阿里健康、阿里巴巴涨近5%，小鹏汽车涨超4%，比亚迪股份涨超3%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

2026 年 01 月 12 日 12:49 大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：开门红之后 260112_原文 发言人 00:04 54321。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到每周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。我周末也在上海待了 半天左右，陆家嘴突然降温，但好像参加了一些研讨，大家的心头是比较热火的，为什么呢？因为开年 同脸周的开门红，还是给 26 年的市场奠定了一个积极的色彩基调。 发言人 00:35 这里面我们观察到全球地缘政治的格局出现了东稳西荡的局面，人民币汇率突破走强，A 股港股的活跃 度在回升。CPI、PPI 这些反应通缩的指标，最近回弹了一些，包括楼市的一个先行指标。香港的楼市 量价齐升，所以开门红是比较热闹的。当然我想热闹背后大家还是关注能不能持续下去，那就是今年的 核心命题，打破通书，让柴米油盐消费民生更好的恢复可能才能决定这些迹象能否持续。所以今天我们 就基于在 25 年年底收官的策略谈和 26 年第一期提到的三个进行时的核心框架，再结合最新的内外局 势，请来了我们的首席策略师罗 A 我们的经济学家郑宁，我们的反映整个亚太的固定收益和汇率的分析 师 get，还有我们关于香港的房地产市场 ...

Core Insights - Apple has announced a multi-year agreement with Google to upgrade Siri using the Gemini model, enhancing personalized smart features, while Elon Musk criticized the collaboration for potentially leading to excessive power concentration [2] - Tempus AI forecasts an 83% revenue surge in 2025, with total contract value exceeding $1.1 billion, showcasing significant technological advantages and market expansion in the medical AI sector [2] - WuXi AppTec anticipates a net profit growth of approximately 102.65% in 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by its leading position in global pharmaceutical R&D services and sustained order growth [2] - Xpeng Motors has set a delivery target of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.1% to 39.7%, with plans to launch four new SUV models [2] - Alibaba is recommended for gradual accumulation by JPMorgan, citing short-term profit margin pressures due to investments in food delivery, e-commerce, and AI applications, but expects accelerated revenue growth from Alibaba Cloud [2] Greater China Company News - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the dual-specific antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion [4] - TSMC projects a net profit of NT$475.2 billion (approximately $15.02 billion) in Q4 2025, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by rising global AI infrastructure demand and the release of 3nm process capacity [4] - Kweichow Moutai plans to adjust the factory prices of several products for the first time in three years, with significant price reductions for "Moutai Boutique" and "Moutai 15-Year" [4] - Ctrip mistakenly sent a mass layoff notice, which was clarified as an internal error, not indicative of a company-wide layoff [4] Americas Company News - NVIDIA and Eli Lilly plan to jointly invest $1 billion over five years to establish an AI drug development lab, while also collaborating with Thermo Fisher on AI-driven lab automation solutions [6] - Meta is set to announce layoffs affecting about 10% of its Reality Labs staff, reallocating funds from virtual reality to wearable devices, and plans to invest billions in expanding data center infrastructure [6] - Tesla's stock is under pressure following a fatal accident involving a semi-truck, although EU plans to replace punitive tariffs with minimum import prices may alleviate cost pressures in the European market [6] - Amazon's fine from Italy's antitrust authority has been reduced from €1.128 billion to €752.4 million, while also reforming its return policy for high-value items [6] Asia-Pacific Company News - Samsung Electronics is collaborating with T-Mobile on retail media innovations and is set to release the Galaxy S26 Ultra with improved satellite communication features [10] - SK Hynix is experiencing rising DRAM prices, with 32GB memory prices reaching several thousand yuan, and is expected to achieve a profit margin of 82% [10] - LG Energy is projected to incur a loss of $83.8 million in Q4 2025, while planning to release low-cost OLED TVs to expand market share [10] - Hyundai has ordered 30,000 Boston Dynamics robots to enhance smart manufacturing capabilities [10] Europe and Oceania Company News - European satellite communications company has ordered an additional 340 OneWeb low Earth orbit satellites from Airbus, bringing the total to 440, expected to enhance global broadband communications [12] - BHP has no plans to make a takeover bid for Glencore amid renewed merger talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore [12] - Rio Tinto is considering acquiring Glencore's coal business as part of its renewed merger discussions [12] - Mercedes-Benz expects a 9% decline in global sales to 1.8 million units in 2025, with a significant drop in the Chinese market [12]

Italy's antitrust authority said on Monday it had reduced a record fine imposed on U.S e-commerce giant Amazon to 752.4 million euros ($878.20 million) from an original amount of 1.128 billion euros. ...

