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未来产业:核聚变关键部件与材料投资机会(附投资逻辑与标的)
材料汇· 2025-07-11 15:49
点击 最 下方 "在看"和" "并分享,"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ,遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题: 1 、当前核聚变技术进展和未来关键时间节点展望; 2 、全球核聚变装置运行状况及融资情况分析; 3 、磁体系统、偏滤器、包层系统价值量分析及关键材料拆解。 核聚变技术加速突破,大科学装置实现里程碑节点 ITER(国际热核聚变实验堆): 2020年进行了重大工程安装启动仪式,预计2034年开始对氘-氚等离子体进行实验,2036年开始以全磁能和等离子体电流长脉冲运 行,2039年开始氘-氚运行。中国承担了18个关键部件采购包制造。 HL-3(环流三号): 2025年5月,综合参数聚变三乘积达到10的20次方量级,中国聚变快速挺进燃烧实验。 EAST(东方超环): 2025年1月,首次完成1亿摄氏度1066秒长脉冲高约束模等离子体运行,再次刷新世界纪录。 BEST(紧凑型聚变能实验装置): 2025年5月,工程总装提前两个月正式启动,计划2027年建成,2030年演示发电。 CRAFT(聚变堆主机关键系统综合研究设施): 目标建成国际核聚变领域参数最高、功能最完备的综合性研究及测试平台 ...
国海证券晨会纪要-20250711
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-11 00:01
Group 1: Company Overview - The report analyzes Guoquan (02517) in the "home dining" market, focusing on its sustainable growth logic and addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [3][4] - As of the end of 2024, Guoquan operates 10,150 stores, with a retail market share of 3.0% in China's home dining products, positioning it as the market leader [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The home dining market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, reaching an estimated market size of 940 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth potential in lower-tier cities where penetration rates are below 25% [4][5] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.1% market share, indicating substantial room for growth in the lower-tier markets [4] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Guoquan's competitive strategy includes a focus on popular products, a robust membership ecosystem, and innovative channel strategies. The "99 yuan beef tripe package" achieved sales of over 500 million yuan in 2024, with significant exposure on Douyin [5] - By the end of 2024, Guoquan had registered 41.3 million members, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [5] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.080 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x [5] Group 5: Industry Overview - The report on the new materials industry highlights the strategic opportunities arising from advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with significant investments and milestones expected in the coming years [7][8] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach 345.1 billion dollars by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% until 2037 [10]
晚报 | 7月11日主题前瞻
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-07-10 14:26
Group 1: Nuclear Fusion - Chengdu Hanhai Fusion announced an event on July 18 to celebrate the completion of China's first linear fusion device HHMAX-901 and the achievement of plasma ignition, marking a significant breakthrough in controllable nuclear fusion commercialization [1] - The main technological paths for controllable nuclear fusion include magnetic confinement (Tokamak), inertial confinement (NIF), and magnetic inertial confinement (linear devices), with multiple facilities under construction globally [1] - Hanhai Fusion is the only commercial fusion company in China using the field-reversed configuration technology, which has a power density approximately 100-1000 times that of Tokamak devices [1] Group 2: Short Dramas - JD Group is recruiting for short drama operation positions, indicating its intention to enter the short drama market, which has seen explosive growth since 2023, with over 600 million users expected by 2024 [2] - The micro-short drama market in China is projected to reach 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for the first time, with an expected growth to 63.43 billion yuan by 2025 and 85.65 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% [2] Group 3: Quantum Computing - CSIRO