Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the A-share market, highlighting the rise of coal and aluminum stocks while other previously hot sectors like semiconductors are experiencing corrections [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coal sector, led by Dayou Energy, has seen significant gains, with Dayou Energy achieving an 8-day consecutive rise and a 10-day total of 9 rises [1]. - Other coal companies such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Yunmei Energy have followed suit, hitting their upper price limits [2]. - In contrast, sectors like semiconductors and optical packaging are undergoing adjustments, with previously hot stocks like Xinyi Technology and Hanwang experiencing declines after brief rebounds [2][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are questioning the performance of their portfolios despite the Shanghai Composite Index remaining around 3900 points, indicating a disconnect between index performance and individual stock performance [3]. - The article suggests that investors should be cautious and recognize the current market state to avoid blind investment decisions [6][7]. Group 3: Structural Adjustments - The market is undergoing structural adjustments, with funds shifting towards previously undervalued stocks and dividend-paying stocks, while hot sectors are seeing profit-taking [5][6]. - The recent surge in coal prices is attributed to seasonal demand increases, with the Qinhuangdao coal price index rising to 684 yuan/ton, marking a 4 yuan increase week-on-week [5]. - The aluminum sector is also gaining traction due to supply constraints, as Century Aluminum reported production cuts affecting 200,000 tons of capacity [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article posits that the A-share market is in a transitional phase characterized by volatility, with ongoing adjustments expected as the U.S.-China trade negotiations continue [6][7]. - Investors are advised to either align with current market trends or remain patient for new opportunities [7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.09%, down 24 points, closing at 25,757 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.81% [1] - The trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 134.8 billion in the morning session [1] - Chinese banks continued their recent upward trend, with Postal Savings Bank (01658) rising over 3%, supported by multiple catalysts for bank revaluation according to Morgan Stanley [1] - China Hongqiao (01378) increased by 3.07%, demonstrating confidence through large-scale continuous buybacks amid emerging disruptions in the aluminum industry [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) rose by 1.49%, with September heavy truck exports reaching a record high of 15,000 units, and annual exports expected to exceed 150,000 units [1] - Giant Bio (02367) rebounded over 5% after the controlling shareholder increased holdings by 500,000 shares, with Citigroup stating that the market overreacted to pre-sale performance [1] Group 2 - Chip stocks continued to decline, with the U.S. planning to restrict key software exports, while institutions are optimistic about the acceleration of domestic self-sufficiency. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) fell by 6%, and Shanghai Fudan (01385) dropped by 6.43% [1] - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index plummeted by 4%, with constituents such as Jiajian Pharmaceutical-B (02617) and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) both declining over 5% [1] - Apple-related stocks experienced significant declines, with Q Technology (01478) dropping nearly 4% and GoerTek (01415) falling by 3.3%. Notably, renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo indicated that iPhone Air demand is below expectations, leading the supply chain to reduce shipments and production capacity [1] - China Aluminum International (02068) fell over 8%, as the market focused on potential transactions involving China Aluminum and Rio Tinto, given the company's extensive overseas operational experience [1] Group 3 - Guanghetong (00638) saw a decline of over 8% on its second day of trading, having dropped nearly 20% from its IPO price [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) shows strong market performance with a nearly 4% increase in early trading, reflecting investor confidence amid ongoing share buybacks and positive industry dynamics [1] Company Summary - China Hongqiao's share price rose by 2.75% to HKD 26.14, with a trading volume of HKD 471 million [1] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, spending HKD 7.5941 million to buy back 300,000 shares on October 14, and a total of HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, indicating strong confidence from the board and management in the company's long-term strategy and growth [1] Industry Summary - Century Aluminum announced a significant reduction in production at its Grundartangi aluminum smelter due to a fault, affecting 200,000 tons of capacity and reducing output by approximately two-thirds, which represents about 0.3% of global capacity [1] - South32 indicated a high probability of the Mozal aluminum smelter being offline for maintenance due to power supply issues, potentially affecting 500,000 tons of capacity by March 2026 [1] - Citic Securities highlighted that the Mozal shutdown could have significant implications for the aluminum industry, suggesting a tightening supply constraint and potential upward pressure on prices, while Guohai Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for the aluminum sector due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand [1]

