Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply and demand for PX and PTA are expected to marginally improve this year, with the PX-naphtha price spread stabilizing around $300/ton and potentially strengthening after the holiday [2][3] - The oil and petrochemical index showed a slight decline of 0.82% in the last week before the Spring Festival, while the engineering services sector performed best within the oil and petrochemical industry, with a rise of 1.51% [2][3] - Crude oil prices have increased due to a decrease in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, indicating a positive trend for upstream assets if geopolitical factors provide further oil price premiums [2][3] Group 2 - Polyester filament prices have risen, although the inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show mixed trends, with a decline in weaving machine operating rates [2] - In the olefins sector, sample PE spot prices have decreased, and petrochemical inventories of polyolefins have increased, indicating potential challenges in this segment [2] - The focus on PTA's progress in reducing internal competition and PX profit recovery could benefit polyester filament if successful [4]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, leading to a premium on crude oil prices. The supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA are expected to improve marginally this year. The PX (China main port) to naphtha (Japan) price spread has stabilized around $300/ton, with potential for strengthening post-holiday [2] - In the last week before the Spring Festival, the oil and petrochemical index performed moderately, with a decrease of 0.82% compared to the previous week. Among the sub-sectors, engineering services showed the best performance within oil and petrochemicals, with a rise of 1.51% [5][3] - Crude oil prices have increased, with US crude oil and gasoline inventories declining [6][10] - Polyester filament prices have risen, although the inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show mixed trends, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][17] - In the olefins sector, sample PE spot prices have decreased, and petrochemical inventories of polyolefins have increased [22][25] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have risen, with Brent crude futures closing at $69.47/barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase from February 6 [7] - US crude oil inventories decreased by 19,080 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories saw a slight increase of 891 thousand barrels [12] Polyester - The prices of polyester filaments have increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices reported at 7030, 8150, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases of 177, 197, and 197 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [15] - Inventory days for FDY, DTY, and POY are 17.5, 21.0, and 11.5 days respectively, with weaving machine operating rates decreasing by 4.4% and downstream weaving machine rates decreasing by 10.7% [18] Olefins - Sample PE spot prices have decreased to 7110 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.14% from the previous week [25] - Petrochemical inventories of polyolefins have increased by 15,000 tons, totaling 440,000 tons [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The PX market continues to be strong, driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. Current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers: the decline in gasoline blending profit has made the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has widened to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, significantly improving PX production economics. South Korean factories are expected to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have had a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories have advanced overhauls and are selling PTA raw materials, and the basis has weakened rapidly [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4960 to 4970, PTA closing price rose from 5018 to 5030, MEG inner - market price dropped from 3665 to 3637, and MEG closing price decreased from 3796 to 3755. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6405 to 6450, short - fiber basis rose from 57 to 67, and 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at 44. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5250, and the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1155 to 1200. East China water bottle chip price increased from 6007 to 6020, hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6007 to 6020, carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6107 to 6120, and outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 805. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 538 to 552, T32S pure polyester yarn price dropped from 10600 to 10570, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4195 to 4120, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16600 to 16700, cotton 328 price dropped from 15450 to 15440, polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1513 to 1587, and the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7210 to 7165. The cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 541 to 497, and the price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7775 to 7760 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 2 to 6398. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories declined slightly, the prices of traders fluctuated, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6320 - 6550 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6440 - 6670 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6350 - 6500 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the cost - end support weakened, the supply - end quotations were a mix of stability and decline, the on - site spot supply was slightly tight, downstream end - users replenished stocks for rigid demand, the negotiation atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center dropped slightly [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, the polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 74.00% to 60.00%, the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the anticipated supply gap of PX. The PX price is supported by gasoline blending value and the stable recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export prospects of polyester products are optimistic due to positive trade policy adjustments in some overseas countries [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors, with the PX - naphtha spread expanding to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the space for increasing PX production to improve efficiency [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are still optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons this week, and the market is slightly destocking [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis continues to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a relatively low - to - neutral level. With the decline in the reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - policy factor is neutral. Trump announced that the US will take land - based actions against so - called Venezuelan "drug traffickers" [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the market is expected to be mainly stronger [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it's advisable to wait and watch, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Trump claimed to launch a strike against Venezuela, and Russia will discuss the plan details of the Geneva negotiation with the US next week [6][9]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline demand is seasonally weakening, and the gasoline cracking profit is also weakening. Overseas refined oil markets show weakening demand and significant regional differences. North American refinery operating rates have risen to 90%, higher than the five - year average. European gasoline spot prices are under pressure, and regional supply may increase as European refineries gradually resume work [10][17][25]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply and Market Expectation**: The PX supply is shrinking, and the strong market expectation affects the market. The domestic reformer oil supply is continuously tight, and the loads of refineries in Asia are also decreasing, but some are expected to resume production by the end of November [28][45]. - **Arbitrage Space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened [38]. - **Profit and Production Adjustment**: The profit of selective disproportionation has recovered, but the disproportionation profit is suppressed by pure benzene. Some large - scale aromatic hydrocarbon units have reduced or shut down production due to poor economics. The PX - naphtha spread is maintained at $245/ton, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed to $105/ton [46][52][59]. - **Price and Demand**: The PX price is stable but tight. The demand is generally healthy, especially the PTA export has new opportunities. The PX price trend is strong, which is significantly beneficial to the PTA market [59][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol port inventory is at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline in coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. New device production increases supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream demand [81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit remains strong [83]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand may boost the market [91][93].