玉米和淀粉年报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 年后玉米供应仍偏紧 新季种植成本上升 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 第二部分 | 行情回归及国际玉米基本面 | 3 | | 一、国内外玉米行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、全球玉米供应压力减弱，重心会上移 | | 4 | | 三、美玉米陈作供应宽松，预计新季产量下降 | | 5 | | 四、巴西玉米产量稳定，出口较好 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | 国内玉米基本面分析 | 7 | | 一、25/26 | 年度玉米供应仍偏紧，26/27 | 年度种植成本上升 7 | | 二、饲料需求小幅下滑，玉米用量仍较高 | | 8 | | 三、玉米处于高位，深加工利润会下滑 | | 10 | | 四、南北方港口库存会持续上升 | | 13 | | 五、玉米和淀粉交易逻辑 | | 13 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 15 | | 免责声明 | | 16 | 玉米和淀粉研发报告 证监许可[2011]1428 ...

来源：中国农业发展银行 编者按： 为深入贯彻落实习近平总书记关于国家粮食安全的重要论述精神，认真做好"十四 五"服务国家粮食安全收官工作，中国农业发展银行充分发挥农业政策性银行职能作用，各 粮食产区分支机构全力做好秋粮收购信贷支持，坚决夯实粮食安全根基。农发行微信公众号 设立"秋粮收购专报"专栏，选择十家粮食主产省省级分行，为您介绍农发行服务当地秋粮收 购的工作举措和成效。下一步，农发行将以秋粮收购为契机，全力推动粮棉油信贷业务高质 量发展，持续为保障国家粮食安全贡献政策性金融力量。 河北分行：聚焦"产购储加销"全链条 做好秋粮信贷工作 农发行河北省分行深入贯彻总行服务国家粮食安全会议精神，锚定金融服务国家粮食安全主力银行职能 定位，以支持"产购储加销"全链条为抓手，精准施策应对连阴雨天气影响，全面落实总行"三保三强"要 求，全力保障秋粮收购工作有序推进，让秋粮收购既有"资金温度"，更有"产业深度"，为守护国家粮食 安全、推动河北粮食产业高质量发展注入金融动能。今年以来，累计发放各类粮棉油贷款304亿元，贷 款余额达到642亿元，较年初净增100亿元，支持收购粮食356亿斤。 购储筑基 信贷托底筑稳"燕赵粮仓 ...

Key Points - The article highlights various significant announcements from companies, including investment projects, share buybacks, and contract wins [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Announcements - Qin'an Co., Ltd. has a small external circulation and a high recent turnover rate, indicating potential risks [1][2] - Rongtai Health plans to acquire a 21% stake in Youmo Youyang for 42 million yuan [2] - Huaitong Holdings intends to invest 1 billion yuan to construct 900,000 high-end new energy vehicle styling components and acoustic products [1][2] Group 2: Investment Projects - COFCO Technology plans to invest in a new project for 250,000 tons/year of starch sugar and 10,000 tons/year of alulose in Pingliang [1] - Haili Wind Power aims to collaborate on the construction and operation of the Wenzhou mother port phase one project [1] - Wolong New Energy proposes an 800 million yuan investment for a 200,000 kW/1.2 million kWh grid-side independent energy storage demonstration project in Baotou [1] Group 3: Contract Wins - Wansheng Intelligent has won a contract worth 42.9866 million yuan from the State Grid [1] - Teruid has a pre-bid for a railway project valued at 94.8792 million yuan [1] - China Electric Environmental Protection signed a contract for a 125.7 million yuan water treatment project for Shanxi Coal Chemical [1] Group 4: Share Buybacks - Huaitong Holdings plans to repurchase shares worth 30 million to 50 million yuan [2] - Yongtai Energy intends to repurchase shares for 300 million to 500 million yuan for cancellation [2] Group 5: Shareholding Changes - Hengyi Petrochemical's controlling shareholder and its concerted parties plan to increase their holdings by 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion yuan [3] - Multiple shareholders of Green通科技 plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4% [3] - Shareholders of Chip Origin plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.15% [3]