SHMET 网讯：外电10月22日消息，据S&P Global Commodity insights旗下的Platts评估，10月22日，日本四季度铝升水为较伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货价 格每吨高出86美元(CIF日本主要港口，即MJP)，环比下降20.4%，2025年三季度为每吨高出108美元。 在需求方面，市场参与者表示，来自日本国内建造建筑行业和汽车行业的需求仍然疲弱，早些时候，汽车行业的需求受到4月2日生效的美国25%汽车关 税的影响，该关税税率后来被下调至15%，从9月16日起对日本和其他国家生效。 -些市场参与者表示，在关税降低后，预计未来几个月需求将略有改善。 磋商期间的升水报价范围介于每吨92-103美元(CIF日本)，较三季度的MP水平低5%-15%，四季度升水的最低报价要比四季度达成的MJP水平高出7%。 对四季度MJP的买兴疲弱，因为在日本需求疲软的情况下，现货MJP升水水平明显降低。但不久之后便听闻买家的预期在每吨80美元的范围内。 在整个第四季度MJP谈判过程中，99.7% P1020/1020A铝锭的Plats现货升水为较LME现货铝每吨高出60-62美元(CIF日本主要港口)之 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, with stable consumption growth and a slight decline in social inventory. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. - For alumina, the supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. The current fundamental data shows few positive factors, and uncertainties need to be watched before and after the Guinea general election on December 28 [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,860 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium remains unchanged at - 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,000 yuan/ton, closed at 21,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,070 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 132,730 lots, and the position was 257,199 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 625,000 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 67,270 tons, with a change of - 2,127 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 482,525 tons, with a change of - 1,600 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On October 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,880 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,809 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, with a change of 34 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,842 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 268,015 lots, and the position was 355,935 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 22, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,700 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,496 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 204 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production of one production line due to electrical equipment failure, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In Shandong, about 10,000 tons were traded at a point - price, and the transaction price was concentrated at 2,790 - 2,800 yuan/ton, mainly non - standard products. The supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. Before and after the Guinea general election on December 28, uncertainties need to be watched [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum (cautiously), neutral on alumina, bullish on aluminum alloy (cautiously). - Arbitrage: Long spread on Shanghai aluminum [9]

中信证券发布研报称，10月21日世纪铝业(CENX.US)公告其Grundartangi铝冶炼厂故障减产，涉及产能 20万吨，产量减少约三分之二，约占全球产能的0.3%。此前，8月，南拓32公告其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于 电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及产能50万吨;该行认为Mozal停产概率较高，或有成为铝行 业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰动抬头苗头初现，该行持续看好铝板块盈利估值齐 升行情。 该行计算Mozal铝厂占用莫桑比克全国发电量比例约43%，出口占比30%，但是GDP贡献占比仅为3.0- 3.2%，且由于税收减免政策税收占比小于0.2%。与之相比，莫桑比克政府持股HCB85%股权，后者分 红占比其财政收入2%左右。由此可见Mozal资源消耗以及经济贡献明显不均，且对于当地财政贡献显著 小于其电力供应商。据此，该行预计Mozal停产已成为大概率事件。Mozal铝厂2024年产量为49.3万吨， 约占全球产能的0.7%。考虑Mozal地缘政治背景和供需平衡影响，该行认为Mozal停产或有成为铝行业 Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。 供给约束持续强化，铝板块盈利 ...

中铝国际董事长李宜华近日在接受上海证券报记者专访时表示，中铝国际拥有全球服务的能力，其海外 经验和业绩都十分丰富。据介绍，公司已拥有14家境外机构，建立了海外重点市场6个大区域，基本实 现了覆盖全球的属地化海外经营，向印度尼西亚、意大利、几内亚等几十个国家和地区输出了技术、设 备，与40多个国家和地区的企业、科研机构、大学建立了合作关系。 消息面上，据华尔街见闻引述媒体报道，力拓集团正在探索与中国铝业（601600）集团有限公司进行资 产换股权的可能性。报道称，中铝集团将用其部分持股，换取力拓部分矿业资产的合作关系。互换可以 让力拓更果断地配置资本并进行并购。中铝集团可能感兴趣的资产包括几内亚的西芒杜铁矿石项目和蒙 古国的奥尤陶勒盖铜矿。另一项可能的交换可能包括力拓的钛业务。 中铝国际（601068）(02068)昨日暴涨30%，今日早盘回落逾10%，截至发稿，跌7.69%，报3港元，成交 额1.46亿港元。 ...

