况截然不同，北京的黄金珠宝消费量是上海的两倍，这说明北京人现在的消费心态更保守，更看重保值。 不过上海能从低谷里爬出来，靠的不仅仅是爱买化妆品，还有一大波外来的助力正在给上海的收银机疯狂输血。 上海这次能翻身，外地游客和外国游客帮了大忙，2025年因为签证政策放宽，大批外国游客涌入上海。 2025年前11个 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析很多人总觉得中国经济增长的难题在国外，比如贸易壁 垒、关税摩擦。 但 2024 年 1-11 月贸易顺差突破 1 万亿美元的亮眼数据，狠狠打脸了这个说法。 真正制约经济增长的核心矛盾，其实藏在国内，消费增速创下 35 年第三低，投资出现首次负增长，激 活内需才是推动经济持续向前的关键。 外贸韧性十足 即便面临贸易保护主义升温，中国外贸依然展现出强劲韧性，2024 年 1-11 月，按美元计价的贸易顺差 同比增速超过 20%，创下历史新高。 外贸企业早已开启多元化布局，把目光投向了 "一带一路" 国家和新兴市场。广州某电子科技企业负责 人陈俊铭透露，他们针对东南亚客户偏好，创新推出了高清便携数字播放器，今年前 11 个月对共建 "一带一路" 国家的订单同比增长超四成央视网。 宁波的一家新能源企业，将出口越南的储能电池重量减少 15%、体积缩小 25%，能量密度大幅提升，1- 10 月对东盟出口增长 50% 到 60%央视网。 这些案例都说明，外部市场需求依然旺盛，中国外贸的增长空间不在欧美，而在新兴市场的开拓。 消费增速疲软 和外贸的亮眼表现形成鲜明对比的是消费市场的乏 ...

国家统计局周一公布数据显示，11月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速较10月小幅回落1.6个百分点。1-11月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.0%。 往后看，王青表示，明年新能源汽车购置减免退坡，有可能刺激年底汽车销量增加，但短期内出台其他促消费政策的可能性已经不大，加之上年同期社零基 数抬高，预计12月社零同比增速会继续保持在低位。 经济学人智库高级经济学家徐天辰对智通财经表示，由于"国补"退坡，12月消费或难有明显增长。"十五五"把消费放到了比较重要的位置，2026年又是"十 五五"第一年，类似国补的刺激仍会继续，但更应当关注政府是否会深入推进促消费的长效机制。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对智通财经表示，后续消费恢复仍持续面临多重挑战，例如受高基数、乘数效用边际下降影响，以旧换新政策的拉动作用大概 率继续减弱。另外，内外需放缓将加大居民就业压力，导致"就业-收入-消费"不畅，制约消费能力改善空间；居民"多储蓄、少消费"行为模式短期难改，消 费意愿提升动力偏弱。 记者 辛圆 针对消费增速的继续回落，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，去年同期受"双11"活动提前等影响，社零基数偏低，但在今年"双 ...

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

Economic Overview - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 18,322.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3] - The economic performance of various districts showed stability, with some districts experiencing better growth in Q2 compared to Q1 [2][4] District Performance - The top three districts by GDP in the first half of 2025 are Nanshan District (4,980.06 billion yuan), Futian District (2,953.15 billion yuan), and Longgang District (2,809.67 billion yuan) [3] - Seven districts outperformed the city-wide GDP growth rate, with the highest growth in Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone (12.4%), Dapeng New District (8.7%), and Futian District (7.9%) [3] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size in Shenzhen grew by 4.3% year-on-year, slightly above the provincial average of 4.0% [5] - The Shenshan Special Cooperation Zone saw a significant industrial growth of 22.0%, driven mainly by the automotive manufacturing sector [5] - Nanshan District's industrial added value increased by 6.5%, reflecting a strong performance in high-tech industries [5] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Shenzhen reached 4,948.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7] - Nanshan District led in retail sales growth at 13.1%, while Bao'an District recorded a growth of 7.2% [7] - Various districts are actively promoting consumption through initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and hosting events [7][8] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.1% [8] - Five districts achieved positive growth in fixed asset investment, with Nanshan District leading at 6.5% [8] - Industrial technological transformation investment saw a remarkable increase of 47.1%, indicating a focus on industrial upgrading [8][9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly focusing on the economic performance in July 2025 and projections for the remainder of the year [1][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Slowdown**: In July, domestic growth momentum weakened significantly, with retail sales growth slowing to **3.7%** year-on-year, below market expectations [1][5]. 2. **Investment Decline**: Overall fixed asset investment decreased by **5.2%** year-on-year, with both infrastructure and manufacturing investments declining [1][10]. 3. **Real Estate Market**: Real estate activities continued to decline, with sales down **7.8%** year-on-year and new construction area down **15.4%** [6][26]. 4. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production growth fell to **5.7%** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output [1][12]. 5. **Export Recovery**: Despite a decline in exports to the US, overall export growth improved to **7.2%** year-on-year, supported by lower base effects [1][11]. 6. **Inflation Metrics**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate fell to **0%**, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by **3.6%** year-on-year [1][17]. 7. **Credit Market**: July saw a contraction in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years, with a reduction of **500 billion RMB**, indicating weak credit demand [1][18]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Policy Measures**: The government has introduced several support measures, including childcare subsidies and consumer loan interest subsidies, but the scale of these measures is expected to be moderate [3][32]. 2. **Future Challenges**: The economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued challenges in the real estate sector and consumer spending due to weak income growth and consumer confidence [2][27]. 3. **Trade Relations**: Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to prolong tariff uncertainties, which may negatively impact export growth in the coming months [22][24]. 4. **Government Stimulus**: Potential fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced in Q3 or Q4, depending on economic data trends, with a baseline GDP growth forecast of **4.7%** for 2025 [3][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it faces, and the government's response to these challenges.

