当前中国创新药行业的估值水平如何？未来可能有多大空间？ 从年初至今，港股创新药指数上涨了 69%。本轮收益的主要驱动因素是中国创 新药全球竞争力的突破、对外授权的爆发以及多个重磅产品即将在美国上市销 售。国内政策环境也较为支持，百济神州、信达生物等头部公司将走向盈利。 目前港股创新药指数的 PS 和 PB 均回到了历史中位数水平左右，而恒生医疗保 健指数虽然 PS 有所回升，但仍处于历史底部区间。 对比海外情况，礼来公司 的 PS 从 2021 年的 5 倍提升到现在的 15 倍，日本中外制药从 2013 年的 4 倍 提升到现在的 11 倍。因此，我们认为中国创新药目前处于全球竞争力突破时 点，PS 显著提升是必然趋势。目前 ARJEX 市值约为 330 亿美元，而百济神州 市值约为 290 亿美元，相对较低。其他如信达、康方、科伦博泰、百利天恒、 新诺威等公司，其产品具有百亿美金销售潜力，但当前市值仍显著低于 ARJEX。 考虑到中国创新药企收入快速增长及海外市场拓展空间，未来 5-10 全球 ADC 市场快速增长，国内 ADC 资产展现出出色潜力，多家公司针 对不同靶点推出新药并陆续出海，如科伦博泰的 ...

Group 1 - The company signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, granting Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for development, production, and commercialization, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion [1] - The $1.25 billion upfront payment sets a record for Chinese innovative drug licensing out, indicating strong market validation for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody sector [1] - The clinical development speed of SSGJ707 in the U.S. is expected to be rapid due to Pfizer's robust clinical development platform and commercialization system [1] Group 2 - The company has four mid-to-late stage clinical assets (IL17, IL1β, IL4R, IL5 monoclonal antibodies), each projected to generate over $1 billion in revenue, with IL17 expected to commercialize in 2025 [2] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, estimating revenues of 10.201 billion, 11.494 billion, and 13.153 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.7%, and 14.4% respectively [2] - The company anticipates net profit growth during the same period, projecting net profits of 2.345 billion, 2.648 billion, and 3.027 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.2%, 12.9%, and 14.3% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, granting Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for development, production, and commercialization, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1] - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing expectations for IO dual antibodies as alternatives to PD1 [2] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth from its main business, with several late-stage clinical assets projected to generate significant sales [2] Company Developments - The upfront payment of $1.25 billion is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license out, setting a new record [1] - The company retains a 30% stake in the SSGJ707 project, indicating a strong interest in its future success [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic autoimmune field, with robust R&D capabilities and a pipeline of clinical assets nearing commercialization [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.37 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 300 million, 333 million, and 416 million yuan [3] - The company is anticipated to commercialize its IL17 monoclonal antibody by 2025 and submit an NDA for its IL1β monoclonal antibody in the same year, targeting a market with limited competition [2][3]

2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业走势图 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 生物制品 沪深300 相关研究报告 生物制品 《重症肌无力：生物制剂打开治疗新 格局，AAN2025 泰它西普重磅 III 期 数 据 即 将 读 出 — 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 -2025.4.1 《DLL3：SCLC 高表达明星靶点，多 款国产新药未来可期 —行业深度报 告》-2024.12.30 《双抗&CAR-T：新一代 BCDT 疗法 新星，进军千亿自免蓝海市场—行业 深度报告》-2024.12.7 小细胞肺癌：中国管线全球领先，研发聚焦三大新领域 ——行业深度报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 汪晋（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | wangjin3@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525010002 | 证书编号：S0790123050 ...

执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 康方生物 PD1/VEGF 双抗研发成果，点燃全 球双抗热情 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 27 日 证券分析师 朱国广 行业走势 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/4/29 2024/8/27 2024/12/25 2025/4/24 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《七部门印发《医药工业数智化转型 实施方案》，鼓励 AI+医疗进一步融 合》 2025-04-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 29 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为 1.2%、-0.3%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为 0.8%、3.5%；本周、年初至今 H 股生物科技指数涨 跌幅分别为 9%、30%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢 7%、18.5%；本周 A 股原料药（+4.7%）、医疗服务（+3.4%）、化药（+2.7%）及医疗器械（+0. ...