锂电涨价环节：隔膜板块深度汇报 20251116 摘要 隔膜行业或迎新一轮涨价，已涨价客户或面临第二轮涨价，新价格立即 生效。隔膜产品周期性长，扩产周期较长，预计 2026 年下半年起可能 出现紧缺，价格上行周期或持续至 2027 年。 锂电板块库存周期于 2024 年一季度触底回升，隔膜环节目前处于被动 去库阶段，对应复苏期。若存货拐点向上，则进入主动补库，标志着锂 电行业进入繁荣期。 隔膜产品经历四轮降价后，自 8 月反内卷会议后价格快速反转，上涨约 10%，结束三年通缩周期。目前隔膜行业稼动率有所回升，头部公司如 星源、恩捷等稼动率已接近满产。 干法隔膜增速放缓至 18%，湿法隔膜受益于储能需求增速达 30%。大 电芯趋势及安全性要求提升带动超薄涂布湿法隔膜需求增加，宁德时代 和比亚迪内部也有干法转向湿法趋势。 头部隔膜供应商扩产保守，有效新增产能预计 2027 年或更晚投放市场， 是当前涨价持续性的重要原因。若投资回报率不能恢复至合理水平，难 以支撑新的扩产计划。 当前隔膜行业的稼动率和集中度如何？ 目前隔膜行业稼动率有所回升。在 22 年的时候稼动率已达到 80%，基本满产。 今年以来头部公司的稼动 ...

Group 1 - Recent global asset pullbacks are attributed to liquidity contraction, with both safe-haven and risk assets experiencing declines [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has slowed the pace of capital return to the market, resulting in a liquidity gap of $150 billion to $180 billion [1] - The balance of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) increased by $152.9 billion from the last week of September to the last week of October [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's reasonable valuation center is estimated to be between 6900 and 6950, indicating no significant valuation burden on U.S. stocks [2] - The core logic behind potential Fed rate cuts remains in a high-certainty phase, limiting the downside for Hong Kong stocks and presenting good investment opportunities [2] - Strong sectors such as semiconductors (especially memory chips) and materials (primarily non-ferrous metals) are expected to face greater opportunities following liquidity recovery [2] Group 3 - In the lithium battery sector, leading membrane manufacturers are operating at full capacity, with supply constraints expected to create a supply-demand gap next year [3] - The production capacity of top-tier companies is projected to reach over 95% utilization by 2026, while the top five companies will maintain over 90% utilization in the next six months [3] - An industry closed-door meeting resulted in agreements on price discipline and limited capacity expansion, leading to successful price increases for some products in September [3] Group 4 - As the year-end approaches, the industry is beginning negotiations for 2026 supply and pricing, with upstream supply constraints potentially leading top companies to adopt dynamic pricing strategies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xingyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. has faced a significant decline in its net profit margin, leading to a non-recurring net profit loss for the second consecutive quarter, primarily due to rising financial costs and asset impairment losses [2][4][7]. Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a non-recurring net profit loss of 27.7 million yuan, a 130.84% decrease compared to 89.8 million yuan in the same period last year, marking the lowest profit level in five years [2][4]. - The company's net profit margin fell to 1.8% in Q3 and 4.75% for the first three quarters of 2025, down 8.71 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's non-recurring net profit was only 15.86 million yuan, a 94.06% decline compared to 267 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5]. Industry Context - The lithium battery separator market has been under pressure due to price wars and increased production capacity, with the overall industry operating below the breakeven line in the first half of 2025 [2][4]. - The industry capacity utilization rate dropped to 53% in Q1 2025, indicating significant challenges for profitability across the sector [4]. Financial Challenges - Financial expenses for the company reached 149 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 177.88% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising interest expenses and foreign exchange losses [6][7]. - Asset impairment losses amounted to 29.13 million yuan, a staggering 14,294.69% increase, largely due to increased inventory write-downs [6][7]. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its global production capacity, with plans to reach 16 billion square meters by 2027, while also emphasizing the importance of overseas markets [8][9]. - The company is currently constructing factories in Foshan, Malaysia, and Sweden, with expectations of significant production increases in the coming years [8][9]. - The company aims to enhance its profitability by targeting high-margin overseas markets, where the gross profit margin is significantly higher compared to domestic sales [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming change in control of Cangzhou Mingzhu, driven by a share transfer agreement with Guangzhou Light Industry Group, which is expected to enhance the company's market competitiveness and optimize its capital structure [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Share Transfer and Control Change - Cangzhou Mingzhu's stock price surged by 10.08% to 4.26 CNY per share following the announcement of a share transfer agreement on October 16 [2][3]. - The agreement involves Guangzhou Light Industry acquiring 10% of shares and obtaining voting rights for an additional 9.58% of shares, totaling 19.58% voting rights post-transaction [6][7]. - The share transfer price is set at 4.263 CNY per share, leading to an estimated cash-out of approximately 710 million CNY for the current controlling shareholder [6][7]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Position - Cangzhou Mingzhu, established in 1995 and listed in 2007, specializes in PE pipes, BOPA films, and lithium-ion battery separators, ranking among the top ten in lithium battery separator shipments in China [10][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.319 billion CNY in the first half of the year, a 6.88% increase year-on-year, but faced a decline in net profit by 6.15% [11][12]. - The competitive landscape in the lithium battery industry has intensified, prompting Cangzhou Mingzhu to seek state-owned capital to optimize its operations and enhance its market position [12]. Group 3: Industry Demand and Future Prospects - The demand for lithium battery separators is expected to grow, with major battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD expanding their production capacity [14][16]. - The entry of state-owned capital is anticipated to strengthen Cangzhou Mingzhu's strategic positioning