1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the natural rubber futures price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a slow rise in the center. The supply growth rate of the global rubber market will slow down, but the increase in raw material prices may stimulate the existing tapping intensity. Emerging production areas such as Côte d'Ivoire may offset part of the production reduction in major producing countries. On the demand side, domestic industrial policies are expected to support the demand for matching tires, but external demand faces challenges [51]. - The overall trend of synthetic rubber is expected to be weaker than that of natural rubber. Under the pressure of falling costs and ample supply, the market may continue the weak pattern [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the rubber futures market fluctuated widely throughout the year. In early April, it fell sharply due to the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff". At the beginning of the year, tight supply pushed the price to the annual high. As the macro - impact faded, supply and demand became the dominant factors, and the market mainly oscillated due to the lack of prominent contradictions [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Price**: In 2025, the raw material price fluctuated within a range. In the first half of the year, the expected increase in global supply and the US tariff policy led to a decline in the price of rubber latex. In the second half of the year, weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia stabilized the raw material price. In 2026, the supply elasticity of major producing countries is expected to decrease, and abnormal weather and geopolitical conflicts may still affect short - term supply [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the ANRPC report, in 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production and consumption [10]. - **Import**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative import volume of natural rubber reached 5.8716 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.98%. Côte d'Ivoire has become an important import source. In 2026, the supply elasticity of traditional producing areas is expected to decrease, but emerging areas may make up for part of the shortfall [13]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, the natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal pattern. By December 19, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade inventory, and social inventory all increased compared with the same period last year. In 2026, the inventory may continue to fluctuate cyclically, and the overall pressure may decrease [21]. 3.2.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Supply**: In recent years, the production capacity of the private cis - butadiene rubber industry has gradually increased. As of June 2025, the production capacity in China reached 2.072 million tons per year. In 2025, the output from January to November increased by 25.03% year - on - year. In 2026, new production capacity is expected to be released, but the growth rate may decline [27]. - **Raw Material**: Butadiene, the main raw material of cis - butadiene rubber, had a large - scale production capacity release in 2025, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure will still exist but slow down [28][29]. - **Export**: In 2025, China changed from a net importer to a net exporter of cis - butadiene rubber. The export destinations are highly concentrated in Southeast Asia. This trend is expected to continue in 2026 [33]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, the inventory center of cis - butadiene rubber in sample factories and traders moved up. In 2026, the inventory center may continue to move up slowly under the pattern of "both supply and demand increasing" [36]. 3.2.3 Tires - **All - steel Tires**: By the end of November 2025, the factory inventory of all - steel tires decreased by 2.39% year - on - year, while the social inventory increased by 6.69% year - on - year. The actual output is restricted by effective demand, and future output growth depends on the recovery of domestic terminal demand [37]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: Due to large - scale capacity expansion from 2023 to 2024, the inventory of semi - steel tires increased significantly in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In 2026, the upward space of capacity utilization rate is limited. The export performance of semi - steel tires is worse than that of all - steel tires, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation will continue to suppress the export volume in 2026 [41][45]. 3.3 EUDR Policy Situation - The EUDR policy has clear implementation time for different types of enterprises, simplifies the process for small and micro operators, and requires the EU Commission to conduct an impact assessment. The direct impact on natural rubber is a significant increase in compliance costs [48]. - The EU Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) was originally planned to be implemented in December 2024 but was postponed. In November 2025, the EU Council passed the revision authorization and started the negotiation process with the European Parliament [49]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, pay attention to the weather conditions in natural rubber producing areas and the monetary policies of major overseas economies and the degree of global trade frictions, which may change market risk preferences and demand expectations [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for long positions is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low inventory at the exchange also supports long positions. The main reasons for short positions are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - adding policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The EU's Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) postponement will lead to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, with the expiration of rubber warehouse receipts, an expected 10 - 110,000 tons will be out of storage, significantly reducing the rubber inventory and warehouse receipts at the exchange. Low inventory is likely to attract long - position attention. [10] - On November 28th, news reported that the EUDR was officially postponed, which is judged as a negative for demand. [10] - Thailand's rubber exports increased significantly year - on - year in October, exceeding market expectations, which is judged as a negative for supply. [10] - On December 5th, 2025, the market expected interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, which is positive for demand expectations. [10] - There will be continuous heavy rainfall in the main production areas of Thailand in mid - December. [10] - There are opportunities for short - term long - position trading in bands. [10] - December is still a season with relatively high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - The trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended cycle. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. [52] - The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan. [52] - The cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases. [52] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and was below the farmers' cost for a long time. [26] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. [30] - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 of 2020. [33] 3.4 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹, iron ore, Shanghai Composite Index, and ChiNext Index are generally normal, with no special or notable values. [41][44][48] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 63.5% (0.17%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the expectation has weakened. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the future is expected to gradually recover, which affects the supporting tires. [61] - The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly. [64] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values. [69][73][76][79][83][86][89][93][97] - In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - In September 2025, rubber exports were 864,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.61% and a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. The cumulative exports were 7,151,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. [100] - In September 2025, rubber consumption was 921,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08% and a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The cumulative consumption was 8,186,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. [100] 3.7 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - The total production capacity of butadiene in 2025 increased by 16% compared to 2024, with a total increase of 1.13 million tons. [18] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase supply, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The high import expectation of butadiene also exacerbates the weakness of its price. [18] - The operating conditions of various butadiene production plants are detailed, including start - up, shutdown, and production recovery times. [16] - The weekly average operating load of butadiene - related enterprises is 71.05%. [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the EU EUDR policy may increase the cost of issuing various certificates required by the act for natural rubber-related entities, which may push up the global cost center of natural rubber, but the effect depends on the matching degree between the supply of EUDR rubber and the demand of the European market [2][41][48] - The certification process for natural rubber suppliers to enter the European market involves multiple steps and brings uncertainty, which will lead to changes in the future trade flow of natural rubber [2][41][48] - After two years of adaptation, it is difficult to reproduce last year's market this year. Although European traders' procurement rhythm was slow in the early stage of this year, the clarification of the policy implementation time may boost their procurement willingness later, but the impact on natural rubber prices may be limited [3][42][51] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. EUDR Policy Review EUDR Policy Content and Development Process - The EUDR policy aims to ensure that specific commodities in the EU market are not produced through deforestation or forest degradation, covering 7 categories of commodities including rubber. Entities need to fulfill three core obligations: no deforestation, legality, and due diligence. Non - compliance will result in penalties [10][11] - The policy officially took effect on June 29, 2023, with an 18 - month transition period. After multiple adjustments, it will be implemented for large companies on December 30, 2025, and for micro and small enterprises on June 30, 2026 [11][12] EUDR Rule Points - The definitions of "deforestation" and "forest degradation" need to be clarified. EUDR requires companies to prove forest recovery after logging and provide corresponding evidence, which incurs time, labor, and material costs [13] - All operators must submit a due - diligence statement (DDS) for each batch of relevant products entering the EU market, including basic information, product information, source information, risk assessment, and compliance statements [14][15] 2. Export Characteristics of Natural Rubber Producing Countries since the Introduction of the EUDR Policy - In 2024, due to the expected implementation of the EUDR policy, European traders increased their procurement in advance, leading to an increase in the exports of natural rubber producing countries to non - Chinese markets. The trade flow of natural rubber changed microscopically [16] - In 2024, Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire were more active in EUDR certification. Some Thai standard rubber flowed to Europe, squeezing the volume to China. EUDR natural rubber had a price premium of up to over 200 dollars/ton compared to non - EUDR rubber [16][20] - In 2024, the raw material price in Thailand was the highest in recent years, due to the high premium of EUDR rubber and limited raw material output caused by heavy rainfall [21][23][49] - In 2024, the absolute and incremental exports of natural rubber to the EU from Côte d'Ivoire were the highest, while China's imports from Côte d'Ivoire decreased significantly [25] - In 2024, Indonesia's exports to China and the world slowed down, mainly due to a decline in production. In 2025, due to the widening price difference between Thai and Indonesian standards and the slowdown in demand in Europe and the United States, Indonesian rubber flowed back to China [26][29] - In 2024, Vietnam's production increased, and the increase in exports to non - Chinese markets matched the production growth [34] 3. Current Situation of European Natural Rubber and Tire Imports - In 2024, the EU's natural rubber imports increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.4%, reaching peaks in April and November. The import volume from Thailand, Vietnam, Côte d'Ivoire, and Malaysia increased, while that from Indonesia decreased [43][44] - In 2024, the EU's tire imports rebounded significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.44%. 