7月3日，特朗普在社交媒体高调宣布与越南达成新贸易协议，此消息引发国际关注，也为后续多国动向 埋下伏笔。越南对美出口商品面临至少20%的关税，而美国商品进入越南市场享受"零关税"待遇，这种 20比0的关税对比，足见越南在协议中的让步程度。协议规定，对被认定为"经越南转运"的商品征收 40%的惩罚性关税。由于东南亚国家与中国供应链深度交织，此条款明显是美国为防止中国商品借道越 南进入美国市场而设，旨在在中国与东南亚国家间制造矛盾。 苏林（资料图） 7月9日是特朗普宣布的暂停90天"对等关税"政策的最后期限，此前全球多数国家对其关税政策持反对态 度。越南在此时率先妥协，让原本观望的国家产生动摇，可能促使更多国家主动与美国谈判，也让特朗 普在关税问题上态度更加强硬，未来其他国家与美达成协议时，面临的关税税率恐难低于20%。特朗普 政府最初计划对所有进口自柬埔寨的商品征收49%的"对等关税"，理由是柬埔寨对美贸易顺差过大，这 给柬埔寨经济带来巨大压力。 据智通财经报道，7月4日，柬埔寨与美国就互惠贸易协定框架达成共识，虽未明确具体关税调整幅度， 但柬埔寨在一定程度上做出让步，以避免高关税对本国出口产业造成沉重打击。 ...

Core Points - The five-year wheat import agreement between Indonesia and the United States represents a significant breakthrough in their trade relationship, with Indonesia committing to import at least 1 million tons of wheat annually, valued at approximately $1.25 billion [1][3] - This agreement reflects Indonesia's strategic response to the pressure of high tariffs imposed by the U.S., aiming to reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. and secure a more favorable trade environment [3][4] - The deal highlights the complexities of global supply chains and the geopolitical dynamics at play, as Indonesia seeks to balance its agricultural needs with the implications of increased reliance on U.S. agricultural products [6][9] Trade Dynamics - The agreement is seen as mutually beneficial, ensuring a stable market for U.S. wheat farmers while addressing Indonesia's domestic demand for flour [3][4] - Indonesia's trade deficit with the U.S. reached $17.9 billion last year, increasing by 5.4%, prompting the U.S. to impose higher tariffs [3][4] - By committing to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, Indonesia aims to mitigate the impact of tariffs and improve its trade balance with the U.S. [4][7] Agricultural Implications - Indonesia's commitment to import 1 million tons of wheat annually poses potential risks to its local agricultural policies and independence, as it increases reliance on global supply chains [6][9] - The agreement enhances the U.S.'s control over the global agricultural market, particularly in Southeast Asia, reinforcing its position as a leading agricultural exporter [6][9] - The deal serves as a reminder of the volatility in global food markets, influenced by factors such as climate change and pandemics, highlighting the importance of trade agreements for supply chain security [9] Diplomatic Strategy - Indonesia's diplomatic approach reflects a balance of flexibility and caution, as it navigates the pressures of U.S. tariffs while seeking to maintain its competitive edge in the global market [7][9] - The agreement does not resolve all trade issues between Indonesia and the U.S., and the long-term sustainability of this balance remains a critical concern [7][9] - Indonesia's strategy of expanding imports to negotiate better tariff conditions illustrates its adaptive response to the challenges posed by global economic competition [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's strong opposition to any trade agreements that compromise its interests in exchange for tariff reductions, particularly in the context of the U.S. negotiating with other countries to exclude China from supply chains [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is attempting to negotiate trade agreements with countries like India and the EU, aiming to weaken China's position by offering tariff exemptions in exchange for cooperation against China [1][3]. - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on global trade partners, with Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 145%, which has severely impacted global supply chains [1][3]. - China has issued a warning that any country cooperating with the U.S. to undermine its interests will face strong retaliation [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - China is prepared to implement targeted countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, which are crucial for U.S. military and industrial applications [3][5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on China for rare earth materials, with 83.7% of its supply coming from China, posing a risk to its military supply chain [5]. - China retains the right to regulate its agricultural imports from the U.S., which could significantly impact U.S. farmers, particularly in key agricultural states [5][6]. Group 3: Multilateral Trade Dynamics - The article suggests that China's stance is becoming a cornerstone for multilateral trade order, as it calls for alliances against U.S. trade bullying [6][8]. - The U.S. has faced challenges in achieving substantial trade agreements, with claims of reaching deals with multiple countries being met with skepticism [6][8]. - The urgency of the situation is emphasized, as the deadline for negotiations approaches, testing the strategic resolve of involved nations [8].