in the new energy sector, coinciding with a rising trend in separator prices due to supply-demand imbalances [16][17]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the lithium battery market, with its production capacity set to increase in the coming years [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The diaphragm industry is undergoing a transformation from blind expansion to a return to healthy development, with a consensus on price discipline and capacity regulation reached during an industry meeting in late August [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late August, the overall price of wet diaphragms has increased by approximately 7%, with expectations for continued price rebounds due to industry restructuring and supply-demand dynamics [2]. - Leading diaphragm manufacturers have initiated price hikes, which are now spreading to second-tier producers, focusing on customer structure optimization and order price increases to enhance profitability [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Profitability - Currently, only 2-3 companies in the diaphragm industry are profitable, while the majority, including leading company Enjie, reported losses, with Enjie’s loss reaching -93 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The widespread losses in the industry are not conducive to sustainable development, and recent price increases are aimed at reversing this trend [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Structure - Global demand for lithium batteries is expected to exceed expectations in 2025, driven by new vehicle demand and rapid growth in the global energy storage market [3]. - Despite an overall supply surplus, there are structural supply contradictions, particularly among the top three diaphragm manufacturers, whose new capacity is limited, leading to high capacity utilization rates projected to exceed 95% in 2026 [3]. Group 4: Industry Feedback - Diaphragm manufacturers are implementing significant price increases, with average hikes in the double digits, while battery manufacturers express concerns over the steep price increases and the need to ensure supply continuity [4][5]. - Battery manufacturers are facing challenges in securing diaphragm supplies, as the certification process for new suppliers can take at least a quarter, complicating their ability to switch suppliers [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a continued tightening of supply, with top manufacturers maintaining full production status and limited new capacity, leading to a forecasted capacity utilization rate of over 85% in the wet diaphragm sector [10].

Group 1 - The solid-state battery industry is set to hold a significant event, the CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition and Industry Annual Conference, from November 6-8, 2025, in Guangzhou, with over 200 exhibitors and 20,000 professional attendees expected [2] - The lithium battery separator industry shows a positive trend in revenue growth, with over 50% of companies reporting year-on-year revenue increases in the first half of 2025, particularly notable is the 26.48% revenue growth of China National Materials [3][30] - The highest gross margin in the lithium battery separator sector is reported by Purtai at 32.10%, while Dongfeng shares the lowest at 4.08% [3][4] Group 2 - The net profit of the lithium battery separator industry has generally decreased due to ongoing price reductions, with only China National Materials, Purtai, and Dongfeng reporting increases in net profit and net margin [5][20] - Purtai achieved a revenue of 13.19 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 6.88% increase, while net profit decreased by 6.15% [24][36] - China National Materials reported a significant revenue increase of 26.48% to 133.3 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 114.92% to 9.99 billion yuan [30][31] Group 3 - The shipment volume of lithium battery separators showed positive growth in the first half of 2025, with Purtai and China National Materials reporting increases of 63.85% and 60% respectively [8][9] - The company Star Source Materials, a leader in lithium-ion battery separator production, reported a revenue of 18.98 billion yuan, a 14.78% increase, but a net profit decline of 58.53% [13][14] - Enjie Co., as a leading enterprise in the lithium battery separator industry, reported a revenue of 57.63 billion yuan, a 20.48% increase, but a significant net profit decline of 131.99% [20][21] Group 4 - The company Cangzhou Mingzhu, which has developed both dry and wet separator technologies, reported a revenue of 344.64 million yuan, a 19.88% increase, while maintaining stable gross margins [22][23] - Longyang Technology experienced a revenue decline of 18.81% to 52.53 million yuan, with a net profit of -0.09 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop [52][53] - Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 1,039 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.68%, with a net profit of 30.5 billion yuan, down 24.08% [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Enjie Co., Ltd., is experiencing strong order volumes and high capacity utilization, with stable growth in downstream customer demand and orders, indicating potential for increased shipments by 2025 [2] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has abundant orders on hand and high capacity utilization, with downstream demand showing stable growth [2] - The second half of the year is typically a peak season for separator demand, and with the anticipated stable growth in downstream demand, the company's separator capacity may become slightly tight [2] - The separator industry has seen a significant slowdown in new capacity additions, leading to a convergence of the oversupply situation as demand continues to grow, potentially leading to a balanced supply state in the future [2] Group 2: Overseas Market Advantages - The company is one of the earliest players in the Chinese lithium battery supply chain to establish overseas production capacity, having started the construction of its Hungary Phase I project in 2020 with a capacity of 400 million square meters, and announced a U.S. factory project in January 2024 with a capacity of 700 million square meters [2] - The company has a well-established intellectual property (IP) system, holding multiple proprietary and Teijin-authorized patents, and has laid out patents in several countries including Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Europe, ensuring supply security and stability for customers [2] - The company maintains long-term deep cooperation with globally renowned battery manufacturers and has cultivated overseas sales channels for many years [2]

