三元生物 20251124 摘要 美国对赤藓糖醇征收高额预交关税（462%）导致直接出口受阻，但因 美国市场刚性需求和三仁生物品牌效应，产品通过转口贸易维持部分销 量，1-9 月美国市场销量同比下降 25%。 针对美国反倾销，部分客户提起诉讼，若法院裁定特定复配产品不在反 倾销范围内，将有助于合法出口。美国政府停摆导致裁决推迟，预计未 来一年内有结果，同时，企业积极探索通过邻国转口贸易。 欧盟对三仁生物征收较高反倾销税，导致直接出口停滞。公司通过调整 产品配方，生产含 90%以下阿洛酮糖的赤藓糖醇复配产品以规避关税， 并逐步被客户接受，需求量增加。 国内赤藓糖醇价格维持在每公斤 1.2-1.3 美元的底部水平，行业库存普 遍不大，企业多以销定产。公司虽主动降价促销，但通过扩大销量和成 本控制，基本维持了运营效果，预计 2025 年业绩与 2024 年相当。 公司通过技术改进、节能改造和自动化控制等措施降低生产成本，有效 应对欧美反倾销影响，同时积极拓展东南亚、中东和南美等新兴市场。 Q&A 今年前三季度，三仁生物在经营情况上有哪些变化？美国对行业的反倾销调查 进展如何，对公司业绩产生了哪些影响？ 欧盟对公司的 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Management - The company acknowledges the current low stock price, which deviates significantly from its intrinsic value, impacting investor confidence. Management is aware and is considering measures such as share buybacks and increasing dividend ratios to enhance shareholder value [2][6]. - The company emphasizes that market capitalization management is a core focus, involving improving governance, enhancing information disclosure, and maintaining open communication channels with investors [2][6]. - The company reported a significant impairment loss of 287 million in the third quarter, attributed to market fluctuations affecting certain business segments, while core operations remain stable [6][7]. Group 2: Project Updates and Future Plans - The D-Alulose project has been integrated into the Northwest Starch Sugar project to optimize resource allocation and enhance efficiency [7]. - The company is progressing with the 30,000-ton propylene glycol project, which is part of its biodegradable materials strategy, and will provide updates as milestones are reached [5][6]. - The D-Alulose product has garnered interest from major beverage companies, with partnerships established for product testing in various food sectors [3][4]. Group 3: Compliance and Governance - The company has submitted a written rectification report to the Anhui Securities Regulatory Commission following a directive for corrective measures, and has integrated these measures into its daily operations [6][7]. - The company is committed to transparency and compliance, ensuring that all significant developments are communicated to investors through official channels [4][6].

Core Insights - The launch of D-allulose by COFCO Group marks a significant breakthrough in China's high-end functional sugar sector, filling a gap in the domestic market and supporting the health transformation of the food industry [1][2] - D-allulose, a low-calorie sugar alternative, is expected to see substantial market growth, with a projected global market size of $14.77 million in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 14% from 2025 to 2034 [1][2] Company Developments - COFCO Group has established a comprehensive patent portfolio in the biosynthesis of D-allulose, with 17 patents covering production strains, enzyme preparations, separation processes, and overall production technology, of which 10 core patents have been authorized [2] - The company has developed a one-stop application solution and differentiated supply capabilities across various sectors, including beverages, baking, dairy, and confectionery, to accelerate the domestic application of D-allulose [2] Industry Impact - The introduction of D-allulose aligns with national public health initiatives, such as the "Weight Management Year," providing significant industrial support for the Healthy China strategy [2] - COFCO Group's commitment to innovation is reflected in its establishment of a dedicated technology innovation department and policies aimed at enhancing R&D investment and sharing benefits with researchers, fostering a collaborative ecosystem for the health food industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - COFCO Technology announced the launch of D-Tagatose products aimed at the food industry, marking a significant breakthrough in the high-end functional sugar sector [1] Group 1: Product Launch - COFCO Technology held a product launch event for D-Tagatose on September 23, 2023, in Beijing [1] - The D-Tagatose products cater to various sectors including beverages, dairy products, baking, and ready-to-drink tea and coffee [1] Group 2: R&D and Industrialization - The successful launch of D-Tagatose signifies substantial progress in the company's independent research and development as well as industrialization efforts in the high-end functional sugar market [1] Group 3: Production Capacity Planning - The company's production capacity planning is divided into three phases: - Short-term: Establishing a supply chain system with partners and utilizing existing equipment for production - Mid-term: Expanding capacity through equipment upgrades - Long-term: Building new production lines to create a complete production system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched D-Tagatose products aimed at food industry clients, marking a significant breakthrough in the high-end functional sugar sector [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The D-Tagatose product was introduced at a technology exchange and product launch event held on September 23, 2025, in Beijing [1] - The sweetness of D-Tagatose is equivalent to 70% of sucrose, while its caloric content is only 10% of that of sucrose, aligning with the trend for low-calorie sugar intake [1] Group 2: Production Process - The product utilizes an enzyme-based production process developed in collaboration with the COFCO Nutrition and Health Research Institute, ensuring a pure taste without a bitter aftertaste [1] Group 3: Market Potential - The launch signifies a substantial advancement in the company's independent research and industrialization efforts, creating favorable conditions for entering emerging markets [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 139,923.89 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.02% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders, after deducting share-based payment expenses, was 9,532.72 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.15% [3] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 71,444.25 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.63% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.33% [3] Product Performance - The three core products (prebiotics, dietary fiber, and sugar-reducing sweeteners) generated revenue of 66,354.78 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.15% [3] - Sugar-reducing sweeteners achieved revenue of 37,152.41 million yuan, growing by 61.22% [3] - Prebiotics generated revenue of 18,867.03 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.23% [3] - The revenue share of the three core products accounted for 47.42% of total revenue, an increase of 5.07% compared to the previous year [3] Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 improved to 13.17%, up by 1.36% from the previous year [3] - The gross margin for the three core products was 17.94%, an increase of 1.93% year-on-year [3] - The company implemented cost control measures, including optimizing production processes and enhancing supply chain management to mitigate rising raw material costs [4] Business Development - In 2024, the company established projects for the annual production of 2,000 tons of DHA algae oil and 2,500 tons of HMOs (human milk oligosaccharides), which are expected to commence production in the second half of 2025 [5] - The company received approval for its HMO application as a new food nutrition fortifier in July 2025 [5] - The company is actively pursuing new product development in the field of synthetic biology, with several patents and trademarks registered in the first half of 2025 [6] Market Trends - The company noted that corn prices have been fluctuating, impacting production costs and gross margins [8] - The company’s products are primarily used in beverages, dairy products, functional foods, and health products, which typically do not exhibit significant seasonality [8] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a subsidiary in the United States is part of the company's strategy to enhance international business operations [9] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and product offerings in the field of synthetic biology and prebiotics [7]

