大摩闭门会-中国制造业的主导地位、经济工作会议前瞻， 以及韩元走弱的启示 20251211 摘要 中国全球制造业出口份额预计将从 15%增至 16.5%，乐观情况下可能 达到 18%，受益于研发投入增加和 STEM 人才优势，以及在高增长细分 市场（如电动汽车）的领先地位。 尽管中美贸易紧张，中国通过增加与其他主要经济体的贸易顺差，抵消 了对美贸易逆差的影响，维持了在全球制造供应链中的地位。 美国《国防授权法》虽未明确提及中国 CDMO 供应商，但仍存在未来被 列入名单的风险，不过新版本提供了申诉途径，投资者应关注公司基本 面。 预计 2026 年中国 GDP 目标维持在 5%左右，政策仍以稳定国内需求为 主，一万亿人民币刺激措施将延续，官方预算设定约为 GDP 的 4%。 韩国韩元贬值虽短期内可能提高出口竞争力，但长期影响减弱，且对通 胀带来负面影响，预计 2026 年通胀率维持在 2.1%左右。 预计韩元因美联储降息和韩国经济基本面改善而反弹，美元兑韩元汇率 将在 2026 年第二季度末下降到 1,410 左右，股市对美元走势敏感性增 加。 CDMOs 通过分散供应链，如在美国和新加坡建立生产基地，以应对 ...

8 December 2025 | 9:51PM HKT Equity Research CHINA HEALTHCARE CDMOS Biosecure Act included in FY26 NDAA final text: in line with our base case, with positive definition refinement Provisions from the US Biosecure Act included within the 2026 NDAA (released on Dec 7th, ET) were in line with our and market expectations, despite recent news flow volatility. We see the final text featuring a more precise definition (see content comparison in Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2), notably requiring a 'biotech company of conc ...

Key Takeaways December and January will be event-heavy: Based on historical precedent, by late December, Congress and Senate are expected to align on the latest version of the Biosecure Act. This amended version (versus last year's) does not mention the WuXis and provides due process should any company be deemed a "biotech company of concern" in the future (note). Given recent proposed updates to the 1260H list under the Department of Defense (citation), we see passage of the amended, more moderate form of ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare, specifically focusing on Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs) in the biopharma sector - **Outlook**: The industry is expected to benefit from robust biopharma out-licensing activity and a recovery in early-stage financing [1][5] Company-Specific Insights WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd (603259.SS) - **Upcoming Events**: - **Broker Healthcare Conference**: Scheduled for January 12, 2026, where management will discuss the 2026 outlook [8] - **US Biosecure Act**: Expected updates in Q4 2025, with no mention of Chinese companies in the amended version [8] - **Financial Advisory**: Morgan Stanley is advising WuXi AppTec on the acquisition of its site management and contract research organization businesses by Hillhouse Capital Group [2] WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (2268.HK) - **Reporting**: Anticipated positive profit alert in Q1 2026, with a high likelihood of beating market estimates [8] - **FDA Inspection**: First inspection expected in Q2 2026, which could lead to significant commercial contracts [8] WuXi Biologics Cayman Inc (2269.HK) - **Similar Events**: Participation in the Broker Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, and updates on the US Biosecure Act [8] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **WuXi XDC Cayman Inc**: - Valuation based on discounted cash flow (DCF) with a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 5% [9] - **WuXi Biologics Cayman Inc**: - Valuation also based on DCF with a WACC of 8.4% and a terminal growth rate of 4% [10] - **WuXi AppTec Co Ltd**: - Valuation using DCF with a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 4% [11] Risks and Opportunities Upside Risks - Increasing orders across all drug development stages - Successful launch of blockbuster products - Improved gross margins from new facilities [13] Downside Risks - Potential deceleration in biotech funding - Missed sales expectations for late-stage and commercial contracts - Geopolitical risks and IP protection issues [14] Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - **Overall Industry View**: Attractive, indicating positive expectations for the sector's performance over the next 12-18 months [5][39] - **Stock Ratings**: Various companies within the China healthcare sector have been rated, with a significant portion rated as Overweight [76] Conclusion - The China healthcare sector, particularly CDMOs, is poised for growth driven by favorable market conditions and strategic company developments. Key players like WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries are expected to capitalize on upcoming catalysts, while also facing inherent risks that could impact their performance.

