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2026年的中国游戏行业,可能会更残酷
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-30 02:50
最近,大家是不是没少刷各种App的年度报告?到2025年最后一个月,葡萄君总感觉游戏行业也应该出个年度报告,让人复盘一下形势。 真要写的话,这个报告当然要把大盘数据放在第一页。其实这数据还挺风光的——今年国产自研游戏收入突破3500亿,行业规模突破3900亿,同比增长 10%;A股、港股上市游戏公司Q1-Q3的净利润增加386亿,同比增长23%,研发投入也增加了119亿…… 此图由豆包生成,假装是年度报告 有这么强大的数据打头,行业的高质量发展似乎真的已经变成共识了。那2026年是不是稳了?这份年度报告的总结,是不是也挺积极乐观的? 然而葡萄君这里,倒有个听起来颇为残酷的观点:2026年,恐怕大多数团队都得把思维逆转过来——以前的逻辑是先做游戏,再找流量;以后可能会变 成"为了流量,去做游戏"。 一定会有人讨厌这句话的,毕竟这商业化的味道也太冲了。 但现实是,游戏毕竟也是生意,大多数团队的头等大事就是生意。而这两年,这门生意的底层逻辑正在发生剧变。 App的年度报告通常是报喜不报忧的。假如有AB面,那游戏行业年度报告的B面,应该紧跟着这些形势复盘:繁荣的背后,是榜单越来越固化,新品突围 越来越难;iOS畅销榜 ...
腾讯大模型团队架构调整,字节跳动发布Seed1.8
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-21 10:13
Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong performance in social entertainment media and internet healthcare, while noting challenges in e-commerce and short video segments [4][11]. E-commerce - The report indicates a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of physical e-commerce sales as per the National Bureau of Statistics, suggesting a weak overall sales outlook for Q4 [4][15]. - Alibaba's AI application, Qianwen, has integrated with Gaode Map, marking a significant step in its ecosystem [12]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent's advertising performance continues to outperform the market, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals showing upward momentum [4][16]. - Tencent's new game, "Delta Action," is expected to become a major title alongside "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][16]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][16]. Short Video - The report notes a recent decline in stock prices for AI application-related companies due to market sentiment, but maintains a positive outlook on Kuaishou's core business stability [4][16]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart's new flagship store in Shanghai is expected to enhance interactive space and expand its presence, with new IPs like 1001moons and supertutu being launched [4][16]. Long Video - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango TV, as regulatory changes are expected to improve the long video sector's commercial model [4][17]. Music Streaming - TME and NetEase Music reported stable performance in Q3, although concerns about competition have led to a valuation adjustment [4][18]. Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming industry remains highly prosperous, with continued recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, and a focus on companies with improving product trends [4][19]. Advertising - Focus Media has shown strong growth in non-recurring revenue, with a significant increase in advertising spending from internet advertisers in Q3 [4][19]. Publishing - Some publishing companies are facing challenges due to negative impacts from educational reforms, leading to delays in revenue recognition [4][19]. Film and Television - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the long video industry, with a focus on companies with strong production capabilities and project pipelines [4][20]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in various sectors, including advertising and healthcare, suggesting a growing trend towards AI integration in business models [4][20].
鸿蒙6正式发布:从“可用”到“好用”的跨越
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 03:58
Core Viewpoint - HarmonyOS 6 has been pushed to nearly one million devices, achieving an upgrade in system experience from "usable" to "user-friendly" [1][44] Group 1: System Performance - Significant improvement in system fluency, with faster application launch speeds and smooth operation even when multiple applications are open simultaneously [2][45] Group 2: Software Ecosystem - Continuous enhancement of software ecosystem, with common applications like WeChat and Douyin fully adapted, providing a better experience than Android [2][45] - Some applications still require native adaptation, but compatibility with Android apps is achieved through "Zhuoyitong," offering a near-native experience [5][47] Group 3: AI Capabilities - The AI voice assistant "Super AI" has evolved into a smart hub for ecosystem management, supporting multiple dialects and enabling complex task execution through simple voice commands [16][54] Group 4: Gaming Experience - Comprehensive optimization of gaming experience, with mainstream games adapted to HarmonyOS 6 maintaining smooth performance and stable frame rates even in high-load scenarios [23][59] Group 5: Imaging Features - AI-powered intelligent photography and post-processing capabilities, including smart composition assistance and advanced editing features through voice commands [30][66] Group 6: Device Interconnectivity - Enhanced device collaboration, allowing quick content sharing and cross-screen operations between smartphones and tablets, significantly improving office efficiency [39][75] Summary - HarmonyOS 6 has made substantial progress in system fluency, ecosystem adaptation, AI functionality, and device collaboration, marking a transition from "usable" to "user-friendly" [43][77]
单季收入首破600亿,2025年腾讯游戏“铁王座”更稳了?
