证券研究报告 | 2025年10月28日 宋城演艺（300144.SZ） 优于大市 短期业绩承压，跟踪项目迭代成效与经营拐点 2025Q3 公司收入-9.9%，归母净利润-22.6%，剔除轻资产确认后估算相对承 压。2025Q3 公司收入 7.5 亿元/-9.9%，归母净利润 3.5 亿元/-22.6%，扣非 净利润 3.4 亿元/-23.4%；2025Q1-3 公司收入 18.3 亿元/-9.0%，归母净利润 7.5 亿元/-25.2%，扣非净利润 7.3 亿元/-26.9%。结合公司投资者交流日志， 前三季度轻资产设计策划费确认 1 亿元，其中 Q3 为 5000 万（上年同期确认 1.7 亿元，其中 Q3 确认约 2000 万），若剔除轻资产部分估算自营项目收入 同比下滑 16%，利润同比下滑 31%，相对承压。 公司轻重结合发展，自营项目积极改造应对挑战，轻资产签约推进贡献增量。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,926 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Changbai Mountain's stock price has shown a significant increase this year, with a 23.41% rise, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth in the tourism sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Changbai Mountain reported a revenue of 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.05 million yuan, a decline of 109.75% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 144 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 42.53 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On October 28, Changbai Mountain's stock rose by 2.05%, reaching 51.88 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 320 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.34% [1]. - The stock's market capitalization stands at 13.835 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.209 million yuan from main funds [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 24.52% to 36,600, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 32.48% to 7,289 shares [2]. - Notable changes in institutional holdings include a significant reduction in shares held by the fifth-largest shareholder, while several new shareholders have entered the top ten list [3]. Business Overview - Changbai Mountain, established in December 2010 and listed in August 2014, primarily operates in the tourism service industry, with its main revenue sources being tourism transportation (66.82%) and hotel services (24.09%) [1]. - The company is categorized under the social services sector, specifically in tourism and scenic areas, and is involved in various concept sectors including tourism hotels and online tourism [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social services sector has shown stable growth in cultural and tourism consumption during the first three quarters of 2025, with domestic travel reaching 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [4][30]. - The report anticipates that upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption will provide further benefits to the industry [4]. - The social services sector's performance in the last two trading weeks was an increase of 0.83%, ranking 7th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [1][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's sub-sectors showed varied performance, with tourism retail leading at +2.80%, followed by professional services at +1.81% and tourism and scenic spots at +1.13% [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 34.83 times, which is at the 31.83% historical percentile, compared to the 13.69 times for the CSI 300 index at the 66.90% historical percentile [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others [4]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4]. Industry Company News - The report notes that the domestic travel market remains robust, with a significant increase in both the number of trips and spending, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [30]. - It mentions the recent adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, which is expected to enhance the tourism experience and boost consumption [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop tourism enterprise in China, with state-owned capital expected to empower its development. The forecast for total operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 5.25 billion, 5.73 billion, and 6.27 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 9%, and 9.5% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.05 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.34 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 12.1%, and 13.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 30x, 26x, and 23x for 2025-2027 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29 million yuan, down 13.19% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 386 million yuan, a decrease of 4.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 83 million yuan, down 2.54% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54.02%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stability. However, the increase in sales expenses significantly impacted the net profit margin, which was 20.45%, down 2.82 percentage points year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 53.72%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.58%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 630 million, 536 million, 525 million, 573 million, and 627 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 70.9%, -14.9%, -2.0%, 9.0%, and 9.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 147 million, 105 million, 105 million, 118 million, and 134 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 623.9%, -28.8%, 0.5%, 12.1%, and 13.3% [6] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for the forecasted years are 0.54, 0.39, 0.39, 0.44, and 0.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.0, 29.0, 29.5, 26.3, and 23.2 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.0%, 7.8%, 7.6%, 8.3%, and 9.0% for the years 2023A to 2027E [6]

Core Insights - The tourism and scenic spots sector increased by 0.57% on October 27, with Dalian Shengya leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Sector Performance - Dalian Shengya (600593) closed at 49.80, up 6.68% with a trading volume of 172,100 shares and a transaction value of 843 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Tibet Tourism (600749) at 18.58, up 1.75% [1] - Peijiang Co. (002033) at 8.72, up 1.40% [1] - Lingnan Holdings (000524) at 13.81, up 0.95% [1] - Caesar's Rotating Industry (000796) at 6.14, up 0.82% [1] Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a net outflow of 77.52 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 187 million [2] - Key individual stock capital flows include: - Dalian Shengya with a net inflow of 65.19 million from institutional investors [3] - Caesar's Rotating Industry with a net inflow of 35.32 million from institutional investors [3] - Jiuhua Tourism (661809) with a net inflow of 8.69 million from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][16][19] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit in Q3 2025, with revenue at 140 million yuan, down 1.23% year-on-year, and net profit at 29 million yuan, down 13.19% year-on-year [1][8] - The termination of the Animal Kingdom project has been confirmed, with the company focusing on other reserve projects for future growth [2][13] - Despite short-term operational pressures due to external consumption environment changes, the company is actively managing fixed costs and enhancing marketing efforts [3][16] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit of 29 million yuan, down 13.19% [1][8] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 386 million yuan, a decline of 4.65% year-on-year, while net profit was 83 million yuan, down 2.54% [1][8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 103 million, 116 million, and 132 million yuan respectively [3][16] Project Updates - The Animal Kingdom project has been officially terminated, and the company is now tracking other reserve projects such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and upgrades to the Yushui Hot Spring facilities [2][13] - The company is focusing on resource integration and development in the leisure vacation destination sector, which is seen as a foundation for medium to long-term growth [2][13] Market Strategy - The company is leveraging regional marketing strategies, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, to drive traffic and sales, with a notable increase in sales expenses during the peak summer season [1][8] - Despite a stable gross margin, the company faced increased marketing costs, which rose by 93% year-on-year during the summer peak [1][8]

Core Insights - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a decline of 1.62% on October 24, with Changbai Mountain leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and scenic spots sector saw a net outflow of 349 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 345 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with ST Zhangjiajie rising by 2.50% and Changbai Mountain falling by 4.72% [1][2] Stock Details - Notable stock performances included: - ST Zhangjiajie: Closing price 7.78 yuan, up 2.50%, with a trading volume of 63,200 hands and a transaction amount of approximately 48.70 million yuan [1] - Changbai Mountain: Closing price 50.63 yuan, down 4.72%, with a trading volume of 180,600 hands and a transaction amount of approximately 924 million yuan [2] - Other stocks like Huangshan Tourism and Yunnan Tourism also experienced slight declines of 0.26% and 0.90%, respectively [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Market Overview - The tourism and scenic spots sector increased by 1.22% on October 23, with Dalian Shengya leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] Stock Performance - Dalian Shengya (600593) saw a closing price of 48.61, with a significant increase of 10.00% and a trading volume of 131,800 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 618 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Changzi Mountain (6602099) with a 6.30% increase, closing at 53.14, and Lijiang Co. (002033) with a 1.52% increase, closing at 8.68 [1] Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a net inflow of 10.96 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 10.95 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 21.91 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Dalian Shengya had a main fund net inflow of 48.83 million yuan, but speculative funds had a net outflow of 17.50 million yuan [3] - Changzi Mountain also reported a main fund net inflow of 44.80 million yuan, with a minor speculative fund inflow of 0.89 million yuan [3] - Tianfu Culture (000558) had a main fund net inflow of 8.96 million yuan, while speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 5.38 million yuan [3]