November 21, 2025 09:01 AM GMT China Healthcare - The WuXi Group | Asia Pacific At the Cutting Edge; Top Pick WuXi AppTec A The sector has sold off since mid-September, following a strong year-to-date rally, as investors take profit and await confirmatory signals for 2026 performance. Leading indicators for China's top CDMOs have offered an early look at project momentum and earnings for 2026. Key Takeaways In our sector, WuXi AppTec is the best proxy for a global R&D spending boom, increased reliance on Ch ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **innovative drug industry** in China, focusing on the **2026 outlook** and the ongoing **internationalization** of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1][3][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Healthcare Negotiations**: Ongoing negotiations in healthcare are emphasizing tumor drugs, with innovative drugs receiving support but at potentially lower price reductions. The average price reduction for drugs is stabilizing around **60%** [2][4]. - **Commercial Insurance Directory**: The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs provides a second payment pathway for high-value drugs, benefiting CAR-T and ADC therapies [1][2]. - **Internationalization Phase 2.0**: Chinese pharmaceutical companies are entering the **2.0 phase** of internationalization, with a **60%** year-on-year increase in business development transactions, totaling **$88.26 billion** [3][5]. - **Focus on Innovative Technologies**: Key areas of focus include **ADC**, **I/O (immunotherapy)**, and **small nucleic acids**. Notable products and data releases are anticipated in these fields [1][6][7]. - **GLP-1 Market Potential**: The GLP-1 market is expected to grow significantly, with major companies like Eli Lilly, Roche, and AstraZeneca set to release critical clinical data in cardiovascular, diabetes, and obesity sectors [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Collective Procurement Policies**: The latest round of collective procurement has introduced new focus areas such as maintaining clinical stability and ensuring quality, with price reductions stabilizing [4]. - **CRO Industry Recovery**: The CRO industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in biopharmaceutical investments, particularly in the CDMO sector, which is benefiting from strong commercial demand [9][10]. - **Upstream Supply Chain and Equipment**: The domestic upstream supply chain and pharmaceutical equipment sectors are seeing improvements in profitability due to increased localization and technological upgrades [13]. - **Research Reagents Market**: The demand for research reagents is strong, driven by increased funding for research, with domestic brands improving in quality and responsiveness [14]. - **Impact of Global Expansion**: Local companies are leveraging global expansion strategies to alleviate domestic price pressures and enhance their competitive positioning in the international market [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the innovative drug industry in China.

Core Insights - The CDMO industry is experiencing a competitive landscape characterized by "head concentration, niche breakthroughs, and increasing differentiation" with leading companies like WuXi AppTec dominating the market share [1] - The growth of the peptide CDMO sector is significantly driven by the expansion of GLP-1 drugs, which has led to substantial revenue increases for several companies [4][14] - The competition is shifting from cost advantages to technological depth, with companies focusing on specialized areas like peptide CDMO to carve out their niches [1][6] Industry Overview - WuXi AppTec services 8 out of 40 small molecule drugs approved by the FDA from 2024 to the first half of 2025, indicating its irreplaceable value in the global market [1] - Other CDMO companies, such as Kelaiying and Saintno Bio, are focusing on peptide CDMO and achieving above-average growth rates, forming a "high-growth camp" within the industry [1][4] - The CXO sector saw a 12% revenue growth year-on-year in Q1 to Q3 of 2025, with net profit increasing by 58%, highlighting a positive growth trend across the industry [2] Company Performance - Kelaiying reported a total revenue of 4.63 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with peptide and oligonucleotide segments growing by 72% year-on-year, and peptide revenue increasing by over 150% [4] - Saintno Bio's revenue grew by 54% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 123%, primarily driven by its peptide business [4] - Notably, the combined sales of GLP-1 drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly reached approximately $50.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, underscoring the market's potential [4] Technological Advancements - The shift from scale advantages to technological premiums is evident, as companies must innovate to meet the complex demands of new therapies [6] - Kelaiying is leveraging its expertise in small molecule CDMO to expand into peptide and other large molecule areas, enhancing its production capabilities [8] - Companies like Nuotai Bio and Saintno Bio are developing specialized technologies for peptide synthesis, which allows them to maintain competitive advantages in the market [10][11] Market Dynamics - The entry of numerous pharmaceutical companies into the GLP-1 market has rapidly expanded the global peptide market, benefiting the peptide CDMO sector [5] - The competition is expected to evolve as the market transitions from a shortage to an oversupply, necessitating a focus on technological innovation and ecosystem building [16] - Future growth in the peptide sector may be driven by innovations in multi-target peptide drugs and the application of AI in drug design [14][15]

August 2025 Important Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements regarding future events and our future results that are subject to the safe harbor created under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other safe harbors under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements, among other things, relate to the Company's growth drivers and expected levels of our organic growth; the impact of our in ...

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The current market is transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull," indicating a favorable time to invest in cyclical sectors [6][10] - The third quarter of 2025 shows a recovery in profitability, with A-share cumulative profit growth expected to reach 11% in 2026, marking a shift to an earnings-driven bull market [14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a need for GDP growth of at least 4.1% annually, indicating a supportive environment for cyclical industries [7] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The computer industry experienced a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit rising by 47.77% [19] - The materials and manufacturing sectors showed a significant improvement in free cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 million yuan in the third quarter [16] - The TMT sector's capital expenditure (CAPEX) expansion is impacting cash flow, with a notable decrease in free cash flow by 928 million yuan in the third quarter [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Huada Jiutian reported a revenue of 8.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced government subsidies [46][47] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 41.60 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 18.51%, driven by a stable CDMO business [50][51] - New Dairy's revenue for the first three quarters reached 84.34 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 31.48%, indicating strong operational performance [53][54]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.68% [1] ETF Performance - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF (588130) rose by 4.28%, with the latest price at 1.195 yuan and a turnover rate of 13.94% [1] Stock Performance - Among the constituent stocks, three major gainers included: - 3SBio Inc. up by 20.00% - Zai Lab Ltd. up by 15.50% - EdiGene Inc. up by 14.08% - Maiwei Biopharma up by 11.54% - Rongchang Biopharma up by 10.14% - Conversely, the major decliners included: - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical down by 4.80% - Yirui Technology down by 1.59% - Bairen Medical down by 1.14% - Aohua Endoscopy down by 0.59% - Aibot Medical down by 0.40% [1] Investment Recommendations - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with differentiated innovation capabilities and global commercialization potential, as well as leading CDMO companies with high growth in new and existing orders. - The long-term logic of innovative drugs is favored, with attention on potential bottom reversal targets. - Recommendations also include low-valuation medical device companies that are expected to see performance turning points or acceleration [1]