环保公用-2026 年度策略：仓庚于飞，熠燿其羽 - 价值+ 成长共振，双碳驱动新生！20251216 摘要 欧洲碳关税和国内非电可再生能源考核强化双碳驱动，垃圾处理费 C 端 征收提升垃圾发电 ROE，炉渣涨价和国补加速增强分红潜力，垃圾焚烧 行业盈利能力有望提升。 绿电直连政策落地促进数据中心供电，固废板块出海空间广阔，瀚蓝环 境、绿色动力等公司在东盟市场表现突出，水务领域中山公用、首创环 保等公司受益于水价市场化。 双碳约束加强带来电解水制氢、生物油 SAF 和绿醇等投资机会，非电可 再生能源考核驱动生物油需求，二代油、SAF 供不应求，船运行业绿醇 投资机会显现。 设备类公司美埃科技受益于半导体和锂电资本开支，鼎津装备受益于锂 电修复，无人化环卫设备经济性拐点到来，宇通重工、静绿环境等企业 积极布局智能化。 瀚蓝环境、绿色动力等固废现金流价值标的表现突出，龙净环保因紫金 赋能绿电增长，美埃科技与鼎津装备因细分领域优势具备良好前景，朗 坤和山高环能及高能赛恩斯值得关注。 Q&A 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略有何主要观点？ 东吴证券对环保行业 2026 年的年度策略持积极乐观的态度，认为该板 ...

伟明环保 20251214 摘要 印尼垃圾焚烧总统令明确商业模式，达纳塔拉参股 30%-51%，国家电 力公司负责电力收购，地方政府提供土地和垃圾供应，伟明环保已储备 相关资源并进入供应商名单。 印尼垃圾焚烧项目预计 2026 年 Q1 启动建设，2027 年下半年运营。审 批流程简化和主权基金参股降低风险，加速伟明环保建造收入确认和运 营业绩贡献。 印尼垃圾焚烧市场盈利性远高于国内，每吨垃圾发电量和电价均显著高 于国内，单吨垃圾收入约为中国三倍，且现金流由国家电力公司保障。 伟明环保新材料业务集中于镍冶炼，已投运 2 万吨高冰镍产能，另有 2 万吨产能将在未来两季度投运，预计将显著贡献业绩增长。2025 年 Q3 高冰镍销售额已超 3 亿元。 伟明盛清公司拥有电池级硫酸镍、电解镍和三元前驱体产能，2025 年 前三季度营收超 10 亿元，净利润约 1 亿元，为公司带来 6,000 多万元 投资收益。计划 2026 年主要向邦普供应三元前驱体。 Q&A 伟明环保在印尼垃圾焚烧项目中的布局和前景如何？ 伟明环保在印尼垃圾焚烧项目中具有显著的先发优势。2023 年，印尼全国垃 圾产生量为 5,663 万吨，其中只 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]

为了深挖每吨垃圾的能源价值，企业还在锅炉系统、烟气处理和供热管道运维等关键环节实施了一系列 技改。通过热电联产与科技创新的双轮驱动，这家企业实现了从年亏损2000多万元到年盈利超3000万元 的惊人跨越。如今，这样的转型思路在行业内也形成了共识，过去十年，垃圾焚烧行业经历了"跑马圈 地"的建设期。如今，随着补贴退坡、产能释放完毕，行业正迈入"运营为王"的新阶段。唯有通过持续 的技术创新和管理优化，深挖内潜，才能将"包袱"变为财富。 来源：冀时客户端 当外部垃圾来源受限，越来越多企业转向内部深挖潜力——通过技术创新，提升单吨垃圾的能源价值。 位于河北石家庄赵县的一家焚烧厂，设计能力1200吨/日，实际进厂仅900吨，长期"吃不饱"，2023年亏 损超2000万元。2023年底，被中科环保收购后，企业作出关键决策：从单一发电转向"热电联产"。 河北石家庄中科新能源有限公司总经理王传胜："一吨蒸汽如果去供热，会比发电边际效益提升50块 钱。一吨垃圾可以产生两吨蒸汽，就是一吨垃圾边际效益会提升100块钱。我们年处理垃圾33万吨到40 万吨之间，一吨100块钱的话，我们可以提升效益4000多万元。" 来源：冀时客户端 ...

以下文章来源于前瞻经济学人 ，作者产业观察组 前瞻经济学人 . 关注中国城市发展战略、把握全球新兴产业趋势！这是省长书记爱看的智库号之一。 历史性转折点。 作者/产业观察组 然 而 事 实 是 ， 根 据 生 态 环 境 部 数 据 ， 2 0 2 4 年 全 国 垃 圾 焚 烧 厂 平 均 负 荷 率 仅 为 约 6 0 % ， 4 0 %的产能处于闲置状态，垃圾真的不够烧了！ 从"垃圾围城"到"垃圾不够烧"，不仅是中国垃圾焚烧产业的重大转变，背后更是中国经 济发展水平、中国人生活方式的历史性转折点。 中 国 的 垃 圾 不 够 烧 了 吗 ? 稍 有 年 纪 的 人 可 能 会 对 这 个 问 题 嗤 之 以 鼻 ， 因 为 在 固 有 印 象 中，大规模垃圾填埋造成的"垃圾围城"现象，以及因此引发的土地侵占、水质污染，才 应该是相关话题下的常态。 第一阶段 超前发展和水土不服 中国垃圾焚烧产业起源于上世纪8 0年代末。 1 9 8 5年，深圳清水河垃圾焚烧电厂从三菱重工公司成套引进了2台垃圾焚烧炉，建设了 中国内地第一座现代化垃圾焚烧发电厂，开创了中国垃圾焚烧处理的先河。 这个起点并不算晚，和西方发达国 ...