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a marginal decline in consumer spending following the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a slowdown in consumption growth momentum [1] - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first five months of the year [1] - The retail sales of goods in June reached 37,580 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while catering revenue was 4,708 billion yuan, growing by only 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The chief economist of Caixin Financial Holdings, Wu Chaoming, believes that macro policies will enhance government support for consumption, which will be crucial for improving retail sales [3] - Despite the positive outlook, external adverse influences remain significant, and the recovery of private investment and consumer confidence may take time [3] - Economic expert Xu Tianchen anticipates a potential rebound in consumption growth after the temporary decline in June [3] Group 3 - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds in July is expected to provide funding for consumer subsidies, supporting retail in subsidized categories [4] - The Politburo meeting held at the end of April emphasized the importance of service consumption, with expectations for related policies to be introduced [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the macro - economic data continued the overall stability of 2025, but the recovery momentum still needed to be strengthened. The real GDP growth rate was stronger than the nominal GDP. The domestic economy showed strong resilience with robust industrial production and high - speed consumption, but also faced challenges such as weak price index, falling real estate sales growth, and declining export growth. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on the price index was higher than that on real GDP. Macro - policies were needed to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [2][34][35] Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month, but the Strength was Weak - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, showing a recovery in market demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The rebound of manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the domestic economic recovery momentum still needed to be enhanced [3][6] 2. In April, CPI Declined 0.1% Year - on - Year, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year, with Prices Remaining Depressed - In May 2025, the national CPI declined 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.6% year - on - year, with a slight rebound. The PPI declined 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer purchase price declined 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. The fall in global commodity prices such as crude oil dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [7][8][10] 3. In April, Exports Increased 8.1% Year - on - Year, and Imports Declined 0.2% Year - on - Year - In May 2025, the total import and export volume was 528.98 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 1.3%. Exports were 316.1 billion US dollars, up 4.8% year - on - year; imports were 212.88 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year - on - year; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars. Exports to the US declined 34.5% year - on - year, to the EU increased 12.0% year - on - year, to ASEAN countries increased 14.8% year - on - year, and to Japan increased 6.2% year - on - year. The high export growth in April might be related to "re - export trade" and "rush to export" by enterprises, while the decline in May might be due to the end of "rush to export and replenish inventory" by overseas enterprises. The export growth was expected to further decline in the second half of 2025 [12][14] 4. M1 Significantly Rebounded in May - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. In May, residents' short - term loans decreased by 208 million yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 746 million yuan. Enterprises' short - term loans increased by 1.1 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 746 million yuan. The M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.3%, and the M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.9%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 5.6%. The credit in May continued to be weak, but the M1 growth rate significantly rebounded [16][20][21] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth was High - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 4.1326 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%. The high - speed growth of consumption was due to consumption subsidies and trade - in policies. The consumption of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth. The investment in fixed assets continued to slow down, and the real estate development investment was still in a downward trend, but the decline was narrowing [22][23][25] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it had Conditions for Stabilization - From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate development enterprises all declined. The unsold area of commercial housing decreased slightly. Although the real estate market cooled in the second quarter, it was still in an improving trend. The year - on - year decline in sales area and volume was expected to further narrow. There was room for further strengthening of real estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle was emerging [28][30][33] 7. Summary and Outlook - The domestic economy showed strong resilience with stable industrial production and high - speed consumption growth, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. The main factors affecting the macro - economy and asset price repair were insufficient market demand and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies were needed to boost market confidence and expand effective demand, and the supply - side needed to be cleared. The macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [34][35]