摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，药明系在基本面持续稳健的背景下，估值水平更具吸引力。大摩最看好药 明康德，因此该公司不仅上调业绩指引，更进行大规模产能扩张，且在下一代GLP-1领域参与度高。该 行提到，药明康德A股为投资者带来理想的买入机会，上调公司2025至27年盈测3至4%，并列为首选 股；将药明生物2025至27年盈测调升6至13%；药明合联盈测上调7至8%。综合而言，三间公司2024至 27年的盈利复合年增长率分别为24%、23%及37%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 91st National Pharmaceutical Trade Fair in Nanjing highlights the rapid growth of the local pharmaceutical industry, driven by the support and services provided by various industrial parks, which serve as a vital force for enterprise development [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Ecosystem - The Nanjing Medical Device Industrial Park showcases eight leading companies, emphasizing a collaborative industrial ecosystem that enhances development momentum [4] - The park has seen a continuous increase in its magnetic effect since its establishment in 2019, contributing to the growth of companies like Joye Technology, which has expanded from a small enterprise to a leading player with over 300 employees [4] - The establishment of a public service platform in the park has accelerated product market entry by over 30% through comprehensive support in evaluation, inspection, and training [4][6] Group 2: Innovation and Product Development - Nanjing Youdebang Medical Technology Co., Ltd. has developed innovative interventional products that utilize drug-coated balloons for effective vascular dilation, showcasing the company's commitment to technological advancement [5] - Nanjing Weikeer Biopharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. has adopted an integrated CRDMO service model, enabling faster and more cost-effective drug development for over 300 domestic and international pharmaceutical companies [8][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projected earnings of nearly 440 million yuan in 2024, reflecting its successful business model and market positioning [9] Group 3: Project Acceleration and Support - Nanjing Haiqing Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is set to launch a new production project six months ahead of schedule, with an expected annual output value of approximately 4 billion yuan [10] - The park's proactive support has facilitated the company's compliance with GMP standards, ensuring a smooth production process and timely market entry [11] - The collaborative environment within the industrial parks is fostering innovation and growth, providing essential resources and services that empower companies to thrive [11]

Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, with a strong atmosphere of profit-taking [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.71%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.96%, indicating rising risk aversion [2] - The total trading volume in the market was approximately 217.6 billion HKD, with short selling amounting to about 44.5 billion HKD, representing 23.22% of the total trading volume [2] Sector Performance - The film and entertainment sector continues to see outflows, while the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure, particularly in areas like brain-machine interfaces and innovative drugs [3] - Commodity-related sectors are also showing weakness, with gold prices dropping approximately 180 USD from their highs, leading to declines in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks [3] - The electric power and new energy sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for policy catalysts cooling off [3] Individual Stock Highlights - Lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors are showing resilience, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 5%, driving stocks like Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) higher [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts a 30% increase in global lithium carbonate demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with prices possibly exceeding 150,000 RMB per ton [3] - Consumer-related sectors are performing relatively well, with stocks in baby products, food, and airlines showing gains, indicating a shift of defensive capital towards domestic demand [3] Company Analysis: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) - Tencent's gaming business exceeded expectations, with domestic market revenue reaching 42.8 billion HKD (up 15% YoY) and international market revenue at 20.8 billion HKD (up 43% YoY) [6] - The advertising business generated 36.24 billion HKD, reflecting a 21% YoY increase, driven by AI-enhanced targeting technology [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services recorded a revenue of 58.2 billion HKD in Q3, marking a 10% YoY growth, supported by improved consumer trends and AI-related services [7] Ecosystem and AI Development - Tencent's WeChat and QQ platforms maintain strong user engagement, with WeChat's monthly active users at 1.414 billion (up 2% YoY) and QQ's at 517 million (down 8% YoY) [8] - The company is advancing in AI technology, with its mixed foundation model achieving industry-leading levels in image and 3D generation [8] - The integration of AI in advertising is enhancing marketing ROI, significantly improving efficiency across various sectors [8] Investment Recommendation - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance demonstrates the deep integration of AI across its business lines, showcasing strong growth resilience in gaming, advertising, and enterprise services [9] - The company is projected to maintain growth through AI-driven advertising efficiency, new game launches, and