新华财经北京7月8日电 7月4日开始华北市场玉米均价由涨转跌，产区部分市场玉米价格较3日下跌10- 30元／吨，截至7月4日，华北地区玉米均价为2427.85元／吨，环比跌幅0.26%，同比涨幅1.86%。价格 下跌的主要原因在于贸易商出货性提升，玉米有效供应阶段性增加，需求相对稳定，供应面对玉米价格 支撑减弱，玉米价格承压窄幅下跌。 贸易商为锁定出库利润多积极出货 6月下旬开始，随着玉米深加工企业收购价格上调，贸易商的出库利润提升，据卓创资讯电话调研了 解，6月底、7月初华北部分贸易商的出库利润在300元／吨左右，上下100元／吨的差值。因出货利润为 近几年以来的最高水平，且截至7月3日，华北地区玉米均价较1月2日已涨405元／吨，涨幅远超预期； 进入7月份以后，进口玉米拍卖启动，部分贸易商担忧后期玉米拍卖量增加，玉米供应增多，价格再涨 空间有限；另外，随着气温升高，玉米存储难度增加。多重因素影响下，华北地区贸易商玉米出货积极 性提升，当地玉米有效供应增加。 华北玉米价格短期偏弱后市或仍偏强 近期受华北及东北贸易商出货积极性提升影响，玉米供应阶段性提升；下游深加工企业刚需采购为主， 且开工存下降预期，饲料企 ...

中国企业的芬太尼向美国走私的纽约的审判成为日本经济新闻调查的契机（远藤启生摄） 2023年6月，美国禁毒署以涉嫌使危险药物非法流入美国的罪名，逮捕了中国籍男子"王庆周"和女子"陈 依依"。在调查过程中浮现的是"在日本的老板"。在日本的老板被认为是"Fengzhi Xia"，连美国禁毒署 也找不到下落，这样的中国组织的核心人物可能就在日本…… 向美国走私合成毒品"芬太尼"的中国组织在日本设立基地的嫌疑浮出水面。美国禁毒署（DEA）也在追 查其领导人的行踪。引发中美矛盾、动摇世界的问题绝不是远离日本的事情。日本经济新闻通过本文追 踪事件的真容。 （注：本报道完全由日语原稿翻译而成） 王庆周等人曾是中国武汉的化工企业"Hubei Amarvel Biotech（湖北精奥生物科技）"的高管。因违法将 芬太尼原料带入美国而被美国法院判处有罪。在审判中，被视为"日本的老板"的中国男子的名字浮出水 面。 "陈依依证实其在Fengzhi Xia投资的Amarvel Biotech等四家公司工作过"。 在社交媒体脸书（Facebook）上找到了"Fengzhi Xia"的账户，有6个朋友关注，称住在日本的那霸市。 2023年8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration reflect a continuation of a hardline trade policy while also indicating a tactical shift towards negotiating under pressure [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has issued new tariffs targeting 14 countries, with Japan facing a 24% tariff and South Korea a 25% tariff, breaking the expectation of tariff exemptions for traditional allies [1] - The delay of the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1 provides a 20-day buffer for trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan and South Korea were chosen as initial targets due to their significant export volumes to the U.S., which can create immediate market impacts [1] - The strategy aims to send a message to other countries that no one is exempt from U.S. tariffs, enhancing America's psychological advantage in negotiations [1] Group 3: Characteristics of the Tariff Strategy - The tariff strategy includes three main characteristics: breaking the ally boundary by weaponizing trade, setting flexible negotiation periods to force concessions, and applying differentiated tax rates based on each country's economic structure [3] - This approach is described as a "carrot and stick" method, with the potential to reshape global trade dynamics as the August 1 deadline approaches [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing complexity of the market environment and the role of futures tools, particularly the introduction of log futures, as essential for enterprises to manage risks effectively [2][3] - A company, referred to as Company A, has adopted a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" model to stabilize production and manage risks, serving as a reference for similar enterprises [2][4] Market Environment - Log is a core raw material in the wood industry, widely used in construction, furniture, decoration, and pulp [3] - China is a significant player in the global wood market, leading in both consumption and imports, with New Zealand being the largest supplier, holding a 50% share [3] - Recent fluctuations in the real estate market have led to increased volatility in the log spot market, necessitating better risk management strategies for log enterprises [3] Company Strategy - Company A has established a long-term partnership with a New Zealand log supplier, securing procurement channels through long-term contracts [4] - The company faced challenges due to significant price fluctuations in the spot market, prompting a shift towards futures derivatives for risk hedging [4][5] Implementation Process - The futures risk management subsidiary designed a "hedging on the futures market + forward procurement" plan to optimize procurement costs for Company A [5] - Company A identified delivery profits by categorizing the logs and comparing them with the main contract prices, thus opening new profit avenues [6] Risk Management - The hedging process required dynamic tracking of basis changes and flexible strategy adjustments to minimize risks [7] - Company A addressed measurement standard discrepancies and exchange rate fluctuations to ensure effective hedging [7] Results - After implementing the hedging plan, Company A managed to procure logs at prices lower than the market rate, effectively reducing costs and stabilizing profits [8] - The company saved a total of 300,000 yuan in procurement costs, successfully mitigating the risk of price declines in the spot market [9] Industry Implications - The article emphasizes the shift of more enterprises towards using futures derivatives for risk management in response to changing market conditions [11] - The futures risk management subsidiary aims to enhance service quality and innovate tools to support enterprises in improving their risk resilience [11]

