投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 PX供给持续紧张，聚酯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：PX供应紧张，盘面领先于实货 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 汽油裂解利润创下两年多新高的背景下，炼油厂持续优先将重整油用于汽油调和，而非芳烃生产，进一步加剧了PX原料供应的紧张局面。市场普遍预期， | | | | PX供需偏紧的格局将延续至2026年，PX价格走势偏强，显著利好PTA市场。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 当前PTA供应端略有收紧，而聚酯行业开工率保持稳定，整体负荷维持在90%以上。受益于部分海外国家贸易政策的积极调整，聚酯产品出口询盘明显增 | | | | 加，国内聚酯出口前景依然乐观。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors. The supply of PTA has slightly shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, the basis of PTA has stabilized, and the profit has continued to shrink. The price of PX has rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. The market is expected to mainly oscillate due to the lack of obvious driving forces [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the operating rate of PX devices has been stable, with the PXN expanding. It is bearish [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving has performed well recently. It is expected that the current peak season can last until November. It is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, with a 50,000 - ton increase in inventory this week. It is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, and the PTA profit has continued to shrink. It is bearish [5]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, and the processing fee of PTA remains below 200 yuan. It is bearish [5]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, the profit of the reforming device has declined, and the anti - involution news has disturbed the market, causing the absolute price of PTA to rebound. It is neutral [5]. - **Macro Policy**: On October 30 local time, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting. It is neutral [5]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral position should wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: North American crude oil inventories are at a recent low, and the US has imposed new sanctions on two Russian oil companies. The market fundamentals support oil prices, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a large drop in gasoline inventories, both slightly below the five - year average level. The refinery operating rate has risen from 85.7% to 88.6%. Crude oil and gasoline markets have strengthened under the tightening supply and geopolitical risks, but the reforming oil has performed relatively weakly [7][29]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventories are approaching a low point. North American refinery loads have declined, and gasoline cracking profits have strengthened. The premium of reforming oil to RBOB has narrowed, the octane number profit rate of the reforming device has increased, and the refinery's oil - blending efficiency has improved. However, the reforming oil performance reflects that the oil - blending demand has not fully followed up [11][17][29]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons**: The supply of xylene has increased, and the weakness of aromatic hydrocarbons has continued. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The price of pure benzene continues to suppress the disproportionation profit, and the profit of the STDP device is negative. Some producers have reduced the load of the reforming device due to the average profit of benzene [37][47][62]. - **PX**: It is the core of the price fluctuation in the polyester industry. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PX spot trading is active, the price has significantly rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand and geopolitical supply disturbances [58][67]. - **PTA**: Due to the large domestic PTA production capacity, the processing interval of PTA has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new production capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly widely used in the market [58][66]. - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: They are in the production capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the "Belt and Road" [58][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, the port arrivals are still limited, and the import volume of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline. New device launches have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The coal price has risen, but it has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [87]. - **Gasoline**: The profit of Asian gasoline has significantly rebounded due to the reduction in domestic exports [89]. - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load remains optimistic. The production of polyester has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the export performance after the tariff adjustment. The domestic polyester export is still optimistic, but the industry profit is still restricted by the over - capacity caused by new device launches [73][96][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - **Profit**: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - **Investment view**: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Gasoline demand**: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - **Inventory and price**: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - **PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - **Polyester operation**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].

Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% overall, with a core increase of 0.2%, indicating lower-than-expected inflation levels [1][3] - Year-over-year CPI is at 3%, which is better than the consensus expectation of 3.1% [3] - Energy commodities increased by 3.8%, while gasoline prices rose by 4.1%, despite a 9% drop in crude oil prices [4][7] Shelter and Vehicle Prices - Shelter costs increased by 0.2%, with owner's equivalent rent rising by only 0.1%, marking the smallest increase since January 2021 [4] - Used car prices decreased by 0.4%, while new vehicle prices increased by 0.2% [5] Market Reactions - The overall inflation report is viewed positively by the futures and bond markets, suggesting a benign inflation environment [8] - The Federal Reserve can now focus on the labor market, as inflation is not rising as previously feared [5][8] Upcoming Market Events - A significant week is anticipated for the markets, with a Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from major companies [10][12] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the meeting between President Trump and President Xi, are also expected to influence market dynamics [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and it is expected to be mainly bullish, with no obvious driving factors [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side is bearish as crude oil prices fall, domestic PTA device supply gradually returns, and the PTA basis weakens [4]. - The demand side is bullish as the downstream load of polyester maintains around 91%, and the inventory performance of polyester factories is optimistic [4]. - The inventory situation is neutral as the port inventory of PTA decreased by 10,000 tons this week and continues to decline [4]. - The basis is bearish as the PTA basis weakens slightly, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - The profit is bearish as the spread between PX and naphtha is at $230, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan and has shrunk [4]. - The valuation is neutral as the PTA price is at a moderately low level, and the supply of aromatics has increased [4]. - The macro - policy is neutral as the Ministry of Finance continues to implement a package of debt - resolution measures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. Crude oil price decline, increased supply from Huizhou PTA in China, and weakening PTA basis [4]. - Demand: Bullish. Polyester downstream load around 91%, optimistic inventory, and increased load in bottle - chip varieties [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. PTA port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons this week [4]. - Basis: Bearish. Slightly weakened PTA basis and low profit [4]. - Profit: Bearish. PX - naphtha spread at $230, and PTA processing fee around 200 yuan with contraction [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. PTA price at a moderately low level, increased aromatics supply [4]. - Macro - policy: Neutral. Ministry of Finance's debt - resolution measures [4]. - Investment view: Oscillation, expected to be mainly bullish [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral - wait and see, pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - Gasoline: Peak - season destocking but approaching off - season. Refinery operating rate decreased from 94.6% to 94.3%, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and demand is expected to enter the off - season [25]. 3.3 Part Three: Aromatics Fundamental Overview - Some devices plan maintenance, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply increases [33]. - Asian naphtha price is firm, gasoline cracking spread rebounds slightly, and the spread between regular gasoline and naphtha cracking widens [44]. - The profit of selective disproportionation of aromatics decreases slightly [49]. - MX cross - regional arbitrage is marginally feasible, and the spread between the US and South Korea is around $187 [54]. - Asian MX spot price weakens, and the spread between MX and naphtha narrows to $88/ton [61]. - The gasoline reforming and aromatics reforming are both acceptable, but PTA performs weakly due to falling crude oil prices and weakening basis [72]. 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - Ethylene glycol: Supply returns, and the price is weak. The port inventory in East China is 459,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline [86]. - Gasoline: The load of major refineries increases [88]. - Polyester: The load maintains at a high level, and the production increases, waiting for downstream feedback [95][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]