期待需求的利多 橡胶月报 2025/12/05 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 期待需求（政策）利多期间胶价的表现 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 11月28日新闻，EUDR正式推迟。判断为需求利空。 ◆ 泰国橡胶出口10月同比增加明显，（雨季一般出口持平或者小增），超出市场的预期。判断为供应利空。 ◆ 20251205市场有降息降准的预期，利多需求预期。 ◆ 12月中旬泰国主产区有连续比较大的降雨。 ◆ 择机波段短多机会。 ◆ 12月仍然处于冬储等需求偏多的季节，没到供需边际走差的季节。 前期行情影响因素： 确认EUDR推迟1年，需求利空 ◆ 2025年9月23日消息，EUDR生效时间再度推迟。 ◆ 据艾科森环境技术消息，欧盟委员会希望再次推迟欧盟的反森林砍伐法， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the EU EUDR policy may increase the cost of issuing various certificates required by the act for natural rubber-related entities, which may push up the global cost center of natural rubber, but the effect depends on the matching degree between the supply of EUDR rubber and the demand of the European market [2][41][48] - The certification process for natural rubber suppliers to enter the European market involves multiple steps and brings uncertainty, which will lead to changes in the future trade flow of natural rubber [2][41][48] - After two years of adaptation, it is difficult to reproduce last year's market this year. Although European traders' procurement rhythm was slow in the early stage of this year, the clarification of the policy implementation time may boost their procurement willingness later, but the impact on natural rubber prices may be limited [3][42][51] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. EUDR Policy Review EUDR Policy Content and Development Process - The EUDR policy aims to ensure that specific commodities in the EU market are not produced through deforestation or forest degradation, covering 7 categories of commodities including rubber. Entities need to fulfill three core obligations: no deforestation, legality, and due diligence. Non - compliance will result in penalties [10][11] - The policy officially took effect on June 29, 2023, with an 18 - month transition period. After multiple adjustments, it will be implemented for large companies on December 30, 2025, and for micro and small enterprises on June 30, 2026 [11][12] EUDR Rule Points - The definitions of "deforestation" and "forest degradation" need to be clarified. EUDR requires companies to prove forest recovery after logging and provide corresponding evidence, which incurs time, labor, and material costs [13] - All operators must submit a due - diligence statement (DDS) for each batch of relevant products entering the EU market, including basic information, product information, source information, risk assessment, and compliance statements [14][15] 2. Export Characteristics of Natural Rubber Producing Countries since the Introduction of the EUDR Policy - In 2024, due to the expected implementation of the EUDR policy, European traders increased their procurement in advance, leading to an increase in the exports of natural rubber producing countries to non - Chinese markets. The trade flow of natural rubber changed microscopically [16] - In 2024, Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire were more active in EUDR certification. Some Thai standard rubber flowed to Europe, squeezing the volume to China. EUDR natural rubber had a price premium of up to over 200 dollars/ton compared to non - EUDR rubber [16][20] - In 2024, the raw material price in Thailand was the highest in recent years, due to the high premium of EUDR rubber and limited raw material output caused by heavy rainfall [21][23][49] - In 2024, the absolute and incremental exports of natural rubber to the EU from Côte d'Ivoire were the highest, while China's imports from Côte d'Ivoire decreased significantly [25] - In 2024, Indonesia's exports to China and the world slowed down, mainly due to a decline in production. In 2025, due to the widening price difference between Thai and Indonesian standards and the slowdown in demand in Europe and the United States, Indonesian rubber flowed back to China [26][29] - In 2024, Vietnam's production increased, and the increase in exports to non - Chinese markets matched the production growth [34] 3. Current Situation of European Natural Rubber and Tire Imports - In 2024, the EU's natural rubber imports increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.4%, reaching peaks in April and November. The import volume from Thailand, Vietnam, Côte d'Ivoire, and Malaysia increased, while that from Indonesia decreased [43][44] - In 2024, the EU's tire imports rebounded significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 16.44%. 40% of the imports came from China, and the import volume from Vietnam increased the most [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the rubber sector are weak. The sharp rise in the rubber sector on Thursday was likely due to macro - factors as its ranking in commodities did not significantly improve after the rise. The rumored reasons such as smoke sheet rubber storage and Southeast Asian rainstorms did not match the time and data, and the early implementation of EUDR is unlikely [3]. - From the perspective of synthetic rubber, the high - frequency data of the upstream and downstream are favorable. The BR - RU spread continued to strengthen this week, and there is a better safety margin for relatively long - BR in July [3]. - Analyzing the import, inventory, and downstream automobile tire consumption data of natural rubber, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thailand Rainfall and Rubber - Thailand's daily - average weighted rainfall decreased month - on - month to 4.49mm/day. The average rainfall in the past 9 months increased by +1.91mm/day year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 3 consecutive months. The decrease in rainfall did not lead to a monthly - level increase in rainfall [9]. - The spread between Thailand's smoked sheet rubber and standard rubber decreased month - on - month to +533 dollars/ton. The average premium in the past 12 months increased by +31.0% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 9 consecutive months [9]. 