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永安合成橡胶早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:36
- 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 12500 - 120000 15000 12000 1000000 13000 80000 11500 60000 11000 11000 40000 9000 10500 20000 7000 10000 08合约 10台约 现货 09合约 -- 7/24 -- 7/23 -- 7/22 --- 7/17 --- 6/24 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR08-09 2500 600 800 2000 400 600 1 200 200 400 1000 200 500 -200 0 -400 -20Q -500 -600 -400 -1000 -800 -600 -800 - -1500 -1000 - 2024 - 2023 -- 2024 -- · 2025 2025 2023 - 2023 - · 2024 · · 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR09-10 600 - 18000 18000 16000 16000 400 14000 14000 200 12000 12 ...
日本瑞翁,生物基丁二烯项目开工,布局两大技术路线
DT新材料· 2025-07-23 16:01
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Zeon and Yokohama Rubber to establish a pilot plant for bio-based butadiene marks a significant step towards sustainable synthetic rubber production, aiming for commercial viability by 2034 [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Butadiene is the most widely used rubber raw material globally, serving as a core monomer for various synthetic rubbers such as Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR) and Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) [2]. - SBR and BR have production capacities of 6.8 million tons/year and 5.2 million tons/year, respectively, making them the top two synthetic rubbers used in automotive tires [3]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Zeon is pursuing two main technological routes for bio-based butadiene production: 1. Ethanol-based catalytic synthesis, which faces challenges such as catalyst carbon deposition and cost-effectiveness of high-purity ethanol [5]. 2. Direct biosynthesis using enzyme catalysis or microbial metabolism, which is currently limited to laboratory stages due to complexities in metabolic pathways and high costs of engineered bacteria [6]. - The pilot plant will validate the efficiency of new catalysts in converting bio-based ethanol to butadiene, with the goal of producing polybutadiene rubber prototypes for tire testing [8]. Group 3: Market Trends - Major companies in the synthetic rubber and tire industry are increasingly investing in bio-based butadiene, primarily using ethanol as a raw material, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [4][7]. - The project is expected to complete process validation by 2030 and achieve industrialization by 2034, contributing to reduced reliance on petroleum and advancing carbon neutrality in the tire industry [8].
合成橡胶早报-20250722
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 13:18
Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: July 22, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [7][17] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on July 21 was 11,995, up 275 from the previous day and 370 from June 19 [3][13]. - The open interest of the main contract was 14,993, down 2,221 from the previous day and 9,436 from June 19 [3][13]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 87,016, down 3,349 from the previous day but up 12,030 from June 19 [3][13]. - The warrant quantity remained at 9,700, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 500 from June 19 [3][13]. - The virtual - real ratio was 7.73, down 1 from the previous day and 6 from June 19 [3][13]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread - The butadiene basis was - 145, down 125 from the previous day and 170 from June 19 [3][13]. - The butadiene basis (two - oil) decreased, with a decrease of 70 compared to previous data [3][13]. - The styrene - butadiene basis was 305, down 75 from the previous day and 120 from June 19 [3][13]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was 0, with a daily change of 0 and an increase of 5 compared to previous data [3][13]. - The 9 - 10 month spread was 25, down 5 from the previous day and unchanged from June 19 [3][13]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,850, up 150 from the previous day and 200 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,800, up 200 from the previous day and 250 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, up 300 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - CFR Northeast Asia remained at 1,425, with no change [3][13]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,730, with no change from the previous day but a decrease of 20 from June 19 [3][13]. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 372, down 233 from the previous day and 269 from June 19 [3][13]. - The futures processing profit was - 227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from June 19 [3][13]. - The import profit was - 85,993, down 2,208 from the previous day and 2,358 from June 19 [3][13]. - The export profit was - 733, down 138 from the previous day and 161 from June 19 [3][13]. BD (Butadiene) Price - The Shandong market price was 9,825, up 375 from the previous day and 460 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,600, up 150 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, up 200 from the previous day and 300 from June 19 [3][13]. - CFR China was 1,050, with no change from the previous day but a decrease of 20 from June 19 [3][13]. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit data after July 18 was not available [3][13]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 646, up 150 from the previous day and 510 from June 19 [3][13]. - The import profit was 933, up 157 from the previous day and 451 from June 19 [3][13]. - The export profit was - 1,468, down 136 from the previous day and 395 from June 19 [3][13]. Downstream Profit - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from June 19 [3][13]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 575, down 50 from the previous day and 100 from June 19 [3][13]. - The ABS production profit data after July 17 was not available [3][13]. - The SBS 791 - H production profit was 530, down 140 from the previous day and 180 from June 19 [3][13]. Spread Inter - Variety Spread - The difference between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,720, down 80 from the previous day but up 220 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between 3L rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500, down 150 from the previous day and unchanged from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between RU - BR was - 98, up 2,306 from the previous day and 9,971 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between NR - BR was - 2,243, up 2,296 from the previous day and 9,861 from June 19 [3][13]. Intra - Variety Spread - The difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from June 19 [3][13]. - The difference between styrene - butadiene 1502 and 1712 was 1,100, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from June 19 [3][13].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250721