观察者网消息，金砖国家的开放合作之声在南美响起之际，美国总统特朗普又挥舞起他的关税"大刀"， 甚至又一次公然向金砖国家发出威胁，这很快引发金砖国家反击。 当地时间7月7日，在金砖国家领导人里约热内卢峰会后，巴西总统卢拉接受采访时猛批特朗普的威胁， 他告诉记者："世界已经变了，我们不需要一个皇帝。"卢拉强调，金砖国家想要从经济角度寻找另一种 全球组织方式，这正是某些人感到不安的原因。 中国外交部发言人毛宁7日下午在例行记者会上应询表示，"关于加征关税，中方已经多次阐明了立场 ——贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。" 据路透社报道，在里约热内卢举行的金砖峰会结束时，当记者问及特朗普的关税威胁时，卢拉坚定地表 示："世界已经变了。我们不需要一个皇帝。" 2025年7月7日，巴西里约热内卢，巴西总统卢拉在第17届金砖国家峰会新闻发布会上讲话。视觉中国 卢拉再次表达了他关于全球贸易应当摆脱对美元依赖的看法。 "世界必须找到一种方式，使我们的贸易关系不必非要通过美元来进行。"卢拉在峰会结束后的记者会上 表示。 "当然，我们必须对此采取谨慎负责的态度。我们的中央银行需要与其他国家的中央银行进行讨论，"他 补充道，" ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement by President Trump regarding new tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. from over ten countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates starting at 25% and reaching up to 40% for Laos and Myanmar [1] - The new tariffs will take effect on August 1 and will apply to "all goods" from the specified countries, not limited to specific industries [1] - The existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products under Section 232 will remain in place but will not be combined with the new tariffs [1] Group 2 - Countries that do not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. will face punitive tariffs of up to 70% starting in August [3] - Trump has signed and sent out approximately 12 letters to various countries regarding these tariffs [3] - Additional 10% tariffs will be imposed on countries aligning with BRICS nations and executing "anti-American policies" [4]

2025 年上半年中国宏观经济表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，中国的 GDP 表现好于预期。一季度 GDP 增长率为 5.4%，二 季度预计实现 4.9%至 5%的增长水平。整体来看，上半年的宏观数据为完成全 年 5%的 GDP 增长目标奠定了良好基础。然而，房地产投资和销售数据下滑、 出口持续性面临挑战、年轻人失业率高企以及居民收入增速放缓等问题依然存 在。此外，工业品价格指数、CPI 和 GDP 平减指数均为负值，显示出价格领域 的下行压力，这也影响了消费预期和投资者信心。 静水流深 - 下半年宏观经济十大亮点 20250707 摘要 中国经济面临多重挑战，包括房地产市场低迷、出口不确定性增加、就 业市场压力大以及居民收入增速放缓，这些问题制约企业利润、产能利 用率及投资信心。 中国在全球贸易中的地位依然稳固，出口份额占全球比重稳定上升，表 明中国综合国力不断提升，坚持制造强国和科技创新将继续推动其在全 球产业链中的核心地位。 美国预计将在 2025 年下半年进入降息周期，美元走弱，人民币汇率有 望企稳甚至回升，利好中国宏观经济发展及资金流动，对 A 股市场也是 利好消息，同时利好香港资本市场。 港股市场 ...