Core Insights - Tmall's 2025 New Brand Development Report indicates that over 150,000 quality new merchants established brands on Tmall in the past year, setting a historical record for brand creation [1] - The number of brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales in their first year increased by over 40% year-on-year, with 276 brands reaching this milestone within three years [1] - A total of 5,026 new brands achieved annual sales exceeding 10 million yuan, marking all-time highs in various metrics [1] Industry Breakdown - The top ten industries with the most new brands achieving over 10 million yuan in sales include apparel, home appliances, home decoration, 3C digital products, health, sports and outdoor, maternal and infant products, home goods, fresh food, and jewelry [3] - Notable brands such as "Ten Qintian," "Tongping," and "Cooltai" achieved over 100 million yuan in sales in 2025, becoming representatives of the "new force" brands in their respective segments [3] Regional Insights - The cities with the highest number of new merchants include Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinhua, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Xuzhou, Dongguan, and Zhengzhou, with Guangzhou leading for three consecutive years [3] - In 2025, over 18,000 new merchants opened stores in Guangzhou, doubling the number from 2023 [3] Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is implementing a "supporting excellence" strategy in 2025, focusing on brands with originality and creativity that can meet consumer demand and create loyal customers [4] - Different support policies are provided based on the development stage of new brands, including the "Blue Star Plan" for new merchants and the "Treasure New Brand" initiative for brands transitioning from initial growth [4] Future Opportunities - The report identifies 50 blue ocean opportunity sectors for 2026, including smart robots, AI glasses, skin science, personalized makeup, and lightweight sports equipment, indicating significant growth potential in these areas [4]

马年春节临近，年货市场迎来一年中最旺的消费季。1月12日，京东京喜自营宣布正式开启"年货节"， 即日起至2月23日，围绕寻味年货、置备年礼、除尘焕新、红运穿搭等多个热门场景丰富供给，携手全 国260余个产业带的数万家工厂，现货开卖，为消费者提供拥有甄选品质和超高质价比的年货商品。 京喜自营是京东旗下特价购物品牌，致力于甄选产业带源头好货，通过京东快递直达消费者。自2023年 底上线以来，已累计服务超4亿用户。 今年是京喜自营的第三个年货节，依托京东超级供应链能力，京喜自营围绕京喜甄选、王牌单品、京喜 农场、大牌同厂、京喜IPick、出口转内销六大业务版块，精选全国260余个产业带近百万款优质白牌年 货，让更多"质价比年货"流通全国市场。 值得一提的是，今年是中国外贸商家转型内销的首个年货节，京喜自营将通过出口转内销业务，带动山 东、广东、浙江、福建等多个产业带外贸商品走进国内用户家中。 为解决年货涨价与快递服务停运等难题，京喜自营全力保障"春节不打烊"，京喜采销团队凭借消费趋势 洞察提前与商家沟通备货，集中组织生产、发货、售后及履约，核心品类和拳头商品实现爆品入仓，商 家与快递物流春节期间值守，确保价格稳定、 ...

Core Insights - Tmall's 2025 New Brand Development Report indicates that over 150,000 quality new merchants launched brands on Tmall in the past year, marking a historical high in scale [1][7] - The number of brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales in their opening year increased by over 40% year-on-year; 276 new brands reached over 100 million yuan in sales within three years, and 5,026 brands surpassed 10 million yuan in sales, all setting new historical records [1][7] Industry Breakdown - The top ten industries with the most new brands achieving over 10 million yuan in sales in 2025 are apparel, home appliances, home decoration, 3C digital products, health, sports and outdoor, maternal and infant products, home furnishings, food and fresh produce, and jewelry [1][7] Notable Brands - Ten brands, including Qintian, Tongpin, Xucuihua, Kutaike, Xiaoban Furniture, Junpei, LiberLive, Juequling, PANE, and CrzYoga, are recognized as "new force" brands for achieving over 100 million yuan in sales and leading their respective market segments in 2025 [1][7] Regional Insights - The cities with the most new merchants in 2025 include Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinhua, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Xuzhou, Dongguan, and Zhengzhou, with Guangzhou maintaining its lead for three consecutive years [1][7] - In 2025, over 18,000 new merchants opened stores in Guangzhou, doubling the number from 2023 [1][7] Future Opportunities - The report also identifies 50 blue ocean opportunity sectors for 2026, including smart robots, AI glasses, skin science, personalized makeup, wearable home clothing, vegetable-tanned HOBO bags, light customization in home decoration, smart mattresses, titanium kitchenware, small ball sports, lightweight sports equipment, professional trail running, and outdoor pet products, indicating significant growth potential in these areas [2][8]