Group 1: Company Advantages in Overseas Markets - The company has established overseas production capacity and has numerous international clients and orders, along with a robust intellectual property (IP) framework [2] - The company is one of the earliest in China's lithium battery industry to expand overseas, with a 400 million square meter production capacity project in Hungary initiated in 2020 and a 700 million square meter coating film production project in the U.S. announced in January 2024 [2] - The company maintains long-term partnerships with globally recognized battery manufacturers, enhancing its global market share and leadership in the separator industry [3] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The company currently operates at a high capacity utilization rate, leading the industry, with expectations of increased demand in the second half of the year [4] - The separator industry is experiencing a slowdown in new capacity additions, which, combined with stable demand growth, is expected to lead to a balance in supply and demand in the future [4] Group 3: Order Status and Production Capacity - The company has a robust order backlog and high capacity utilization, with stable growth in downstream customer demand and orders, particularly in the energy storage sector [5] - Domestic production bases include multiple locations such as Shanghai, Zhuhai, Wuxi, and others, with a dry separator base in Jiangxi having an annual capacity of 1 billion square meters [6] Group 4: Solid-State Material Development - The company is actively developing semi-solid battery separator capabilities through its subsidiary Jiangsu Sanhe Battery Material Technology Co., Ltd., which has the capacity for mass production [7] - In the all-solid-state battery materials sector, the company’s subsidiary Hunan Enjie Frontier New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on high-purity lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte products, with a pilot line for high-purity lithium sulfide already established [7]

Group 1 - Strong downstream demand and continuous over-expected lithium battery production data, with an estimated growth of over 15% quarter-on-quarter in lithium battery production by Q3 2025 [1] - The membrane industry has reached a consensus to avoid selling below cost and to refrain from blind expansion, leading to a reduction in expansion plans among some companies [2] - The top two companies in the membrane industry have reached full production capacity, indicating a tight supply-demand balance among leading enterprises [2] Group 2 - The demand for energy storage has exceeded expectations, with global energy storage cell shipments reaching 240 GWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 106% [3] - The shift from policy-driven to profit-driven markets in domestic energy storage is leading to a shortage of high-quality storage products [3] - The market for wet-process membranes is expected to increase, driven by higher safety and performance requirements for energy storage and fast-charging applications [4] Group 3 - The membrane industry is likely to see a price turning point due to tight capacity among leading enterprises and limited supply release [2] - Leading companies are actively developing next-generation coated membranes, enhancing product competitiveness and potentially increasing industry concentration [4] - The strong order backlog for leading energy storage manufacturers is expected to sustain robust production in the near term [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The lithium battery production is expected to grow by over 15% quarter-on-quarter by Q3 2025, driven by strong downstream demand [2]. - The lithium separator industry is anticipated to reach a price turning point due to recent agreements among companies to avoid below-cost sales and unnecessary capacity expansion [8][17]. - The head companies in the separator industry are experiencing tight capacity, with the top two companies operating at full capacity, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation [8][17]. - The global energy storage market is witnessing significant growth, with a 106% year-on-year increase in global energy storage cell shipments in the first half of 2025 [24]. - The report highlights the increasing performance requirements for separators, particularly in fast-charging applications and energy storage systems, which may lead to a higher market concentration [28]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 300 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 621.54 billion [4]. Key Companies and Financial Metrics - Key companies include Enjie Technology, Xingyuan Material, China National Materials, and Fospower Technology, with varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4]. Separator Industry Dynamics - The separator industry is currently facing widespread losses, with only a few companies like Xingyuan Material remaining profitable [8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to avoid price wars and unnecessary capacity expansion, which is expected to stabilize prices [17]. Downstream Demand - The energy storage sector is experiencing unexpected demand growth, with significant increases in orders and shipments [24][25]. - The domestic market is transitioning from policy-driven to market-driven growth, enhancing the overall demand for energy storage solutions [25][26]. Performance Requirements and Innovations - The report notes that the demand for high-quality separators is increasing due to safety and performance requirements in fast-charging and energy storage applications [28]. - Companies are actively exploring new technologies and markets, such as solid-state batteries and semiconductor materials, to diversify their offerings and mitigate risks from slowing lithium battery demand [29].