researchers developed a groundbreaking semiconductor process technology that successfully applies Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to construct process models, enhancing manufacturing precision and efficiency while potentially lowering chip production costs [3] - Quantum computing is seen as a core driver of next-generation information technology, with a significant shift towards industrial applications expected between 2025 and 2030, potentially reaching a market size of hundreds of billions of dollars [3] - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies quantum technology as a core strategy, with expectations for breakthroughs in quantum communication and optical quantum computing [3] Group 4: Domestic Services - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement policies to promote domestic service brands and improve the credit system in the sector, as part of the "2025 Domestic Service Action Plan" [4] - The domestic service market in China surpassed 1.16 trillion yuan in 2023, growing approximately 7.3% from 2022, driven by increasing demand due to family size reduction and aging population [4] - The domestic service industry has a significant talent gap, with over 30 million workers currently employed, indicating a strong potential for job creation [4] Group 5: Autonomous Driving - An international standard for testing scenarios of autonomous driving systems was officially released, outlining evaluation processes and requirements for testing scenarios [5] - The diversity and coverage of testing scenarios are crucial for the effectiveness and reliability of autonomous driving system evaluations, which involve multiple industries including AI, IoT, and urban infrastructure [5] Group 6: Artificial Intelligence - The Shanghai government is preparing for the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, promoting global cooperation in AI and focusing on key sectors for innovation [6] - The competition in large model technology is intensifying, with significant differences in development paths between China and the US, as domestic companies work on core technology and industry applications [6] Group 7: Gaming Industry - Zhejiang Province has implemented a comprehensive policy to support the international development of gaming companies, aiming to strengthen local game enterprises and foster a gaming export industry cluster [7] - The gaming industry is expected to enter a new development phase characterized by content refinement, AI industrialization, and systematic internationalization by 2025 [7]
核聚变、量子信息、深空探测……重大科技基础设施建设“加速跑” 原创成果竞相涌现
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-10 06:21
央视网消息:核聚变、量子信息、深空探测……在国内,这些前沿关键词聚集在了一个地方——安徽。"十四五"期间,安徽的重大科技基础设 施建设迎来了快速发展期,重大原创科技成果竞相涌现。 在安徽合肥聚变堆园区,这里每座建筑都是一个巨大的实验室,里面分别在测试安装"人造太阳"的不同关键部件。这个实验室最明显的是这座 半圆形的装置,看起来非常像一个"橘子瓣",它的学名叫作聚变堆主机八分之一真空室及总装平台。目前,这里正在进行偏滤器部件和遥操作 系统的集成测试,将进一步验证这个总装平台的综合能力。 所谓人造太阳,是模仿太阳的原理,让氢原子在超高温高压下碰撞融合释放出巨大能量。每一升海水里面提取的氢的同位素氘,经过聚变反 应,就能释放出相当于300升汽油的能量,而且生成物是氦气和水,没有任何废物和放射性元素,是未来的理想能源。 中国科学院合肥物质院等离子体物理研究所团委书记叶华龙介绍,园区在2022年3月份投入使用,19个子系统建设进程全面加快,预计到年底 会基本建成。 要建设"人造太阳"就要有极其特殊的技术和装备。这个园区建成后,将是国际聚变领域参数最高、功能最完备的综合性研究及测试平台。这里 测试成功的装备,将用于园区旁 ...
石油ETF(561360)涨超1.2%,传统能源景气与新兴技术突破共振
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 05:36
石油ETF跟踪的是油气产业指数,该指数由中证指数有限公司编制,主要从沪深市场中选取涉及石油与 天然气勘探、开采、加工及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本,以反映中国油气行业相关上市 公司证券的整体表现。该指数具备较强的周期性和资源属性特征,能够较好地体现油气产业链企业的市 场走势。 消息面上,2025年7月7日,中科炼化液化烃码头二期项目正式投运,该项目将进一步提升华南地区液化 烃储运能力;同日,石化机械与阿布扎比国家石油公司签署合作备忘录,双方将在油气装备领域深化技 术合作。此外,2025年7月6日,浙江石油35家易捷养车汽服店同步开业,标志着其非油业务向汽车后市 场服务延伸取得新进展。 上海证券指出,传统能源设备行业景气持续,加速出海。美国石油库存处于历史低位,且临近6-9月石 油消费旺季,有望支撑油价上行;地缘政治扰动如美伊核谈判、俄乌冲突、中美关税等因素也对行业产 生影响。中国油气设备公司正加速出海,海外订单贡献盈利。此外,新型能源设备领域可控核聚变资本 开支和景气度上行,商业化渐行渐近。近5年核聚变行业初创企业涌现且投融资活跃,技术进展层出不 穷,国内行业发展进入加速期。2025年以来国内核聚变 ...
