Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]