[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 可灵 Q2 营收超 2.5 亿，DeepSeek- V3.1 发布 ——传媒行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 周度涨跌情况（2025.8.16-2025.8.22，下同）：传媒行业（申万）上涨 5.17%，排名行业第 6 名，同期沪深 300 涨 4.18%，上证指数涨 3.49%， 深证成指涨 4.57%，创业板指涨 5.85%，恒生科技指数涨 1.89%。本 周，果麦文化、顺网科技、昆仑万维、智度股份和东方明珠表现较优， 恒生科技成分股中传媒行业阅文集团（周涨幅 9.35%）、网易-S（周涨 幅 2.50%）和腾讯控股（周涨幅 1.35%）表现较好。 行业重点数据及动态更新 AI 应用：最近一周（8.17-8.23）Deepseek/豆包/夸克/腾讯元宝七麦 数据预估 ios 端下载量分别为 34.98/209.57/77.01/85.26 万次，环比 分别-8.88%/+0.76%/+18.89%/-32.76%，豆包周度下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.00%, ranking 17th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [3][15] - Tencent's Q2 performance was strong, with domestic game revenue reaching 404 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% [5][41] - The report highlights the growth potential in AI applications and cultural exports, particularly in gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing sectors [7][43] Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.00% from August 9 to August 15, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [3][15] - Notable performers included Jishi Media, Youzu Network, and Tencent Holdings, with weekly increases of 45.19%, 19.88%, and 5.53% respectively [22][23] Industry Key Data and Updates AI Application Data - Estimated iOS downloads for various AI applications from August 8 to August 14 were 38.14 million for Deepseek, 208.17 million for Doubao, 60.64 million for Quark, and 121.11 million for Tencent Yuanbao, with Tencent Yuanbao showing a significant increase of 63.43% [4][26] Gaming Data - Tencent's domestic game revenue for Q2 2025 was 404 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year increase, with the game "Delta Force" achieving an average daily active user count exceeding 20 million [5][28] - In July 2025, three new products entered the overseas revenue TOP30 list, including "Persona 5: The Phantom X" and "Sword and Magic" [30] Film Data - The total box office for the week of August 8 to August 14 was 1.518 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" leading the summer box office [37][39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with particular attention to gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing sectors. Recommended companies include Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World [7][43]

Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - From July 14 to July 20, there were 77 M&A events involving listed companies, with 27 classified as significant M&A transactions[9] - Out of the total M&A events, 12 were completed, including 1 significant M&A transaction involving Baota Industrial[9] - There were 3 failed M&A attempts by listed companies, specifically by Lixing Co., Hongming Co., and Zhongji Health[15] Group 2: Policy Updates - On July 18, Tianjin's financial authorities released measures to support M&A, focusing on 12 key industrial chains and establishing a resource pool for quality M&A targets[7] - The Shanghai G60 Science and Technology Innovation Group held a summit on July 16 to discuss M&A and overseas expansion in the context of innovation and industry leadership[7] Group 3: Market Performance - During the week of July 14 to July 20, the restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 0.27%[19] - Over a mid-term view, the restructuring index's rolling 20-day return shifted from negative to positive compared to the Wind All A index[19] Group 4: Control Changes - Two listed companies reported changes in actual control during this period, with Shenjian Co. and Hualan Group undergoing ownership transitions[17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.5% [1] - The healthcare and internet sectors are leading the market, with significant gains observed in the pharmaceutical sector (+11.9%) and the internet sector (+7.4%) [1][16] - Overall, 27 industries within the Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced an increase, while only 2 industries saw a decline [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,826, reflecting a 2.8% increase for the week and a 26.8% increase year-to-date [12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also performed well, increasing by 5.5% for the week and 56.6% year-to-date [12] - The small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index rising by 3.6% compared to 3.3% for large-cap stocks [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The average daily fund inflow was +14.1 million HKD, with the pharmaceutical sector benefiting the most, attracting +4.8 million HKD per day [2] - A total of 24 industries saw fund inflows, while 6 industries experienced outflows, with the pharmaceutical, computer, and retail sectors leading in inflows [2] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was revised upward by 0.2%, with the steel industry showing a notable increase of +12.6% [3] - 20 industries had their EPS forecasts revised upward, while 7 industries saw downward revisions [3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the industry performance with a weekly increase of 11.9%, followed by the comprehensive sector (+8.0%) and the computer sector (+7.9%) [16] - The real estate and construction materials sectors were the weakest performers, with declines of -0.2% and -0.8%, respectively [1][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the media industry, including Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Shenzhou Taiyue [4][6][9]. Core Insights - The media industry (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.11%, ranking 8th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% [12][20]. - Key performers in the media sector included Huamei Holdings, Shengyibao, and Zhongwen Online, with significant weekly gains [20] - The report