consumer recovery [9] - A target price of 788 HKD is set, corresponding to a 25.7x PE for 2025 and 23.0x for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 46.30 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.82%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.00 billion yuan, up 12.66% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.4 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.09% year-on-year, with the small molecule business revenue declining over 20% year-on-year, while emerging businesses saw a significant growth of 114% year-on-year [2]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 13% to 15% for the full year 2025, translating to an estimated revenue of 65.6 to 66.8 billion yuan, with Q4 revenue projected to be between 19.3 and 20.5 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15.9% to 22.9% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46.30 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.00 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit of 7.28 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s Q3 revenue was 14.4 billion yuan, with a decline in small molecule business revenue but a doubling in emerging business revenue [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on expanding its market presence, with new orders showing double-digit growth, which adds certainty to future performance [2]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in Q4 deliveries compared to Q3, supporting the revenue growth guidance for 2025 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading domestic small molecule CDMO supplier, with ongoing enhancements in its integrated service capabilities in small molecules and continued investment in large and biological molecules [3]. - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 66.09 billion, 77.48 billion, and 89.30 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 3.05, 3.66, and 4.50 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 reached 3.52 billion yuan, representing a 53.3% increase, while the net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.08 billion yuan, up 84.8%, indicating strong performance from the industry leader and prompting an upward revision of the annual guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 3.52 billion yuan, which is a 53.3% year-on-year growth [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.08 billion yuan, reflecting an 84.8% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for ongoing operations from 42.5-43.5 billion yuan to 43.5-44 billion yuan, with growth rates revised from 13-17% to 17-18% [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The company continues to see growth in new orders for small molecule D&M and TIDES businesses, particularly in late-stage clinical and commercialization [1] - The company has reached an agreement with Hillhouse Capital to sell 100% of its China clinical service research business for 2.8 billion yuan, which includes clinical CRO and SMO operations, contributing 3.5% to revenue and 0.7% to net profit in the first three quarters [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company expects further improvement in adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin for the full year due to ongoing capacity release and operational efficiency enhancements [1] - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 137.75 yuan is set, applying a 29x PE ratio for 2026, with a maintained "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kailaiying (002821) reported a revenue increase of 11.82% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 4.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a 12.66% increase [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, up 11.82% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, representing a 12.66% increase [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 2.18 yuan [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the delivery scale in the fourth quarter will significantly exceed that of the third quarter, projecting an annual revenue growth of 13%-15% [1] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO business revenue remained stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.0%, down 1.9 percentage points [1] - Emerging business segments showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 71.9% year-on-year and a gross margin of 30.6%, up 10.6 percentage points [1] - The chemical macromolecule business saw revenue growth exceeding 150% year-on-year [1] Order Growth - The company is actively expanding its market presence in emerging business areas such as peptides, oligonucleotides, and ADC, maintaining double-digit growth in new orders [1] - Coupled with capacity expansion, emerging businesses are expected to become a core growth engine for the company [1]