"十五五"规划建议布局氢能，看好氢能行业长期发展 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 15666646523.tcy | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究——周报 | | | [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 郭雪环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] "十五五"规划建议布局氢能，看好氢能行业长期发 展 2025 年 12 月 6 日 本期内容提要: ➢ 投资建议："十四五"国家对环境质量和工业绿色低碳发展提出更多 要求，节能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of waste management in Ethiopia through advanced waste-to-energy technology from China represents a significant step in the globalization of China's environmental industry, showcasing a comprehensive approach that includes technology, standards, management, and capital [1][4]. Group 1: Global Expansion of China's Waste-to-Energy Industry - As of November 2025, Chinese enterprises have participated in 101 overseas waste incineration projects, indicating a broad international presence across Asia, Europe, Africa, and America [1]. - The demand for waste-to-energy solutions is growing in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with Indonesia's waste production projected to exceed 82 million tons by 2045, highlighting the urgency for effective waste management solutions [1][2]. - Chinese companies such as China Everbright, China Tianying, and others are actively involved in the full industrial chain of waste-to-energy projects, from investment to operation management [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Adaptation and Innovation - The success of Chinese waste incineration solutions abroad is attributed to their ability to adapt technology to local waste characteristics, particularly in regions with high moisture content and low calorific value [3]. - Chinese enterprises utilize advanced technologies, such as high-efficiency waste heat boiler systems with thermal efficiency exceeding 85%, to ensure stable combustion and efficient power generation [3]. - The project in Can Tho, Vietnam, exemplifies the full lifecycle management capabilities of Chinese companies, processing 400 tons of waste daily and generating approximately 60 million kilowatt-hours annually while adhering to EU emission standards [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Approaches - Despite the vast market potential, overseas projects face challenges such as stringent local environmental standards and weak waste collection systems [4]. - Chinese companies employ flexible cooperation models like EPC, BOO, or BOT to mitigate project risks and enhance community acceptance, as demonstrated by the Can Tho project, which created hundreds of jobs and gained local trust [4]. - The establishment of 101 overseas waste incineration projects marks a milestone in China's international environmental efforts and its commitment to global energy transition [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new retail pricing mechanism in Sichuan's electricity market, which is expected to enhance the integration of commercial storage resources by virtual power plants [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, while the public utility index dropped by 4.33% and the environmental index decreased by 6.02% [15][25]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power declined by 4.68%, hydropower by 1.44%, and renewable energy generation by 5.67% [15][26]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering maturity with improved free cash flow, and highlights investment opportunities in companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [23]. - The report also points out the potential in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to the EU's SAF blending policy, recommending companies like Shangaohuaneng [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for those in the public utility and environmental sectors [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power enterprises such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, which has relatively stable regional electricity prices [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation. Recommended companies include leading national renewable energy firms Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, as well as regional offshore wind power companies [22]. - The report suggests that the growth in installed capacity and electricity generation will offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies expected to maintain stable profitability. Recommended companies include China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [22]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Longjiang Power, which combines stability and growth [22]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the environmental sector, particularly in water and waste incineration industries, which are entering a mature phase with improved free cash flow [23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, with the public utility index down 4.33% and the environmental index down 6.02%. The relative performance of public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 10th and 23rd among 31 first-level industry classifications [15][25]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection and restoration projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends various companies across different sectors, including: - Thermal Power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric - Renewable Energy: Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind companies - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power - Hydropower: Longjiang Power - Environmental: Guangda Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities, focusing on mature sectors with improved cash flow [3][22][23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform," including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and Guangda Environment, among others [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [13]. Core Insights - The Indonesian waste incineration market is set to begin construction in Q1 2026, with potential revenue recognition in the same year. The market is expected to generate annual operational revenue of approximately 29.4 to 36.5 billion yuan [2][58]. - The high calorific value of Indonesian waste, influenced by its composition, is projected to yield higher profitability and cash flow compared to domestic projects. The average electricity generation per ton of waste is estimated at 539 kWh, with revenue per ton of waste ranging from 612 to 758 yuan [2][9][51]. Summary by Sections Market Demand - Indonesia faces a pressing waste management crisis, with over 60% of waste improperly disposed of. In 2023, the country generated 56.63 million tons of waste, with only 39.01% managed properly, leading to significant environmental and public health concerns [6][18]. - The economic conditions in Indonesia, including a GDP per capita of approximately 4,925 USD in 2024, urbanization rate of 59.2%, and a population growth CAGR of 0.8% over the past five years, support the feasibility of widespread waste incineration [6][33]. Government Initiatives - The Indonesian presidential decree (2025 No. 109) was issued to streamline the waste incineration project process, with the first projects expected to start construction in Q1 2026. The decree outlines responsibilities for various stakeholders, including the sovereign investment fund and local governments [7][30][34]. Project Quality - The calorific value of Indonesian waste is significantly higher than that of domestic waste, with typical urban waste calorific values of 8.6 MJ/kg compared to 5.34 MJ/kg in China. This difference is attributed to the composition of waste, including a lower proportion of moisture-rich food waste and a higher proportion of combustible materials [8][38]. - The average electricity generation per ton of waste is estimated to be between 482 and 597 kWh, which is higher than the average in China [9][47]. Financial Projections - The revenue structure for Indonesian waste incineration projects will primarily consist of electricity sales, with a fixed price of 0.2 USD per kWh. This contrasts with domestic projects, which often include waste disposal fees that can delay cash flow [10][55]. - The projected annual operational revenue for the Indonesian waste incineration market could reach between 29.4 billion and 36.5 billion yuan, assuming an 85% penetration rate of waste incineration [51][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies with established positions in the Indonesian market, such as Weiming Environmental, China Everbright International, and others, to capitalize on the emerging opportunities [11][58].