活力中国调研行丨从实验室到地铁站 前沿科技成果竞相涌现
核聚变、量子信息、深空探测,在国内,这些前沿关键词聚集在了一个地方,那就是安徽。 "十四五"期间,安徽的重大科技基础设施建设迎来了快速发展期,重大原创科技成果竞相涌现。今天让我们一起跟着记者的脚步,走进安徽合肥,看看那里 的最新建设情况。 重大原创科技成果 竞相涌现 在安徽合肥聚变堆的园区,每座建筑都是一个巨大的实验室,里面分别在研发安装"人造太阳"的不同关键部件。记者所在的实验室里,最明显的一座半圆形 的装置,看起来非常像一个"橘子瓣",它的学名叫作: 聚变堆主机八分之一真空室及总装平台。目前,这里正在进行偏滤器部件和遥操作系统的集成测 试,将进一步验证这个总装平台的综合能力。 中国科学院合肥物质院等离子体物理研究所团委书记叶华龙:我们的园区是2022年3月份投入使用,19个子系统建设的进程,节奏是全面加快了,预计到年 底就会基本建成。 所谓人造太阳,是模仿太阳的原理,让氢原子在超高温高压下碰撞融合,释放出巨大能量。每一升海水里面提取的氢的同位素氘,经过聚变反应,就能释放 出相当于300升汽油的能量,而且生成物是氦气和水,没有任何废物和放射性元素,是未来的理想能源。 要建设"人造太阳",就要有极其特殊的技术 ...
颠覆未来20年的科技是什么?“中国诺奖”得主们这样说
第一财经· 2025-07-10 02:01
2025.07. 10 本文字数:2947,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 16位"未来科学大奖"历年得主齐聚上海北外滩,共话推动人类未来发展的颠覆性科学技术。 7月8日,未来科学大奖十周年庆典在上海举行。未来科学大奖上海峰会联席主席、上海交通大学李 政道研究所副所长丁洪院士表示,希望激励更多年轻人投身科学前沿。 "未来科学大奖"被《自然》杂志称为"中国诺贝尔奖",由民间公益组织颁发,设有生命科学奖、物质 科学奖、数学与计算机科学奖三大奖项,表彰在中国做出具有世界级影响力的科研成果,单项奖金高 达100万美元。 今年是未来科学大奖成立十周年。过去十年来,已有39位科学家获得未来科学大奖。真格基金创始 人徐小平表示:"也许在100年后,比起诺贝尔奖,中国科学家更想获得未来科学大奖。" 寻找"不老药"和永久持续的能源 在生物医学领域,基础研究、应用研究和临床研究之间的鸿沟正在缩小,已进入相互融合、协同发展 的阶段。近年来,诞生了一批有望颠覆未来疾病治疗格局的具有潜力的疗法,包括一针预防心脏病或 治愈肿瘤的基因编辑疗法。 顶尖生物医学领域专家、香港中文大学校长卢煜明院士强调,如何在基础医学研究和临床 ...
