Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Contract Data - On September 19, the closing price of the main contract was 11,445, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3] - The position volume of the main contract was 75,259, a daily increase of 756 and a weekly increase of 54,200 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,561, a daily decrease of 21,553 and a weekly increase of 41,606 [3] Warehouse Receipts and Ratios - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,230, a daily decrease of 760 and a weekly decrease of 3,440 [3] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 36.78, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 29 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber was 20 higher than the previous day and 70 higher than the previous week [3] - The basis (two - oil) of butadiene rubber was 255, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [3] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily decrease of 40 [3] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 130, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] Price and Cost - The Shandong market price was 11,600, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1525, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 290, a daily decrease of 27 and a weekly decrease of 177 [3] - The disk processing profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The import profit was - 82,940, a daily increase of 39 and a weekly increase of 1,657 [3] - The export profit was 107, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 142 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 75 [3] - The Jiangsu market price was 9,200, a daily increase of 50 [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR China was 1070, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 25 [3] Profit Data - The carbon four extraction profit was not available for the latest data [3] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 106, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] - The import profit was 450, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly increase of 215 [3] - The export profit was - 899, a daily decrease of 43 and a weekly increase of 60 [3] Group 4: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 938, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 175 [3] - The ABS production profit data was not available for the latest data [3] - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 855, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3] Group 5: Price Spread Data - The RU - BR spread was - 59,724, a daily decrease of 791 and a weekly decrease of 54,485 [3] - The NR - BR spread was - 62,959, a daily decrease of 756 and a weekly decrease of 54,455 [3] - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,130, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly decrease of 150 [3] - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,050, with no daily or weekly change [3] - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3] - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1000, with no daily or weekly change [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's synthetic rubber industry, with a projected production increase of 3.7% year-on-year in May 2025, reaching 699,000 tons [1] - Cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China from January to May 2025 is reported at 3.534 million tons, reflecting a growth of 6.2% [1] - The article references a market supply and demand report for the synthetic rubber industry in China from 2025 to 2031, indicating a focus on future industry trends and opportunities [1] Group 2 - The companies mentioned in the article include Boshi Co., Ltd. (002698), Yaxing Chemical (600319), Yanggu Huatai (300121), Shuangjian Co., Ltd. (002381), Qixiang Tengda (002408), Haida Co., Ltd. (300320), Ruankong Co., Ltd. (002073), Sinochem International (600500), Sanlisi (002224), and Tongcheng New Materials (603650) [1] - The data source for the production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with the analysis compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services, emphasizing its expertise in the synthetic rubber sector [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,415, down 175 from the previous day and 240 from the previous week. The open interest of the main contract was 74,503, an increase of 7,604 from the previous day and 52,260 from the previous week. The trading volume of the main contract was 116,114, an increase of 42,925 from the previous day and 53,914 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 135, up 40 from the previous week. The 8 - 9 month spread was 165, up 100 from the previous week. The 9 - 10 month spread was 145, down 5 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The spot processing profit was - 264, down 125 from the previous day and 149 from the previous week. The on - screen processing profit was - 399, down 150 from the previous day and 189 from the previous week. The import profit was - 82,873, up 1,455 from the previous day and 1,609 from the previous week. The export profit was 137, up 131 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 56, down 30 from the previous day and 55 from the previous week. The import profit was 250, down 100 from the previous day and 66 from the previous week. The export profit was - 862, up 51 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene styrene rubber (SBR) production profit was 938, down 175 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was - 3, up 92 from the previous week. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 825, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 28,933, down 7,914 from the previous day and 25,295 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was - 62,203, down 7,894 from the previous day and 52,580 from the previous week. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 150, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week. The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually becoming evident. After the price cuts of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, the spot offers are gradually declining, which may prompt some downstream enterprises to start stocking up. As a result, the inventories of producers and traders may slightly decrease [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly, and most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to build up inventory for the "National Day" holiday and fill the gaps in previous orders. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous period. The position of the main contract is 66,899 yuan/ton, up 2,683 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between October and November for synthetic rubber is 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 68.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.03 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 64.52 dollars/barrel, up 1.22 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 604.88 dollars/ton, down 3.62 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 dollars/ton, unchanged. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 25,600 tons, down 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, down 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [2]. - The producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,300 tons, up 1,650 tons. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 8,210 tons, up 950 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces. The monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall production reached a high level this year [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Key Points 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract was 11,675, down 30 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the position volume was 64,216, an increase of 45,431 from the previous day and 37,366 from the previous week; the trading volume was 74,764, an increase of 38,182 from the previous day and a decrease of 43,356 from the previous week; the warehouse receipt quantity was 13,670, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 30 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 23.49, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30 from the previous day and - 185 from the previous week; the butadiene rubber basis (two - oil) was 30 from the previous day; the styrene - butadiene basis was 130 from the previous day and - 85 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 35 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90 from the previous day and - 130 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 200 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,550, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 200 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 10 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 190, a decrease of 102 from the previous day and 169 from the previous week; the disk processing profit was - 215, a decrease of 132 from the previous day and an increase of 16 from the previous week; the import profit was - 84,535, an increase of 16 from the previous day and a decrease of 166 from the previous week; the export profit was 29, a decrease of 2 from the previous day and an increase of 242 from the previous week [3]. 2. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,500, an increase of 100 from the previous day and a decrease of 30 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,300, an increase of 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 1,090, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 5 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 136, an increase of 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the import profit was 382, an increase of 51 from the previous day and 43 from the previous week; the export profit was - 944, a decrease of 45 from the previous day and an increase of 104 from the previous week [3]. 3. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,113, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 75 from the previous week; the SBS 791 - H production profit was 825, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 230 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A [3]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 48,176, a decrease of 45,386 from the previous day and 37,266 from the previous week; NR - BR was - 51,501, a decrease of 45,426 from the previous day and 37,386 from the previous week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,450, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 350 from the previous week; 3L - styrene - butadiene was 3,050, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and an increase of 150 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference was 150, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot quotations gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up, and the inventories of production enterprises and trade may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, and most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule this week, with the overall capacity utilization rate fluctuating slightly. The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,216, an increase of 45,431; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.44 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.3 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons, or 8.15%. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. Most tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have resumed normal operations, driving the increase in capacity utilization. In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of BR rubber shows wide - range volatile movement. The impact of device maintenance on supply is limited, while demand has mixed factors, and inventory has a negative influence. Fundamentals are relatively strong, but trading volume has weakened. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile state [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral upward trend in volatility. For arbitrage, it is advisable to pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have been reduced by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The suspension of several butadiene rubber devices has led to a slight decline in domestic production and capacity utilization. However, the sufficient supply of most brands limits the price increase. Weakening demand for raw material butadiene and price softening, along with downstream purchasing behavior, have put pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - In 2025, many refineries of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have device maintenance plans, involving various regions and different types of devices, with a wide range of maintenance capacities and time spans [12]. 3.3 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Device Maintenance Data Statistics - Many butadiene production enterprises have experienced device shutdowns, affecting production capacity. For butadiene rubber, some devices are in normal operation, while others are under maintenance, and some have future shutdown plans [13]. 3.4 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Market Data - **Supply**: Butadiene production and high - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization have declined due to device shutdowns [4]. - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the replacement market is stable, with increased production of winter tires and some shortages in all - season tires. In the all - steel tire market, the replacement market price is stable, with a slight improvement in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory has decreased, while butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventories have increased [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 165 yuan/ton, in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,205 yuan/ton (2.19%), the NR - BR spread is 940 yuan/ton (6.82%), and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.36% [4]. - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 36 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction is 1,997.21 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 128 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.06% [4].