Core Insights - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) sector in A-shares has shown strong growth, with 20 out of 29 listed companies reporting year-on-year revenue increases in the first three quarters [1] - The third quarter alone saw 21 companies achieving revenue growth compared to the same period last year, driven by international demand for innovative drugs [1] - The sector is benefiting from both policy support and a surge in demand, which is enhancing new drug development needs and positively impacting the CXO industry [1] Policy Support - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures on July 1 to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, outlining 16 policies to enhance the entire chain of support for innovative drug development [1] Demand Growth - Several CXO companies reported robust order backlogs for the first three quarters. For instance, WuXi AppTec reported a backlog of 59.88 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Kanglong Chemical indicated a more than 13% year-on-year growth in new orders, with acceleration in growth compared to the first half of the year [1] - Yino Science reported a nearly 20% increase in order amounts compared to the end of 2024 [2] - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical noted a 50% year-on-year increase in its small molecule business orders, marking four consecutive quarters of growth [2] Internationalization and Market Trends - The first half of the year saw a significant increase in the internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs, with total external authorization transactions reaching 60 billion USD, accounting for 99% of global related transactions [2] - Morgan Stanley's healthcare research head for Greater China anticipates stable long-term growth in external authorization transactions, with multinational companies likely to be more active in acquiring Chinese innovative drug assets [2] - The CXO industry is transitioning from a "scale dividend" to a "technology premium," with technological iteration and process innovation becoming the core of industry competition [2]

Core Insights - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) sector in A-shares shows strong growth, with 20 out of 29 listed companies reporting year-on-year revenue increases in the first three quarters [1] - In the third quarter alone, 21 companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth, driven by international demand for innovative drugs and a supportive policy environment [2] Industry Overview - The innovative drug industry is experiencing a dual boost from policy support and surging demand, which is activating new drug research and development needs, benefiting the CXO sector [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support high-quality development of innovative drugs, proposing 16 policies to enhance the entire chain of support [2] Company Performance - Several CXO companies reported robust order backlogs for the first three quarters. For instance, WuXi AppTec reported a backlog of 59.88 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Innosilicon reported a nearly 20% increase in order amounts compared to the end of 2024, while Haoyuan reported a 50% year-on-year increase in its small molecule business orders [3] Market Trends - The first half of the year saw a surge in Chinese innovative drugs going global, with total foreign licensing transactions reaching $60 billion, accounting for 99% of global related transactions [3] - Morgan Stanley's healthcare research head in Greater China anticipates stable long-term growth in foreign licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs, with multinational companies likely to be more active in acquiring Chinese assets [3] Future Outlook - The CXO industry is expected to benefit from a combination of demand recovery and structural upgrades, with policies, capital, and technology contributing to a more certain industry development [3] - The industry is transitioning from "scale dividends" to "technology premiums," with technological iteration and process innovation becoming the core of competition [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that Kanglong Chemical's third-quarter revenue reached 3.65 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.1%, slightly above Goldman Sachs' original expectation of 3.48 billion yuan [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the continued momentum in the CMC and bioscience sectors, with an increased contribution from the top twenty pharmaceutical clients [1] - The non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin improved to 12.9%, compared to 11.3% in the first quarter and 12.2% in the second quarter, benefiting from increased utilization and operational leverage [1] - Management raised the full-year revenue growth guidance from 10%-15% year-on-year to 12%-16% [1] - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.5% respectively; the H-share rating was upgraded to "Buy" with a target price raised from 26.6 HKD to 30 HKD, while the A-share rating was maintained at "Neutral" with a target price increased from 36.6 CNY to 38.5 CNY [1]

Core Viewpoint - 康龙化成 is experiencing a positive trend in its CMC service gross margin, with expectations for continued growth in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for CMC services in Q3 2025 is reported at 34.6%, reflecting a 4 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company anticipates that the gross margin for Q4 will continue to improve sequentially, with the full-year gross margin expected to be slightly above 33%, compared to the same period last year [1] Capital Expenditure - The projected capital expenditure for 2025 is over 2 billion yuan, primarily allocated for laboratory services in China and small molecule CDMO capacity expansion, including new capacity in Beijing and the second phase project in Shaoxing [1] - Future capital expenditures are expected to remain at similar levels, with operating cash flow sufficient to cover these expenditures [1] Innovation and Technology Investment - 康龙化成 is committed to ongoing investments in new technology areas, including organoids and AI [1] - The company aims to maintain sustainable positive free cash flow [1]