Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost supports the offer price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization, but the general order performance will limit the increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,840 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,780, with a week - on - week increase of 18,326. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 66.6 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.42 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 825 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 570.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or + 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [2][11][20] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Market Indicators**: On August 18, the closing price of the main contract was 11,800, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 15; the position volume was 17,454, a daily decrease of 2,902 and a weekly decrease of 10,634; the trading volume was 57,039, a daily decrease of 6,226 and a weekly decrease of 81,276; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 10,470; the virtual - real ratio was 8.34, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was - 50, with a daily and weekly change not clearly defined; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 100, a daily increase of 115 and a weekly increase of 185; the styrene - butadiene basis was 550, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 185; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 115; the 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, a daily and weekly increase of 50; the Transfar market price was 11,700, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 200; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The spot processing profit was - 79, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 111; the disk processing profit was - 29, a daily decrease of 107 and a weekly increase of 76; the import profit was - 85,265, a daily decrease of 690 and a weekly decrease of 1,418; the export profit was - 469, a daily decrease of 51 and a weekly decrease of 60 [3][12][21]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,440, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 60; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, a daily increase of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change; CFR China was 1,080, a daily and weekly increase of 10 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 306, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the import profit was 491, a daily increase and a weekly decrease of 67; the export profit was - 1,151, a daily decrease of 92 and a weekly increase of 132 [3][12][21]. Downstream Products - **Profit Indicators**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 188; the ABS production profit data was partially unavailable; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 185 [3][12][21]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 1,634, a daily increase of 2,817 and a weekly increase of 10,699; NR - BR was - 4,804, a daily increase of 2,842 and a weekly increase of 10,664; Thai mixed - butadiene was 2,850, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 30; 3L - styrene - butadiene was 2,500, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [3][12][21]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 150, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 was 1,100, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 150 [3][12][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract on August 18 was 11,800, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 15; the position volume was 17,454, a daily decrease of 2,902 and a weekly decrease of 10,634; the trading volume was 57,039, a daily decrease of 6,226 and a weekly decrease of 81,276; the warrant quantity remained unchanged at 10,470; the virtual - real ratio was 8.34, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 550 on August 18, a daily increase of 165 and a weekly increase of 185; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 115; the 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [4]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,750 on August 18, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50; the Chuanhua market price was 11,700, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The spot processing profit was - 79 on August 18, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 111; the disk processing profit was - 29, a daily decrease of 107 and a weekly increase of 76; the import profit was - 85,265, a daily decrease of 690 and a weekly decrease of 1,418; the export profit was - 469, a daily decrease of 51 and a weekly decrease of 60 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on August 18 was 9,440, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 60; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the Yangzi ex - factory price remained unchanged at 9,400; the CFR China price was 1,080, a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 10 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The carbon - four extraction profit data on August 18 was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 306, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the import profit was 491; the export profit was - 1,151, a daily decrease of 92 and a weekly increase of 132 [4]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938 on August 18, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 188; the ABS production profit data was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 185 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: On August 18, the RU - BR spread was - 1,634, a daily increase of 2,817 and a weekly increase of 10,699; the NR - BR spread was - 4,804, a daily increase of 2,842 and a weekly increase of 10,664; the Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,850, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 30; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,500, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150 on August 18, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 150 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost recently supports the supply price of butadiene rubber. The previously overhauled devices have not resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Some devices are expected to restart this week, and domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the downstream's cautious sentiment and production - sales pressure, downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, and there is still room for a slight increase as the overhauled enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, dragging down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term forecast for the br2510 contract is in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 17,454, down 2,902. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 82.5 dollars/barrel, down 0.99 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.8 dollars/barrel, down 1.16 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, up 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2] 6. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (High - cis Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market Indicators**: The closing price of the main contract on August 15 was 11815, with a daily increase of 170 and an interval increase of 300. The open interest of the main contract was 20356, a daily decrease of 3317 and an interval decrease of 2569. The trading volume of the main contract was 63265, a daily decrease of 4888 and an interval increase of 21895 [3][14][25]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11700, with no daily change and an interval increase of 100. The Chuanhua market price was 11600, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval increase of 150. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11800, with no daily change and an interval increase of 300 [3][14][25]. - **Basis and Spread**: The cis - butyl basis was - 115, a daily decrease of 170 and an interval decrease of 200. The 8 - 9 month spread was in a certain state of change, with a daily decrease of 190 and an interval decrease of 40 [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The spot processing profit was - 37, a daily increase of 51 and an interval increase of 126. The on - screen processing profit was 78, a daily increase of 221 and an interval increase of 326. The export profit was - 420, a daily increase of 3 and an interval decrease of 92 [3][14][25]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9350, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 25. The Jiangsu market price was 9300, with no daily and interval change. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9300, with no daily and interval change [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The carbon - four extraction profit had values at different times, and the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206 on August 15, with no daily change and an interval change of 0. The import profit was 468, a daily decrease of 2 and an interval increase of 86. The export profit was - 1061, a daily increase of 2 and an interval increase of 140 [3][14][25]. - **Downstream Profits**: The cis - butyl production profit was 78, a daily increase of 221 and an interval increase of 326. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 838, with no daily change and an interval increase of 288. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1145, with no daily change and an interval increase of 185 [3][14][25]. Price Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The Thailand mixed - cis - butyl spread was 2950 on August 15, a daily increase of 230 and an interval increase of 170. The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 2650, a daily increase of 200 and an interval increase of 50 [3][14][25]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between the standard and non - standard cis - butyl products was 200, with no daily change and an interval decrease of 50. The spread between styrene - butadiene 1502 and 1712 was 1000, with no daily change and an interval decrease of 50 [3][14][25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Recently, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. The previously shut - down devices have not yet resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Next week, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the cautious sentiment of downstream and the production and sales pressure of downstream, the purchase in the market may be cautious, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly this week. Some large semi - steel tire enterprises had about a week of maintenance arrangements, which dragged down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The shutdown sample enterprises of all - steel tires resumed work, and the current device production schedule has returned to the level before the shutdown, driving up the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. As the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, there is still a small room for the capacity utilization rate to increase, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, which will drag down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - The short - term of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports supply price; previous shutdown devices not fully recovered; inventory declining; next week some devices to restart, supply to increase; downstream purchase cautious, finished product inventory to rise; tire capacity utilization rate with small fluctuations, overall order average, production control to continue [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided except for the topic of "Position Analysis of the Top 20 Holders of Cis - Butadiene Rubber" [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 15, the spread between September and October of butadiene rubber was - 5 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of August 15, the warehouse receipt of cis - butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, an increase of 0 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 14, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, the basis of butadiene rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3.2.3 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 14, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 571 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 825 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, an increase of 0.33% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with last week [31] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month; as of August 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 3.65% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 14, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 30,440 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 23,450 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,990 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%; from January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemical Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract on August 14 was 11,645, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly increase of 110; the position volume was 23,673, a daily decrease of 2,884 and a weekly decrease of 2,783; the trading volume was 68,153, a daily decrease of 12,028 and a weekly increase of 8,042; the warrant quantity remained at 10,470, with a weekly increase of 160; the virtual - real ratio was 11.31, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 2 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 90 higher on the week; the 8 - 9 month spread increased by 325 on the week, and the 9 - 10 month spread decreased by 25 on the week [3][13][23]. - **Price and Profit Data**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 150; the Chuanhua market price was 11,650, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 200; the Qilu ex - factory price remained at 11,800, with a weekly increase of 300; the CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,450, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,735, a weekly decrease of 15; the spot processing profit was - 88, a daily decrease of 24 and a weekly increase of 125; the on - disk processing profit was - 143, a daily decrease of 29 and a weekly increase of 82; the import profit was - 84,482, a daily increase of 14 and a weekly decrease of 2,201; the export profit was - 427, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 139 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Data**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, a daily decrease of 75; the Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,400; the CFR China price was 1,070, a weekly decrease of 10; the carbon four extraction profit data after August 13 was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206, a daily decrease of 100 and unchanged on the week; the import profit was 475, a daily decrease of 90 and a weekly increase of 89; the export profit was - 1,066, a daily increase of 78 and a weekly increase of 137 [3][13][23]. Downstream Product Profits - The butadiene - styrene production profit remained at 838, with a weekly increase of 288; the ABS production profit was 221, a daily increase of 249 and unchanged on the week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit remained at 1,145, with a weekly increase of 185 [3][13][23]. Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 8,038, a daily increase of 2,719 and a weekly increase of 2,893; the NR - BR spread was - 11,183, a daily increase of 2,764 and a weekly increase of 2,923; the Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,720, a daily decrease of 80 and a weekly decrease of 80; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,450, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread remained at 1,000, with a weekly decrease of 100 [3][13][23].

前整体订单表现一般，企业控产仍将延续，对整体产能利用率提升幅度形成一定拖拽。br2510合约短线预 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 计在11500-12000区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11645 | -105 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 23673 | -2884 | | | 合成橡胶9-10价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 15 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11800 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11750 | 0 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11800 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化) ...