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-17 09:29
Core Insights - Tencent Games continues to demonstrate growth potential, achieving a Q3 revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, with gaming revenue reaching 63.6 billion yuan, up 22.8% [1] - The strategic shift towards "returning to large DAU games and focusing on evergreen game series" has shown positive results, but challenges remain in self-developed efficiency and innovation [1] Group 1: Organizational Adjustments - Tencent Games has undergone three major structural adjustments to align with its 2025 strategy, moving from an internal competition model to a more streamlined approach [2] - The restructuring includes consolidating multiple studios into a "4+2" model, focusing on specific game genres and enhancing operational clarity [2][4] - New game releases in 2025 include "Delta Force" and "Valorant," with "Delta Force" performing exceptionally well in the market [4][6] Group 2: Game Performance and Market Strategy - "Delta Force" has achieved over 4 billion yuan in annual revenue since its launch, indicating strong market demand for FPS games [6] - Tencent's new game "NBA All-Star" has successfully attracted basketball fans through its official NBA licensing, maintaining a top position in the iOS sports game rankings [8] - The company is focusing on a "GaaS" (Game as a Service) model, extending this approach to PC games, which has contributed to the success of several titles [10][12] Group 3: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - Tencent's international market revenue grew by 43% year-on-year in Q3 2025, marking the highest growth rate since the segment began reporting separately [14] - The company is investing in global IPs and local studios to enhance its international presence, successfully integrating domestic operational models with global strategies [12][14] - The strategy of validating game concepts in the domestic market before global rollout has reduced risks and strengthened Tencent's competitive position [16] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Despite maintaining a leading position, Tencent faces increasing competition from companies like NetEase, which holds a 28% market share and has a strong portfolio of new games [17] - The gaming market is experiencing a shift towards "de-fan culture," which may affect player loyalty and retention, as users are less emotionally attached to individual games [19] - Tencent's reliance on established titles like "Honor of Kings" for revenue and the dependency on external IPs for international growth present potential vulnerabilities [22]
这份“00后”用户报告,藏着游戏厂商最想了解的新生代秘密
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 16:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the "post-00s" generation in China, numbering 179 million, is characterized by strong social interaction, a preference for entertainment experiences, and rapid adoption of new technologies, particularly AI [1][6][19] - The "post-00s" users spend an average of 217.6 hours online monthly, with a usage frequency of 3296.7 times, which is significantly higher than the average for all internet users [1][4] - This generation shows a notable preference for mobile video content, accounting for 37.1% of their online activity, followed by social media and gaming at 25.2% and 9.7% respectively [7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that "post-00s" users are not just gamers but have evolved into deep participants in the esports ecosystem, with significant engagement in events like the League of Legends S15 and KPL finals [13] - Popular games among this demographic include "Honor of Kings" with 42.5 million monthly active users and "Happy Elimination" with 25.2 million, indicating a strong preference for MOBA, strategy, and shooting games [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional value in consumption behavior, where experiences and content serve to enhance their social identity and community engagement [19][21] Group 3 - The "post-00s" generation is increasingly engaging with AI-generated content (AIGC), with active user participation rising by 20.1% over the past year, indicating a strong trend towards innovative content and interactive experiences [6][9] - Platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou dominate their video entertainment preferences, while Bilibili, Tencent Video, Mango TV, and iQIYI each have over 50 million monthly active users among this demographic [15][17] - The report notes that the "post-00s" are driving trends in the "Guzi economy," particularly in collectible toys like blind boxes from Pop Mart, where they represent 43.7% of the user base, showcasing their interest in IP culture [21][24]
互联网传媒行业投资策略周报:GPT-5.2模型发布,迪士尼与OpenAI达成战略合作协议-20251214
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 08:49
Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong performance in e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and other segments, despite recent market fluctuations [4][16][19]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is experiencing stock price fluctuations with a lack of catalysts, but companies are deemed to have attractive valuations. Alibaba's narrative focuses on AI advancements and cloud growth, while Meituan's outlook remains cautious due to ongoing competition [4][16][17]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent's advertising performance continues to outperform the market, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving. Upcoming titles like "Delta Action" and Bilibili's "Escape from Duckkov" are expected to drive growth [4][16][17]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health leverage their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][16][17]. Short Videos - Recent declines in AI-related stocks are noted, but Kuaishou's core business remains stable, with ongoing advancements in AI technology and commercialization [4][16][17]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart's new flagship store in Shanghai enhances interactive space, and the company continues to launch new IPs like 1001moons and supertutu [4][16][17]. Online Mobility - Cao Cao Mobility has upgraded its Robotaxi strategy, moving towards fully unmanned operations by 2026, with a focus on cost advantages in customized vehicles [4][16][18]. Long Videos - The State Administration of Radio and Television's new policies aim to enhance content supply, suggesting investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango TV [4][16][18]. Music Streaming - TME and NetEase Music show stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to valuation adjustments. The report emphasizes the importance of quality content in driving paid subscriptions [4][16][18]. Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming market remains robust, with continued recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase. Attention is drawn to companies with improving product trends and operational conditions [4][19]. Advertising - Focus Media's performance has exceeded expectations, with significant growth in internet advertising spending anticipated for Q4, driven by new business initiatives [4][19]. Publishing - Some publishing companies face challenges due to educational reforms, impacting revenue recognition. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][21]. Film and Television - The report highlights the potential recovery in the long video sector, with a focus on production companies with strong project pipelines and leading platforms like Mango TV and iQIYI [4][21]. AI and Technology - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming various sectors, with specific recommendations for companies involved in AI applications across media and healthcare [4][22].
传媒互联网数据月报:港美股披露3Q业绩,年末娱乐景气度提升-20251214
CICC· 2025-12-14 08:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, with specific stock recommendations across various segments [5][8]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a slight rebound in November, with the advertising segment gaining traction due to AI applications, while other segments showed minor fluctuations. The demand for entertainment is expected to rise towards the end of the year, suggesting potential opportunities in niche segments [3][4]. - Key trends for 2026 include a supportive policy environment fostering resilient growth, with a focus on AI applications, overseas expansion of Chinese content, and the revaluation of IP value driven by upgraded demand [3][4]. - The report highlights strong Q3 performance in Hong Kong and US stocks, particularly in gaming and social media sectors, with notable revenue growth from Tencent and Kuaishou [3][4][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The media index rose by 1.69% in November, contrasting with a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.67%. Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with digital media up by 1.76% and advertising marketing up by 9.68% [2][11]. - The gaming sector saw a record high in the issuance of domestic game licenses in November, with 178 games approved, indicating a robust supply side [20]. Company Performance - Tencent Music reported a revenue of 8,463 million, exceeding expectations, while iQIYI's performance was in line with forecasts at 6,682 million [18]. - Kuaishou's revenue reached 35,554 million, meeting expectations, driven by advancements in AI technology [18]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report maintains target prices and ratings for covered companies, recommending stocks such as Century Huatong, Mango Excellent Media, and Kuaishou for A-shares, and Tencent Music and iQIYI for Hong Kong and US stocks [5][8]. - Specific stock recommendations include Century Huatong (target price 26.50), Kuaishou (target price 89.00), and iQIYI (target price 2.50), all rated as "Outperform" [5][8].
过去10年,顶级富豪们都怎么赚钱?