40% of the imports came from China, and the import volume from Vietnam increased the most [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the rubber sector are weak. The sharp rise in the rubber sector on Thursday was likely due to macro - factors as its ranking in commodities did not significantly improve after the rise. The rumored reasons such as smoke sheet rubber storage and Southeast Asian rainstorms did not match the time and data, and the early implementation of EUDR is unlikely [3]. - From the perspective of synthetic rubber, the high - frequency data of the upstream and downstream are favorable. The BR - RU spread continued to strengthen this week, and there is a better safety margin for relatively long - BR in July [3]. - Analyzing the import, inventory, and downstream automobile tire consumption data of natural rubber, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thailand Rainfall and Rubber - Thailand's daily - average weighted rainfall decreased month - on - month to 4.49mm/day. The average rainfall in the past 9 months increased by +1.91mm/day year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 3 consecutive months. The decrease in rainfall did not lead to a monthly - level increase in rainfall [9]. - The spread between Thailand's smoked sheet rubber and standard rubber decreased month - on - month to +533 dollars/ton. The average premium in the past 12 months increased by +31.0% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 9 consecutive months [9]. 3.2 Thailand Glue and Cup Lumps - The spread between Thailand's cup lumps and glue strengthened month - on - month to - 6.70 Thai baht/kg. The average value in the past 12 months strengthened by +2.56 Thai baht/kg year - on - year, and it has been strengthening marginally for 8 consecutive months, which is bearish for RU unilateral [15]. 3.3 EUDR - EUDR is unlikely to be implemented ahead of schedule under the background of the decline of environmental protection in Europe. Policy adjustments, industry and economic resistance, and political and social factors have all led to the obstruction of environmental protection policies [18][19]. 3.4 Rubber Valuation - The position of rubber valuation in commodities has only slightly increased. After the sharp rise on Thursday, the ranking of the rubber sector in commodities did not change significantly [3][20]. 3.5 Rubber Production - In May, the output of the rubber alliance increased month - on - month to 767,000 tons, but decreased by - 3.2% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 4 consecutive months. In the long term, when the output of natural rubber is high, it is relatively weak compared to synthetic rubber, and vice versa. The current situation is bearish for the BR - RU spread and relatively bullish for RU [25]. 3.6 Crude Oil - As of July, Brent crude oil was at 68.3 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of - 20.5%. Crude oil is still in a weakening trend. The cycle of crude oil's influence on the strength of rubber unilateral is about 2 years, and about 1 year for synthetic rubber. The current stabilization of crude oil has little driving effect on the unilateral, and is more favorable for the long - BR and short - RU spread [28]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 68.9%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +4.4% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 2 consecutive weeks. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 65.5%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +8.5% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive weeks. The domestic butadiene port inventory increased month - on - month to 23,600 tons, and the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increased by +4,700 tons year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 3 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories was 32,800 tons, and the 5 - week average inventory increased by +10,000 tons year - on - year, with the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months. The supply and balance of butadiene and butadiene rubber were tight this week [36]. 3.8 Tire Consumption - As of last Friday, the overall tire production and inventory balance data were satisfactory. The domestic all - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 64.6%. The average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increased by +3.9% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 7 consecutive weeks. The all - steel tire finished product inventory increased by 1 day month - on - month to 41 days, and the 24 - week average inventory decreased by - 1.6% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 51 consecutive weeks. The domestic semi - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 72.9%. The average operating rate in the past 24 weeks decreased by - 2.3% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 5 consecutive weeks. The semi - steel tire product inventory remained flat month - on - month at 46 days, and the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increased by +36.5% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 7 consecutive weeks [46]. 3.9 Automobile Production - In May, China's truck production decreased month - on - month to 292,000 vehicles; in March, Japan's truck production increased month - on - month to 96,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's truck production remained flat at 17,000 vehicles. The combined output was 405,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +3.0%, and the 12 - month cumulative value decreased by - 14.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months. In May, China's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 2.133 million vehicles; in March, Japan's passenger car production decreased month - on - month to 618,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 360,000 vehicles. The combined output was 3.291 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +8.5%, and the 12 - month cumulative output decreased by - 4.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months, which is bullish for RU unilateral. The automobile industries of China, Japan, and South Korea have been recovering marginally for 4 consecutive months, but it is still early for them to become an obvious driving force for the unilateral [53]. 3.10 NR Month - Spread - As of July, the average daily open interest of the NR contract was equivalent to 1.1787 million tons, the warehouse receipt volume was 32,100 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio was 36.06 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the destocking of warehouse receipts in the later period. From the long - term relationship, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (near - month weakening). Attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [58]. 3.11 Mixed Basis - In May, the total import volume of standard rubber and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia was 321,600 tons, with a consecutive 2 - month month - on - month decrease. The average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with marginal increases for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for mixed rubber. Analyzing various data, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [62].