生物医药 2026 年度策略：十年创新，踏出海征程 20251217 摘要 2025 年 CXO 和化学制药板块表现突出，基金持仓集中度提升。诊疗端 需求稳定，医保基金结存率显著回升，控费效果明显。商保创新药目录 发布为医药行业带来新的支付增量。 2025 年前三季度 license out 交易金额达 920 亿美元，同比增长超一 倍，表明国内创新药受到海外认可。港股 IPO 回暖带动一级市场投融资 回升，多家医药企业上市。 2026 年医药行业关注创新，重点关注 IO 双抗和 GLP-1 两大主线。康方 生物 PD-1/VEGF 双抗 AK112 研发进度领先，多个关键临床数据将在明 年更新。 双抗领域备受关注，康方生物 AK112 等产品积极推进出海，并围绕非 小细胞肺癌等适应症开展全球三期临床试验，将成为明年的重要催化剂。 IO 加 ADC 是未来发展方向。科伦博泰 SKB264 在全球开展多项临床三 期试验，与默沙东 Keytruda 联合使用，有望重新定义 IO 加 ADC 治疗 格局。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）医药行业整体表现如何？有哪些重要的边际变化？ 今年（2025 年），医药行业整体估 ...

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in innovative products, with clear domestic demand and significant potential for international expansion [4][14][25] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in innovative drugs and their supply chains, with a notable performance from CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals [9][15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation as the primary solution to industry challenges, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [26][32][41] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector has faced revenue declines, with a 0.9% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and net profit down by 2.2% [15][16] - The innovative drug sector has outperformed, with CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals showing net profit growth of 31.0% and 16.6% respectively [17][18] - The overall market is characterized by low fund holdings and historical valuation bottoms, indicating high investment value [20][25] Demand and Payment Dynamics - The demand for healthcare services is steadily increasing, with a projected 5% growth in total medical visits and hospital admissions in 2024 [26][28] - The aging population is expected to drive long-term demand, with 220 million people aged 65 and above by 2050 [28][30] - The medical insurance fund's income growth has outpaced expenditure growth, leading to a significant increase in fund reserves [32][36] Financing and Market Trends - The IPO market for healthcare has rebounded, with 28 IPOs in the first three quarters of 2025, a 100% increase from the previous year [42][43] - License-out transactions have surged, with transaction numbers increasing by 41% and total amounts reaching $92 billion, indicating a robust market for innovative drug licensing [48][50] - The number of IND applications and new clinical trials for innovative drugs has been steadily increasing, with a notable rise in NDA approvals [53][57] Technological Advancements - The report highlights the emergence of new technologies such as ADC and small nucleic acids, with domestic companies leading in these areas [60] - The focus on dual antibodies and GLP-1 drugs is expected to drive significant growth, with multiple development directions emerging [9][60] - The report notes that domestic companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative capabilities, particularly in the ADC space [60]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a breakthrough in global competitiveness, with the Hong Kong innovative drug index valuation returning to historical median levels, although companies like Innovent and CanSino still have market values significantly lower than international peers, indicating substantial growth potential [1][2][3] - The proportion of clinical trials conducted by Chinese innovative drug companies globally is rapidly increasing, expected to reach 30% by 2024, with the number of new active substances approved surpassing Japan, showcasing enhanced R&D capabilities [1][4] Market Dynamics - The license-out transaction volume for Chinese innovative drugs has significantly increased, with upfront payments totaling $3.3 billion and total transaction amounts reaching $48 billion in the first half of 2025, with Chinese projects accounting for 42% of U.S. collaboration projects [1][4] - Multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) are under pressure from patent cliffs and are keen to collaborate with Chinese companies, particularly in oncology, immunology, and metabolism sectors [1][5] Company-Specific Insights - Major Chinese companies like BeiGene and Innovent are expected to achieve profitability, with their market valuations currently low compared to their sales potential, which could reach billions of dollars [2][3] - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is rapidly growing, with domestic ADC assets showing excellent potential, as multiple companies are launching new drugs targeting different indications [2][15] Future Outlook - A number of Chinese innovative drug companies are projected to enter the global top 30 within the next few years, with domestic sales currently at 11%, significantly lower than the U.S. market's 79% [3] - The innovative drug industry in China is entering a new development cycle driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs, and accelerated internationalization [2][24] Investment Opportunities - Investment focus should be on companies driven by overseas sales, those with significant upcoming data readouts, and those with potential blockbuster expectations [2][26] - The global ADC market is expected to grow from over $10 billion in 2023 to nearly $13 billion in 2024, with significant potential for replacing existing therapies [15] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape in the metabolism sector is evolving, with Chinese companies transitioning from followers to leaders due to their speed and chemical advantages [14] - Companies like Innovent and CanSino are making strides in the dual antibody and GLP-1 weight loss fields, with promising data emerging from their clinical trials [13][14] Conclusion - The Chinese innovative drug sector is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing global competitiveness, supportive policies, and a strong pipeline of innovative products. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong international collaboration potential and those that are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market trends [2][24][26]

Group 1 - The company signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, granting Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for development, production, and commercialization, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion [1] - The $1.25 billion upfront payment sets a record for Chinese innovative drug licensing out, indicating strong market validation for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody sector [1] - The clinical development speed of SSGJ707 in the U.S. is expected to be rapid due to Pfizer's robust clinical development platform and commercialization system [1] Group 2 - The company has four mid-to-late stage clinical assets (IL17, IL1β, IL4R, IL5 monoclonal antibodies), each projected to generate over $1 billion in revenue, with IL17 expected to commercialize in 2025 [2] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, estimating revenues of 10.201 billion, 11.494 billion, and 13.153 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.7%, and 14.4% respectively [2] - The company anticipates net profit growth during the same period, projecting net profits of 2.345 billion, 2.648 billion, and 3.027 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.2%, 12.9%, and 14.3% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, granting Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for development, production, and commercialization, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1] - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing expectations for IO dual antibodies as alternatives to PD1 [2] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth from its main business, with several late-stage clinical assets projected to generate significant sales [2] Company Developments - The upfront payment of $1.25 billion is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license out, setting a new record [1] - The company retains a 30% stake in the SSGJ707 project, indicating a strong interest in its future success [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic autoimmune field, with robust R&D capabilities and a pipeline of clinical assets nearing commercialization [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.37 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 300 million, 333 million, and 416 million yuan [3] - The company is anticipated to commercialize its IL17 monoclonal antibody by 2025 and submit an NDA for its IL1β monoclonal antibody in the same year, targeting a market with limited competition [2][3]