highlights the positive trends in AI applications and cultural exports, particularly in gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing [4]. Industry Performance - The gaming sector's weekly performance showed a 1.34% increase, while advertising marketing rose by 5.32%, and the film industry saw a 2.96% increase [12][15]. - The top three best-selling games as of July 10, 2025, were "Honor of Kings," "Peace Elite," and "Delta Action" [27]. - The total box office for the week of July 4-10, 2025, reached 665 million yuan, with "Jurassic World: Rebirth" leading at 38.9% of the total box office [37][39]. Key Data and Updates - In AI applications, Deepseek led domestic web traffic with 380.15 million visits in June, despite an 11.94% decrease [24][26]. - The report notes that 33 Chinese manufacturers made it to the global mobile game publisher revenue list, accounting for 17.6 billion USD, representing 33% of the total revenue [30]. - Upcoming game releases include Tencent's "Star Resonance" on July 17 and the sequel "I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women! 2" on the same day [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 3.07%, ranking 18th among industries, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [11][19]. - A total of 158 game licenses were approved by the National Press and Publication Administration, marking a recent high, with several major titles from various companies receiving approval [2][29]. - The box office for the week reached 479 million yuan, with the top film "酱园弄·悬案" accounting for 51.4% of the total [37][40]. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 3.07% from June 21 to June 27, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73% [11][19]. - Among the media sector, companies like 欢瑞世纪 and 冰川网络 showed significant gains, with weekly increases of 26.89% and 14.86% respectively [19][20]. Industry Key Data AI Application Data - The estimated download volume for the iPhone app Deepseek was 923,800, down 2.01% week-on-week, while the app 豆包 saw an increase of 1.58% to 2,099,400 downloads [23][24]. - 阿里夸克's downloads increased by 40.55% to 1,414,700, while 腾讯元宝's downloads decreased by 17.70% to 361,300 [23]. Gaming Data - The gaming sector saw a total of 158 licenses approved, with 147 being domestic and 11 imported [28][29]. - Popular games like 王者荣耀 and 和平精英 topped the iOS game sales chart [27]. Film Data - The total box office for the week was 479 million yuan, with "酱园弄·悬案" leading at 246 million yuan [37][40]. - Upcoming films include "侏罗纪世界：重生" and "蜡笔小新：大人王国的反击," which are highly anticipated [38][39]. Industry Key Events and Announcements - Meta launched its third-generation AI glasses, focusing on high-performance features for sports [41]. - 网易有道 open-sourced the "子曰 3" mathematical model, aimed at enhancing AI applications in education [41]. - 巨人网络 introduced a new AI gameplay feature in its game "太空杀," marking a significant innovation in the gaming sector [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the media industry [4][7]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of approximately 180 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a gross profit of about 100.5 billion yuan, up 20% [39]. - The media industry saw a weekly decline of 0.77%, ranking 29th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% [10][17]. - The AI application user base in China reached 270 million in March 2025, with an 8.9% month-on-month growth, indicating a growing user habit [21]. - In April 2025, 33 Chinese companies entered the global mobile game publisher revenue TOP 100, collectively earning 2 billion USD, accounting for 38.4% of the total revenue of the TOP 100 [26][27]. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) experienced a weekly decline of 0.77%, with the gaming sector down 1.22% and the film sector down 1.40% [10][12]. - Notable performers in the media sector included *ST Fanli and Xunyou Technology, with weekly gains of 15.11% and 14.26%, respectively [17][18]. Key Data and Dynamics AI Applications - The active user base for AI native applications in China reached 270 million, with daily usage time and frequency increasing by 32.7% and 53.1%, respectively [21]. - Major AI applications include Deepseek, Doubao, and Alibaba's Quark, with varying download trends [21][22]. Gaming - Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" topped the mobile game sales chart as of May 15, 2025 [25]. - Tencent's mobile game revenue increased by 10%, with significant contributions from "Kingshot" and "Honkai: Star Rail" [27][30]. Film - The total box office for the week of May 9-15, 2025, was 248 million yuan, with "Dumpling Queen" leading at 67.18 million yuan, accounting for 27.1% of the total [35][36]. - Upcoming films include 16 scheduled for release in the week of May 17-23, 2025, with high anticipation for "Lilo & Stitch" [37]. Industry Events and Announcements - ByteDance announced the open-source of the DeepResearch project, DeerFlow, aimed at enhancing AI capabilities [38]. - Tencent's Q1 financial report highlighted a significant increase in R&D investment, particularly in AI technologies [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the media industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [8][42]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a slight decline of 0.11% during the week of April 19-25, 2025, ranking 25th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% [2][11]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the "Network Publishing Technology Innovation Leading Plan" issued by the National Press and Publication Administration, which aims to enhance technological innovation capabilities in the media sector, particularly in gaming and AI [3][37]. - The gaming sector saw significant activity with 118 domestic and 9 imported game licenses issued in April, indicating a robust supply that supports market growth [4][26]. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) saw a weekly decline of 0.11%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.56% [2][11]. - Notable performers in the media sector included companies like Shengyibao and Xingfu Lanhai, which saw weekly gains of 21.10% and 15.12%, respectively [18][19]. Key Data and Updates AI Applications - Leading AI applications include Deepseek, Doubao, Quark, and Tencent Yuanbao, with varying download trends observed [22]. - Deepseek's estimated downloads were 1.61 million, a decrease of 8.92% week-over-week [22]. Gaming Data - Top games as of April 24, 2025, included "Honor of Kings," "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," and "Peace Elite," with new games like "Seven Days World" and "Digimon: Source" performing well in the free rankings [24][25]. - The report notes that 480 domestic game licenses and 30 imported game licenses have been issued this year, indicating a healthy supply for the gaming market [26]. Film Data - The total box office for the week of April 18-24 was 247 million yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading at 58.84 million yuan, accounting for 23.8% of the total [34][35]. - Upcoming films for the May Day holiday include 13 titles, with "Dumpling Queen" and "Ghost in the Shell" generating significant pre-release interest [36]. Industry Events and Announcements - The report discusses the launch of several AI models and applications, including ByteDance's Seedream 3.0 and Baidu's "Xinxiang" app, which enhance capabilities in content generation and task management [37][38]. - Tencent's SPARK 2025 conference revealed updates on 46 games, including 24 new titles, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation in the gaming sector [38][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [7] Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 1.91%, ranking 6th among industries, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [12][18] - The cultural industry is highlighted as a key driver for national soft power and domestic consumption, benefiting from the strategic goal of building a cultural strong nation by 2035 [3][37] - AI-native applications are rapidly growing, with monthly active users reaching 240 million in February 2025, marking an 88.9% increase [22] - The gaming sector continues to thrive, with top games like "Honor of Kings" and "Endless Winter" leading sales, and new titles showing promising performance [27][29] - The film industry reported a total box office of 220 million yuan in the latest week, with "Sunshine Flowers" leading the charts [35] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.91%, with various sub-sectors, except publishing, experiencing growth [12][18] - Notable performers included companies like Dazhong Media and Ciweng Media, with significant weekly gains [18] Key Industry Data AI Applications - The market for AI-native applications is expanding, with significant user growth and reduced costs for AI model usage [22][23] Gaming Data - "Delta Action" achieved over 12 million daily active users, and new games are performing well in the market [27][28] Film Data - The domestic box office reached 220 million yuan, with "Sunshine Flowers" leading the weekly box office [35] Key Industry Events and Announcements - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of cultural development in a recent article, outlining strategies for enhancing national cultural strength [3][37] - OpenAI announced several advancements in AI models, including the release of new versions and features [38][39][40] - The launch of new games and AI applications by major companies indicates a vibrant and competitive landscape in the media sector [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the media industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry (Shenwan) experienced a weekly decline of 1.28%, ranking 22nd among sub-industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.28% during the same period [10][16] - The best-performing stocks in the media sector included Chuanwang Media (+8.26%), Zhongnan Media (+7.45%), and Hengdian Film and Television (+7.11%) [16] - The report highlights the rapid iteration of domestic AI applications, with five Chinese AI applications among the top ten globally by monthly active users (MAU) [20][21] - The gaming sector saw "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Endless Winter" as the top three bestsellers during the week of March 31 to April 6, 2025 [29] - The domestic box office reached 462 million yuan, with the Qingming Festival period contributing 378 million yuan [32][34] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry saw a decline of 1.28% from March 31 to April 6, 2025, with the publishing sector increasing by 1.50% while other sub-sectors like gaming and advertising fell [10][12] Key Industry Data - In March 2025, Chinese AI applications captured half of the top ten global MAU rankings, with ChatGPT leading at 446 million MAU, showing a growth of 11.20% [20][21] - The gaming sector's performance was bolstered by the Qingming Festival, with several interactive games seeing significant ranking improvements [29] - The total domestic box office for the week was 462 million yuan, with "My World Movie" leading the box office during the Qingming Festival [32][34] Key Events and Announcements - The report notes significant advancements in AI technology, including the release of Meta's Llama 4 series and OpenAI's plans for GPT-5 [38][40] - The introduction of new gaming titles is anticipated, with four new games set to launch in the week following April 7, 2025 [31]