Core Viewpoint - COFCO Technology (000930.SZ) has approved the investment in a new project for the construction of a 250,000 tons/year starch sugar and 10,000 tons/year D-alloheptulose production facility in Pingliang, with a total investment of approximately 880.0371 million yuan [1] Investment Details - The total investment for the project is 880.0371 million yuan, which includes construction investment of 812.8799 million yuan, interest during the construction period of 13.8349 million yuan, and working capital of 53.3223 million yuan [1] - The project will include the construction of a starch sugar workshop, D-alloheptulose workshop, bottle washing and filling workshop, wastewater treatment facility, finished product warehouse, and tank area [1] Production Capacity - Upon completion, the project is expected to achieve a product scale of 150,000 tons/year of fructose syrup, 100,000 tons/year of glucose syrup, and 10,000 tons/year of D-alloheptulose [1]

人民财讯12月1日电，中粮科技（000930）12月1日公告，为积极拓展功能糖等产业，补足西北区域淀粉 糖布局空白，公司拟投资8.8亿元建设平凉25万吨/年淀粉糖及1万吨/年阿洛酮糖新建项目，建设周期为 自董事会批复项目之日至投料试车共20个月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - COFCO Technology announced plans to invest in a new project for starch sugar and D-alloheptulose production, aiming to enhance its capacity and fill market gaps in the northwest region of China [2] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves the construction of a 250,000 tons/year starch sugar and 10,000 tons/year D-alloheptulose facility [2] - Total investment for the project is set at 880 million yuan [2] - The construction period is estimated to be 20 months, with funding sourced from equity and bank loans [2] Group 2: Production Capacity - Upon completion, the facility will have a production capacity of 150,000 tons/year of fructose syrup, 100,000 tons/year of glucose syrup, and 10,000 tons/year of D-alloheptulose [2] - The project aligns with the company's "14th Five-Year" capacity planning and aims to expand into functional sugars and other strategic new industries [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China. New - grain sales are relatively fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract continued to rebound. The spot price increased, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan rising from 2,165 yuan/ton to around 2,205 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port rising from 2,250 yuan/ton to around 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The corn basis first weakened and then strengthened, with the futures slightly at a discount. The main starch 2601 contract continued to rebound. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated weakly [4]. Supply Side - Farmers are somewhat reluctant to sell, but new - grain sales are still fast. The national corn output increased to 300 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Due to the differentiation of grain quality in North China and other regions, the market mostly stocks up in Northeast China. The price increase in the Northeast region has made farmers reluctant to sell, and it is easier to store after the temperature drops. As of November 13, the national new - grain sales progress was 24%, 1% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the sales progress in the Northeast region was 19%, 2% faster than the same period last year; in North China, it was 23%, the same as the same period last year; in Northwest China, it was 46%, 3% faster than the same period last year. At the new - grain listing node, imported corn was auctioned again, and Sinograin entered the market to purchase for rotation, which affected the new - grain purchase and sales rhythm [4]. Demand and Inventory - After the corn price increase, downstream enterprises slowed down their procurement. As of November 7, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.071 million tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 582,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 454,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 412,000 tons, both rising from the previous week. As of November 14, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 273,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, an increase from the previous week [5]. Substitute and Import - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain at a low level. The price difference between wheat and corn remains above 200 yuan, so wheat does not have a substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. However, Sino - US trade is improving, and mutual tax cuts have been implemented, with a basic tariff of 10% still retained. There is a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn due to the auction of imported corn in the domestic market [5]. External Market - The US corn in the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The US government will end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the latest supply - demand report. The US corn harvest may be basically over, with high production pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of China importing US corn [5]. Downstream Demand - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is good. Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to incur losses. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 205.64 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. Market pressure on pigs for slaughter and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase from the same period last year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen again, and egg - chicken farming continues to incur losses. The sales volume of chicks has decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly. Feed demand remains strong. Deep - processing enterprises have good demand. Starch - processing enterprises continue to make profits, and the operating rate is rising. As of November 14, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 63.48% and continued to rise. Starch inventory remains at a high level. Alcohol - processing enterprises are suffering large losses, and the operating rate remains high at 67.29%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Baolingbao has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in both stock price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, Baolingbao's stock price increased by 2.16% to 11.36 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.22 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.94%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 4.323 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Baolingbao's stock price has risen by 55.19%, with a 15.56% increase over the last five trading days, 13.94% over the last 20 days, and 5.87% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds was 6.5193 million CNY, with large orders showing a buy of 19.1894 million CNY (15.72% of total) and a sell of 23.0777 million CNY (18.91% of total) [1]. - Baolingbao has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent instance on May 22, where the net buy was -50.8373 million CNY [1]. Group 3: Company Overview - Baolingbao Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was established on October 16, 1997, and listed on August 28, 2009, focusing on the research, production, and sales of functional sugars [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes starch sugars and others (29.89%), sugar-reducing sweeteners (26.55%), feed and by-products (22.40%), probiotics (13.48%), dietary fiber (7.39%), and others (0.29%) [2]. - As of October 31, the number of shareholders was 33,600, a decrease of 0.25%, with an average of 10,999 circulating shares per person, an increase of 0.25% [2]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baolingbao achieved a revenue of 2.126 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million CNY, up by 32.58% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Baolingbao has distributed a total of 309 million CNY in dividends, with 95.0722 million CNY distributed over the past three years [2].