马年春节临近，年货市场迎来一年中最旺的消费季。1月12日，京东京喜自营宣布正式开启"年货节"，即日起至2月23 日，围绕寻味年货、置备年礼、除尘焕新、红运穿搭等多个热门场景丰富供给，携手全国260余个产业带的数万家工 厂，现货开卖，为消费者提供拥有甄选品质和超高质价比的年货商品。 为满足全国用户集中爆发的消费需求，京喜自营"厂货百补计划"迎来升级，进一步扩大覆盖范围，通过百亿补贴整合 全国产业带源头优质年货，带来生鲜食品、酒水饮料、居家百货、服饰珠宝、美妆个护、母婴宠物、家具建材、家清 纸品等全品类热门年货商品。京喜自营还携手敦煌文创，推出马年独家敦煌文创年货礼盒"翼马送福"。 年货节期间，依托京东超级供应链能力和京东物流网络，京喜自营推出"春节不打烊"，保证春节期间正常履约发货， 同时推出年货礼品官方直降85折、敦煌文创礼盒及年货爆品2件8折、跨店满减每满300元减50元等多重优惠，为用户 带来实惠便捷的新春年货采购体验。 春节不打烊 惠及数万产业带工厂 近年来，越来越多用户不仅追求节日的仪式感，更日益关注品质、新意以及稳定的质价比，对年货提出了更高要求。 这一消费趋势下，以京喜自营为代表的电商平台正逐渐成 ...

- TOP 3 余承东：华为终端董事长，"遥遥领先"的口号已经深入人心，他带领的华为终端业务，是华为 消费者业务的中流砥柱。 - TOP 4 董明珠：格力电器董事长，"铁娘子"的影响力依旧不减，是中国制造的标志性人物。 - TOP 5 何小鹏：小鹏汽车董事长，在新能源汽车的浪潮中，是中国造车新势力的领军者。 - TOP 6 李书福：吉利汽车创始人，从民营企业到收购沃尔沃，他的故事是中国汽车工业崛起的缩影。 刚刚出炉的"2025中国品牌人物500强"榜单引爆全网！华为创始人任正非毫无悬念地再次登顶榜首，而 华为终端董事长余承东也强势拿下第三名，华为成为了榜单中最大的赢家。 这份榜单的前十强，可以说是浓缩了当今中国最具影响力的商业力量： - TOP 1 任正非：华为创始人，以89岁高龄再次蝉联榜首，其带领华为突破重重封锁的传奇经历，早已 成为中国企业界的精神图腾。 - TOP 2 刘强东：京东集团创始人，凭借其强大的供应链体系，在零售和物流领域持续领跑。 - TOP 9 梁文锋：DeepSeek、幻方量化创始人，作为人工智能领域的代表，他的入选标志着科技新势力 的崛起。 - TOP 10 王宁：泡泡玛特创始人、董 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the pervasive issue of fake reviews in the e-commerce industry, where businesses incentivize customers to leave positive feedback, undermining market competition and eroding trust in the digital economy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Inducement Tactics - Many e-commerce packages now include cards offering cash rewards for positive reviews, indicating a widespread practice of incentivizing good ratings [3]. - Businesses have escalated their tactics from simple cash rewards to comprehensive strategies that include various incentives across both online and offline shopping environments [3]. - Some merchants tie positive reviews to after-sales services, making it difficult for consumers to receive support unless they provide favorable feedback [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - High review ratings have become critical for business survival, with a single negative review potentially requiring 50 positive reviews to offset its impact [3]. - The competitive landscape, especially in sectors like food and beauty, has led to a situation where businesses feel compelled to "buy" good reviews to remain viable [3][4]. Group 3: Algorithmic Influence - E-commerce platforms' algorithms favor products with higher ratings and review counts, creating a cycle where good reviews lead to increased visibility and sales [4]. - This algorithmic bias forces businesses to engage in unethical practices to maintain their market position, as lower-rated products struggle to gain traction [4]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - The Chinese government has enacted regulations to combat false reviews, categorizing inducement practices as unfair competition and imposing fines for violations [5][6]. - E-commerce platforms are taking steps to enforce these regulations by monitoring and penalizing businesses that engage in review manipulation [5][6]. Group 5: Legal Implications - The practice of incentivizing reviews can lead to significant legal consequences, including hefty fines and potential criminal charges for severe violations [7]. - Consumers have the right to accurate information about products, and misleading reviews can result in claims for punitive damages under consumer protection laws [8].