Core Insights - The crystallized fructose industry in China has experienced rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 103 million yuan in 2019 to 196 million yuan in 2024, driven by its low glycemic index and suitability for sugar-sensitive populations [1][14]. Industry Overview - Crystallized fructose is a monosaccharide, an isomer of glucose, with a sweetness level 1.2 to 1.8 times that of sucrose. It is naturally found in fruits, honey, and the juices of grains, and is characterized by low caloric value and quick metabolism in the body [3]. - The main product types in the market include crystallized fructose powder and liquid crystallized fructose, with the powder being the primary form [4]. Industry Chain - The upstream raw materials for crystallized fructose production include corn and sugarcane, with corn being a significant source through starch sugar pathways. The industry chain encompasses production, processing, and application in sectors such as food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and health products [6]. Market Demand - The food and beverage industry is the primary application area for crystallized fructose, used in various products like carbonated drinks, fruit juices, and energy drinks. The market for the food and beverage industry in China is expected to reach 12.14 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 3.61% year-on-year increase [10]. Competitive Landscape - The crystallized fructose market is competitive, with leading companies leveraging brand influence and production scale. Emerging firms are expanding their market share through technological innovation and differentiated products. Key players include Baolingbao Biological, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan, and Anhui Hongchang Sugar Industry Technology [16][19]. Industry Trends - The precision control of particle size in crystallized fructose production is expected to improve, enhancing product diversity and market adaptability [21]. - The application of crystallized fructose is anticipated to expand beyond traditional food and beverage sectors into pharmaceuticals and health products, with potential uses in specialized foods and pet nutrition [22]. - Continuous technological advancements are necessary to improve production efficiency and product quality, addressing the industry's growing demand [23].

Group 1: Approval and Safety Standards - The approved daily intake of allulose by the FDA is 33 grams, while the National Health Commission (NHC) of China has set it at 20 grams, reflecting stricter domestic standards [2][3] - The approval process for allulose took approximately two years for the company, involving safety evaluations by both the Ministry of Agriculture and the NHC [1][2] Group 2: Market Potential and Product Development - The future market potential for allulose is estimated to be between 150,000 to 200,000 tons over the next 3 to 5 years, particularly in beverages, baking, dairy products, and sauces [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing enzyme costs and production processes, as well as conducting extensive research on the application of allulose in various food products [2][3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company holds a first-mover advantage in market access, which is crucial for future development [3] - The core competencies include a strong R&D platform for synthetic biology and a comprehensive industrial layout, particularly in the sugar raw materials sector [3] Group 4: Customer Interaction and Market Readiness - There is significant interest from downstream customers, including tea and dairy companies, indicating a readiness to purchase allulose products once approved for domestic use [2][3] - The company is prepared to offer allulose in both liquid and solid forms based on customer needs and cost assessments [4]