3.2 Thailand Glue and Cup Lumps - The spread between Thailand's cup lumps and glue strengthened month - on - month to - 6.70 Thai baht/kg. The average value in the past 12 months strengthened by +2.56 Thai baht/kg year - on - year, and it has been strengthening marginally for 8 consecutive months, which is bearish for RU unilateral [15]. 3.3 EUDR - EUDR is unlikely to be implemented ahead of schedule under the background of the decline of environmental protection in Europe. Policy adjustments, industry and economic resistance, and political and social factors have all led to the obstruction of environmental protection policies [18][19]. 3.4 Rubber Valuation - The position of rubber valuation in commodities has only slightly increased. After the sharp rise on Thursday, the ranking of the rubber sector in commodities did not change significantly [3][20]. 3.5 Rubber Production - In May, the output of the rubber alliance increased month - on - month to 767,000 tons, but decreased by - 3.2% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 4 consecutive months. In the long term, when the output of natural rubber is high, it is relatively weak compared to synthetic rubber, and vice versa. The current situation is bearish for the BR - RU spread and relatively bullish for RU [25]. 3.6 Crude Oil - As of July, Brent crude oil was at 68.3 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of - 20.5%. Crude oil is still in a weakening trend. The cycle of crude oil's influence on the strength of rubber unilateral is about 2 years, and about 1 year for synthetic rubber. The current stabilization of crude oil has little driving effect on the unilateral, and is more favorable for the long - BR and short - RU spread [28]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 68.9%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +4.4% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 2 consecutive weeks. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 65.5%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +8.5% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive weeks. The domestic butadiene port inventory increased month - on - month to 23,600 tons, and the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increased by +4,700 tons year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 3 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories was 32,800 tons, and the 5 - week average inventory increased by +10,000 tons year - on - year, with the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months. The supply and balance of butadiene and butadiene rubber were tight this week [36]. 3.8 Tire Consumption - As of last Friday, the overall tire production and inventory balance data were satisfactory. The domestic all - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 64.6%. The average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increased by +3.9% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 7 consecutive weeks. The all - steel tire finished product inventory increased by 1 day month - on - month to 41 days, and the 24 - week average inventory decreased by - 1.6% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 51 consecutive weeks. The domestic semi - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 72.9%. The average operating rate in the past 24 weeks decreased by - 2.3% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 5 consecutive weeks. The semi - steel tire product inventory remained flat month - on - month at 46 days, and the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increased by +36.5% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 7 consecutive weeks [46]. 3.9 Automobile Production - In May, China's truck production decreased month - on - month to 292,000 vehicles; in March, Japan's truck production increased month - on - month to 96,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's truck production remained flat at 17,000 vehicles. The combined output was 405,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +3.0%, and the 12 - month cumulative value decreased by - 14.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months. In May, China's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 2.133 million vehicles; in March, Japan's passenger car production decreased month - on - month to 618,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 360,000 vehicles. The combined output was 3.291 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +8.5%, and the 12 - month cumulative output decreased by - 4.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months, which is bullish for RU unilateral. The automobile industries of China, Japan, and South Korea have been recovering marginally for 4 consecutive months, but it is still early for them to become an obvious driving force for the unilateral [53]. 3.10 NR Month - Spread - As of July, the average daily open interest of the NR contract was equivalent to 1.1787 million tons, the warehouse receipt volume was 32,100 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio was 36.06 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the destocking of warehouse receipts in the later period. From the long - term relationship, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (near - month weakening). Attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [58]. 3.11 Mixed Basis - In May, the total import volume of standard rubber and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia was 321,600 tons, with a consecutive 2 - month month - on - month decrease. The average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with marginal increases for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for mixed rubber. Analyzing various data, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [62].