Core Viewpoint - COFCO Technology (000930) announced on October 29 that it will integrate D-Allulose with its existing starch sugar projects to leverage "synergistic effects" based on industrial patterns and resource allocation considerations [1] Group 1 - The integration aims to better control risks and improve efficiency [1] - The company will provide updates on the project's specific progress through future announcements [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain harvest is in the second half, with significant pressure from increased production in Northeast China and damaged grain quality due to mold in North China. Demand is strong, and there may be a shortage of high - quality corn in the later period. It is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality wet grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - Corn main contract 2601 oscillated and stabilized. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan rose from 2150 yuan/ton to around 2180 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port remained stable at around 2310 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, with the futures slightly at a discount. - Starch main contract 2601 stopped falling and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened oscillating [4]. Supply - side Situation - **Grain Quality Differentiation**: In the second half of the autumn harvest, grain quality differentiated. Corn production increased in Northeast China, and the harvest was nearing completion with good quality but pressure from increased supply. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, previous continuous rainy weather led to poor grain quality such as mold and germination. High - quality corn in Northeast China was favored, and the public auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation had a large - volume transaction. On October 20, 14,217 tons were put up for auction and all were sold [4]. - **Channel Inventory**: As of October 17, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 959,000 tons and continued to rise; the weekly shipping volume reached a high of 804,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to decline to 118,000 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory rebounded to 362,000 tons. The inventory of downstream enterprises varied. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, reaching 2.622 million tons as of October 24, while the corn inventory of feed enterprises decreased to 24.04 days, remaining at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Grain Substitution and Imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn widened to around 200, and wheat lost its substitution advantage. The auction of policy rice stopped. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80.7%; from January to September, a total of 936,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, imports were expected to remain low [5]. - **Foreign Market**: The US corn in the foreign market oscillated and rebounded. There was significant pressure from the concentrated harvest of US corn, and production increased. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture's reports were suspended [5]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed Demand**: Pig prices were low, and pig farming suffered large losses. As of October 17, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 244.7 yuan per head. Even leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan had started to incur losses. Policy regulation of production capacity was lagging and insufficient, and short - term inventory reduction was difficult. Although the inventory of breeding sows had been adjusted downward, the adjustment was small, and the overall progress was slow, far from the regulation target. Pig inventory might still increase inertia. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell again, and egg - chicken farming suffered losses again. The inventory of laying hens in production increased in September. The loss and cycle of egg - chicken farming were insufficient, leading to a delay in production - capacity adjustment. In September, the feed production volume was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production volume was 246.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Feed demand remained strong [6]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises might pick up, and the peak season was gradually approaching. A large amount of low - priced moldy corn could only enter the deep - processing sector, significantly reducing the cost of deep - processing enterprises. The starch - processing profit was fully profitable, and the operating rate increased. As of October 17, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 55.62%, showing an overall upward trend recently. Starch inventory decreased. Some alcohol - processing enterprises had profits, and the operating rate increased to 61.67%, also showing an overall upward trend recently. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises was weak, while that of paper - making enterprises was strong [7].