高盛2026年十大投资主题聚焦：AI基础设施投资转向数据中心内部及电力供应商；医药研发从减肥药转向心血管领域；中国经济增长将超市场预期，技 术进步和出口为主要驱动力等。美联储政策、关税裁决等政治不确定性将主导上半年市场。 高盛在报告中称， AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段 ，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露 头角。 在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化 ，礼来继续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的 复兴。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增长将超出市场共识，技术进步和出口领先地位将成为主要驱动力。 与此同时， 美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府 关税政策的裁决、新任美联储主席任命等政策不确定性，将在2026年上半年主导市场情绪。 值得注意的是，高盛指出，当前美股估值已达到上世纪90年代末以来最高水平，投资者需在把握机遇的同时保持审慎。 AI基础设施深化与电力短缺交易 AI投资主题正经历显著转型。英伟达、微软、亚马逊等此前表现稳健的领军企业股价自去年夏季起停滞不前，博通等新公司开始取得进展，谷歌等 AI"赢家"开始显现。 ...

值得注意的是，高盛指出，当前美股估值已达到上世纪90年代末以来最高水平，投资者需在把握机遇的同时保持审慎。 高盛行业研究团队在2026年开年之际发布年度投资主题展望，聚焦从AI基础设施演进到地缘政治不确定性等十大关键领域。这些主题反映了全球市场正经历的 深刻转型，涵盖技术革新、医药突破、贸易格局重塑以及能源结构调整等多个维度。 高盛在报告中称， AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段 ，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露头角。 在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化 ，礼来继续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的复兴。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增长将超出市场共识，技术进步和出口领先地位将成为主要驱动力。 与此同时， 美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府关税政 策的裁决、新任美联储主席任命等政策不确定性，将在2026年上半年主导市场情绪。 AI基础设施深化与电力短缺交易 AI投资主题正经历显著转型。英伟达、微软、亚马逊等此前表现稳健的领军企业股价自去年夏季起停滞不前，博通等新公司开始取得进展，谷歌等AI"赢家"开 始显现。 投 ...

高盛行业研究团队在2026年开年之际发布年度投资主题展望，聚焦从AI基础设施演进到地缘政治不确 定性等十大关键领域。这些主题反映了全球市场正经历的深刻转型，涵盖技术革新、医药突破、贸易格 局重塑以及能源结构调整等多个维度。 高盛在报告中称，AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年 夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露头角。在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化，礼来继续跑 赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的复兴。 AI基础设施建设中的"电力板块"也在转型，公用事业股票涨势停滞，但燃气轮机供应商GE Vernova持 续上涨，Quanta Services和EME等能够安装这些设备的公司继续受益于市场和现场服务的稀缺性。 Ryan Hammond在11月18日的报告中指出，下一阶段的交易将涵盖通过采用AI工具提高效率的企业。 医药研发重心转移 GLP-1减肥药市场的转型更为明显。礼来股价持续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已损失近半，价格 和销量双重压力导致市场对其2026年每股收益预期下调33%。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented situation where global capital expenditure is increasing rapidly while employment growth in developed markets is stagnating, highlighting a potential "decoupling" between investment and job creation [2][3][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - According to Morgan Stanley, global capital expenditure is projected to achieve an annualized growth rate of 11% in the first half of 2025, following a modest 4% growth in 2024 [2][5]. - This acceleration in capital spending is widespread across regions, indicating a significant increase in corporate equipment expenditure [5]. - The report notes that this is the slowest employment growth rate since the early recovery period following the global financial crisis, with a projected annualized growth rate of only 0.4% in developed markets for Q3 2025 [5][6]. Group 2: Diverging Employment Growth - The stagnation in employment growth is historically rare, as such a scenario has not occurred in the past 60 years of economic expansion in the U.S. [6]. - Weak employment growth is typically a reliable warning sign of an impending economic downturn, which is a primary reason for the Federal Reserve's potential reintroduction of easing measures [6]. Group 3: Optimistic Interpretation - An optimistic perspective suggests that the current situation may indicate a successful implementation of new technologies, leading to a "no-employment recovery" driven by productivity gains [8][9]. - The surge in AI-related capital expenditure is identified as a key driver of this investment boom, particularly in the technology sectors of the U.S. and Asia [9]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast of a 4% annualized productivity growth in the U.S. for Q3 supports this theory, suggesting that strong productivity growth could offset the negative impacts of a slowing labor supply [10]. Group 4: Pessimistic Warning - Conversely, a more cautious viewpoint warns that the current capital expenditure boom may be unsustainable and could represent a narrow rebound in technology-driven capital spending [11][12]. - The stagnation in employment growth may reflect a broader shift towards business caution, with companies investing in automation and technology to reduce long-term costs rather than expanding their workforce [12]. - Concerns are raised about a potential negative feedback loop, where declining labor income growth could erode consumer confidence and spending, ultimately leading to a broader demand recession [13][14].

Core Insights - The global economy is experiencing an unprecedented scenario where corporate capital expenditure is surging at an unprecedented rate, while employment growth in developed economies is nearly stagnant [1][3] - JPMorgan's recent report indicates a projected 11% annualized growth in global capital expenditure by the first half of 2025, contrasting sharply with a mere 0.4% year-on-year increase in employment in developed markets [1][3] - This phenomenon has led to two contrasting interpretations: one optimistic, viewing it as a sign of successful technology implementation and productivity gains, and the other pessimistic, warning of a potential capital expenditure bubble driven by technology [1][5][6] Group 1: Investment Trends - Global capital expenditure is expected to rise significantly, with a forecasted annualized growth rate of 10.2% in the first half of 2025, following a modest 4% growth in 2024 [3] - The acceleration in capital spending is widespread across regions, indicating a robust investment environment despite stagnant hiring [3][4] - The report highlights that this situation is historically rare, as weak employment growth typically signals an impending economic downturn [4] Group 2: Optimistic Perspective - An optimistic interpretation suggests that the world is entering a new phase driven by technological revolution, particularly AI, which is reshaping production functions [5] - Companies are investing heavily in efficiency-enhancing equipment and intellectual property products rather than expanding their workforce [5] - Strong productivity growth, projected at 4% annualized for the third quarter in the U.S., supports the notion that economic growth can be sustained without significant job creation [5] Group 3: Pessimistic Outlook - A more cautious viewpoint posits that the current capital expenditure surge may be unsustainable and could diminish as preemptive spending in the U.S. and Asia concludes [6] - The stagnation in employment growth may reflect a broader shift towards business caution, with companies opting for automation and technology investments over workforce expansion [6] - Concerns arise regarding a potential negative feedback loop, where declining labor income growth could erode consumer confidence and spending, leading to a broader economic downturn [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity in economic recovery in Hong Kong, highlighting a "jobless recovery" phenomenon where GDP is growing but employment is not improving [1][4][5] - Despite a reported 10 consecutive quarters of GDP growth and a 16-month rise in exports, many residents feel the economic situation is poor, with low consumer spending and business closures [2][3] - The term "jobless recovery" is used to describe the current economic state of Hong Kong, indicating a lack of job growth despite overall economic indicators suggesting recovery [4][7] Group 2 - The article references a podcast discussing the economic conditions in Hong Kong, questioning the true state of the economy and the reasons behind the perceived disparity in economic experiences [5] - The concept of "jobless recovery" has historical roots, having been used since the 1990s to describe situations where economic growth does not correlate with job growth [7] - The discussion includes the broader implications of creating new economic concepts to explain unusual economic phenomena, suggesting that language plays a crucial role in shaping economic understanding [8][12][20]