光大环境(00257)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.53%，报4.99港元，成交额1.15亿港元。 光银国际发布研报称，若光大环境能成功A+H上市，一方面有助提升公司长期价值，另一方面可让光 大环境打通A股市场融资渠道。天风证券（601162）则认为，本次发行可以为公司的后续出海提供更充 足的资金储备。持续看好中国垃圾焚烧产业出海。 消息面上，光大环境去年11月发布公告，公司拟计划于深圳交易所发行不超过8亿股人民币股份。去年 12月26日，证监会网站显示，光大环境在深圳证监局办理辅导备案登记，启动上市辅导。 ...

光银国际发布研报称，若光大环境能成功A+H上市，一方面有助提升公司长期价值，另一方面可让光 大环境打通A股市场融资渠道。天风证券则认为，本次发行可以为公司的后续出海提供更充足的资金储 备。持续看好中国垃圾焚烧产业出海。 智通财经APP获悉，光大环境(00257)盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.53%，报4.99港元，成交额1.15亿港 元。 消息面上，光大环境去年11月发布公告，公司拟计划于深圳交易所发行不超过8亿股人民币股份。去年 12月26日，证监会网站显示，光大环境在深圳证监局办理辅导备案登记，启动上市辅导。 ...

垃圾焚烧：降碳背景利于行业现金流改善，出海带来增长 续航 20260128 摘要 垃圾焚烧行业新增产能有限，存量巨大，龙头企业通过并购、分红、出 海等方式维持竞争力。自 2021 年以来，行业资本开支收缩，经营性现 金流显著改善，2024 年头部企业经营性现金流净额同比增长 41%至 205 亿元。 随着自由现金流转正，垃圾焚烧行业分红能力提升，分红比例稳步提升， 对板块估值形成支撑。碳体系建设背景下，垃圾焚烧项目发放绿证，成 为商业模式转型抓手，改善现金流，并探索供热模式增加收入。 新的商业模式包括供热、直售电给 IDC 以及自建 IDC 进行算力租赁，有 助于提高盈利性和改善现金流。绿证替代国补后，垃圾焚烧公司可以直 接向 B 端企业销售，提高现金流质量，利好行业估值修复。 国家政策积极促进绿色电力和绿证市场发展，加快重点行业及数据中心 等用能单位的绿色电力消费比例，到 2030 年新建数据中心绿色电力消 费比例需提升至 80%以上，利好未来绿证销纳及需求增长。 Q&A 垃圾焚烧行业目前的市场状况如何？ 垃圾焚烧行业已经进入存量竞争时代。2020 年和 2021 年由于政策要求非竞 价类项目需在 2021 ...

垃圾焚烧出海专家交流 20260128 摘要 印尼垃圾焚烧市场受 2025 年 11 月新总统令影响，收入模式从依赖门 费和并网电价转为固定电价，简化收入结构，提升投资者收益预期，并 引入碳收益和炉渣再利用作为次要盈利点。 新总统令解决了 2018 年一号总统令未能成功推行的难题，包括固定电 价（0.2 美元/千瓦时）和取消门费，显著提高了项目内部收益率，并提 供 30 年固定电价，增强了项目收益的保障性。 印尼垃圾焚烧项目不再有容量上限，允许提高工作小时数和燃料热值， 从而增加发电量和收益。项目业主方直接与当地政府商定垃圾供应量， 政府承担部分民生保障角色。 印尼垃圾焚烧项目中，当地主权基金通过参股确保政府收益，并为项目 提供政府背书，增强项目的稳定性和可信度，显示政府对该行业未来发 展的信心。 印尼垃圾焚烧项目的投资成本中，硬件设备占比约 70%，以 1,000 吨 处理量为例，总造价约为 5 亿人民币，每吨处理量造价约 50 万人民币， 新总统令免除了土地租赁费用。 Q&A 印尼垃圾焚烧市场的现状和未来发展前景如何？ 印尼市场对于中国而言并不陌生。自 2018 年起，中国企业开始关注印尼垃圾 焚烧市场。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry, particularly in waste incineration, is poised for significant growth, especially in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [4][9] - The investment space for waste incineration in the ASEAN countries and India is estimated to be around 250 billion RMB, with a potential daily incineration capacity of approximately 496,900 tons [4][10] - Indonesian policies are evolving to optimize business models and enhance project profitability, with a focus on direct electricity sales rather than local government subsidies [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. New Growth in Waste Incineration and Overseas Market Potential - The ASEAN countries and India are projected to generate a daily waste output of 1.4615 million tons by 2024, creating a substantial investment opportunity in waste incineration [9][10] - The investment potential in waste incineration is estimated at 248.5 billion RMB, assuming a conservative investment of 500,000 RMB per ton [10][11] - Several domestic companies, including Kangheng Environment and China Tianying, are leading the expansion into Southeast Asia and Central Asia, with significant operational capacities established [14][15] 2. Indonesian Policy Driving Business Model Optimization - The Indonesian government has shifted from local to national control over waste management, enhancing the creditworthiness of payment entities and increasing electricity prices to 0.20 USD per kWh [22][24] - The new policy aims to construct 33 waste incineration plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately 5.6 billion USD [24][25] - The rapid progress in project bidding and implementation reflects the government's commitment to developing the waste incineration sector [24] 3. Economic Viability of Indonesian Projects - Economic assessments indicate that Indonesian waste incineration projects can achieve significantly higher profitability compared to domestic projects, with projected net profits of 160 RMB per ton for new projects [26][30] - The sensitivity analysis shows that optimizing investment and operational costs can further enhance the return on equity (ROE) for these projects [27][30] - The comparison of domestic and overseas projects highlights that overseas projects benefit from higher processing fees and electricity prices, leading to increased revenue per ton [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the daily waste generation in the ASEAN 10 countries and India reaches 1.46 million tons, presenting a significant investment opportunity of approximately 250 billion yuan in waste incineration projects [1] Group 1: Market Potential - The overseas market for waste incineration is vast, with an estimated investment space of about 250 billion yuan in the ASEAN 10 countries and India [1] - Assuming a 50% incineration penetration rate, the daily incineration capacity could reach 496,900 tons, leading to an investment potential of approximately 248.