合锻智能20250707
2025-07-07 16:32
合锻智能 20250707 摘要 河北建投因资金需求计划减持禾川智能股份,属正常投资回报行为,不 影响禾川智能核心业务和发展战略。首次减持将通过二级市场操作,若 价格未达预期可能放弃。 禾川智能董事长严总虽已请辞巨变新能董事长职务,但因无合适人选替 代,且股东希望由独立第三方担任,目前仍继续担任该职务,不领取工 资,不接受行政任职和考核。 巨变新能下半年预计进入密集招标阶段,订单规模预计约 70 亿元,加 上环流 3 号改造等项目,总招标规模或达百亿级别,产业链蓄势待发。 国外核聚变技术进展超预期,如 Google 锁定 CFA/CFS 托卡马克装置部 分发电功率,欧美已实现第七代装置,中国需加速追赶,商业巨头入场 概率增加。 禾川智能与上海交大李政道研究所联合成立实验室,在激光聚变惯性约 束领域取得突破,未来混合堆技术依赖激光聚变,公司价值量有望提升。 禾川智能参与偏滤器联合研制,下半年偏滤器招标启动,此举将显著提 升公司的市场地位和竞争力,有望获得更多市场份额。 Q&A 严总确实递交了辞呈,但目前省政府和能源院尚未同意,主要原因是尚未找到 合适接替人选。严总担任巨变新能董事长时不领取工资,也不接受行政任职 ...
新能源+AI周报:重视新能源供给侧的进化-20250707
Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry segments [2]. Core Insights - The overall strategy emphasizes the evolution of the supply side in the new energy sector, focusing on innovation and avoiding "involution" in the market [3][5]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering a new cycle, with companies like CATL benefiting from collaborations with tech giants like Xiaomi and Huawei [3][21]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a positive outlook, with production forecasted to exceed 130 GWh in July, marking a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [4][35]. - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and competition, but recent government measures aim to optimize supply and stabilize the market [5][25]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - The downstream landscape is evolving, with companies like CATL collaborating with automakers to enhance production efficiency and shorten delivery times [3][27]. - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7 has exceeded expectations, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing emotional and intelligent experiences in vehicles [21][22]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery production is projected to grow, with significant investments in high-end products and solid-state technologies [4][35]. - Companies like Fulin Precision and Enjie are expanding their production capabilities, focusing on high-performance lithium iron phosphate and solid-state battery materials [4][31]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is expected to confirm a mid-term bottom as supply-side optimization measures are implemented [5][25]. - Major glass manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry plan to reduce production by 30% starting in July to address overcapacity issues [5][25]. Offshore Market Opportunities - Leading companies like EVE Energy are investing in overseas projects, such as a new energy storage project in Malaysia worth up to 8.654 billion yuan [4][22]. - The establishment of independent pricing systems and production capacities in overseas markets is seen as a strategy to enhance profitability [4][22]. AI and New Energy Integration - The integration of AI with new energy sectors is highlighted, with companies exploring innovative applications and market breakthroughs [8][21]. - The report notes the acceleration of controlled nuclear fusion technology, with companies like CFS partnering with Google for future energy supply [8][34].
(活力中国调研行)合肥有望点亮全球首盏“核聚变灯”
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-07-07 13:43
来源:中国新闻网 中新社合肥7月7日电 题:合肥有望点亮全球首盏"核聚变灯" 中新社记者 张强 贾亦夫 合肥北部,"未来大科学城"建设如火如荼。全超导托卡马克装置(EAST)、紧凑型聚变能实验装置 (BEST)、聚变堆主机关键系统综合研究设施(CRAFT)等一批重大科技基础设施集聚于此。安徽合肥已成 为全球核聚变领域大科学装置最为集中的城市。 7月1日,合肥聚变创新展览馆内展示的全超导托卡马克装置(EAST)。中新社记者 张强 摄 记者近日在采访中了解到,装配部件总重量约6000吨的BEST装置正加速组装,有望点亮全球首盏"核聚 变灯"。 核聚变反应即两个较轻的原子核在高温、高密度条件下结合成一个较重的原子核,并释放出巨大的能 量。太阳之所以发光放热,正是源于其内部不断进行的核聚变反应。 严建文说,核聚变的主要原料是氘,它可以从海水中提取。在完全核聚变反应中,1升海水中的氘释放 出的能量相当于300升汽油完全燃烧所释放的能量。与核裂变不同,核聚变反应不会产生核废料和辐射 尘埃等,也不会产生碳排放。核聚变一旦条件失效,反应会瞬间停止,就像关掉水龙头一样安全。这些 特性让可控核聚变被誉为"人类终极能源"。 "可以 ...