商业洞察· 2025-12-10 09:51
以下文章来源于每日人物 ,作者每人作者 轻商业,懂生活。 来源: 每日人物(ID:meirirenwu) ------------------------------- 作者: 常芳菲 每日人物 . 编辑:Yang 财富的座次,一直是时代最真实的刻度。 从王健林、许家印在房地产的黄金时代登顶,到马云、张一鸣在移动互联网浪潮中称雄,再到卖水 的钟睒睒以5300亿身家追平纪录,首富的名字变迁,映照着一部中国商业的浮沉史。 当房地产富豪从财富榜上成批消失,靠"情绪"挣钱的新贵们已经坐上了牌桌——泡泡玛特、老铺黄 金、卡游。这些曾被主流资本拒之门外的生意,正靠着为年轻人提供丰沛的情绪价值,划出了收入 与利润陡峭的增长曲线,并将它们的创始人一举推上财富榜。 我们回顾了从2015年到2025年的胡润中国百富榜,试图看清这10年间中国的财富流向和消费变 迁。 01 新贵上桌 财富的流向,始终吸引着所有人的目光。每一年,这个榜单总有新贵上桌,在一定程度上代表了当 时最有潜力的行业机遇,与财富浪潮最汹涌的浪头。 显然,在2025年,最高的浪头是"情绪"。 新人们的榜首是老铺黄金的徐高明、徐东波父子,以695亿元财富排名第71; ...
游戏ETF(516010)涨超1.3%,AI应用场景拓展提振行业预期
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-10 08:03
华鑫证券指出,AI时代的媒介入口成为大厂竞争焦点,从AI眼镜、手机到玩具,智能体应用场景 持续拓展。游戏领域,女性向游戏《恋与深空》凭借情感陪伴设计登顶畅销榜,老牌IP通过技术升级焕 发活力。此外,AI漫剧在内容产出和流量获取上显现优势,验证其市场增长潜力。政策端,国家推动 消费新场景建设,传媒行业在AI玩具、体验经济等细分领域具备发展空间。游戏行业估值已进入击球 区,腾讯魔方工作室多款IP大作公布更新,头部产品如《和平精英》表现强势。 注:如提及个股仅供参考,不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考,不构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品,请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 ...
QuestMobile 2025“00后”用户消费洞察报告:三线及以上活跃占比近八成,高城市化、高黏性与大纵深特性悄然撬动大变局
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-10 06:28
Core Insights - The "post-00s" demographic in mobile internet has reached 179 million monthly active users, accounting for 14% of the total online user base, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1][7] User Engagement and Behavior - The average monthly usage time for "post-00s" users is 217.6 hours, and the average number of uses is 3296.7 times, both significantly higher than the overall user average by 18.7% and 24.0% respectively [9][12] - "Post-00s" users show a strong preference for mobile video, social interaction, and gaming, with mobile video usage time accounting for 37.1% of their total usage, reflecting a 1.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [14][18] Application Preferences - In the AIGC sector, the monthly active user numbers for Doubao, DeepSeek, and Tencent Yuanbao are 42.72 million, 26.97 million, and 6.785 million respectively, indicating a strong engagement with these platforms [23][24] - The gaming preferences of "post-00s" users are concentrated in MOBA, strategy, and shooting games, with popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Happy Elimination" leading in user numbers [27][26] Consumption Patterns - "Post-00s" exhibit stable online consumption willingness and capability, with over 90% showing medium to high consumption intent, and nearly 80% of users having a spending capacity between 1000-2999 yuan [20][22] - The e-commerce landscape is dominated by major platforms like Taobao, JD, and Pinduoduo, each with over 100 million monthly active users from the "post-00s" demographic, reflecting a double-digit growth trend [33] Urbanization and Demographics - High urbanization rates among "post-00s" are evident, with significant concentrations in first-tier and new first-tier cities, driven by advantages in education, employment, and digital infrastructure [16] Social and Emotional Consumption - "Post-00s" display a dual-track emotional consumption pattern, seeking both personal fulfillment and social capital accumulation, which shapes their overall value satisfaction [39][41] - The interest in live events and high-interaction entertainment activities is notable, with a significant proportion of "post-00s" engaging in esports and offline performances [44]