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue Analysis - High processing fees and electricity prices significantly enhance the revenue per ton for overseas projects, with projected revenues of 268 yuan per ton for domestic projects compared to 324 yuan, 413 yuan, and 582 yuan for projects in Kyrgyzstan, Vietnam, and Indonesia respectively [2] - The revenue increase percentages for these overseas projects are 21%, 54%, and 117% respectively, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [2] Group 3: Indonesia's Policy and Economic Model - Indonesia is shifting its waste management model from local to national control, with a focus on a fixed electricity price of $0.20 per kWh for 30 years [3] - The country plans to build 33 waste-to-energy plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately $5.6 billion, each capable of processing about 1,000 tons per day [3] - The first batch of waste-to-energy project tenders is set to launch by November 2025, covering seven regions with expedited approval processes [3] Group 4: Profitability Metrics - Economic assessments show that domestic projects yield a net profit margin of 27.71% and an ROE of 14.51%, while Indonesian projects can achieve significantly higher margins and returns [4] - For Indonesian old projects, the net profit margin is 27.71% with an ROE of 14.84%, while new projects can achieve a net profit margin of 30.23% and an ROE of 17.04% [4] Group 5: Cost Management Impact - The return on equity (ROE) for Indonesian projects is highly sensitive to cost management, with potential increases to 31.44% if the investment cost per ton is reduced from 1 million yuan to 700,000 yuan [5] - A decrease in financing costs by 1% can increase ROE by 1.82%, indicating the importance of managing both investment and financing costs [5] - If operational costs align with domestic levels, ROE could improve by 2.39 percentage points to 19.43% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies. Recommendations include major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4][20]. - Continuous government policies supporting the development of renewable energy are anticipated to lead to stable profitability in renewable power generation. Recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind power companies [4][20]. - The report notes that the growth in installed capacity and power generation will offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, with nuclear power companies expected to maintain stable profitability. Recommended companies include China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Jiangsu Yangtze Power as a stable and growth-oriented hydropower leader [4][20]. - The environmental sector is entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow. The report suggests focusing on "utility-like investment opportunities" in the environmental sector, recommending companies such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27%. The relative returns for public utilities and environmental sectors were 0.63% and 0.84%, respectively [13][22]. Important Events - Shanxi Province initiated a bidding process for the 2026 incremental renewable energy project mechanism, with a total bidding scale of 9.576 billion kWh, including 3.527 billion kWh from wind power and 6.049 billion kWh from solar power. The bidding price range is set between 0.2 and 0.32 yuan/kWh [2][14]. Special Research - The report outlines that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments primarily between 10% and 30%. The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising costs faced by water supply companies [3][17][19]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends various companies across different sectors, including thermal power, renewable energy, nuclear power, hydropower, and environmental services, based on their expected performance and market conditions [4][20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the 2026 incremental renewable energy project pricing mechanism in Shanxi Province, with a bidding range of 0.2-0.32 CNY/kWh and a total bidding volume of 9.576 billion kWh [2][14]. - It notes that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments typically ranging from 10% to 30% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the carbon neutrality context, recommending investments in the renewable energy supply chain and integrated energy management [20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27% [1][13]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.35%, while hydropower decreased by 1.76% and renewable energy generation rose by 1.61% [1][22]. Important Events - The Shanxi pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects has a total scale of 95.76 billion kWh, with wind power at 35.27 billion kWh and solar power at 60.49 billion kWh [2][14]. - The bidding submission rate for both wind and solar power is set at 120% [2][14]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][20]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [4][20]. - It also highlights the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Changjiang Power [4][20]. Special Research - The report discusses the challenges in adjusting water prices due to regulatory processes, with many water supply companies facing profitability issues [3][17]. - It notes that the average annual cost increase for the water supply industry is about 3%, leading to a situation where some companies operate under a "low price + loss + government subsidy" model [3][17]. Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all rated as "Outperform," including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][21].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the electricity reform continues to deepen, and the green methanol market is on the rise [1][3] - In 2025, coal prices remained low, benefiting thermal power companies, while hydropower and nuclear power sectors showed stable operations [4][6] - The report emphasizes the investment potential in various segments of the utility industry, including thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and green energy [4][6] Thermal Power - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power is expected to remain stable, enhancing the sector's profitability [6] - Coal prices are projected to maintain a low and fluctuating trend in 2026, with improvements in revenue structure due to rising capacity prices [6][53] - The report suggests focusing on regions with smaller electricity price reductions and companies with nationwide layouts to capture stable profits [57][63] Hydropower - The report indicates that large hydropower projects have significant dividend value, especially under low-interest conditions [78] - The construction of hydropower stations in the Lancang and Yarlung Tsangpo rivers is expected to enhance operational flexibility and profitability [75][79] Nuclear Power - The approval of new nuclear power units has become normalized, with a significant number of units under construction and planned for future operation [82][87] - The report notes that the marketization of nuclear power is increasing, with a growing proportion of market transactions [90][93] Green Energy - The report discusses the recovery of green energy installations and the impact of electricity reform on investment value [4][6] - The demand for green methanol is expected to surge due to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) net-zero framework, which aims for significant emissions reductions by 2050 [105][114] - The report highlights the strong demand for green methanol, with a projected annual demand of approximately 1,107.3 million tons from newly adopted methanol-fueled vessels [115] Waste Incineration - The waste incineration sector is entering a mature phase, with an increase in cash flow and potential for higher dividend payouts [116][121] - The report notes that several companies have committed to long-term dividend plans, indicating a positive outlook for returns [121][124] - The expansion into Southeast Asia is highlighted as a growth opportunity for waste incineration companies [124]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [5][19]. Core Insights - The company, a leading solid waste treatment platform under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has shown steady growth in performance over the years, with revenue expected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2020 to 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.5% [1][11]. - The company has a strong technological advantage in waste incineration, with proprietary technologies that enhance operational efficiency and reduce environmental costs [2][11]. - The company is actively expanding its business through mergers and acquisitions, with a total capacity expected to reach 20,900 tons per day, enhancing its operational synergies [3][11]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 1.86 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.16 billion yuan in 2026, alongside a net profit of 394 million yuan and 476 million yuan respectively [11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2012 and is controlled by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, focusing on solid waste treatment and expanding into heating and sludge disposal [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.40 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.16 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 270 million yuan to 476 million yuan during the same period [12][22]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% of net profit, reflecting confidence in its cash flow [10][11]. Business Segments - The main business segment, waste incineration power generation, is expected to generate revenues of 14.09 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 51% [17]. - The project construction segment is anticipated to decline, with revenues projected at 2.13 billion yuan in 2025 [17]. - The environmental equipment sales and technical services segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected at 2.16 billion yuan in 2025 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and along the Belt and Road Initiative, which is expected to provide new growth momentum [3][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in technology and operational efficiency, positioning it well for future growth in the solid waste treatment industry [2][11].