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:30
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Contract Data - On July 18, the closing price of the main BR contract was 11720, with a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 105 [4] - The position volume of the main contract was 17214, a daily decrease of 1197 and a weekly decrease of 9080 [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 90362, a daily increase of 20978 and a weekly increase of 8066 [4] - The warehouse receipt quantity was 9700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1100 [4] - The virtual - real ratio was 8.87, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] Group 3: BR Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 380, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 105 [4] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 25, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 30, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Group 4: BR Spot Price Data - The Shandong market price was 11700, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 11600, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11700, with no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1425, with no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1730, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] Group 5: BR Processing and Import - Export Data - The spot processing profit was - 139, a daily increase of 49 and a weekly decrease of 103 [4] - The disk processing profit was - 119, with a certain change compared to previous data and a weekly decrease of 48 [4] - The import profit was - 83785, a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 146 [4] - The export profit was - 202, a daily decrease of 81 and a weekly decrease of 23 [4] Group 6: BD Price and Profit Data - The Shandong market price was 9450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 9450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR China was 1050, a daily decrease of 10 and no weekly change [4] - The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A, and the data for daily and weekly changes were not available [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 496, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 430 [4] - The import profit was 777, a daily increase of 126 and a weekly increase of 132 [4] - The export profit was - 1331, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 259 [4] Group 7: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 575, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 670, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 [4] - The ABS production profit data for July 18 and daily change were N/A [4] Group 8: Inter - variety Spread Data - RU - BR was - 2404, a daily increase of 1342 and a weekly increase of 9530 [4] - NR - BR was - 5826, a daily increase of 1287 [4] - Thai mixed - butadiene was 2800, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] - 3L - butadiene - styrene was 2650, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] Group 9: Intra - variety Spread Data - The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 was 1200, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [4]
能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:36
Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 00:41
乖 灰安期货 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 L 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 r /> e -100Q -2000 2020 2021 · 2022 2023 2024 2025 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 14000 1500 13000 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 11000 500 11000 400 10000 0 300 10000 200 -500 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 8000 0 ron 1972 11991500 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 024/12/18 025/1/29 2025/3/5 025/3/19 025/4/16 025/1/15 025/2/12 025/2/19 025/2/26 2025/4/9 025/4/23 025/1/15 025/1/29 025/2/12 025/2/19 025/2/26 025/3/12 025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/1/8 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 11:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautiously followed - up, and shipment resistance may increase. It is expected that the short - term inventory level may increase slightly. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. This week, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,625 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 24,429, a decrease of 1,865. - The synthetic rubber 8 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,900 tons, an increase of 300 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions has different changes. For example, the mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 70.36 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 68.45 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.88 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,070 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 584.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.75 US dollars/ton, and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.89%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.14%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.54%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 40.67 days, an increase of 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.76 days, a decrease of 0.72 days. - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and an increase of about 29% compared with 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market are about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. - Recently, the low - price transactions at the raw material butadiene end have gradually improved. Affected by the news of a fault in an upstream device in East China, some rigid - demand procurement has followed up with price pressure. The overall inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. [2]
广发期货日评-20250711
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 06:24
Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250710
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 00:37
顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 L 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 le 2/2 -100Q -2000 2020 2021 · 2022 2023 2024 2025 乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/10 | | | 指标 | 6/9 | 7/2 | 7/7 | 7/8 | 7/9 | 目度変化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11270 | 11260 | 11000 | 11305 | 11310 | 5 | 50 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 22981 | 27889 | 30276 | 28033 | 27783 | -250 | -106 | | | 播 TIT | 主力合约成交量 | 104086 | 89875 | 133795 | 173632 | 84323 | -89309 | -5552 | | | | 仓单数量 | 11630 | 7700 | 8100 | 8600 | 8600 ...