机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：余文心/周航/陈铭/吴晗 风险提示：全球生物医药研发景气度风险；行业竞争加剧风险；全球宏观地缘风险；产能建设不达预期 风险；产能爬坡不达预期风险。 我们预计公司25/26/27 年EPS 分别为1.11/1.28/1.49 元。我们采用PE 估值方法，考虑到公司上调业绩指 引、CRDMO 模式稀缺，我们给予公司2025 年PE 倍数40 倍，目标价每股48.18 港元，维持"增持"评 级。 分子漏斗项目数不断扩大，在手订单充足保障未来增长。2025 上半年新增86 个项目为1H 历史新高，其 中超过一半新签项目来自美国，双抗、多抗、抗体偶联药物占新签项目比例超过70%。截至25H1，公 司864 个项目中包含67 个临床三期和24 个商业化生产项目，为未来商业化生产收入持续增长奠定坚实 基础。截至25H1，公司未完成订单总额达203 亿美元，未完成服务订单约114亿美元。临床三期项目推 进、商业化生产项目爬坡和早期项目的临床进展共同促进未完成服务订单增长，三年内未完成订单约42 亿美元，巩固近期收入增长预期。 M 端收入保持较快增长，北美地区收入增速展现韧性。临床前收入今年上半年同 ...

上调全年指引，CRDMO 模式价值凸显 药明生物(2269) 药明生物 2025 年半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | | | | 周航(分析师) | 021-23185606 | zhouhang@gtht.com | S0880525040077 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | | | 陈铭(研究助理) | 021-23219164 | chenming7@gtht.com | S0880125042235 | | 32.92 | | 吴晗(分析师) | 010-83939773 | wuhan3@gtht.com | S0880523080005 | | | 本报告导读： 药明生物中报后上调全年收入指引，反映了全球生物医药研发生产景气度的逐渐恢 复，CRDMO 模式 ...

药明生物 20250821 摘要 药明生物 2025 年上半年收益接近 100 亿元，同比增长 16.1%，新增 项目和订单管线创新高，预示加速增长。研发和早期开发板块增长 35%，占总收入 40%以上，为公司最强劲增长点。 商业化生产（M 端）项目增至 24 个，收入增长 24.9%，预计未来五至 六年内将有 40 至 50 个新商业化生产项目，到 2030 年或超 70 个，M 端加速发展。 公司拥有强大的 backlog，R 端里程碑合同金额增至 90 亿美元，服务 backlog 达 113 亿美元，表明未来订单充足稳定。北美市场收入占比 60%，增长 20%，仍为最大市场。 药明生物在全球最具潜力的双抗和 ADC 赛道占据重要地位，分别拥有 168 个双抗/多抗和 225 个 ADC 项目，市场份额远超传统抗体，显示强 大国际影响力。 公司通过实施 follow and win molecule 战略，提高研发效率和流程， 扩大全球产能，压缩 DNA 到 IND 转换周期至 6-9 个月，有效应对全球 融资环境不确定性。 Q&A 药明生物在 2025 年上半年的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，药 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) as part of its initial coverage [4] Core Insights - WuXi Biologics is a global leader in the biopharmaceutical CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector, leveraging an integrated platform to drive growth [1][3] - The company has established a comprehensive CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) model, providing end-to-end services from drug discovery to commercial production, which enhances customer retention and operational stability [1][3] - The non-COVID business has shown strong growth, with a 13.1% year-on-year increase in 2024, indicating a healthy business structure despite a slowdown in overall revenue growth [49] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - WuXi Biologics has developed a one-stop CRDMO service platform, serving over 600 global clients, including the top 20 multinational pharmaceutical companies, with a core employee retention rate of 95.8% [1][21][20] - The company has a global manufacturing network with 9 production bases and 7 development centers across China, Ireland, Germany, and Singapore, supporting its full industry chain service capabilities [1][27] 2. Market Growth and Opportunities - The global biopharmaceutical market is expanding, with China expected to capture a 22.2% share by 2030, driven by the rise of biopharmaceuticals and CDMO services [3][50][53] - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and bispecific antibodies are emerging therapies that are expected to significantly benefit WuXi Biologics as the CDMO market continues to grow [3][54] 3. Financial Performance - WuXi Biologics has demonstrated robust growth, with a revenue CAGR of 36.0% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 18.68 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth rate [6][29] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 3.36 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 41.0% [10][45] 4. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 21.47 billion yuan, 23.65 billion yuan, and 25.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.48 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan, and 5.36 billion yuan [8][10] - The company is expected to benefit from a strong order backlog, with approximately 18.5 billion USD in unfulfilled orders as of December 31, 2024, indicating a solid foundation for future revenue growth [6][28] 5. Competitive Positioning - WuXi Biologics is positioned favorably compared to international peers, with a current PE ratio of 35.2X, significantly lower than that of global leaders like Lonza and Samsung Biologics [7][72] - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery as the company continues to expand its market share and capitalize on the growing demand for biopharmaceutical services [66][70]

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec (药明康德) reported strong Q1 2025 results, with revenue of 9.65 billion yuan, a 21% year-on-year increase, and adjusted non-IFRS net profit of 2.68 billion yuan, up 40% year-on-year [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintained its annual performance guidance of 10%-15% growth for 2025, expecting total revenue to reach 41.5-43 billion yuan despite a challenging market environment [3][4] - In Q1 2025, WuXi AppTec's adjusted non-IFRS gross profit and net profit grew by 31% and 40% respectively, with operating cash flow reaching 3.03 billion yuan, a 41.8% increase year-on-year [7][10] Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - WuXi AppTec's integrated CRDMO platform allows it to provide high-quality services across all stages of drug development, which is a significant competitive advantage [4][10] - The company plans to invest 7-8 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, focusing on expanding its capabilities and production capacity globally, including new facilities in Middleton, USA, and Singapore [10] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company has executed three share buybacks since last year, totaling 3 billion yuan, reflecting its strong management and strategic choices [5][10] - Over the past three years, WuXi AppTec has returned over 11.3 billion yuan to shareholders, with more than 70% of its free cash flow directed towards investor returns [10]