abc Global Research 2025 年 08 月 18 日 中国经济透视 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，未来仍面临更多挑 战 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，尽管出口增长有所回升 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，低于市场预期。社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，以 旧换新补贴覆盖的消费品同比增速有所放缓。整体固定资产投资同比下 降5.2%，大幅弱于预期，基建和制造业投资均有所下降，部分受极端天气 影响。房地产活动进一步下行，且房价继续环比下跌；工业生产同比增速回 落至5.7%。另一方面，尽管对美出口降幅扩大，但整体出口同比增速回升 至 7.2%。CPI 同比增速小幅回落至0%，而 PPI 继续同比大幅下跌 3.6%。 新增人民币贷款收缩，为二十年来首次出现单月新增贷款收缩，但政府债券 发行强劲继续推动社融信贷同比增速小幅上升至9%。 预计2025年年内仍将面临更多挑战 7月增长走弱可能意味着此前部分对经济有利的支撑因素开始走弱或转向。 如果房地产去库存没有显著进展，我们仍然预计下半年房地产活动下行持 续。由于居民收入增长和消费者信心较弱，政府并未出台大规模新增刺激政 策，且去年9月以来消费品以旧换新补贴启动带来的高基数 ...

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a marginal decline in consumer spending following the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a slowdown in consumption growth momentum [1] - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first five months of the year [1] - The retail sales of goods in June reached 37,580 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while catering revenue was 4,708 billion yuan, growing by only 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The chief economist of Caixin Financial Holdings, Wu Chaoming, believes that macro policies will enhance government support for consumption, which will be crucial for improving retail sales [3] - Despite the positive outlook, external adverse influences remain significant, and the recovery of private investment and consumer confidence may take time [3] - Economic expert Xu Tianchen anticipates a potential rebound in consumption growth after the temporary decline in June [3] Group 3 - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds in July is expected to provide funding for consumer subsidies, supporting retail in subsidized categories [4] - The Politburo meeting held at the end of April emphasized the importance of service consumption, with expectations for related policies to be introduced [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the macro - economic data continued the overall stability of 2025, but the recovery momentum still needed to be strengthened. The real GDP growth rate was stronger than the nominal GDP. The domestic economy showed strong resilience with robust industrial production and high - speed consumption, but also faced challenges such as weak price index, falling real estate sales growth, and declining export growth. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on the price index was higher than that on real GDP. Macro - policies were needed to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [2][34][35] Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month, but the Strength was Weak - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, showing a recovery in market demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The rebound of manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the domestic economic recovery momentum still needed to be enhanced [3][6] 2. In April, CPI Declined 0.1% Year - on - Year, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year, with Prices Remaining Depressed - In May 2025, the national CPI declined 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.6% year - on - year, with a slight rebound. The PPI declined 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer purchase price declined 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. The fall in global commodity prices such as crude oil dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [7][8][10] 3. In April, Exports Increased 8.1% Year - on - Year, and Imports Declined 0.2% Year - on - Year - In May 2025, the total import and export volume was 528.98 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 1.3%. Exports were 316.1 billion US dollars, up 4.8% year - on - year; imports were 212.88 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year - on - year; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars. Exports to the US declined 34.5% year - on - year, to the EU increased 12.0% year - on - year, to ASEAN countries increased 14.8% year - on - year, and to Japan increased 6.2% year - on - year. The high export growth in April might be related to "re - export trade" and "rush to export" by enterprises, while the decline in May might be due to the end of "rush to export and replenish inventory" by overseas enterprises. The export growth was expected to further decline in the second half of 2025 [12][14] 4. M1 Significantly Rebounded in May - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. In May, residents' short - term loans decreased by 208 million yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 746 million yuan. Enterprises' short - term loans increased by 1.1 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 746 million yuan. The M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.3%, and the M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.9%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 5.6%. The credit in May continued to be weak, but the M1 growth rate significantly rebounded [16][20][21] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth was High - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 4.1326 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%. The high - speed growth of consumption was due to consumption subsidies and trade - in policies. The consumption of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth. The investment in fixed assets continued to slow down, and the real estate development investment was still in a downward trend, but the decline was narrowing [22][23][25] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it had Conditions for Stabilization - From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate development enterprises all declined. The unsold area of commercial housing decreased slightly. Although the real estate market cooled in the second quarter, it was still in an improving trend. The year - on - year decline in sales area and volume was expected to further narrow. There was room for further strengthening of real estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle was emerging [28][30][33] 7. Summary and Outlook - The domestic economy showed strong resilience with stable industrial production and high - speed consumption growth, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. The main factors affecting the macro - economy and asset price repair were insufficient market demand and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies were needed to boost market confidence and expand effective demand, and the supply - side needed to be cleared. The macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [34][35]