▍Mozal停产概率维持高位，或将成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀 拜俊飞 陈剑凡 10月21日，世纪铝业公告其Grundartangi铝冶炼厂故障减产，涉及产能20万吨。此前，8月，南拓32公告 其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及产能50万吨；我们认为Mozal停产概 率较高，或有成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰动抬头苗头初现，我们持续 看好铝板块盈利估值齐升行情。 ▍事件：世纪铝业旗下Grundartangi铝厂故障减产。 10月21日，世纪铝业公告其因电气设备故障，暂停了位于冰岛Grundartangi铝冶炼厂两条电解槽生产线 中的一条。此次停产使该冶炼厂的产量减少约三分之二。世纪铝业目前正在进行影响评估，并制定获取 替换设备和恢复全面生产的时间表，计划在11月6日举行的季度财报电话会议上提供有关最新信息。 Grundartangi铝冶炼厂2024年产量为30.8万吨，本次影响产能约20万吨/年，约占全球产能的0.3%。 ▍此前Mozal宣布计划停产维修，铝行业供给扰动苗条已现。 8 ...

中信证券指出，Grundartangi铝冶炼厂2024年产量为30.8万吨，本次影响产能约20万吨/年，约占全球产 能的0.3%。此前，8月，南拓32公告其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及 产能50万吨。Mozal停产概率较高，或有成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰 动抬头苗头初现，持续看好铝板块盈利估值齐升行情。 据市场消息，铝生产商世纪铝业近日公告其因电气设备故障，暂停了位于冰岛Grundartangi铝冶炼厂两 条电解槽生产线中的一条。此次停产使该冶炼厂的产量减少约三分之二。世纪铝业目前正在进行影响评 估，并制定获取替换设备和恢复全面生产的时间表，计划在11月6日举行的季度财报电话会议上提供有 关最新信息。 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It analyzes the impact of geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data on market movements. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Commodity Futures**: US oil and Brent crude rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories. International precious metals also increased, supported by multiple factors. London base metals mostly rose, and domestic futures contracts had a mix of gains and losses [3][4]. - **Financial Markets**: A-shares had a narrow - range oscillation, while the Hong Kong stock market declined. The report also mentioned policy initiatives in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as the investment outlooks of well - known fund managers [35]. Important News Macro News - Russia's Federal Council abolished the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US. - From October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year but increased by 7% compared to the previous month. - Trump's peace efforts faced setbacks as Russia launched attacks on Ukraine. - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high in the first three quarters [8][9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE, increased. - China's methanol port inventory rose. - US crude exports and production decreased, and commercial crude inventory declined. - The US sanctioned Russian oil companies [11][12][15]. Metal Futures - The new chairman of LBMA called for revitalizing the UK's gold futures trading. - Century Aluminum's subsidiary halted a production line due to a fault. - China's September refined copper and alumina production increased. - Polysilicon production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. - Environmental controls affected lead - related transportation in Hebei. - China's September industrial silicon production increased. - Angola's first large - scale copper mine is about to start production [17][18][21]. Black - Series Futures - Some coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production, and steel mills in Northeast China had mixed production status. - Inner Mongolia closed 4.3 - meter coke ovens and implemented cement production curbs. - Vale's iron ore production and sales increased in Q3. - National key steel product production, inventory, and demand data showed changes [23][26]. Agricultural Futures - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased. - US soybeans were stored instead of exported. - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased. - Russia lowered wheat export tariffs. - China's pork prices may have reached the annual low. - Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase [28][30][33]. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares had a narrow - range movement with sector rotation. The Hong Kong stock market declined. - Shenzhen introduced a plan to promote high - quality M&A. - HKEX is collaborating on multiple projects with the mainland. - Well - known fund managers adjusted their portfolios [35]. Industry News - China released a new energy vehicle technology roadmap. - Small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. - The game version numbers were released. - China's geographic information industry is expected to grow. - Civil aviation industry data showed growth. - Nanjing introduced a housing provident fund policy for multi - child families [39][41]. Overseas News - US federal debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown continued. - Trump canceled a meeting with Putin, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. - Japan plans new economic measures, and India may reach a trade deal with the US. - The Fed plans to relax bank capital requirements. - Japan's exports increased, and UK inflation data affected market expectations [44][49]. International Stocks - US stocks declined due to trade concerns and disappointing earnings. - European stocks had a mixed performance. - Singapore plans to support listed companies. - Tesla and IBM released their Q3 financial reports [50][51]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, precious metals increased, and base metals mostly went up. - Vale's iron ore production reached a high level [52][54]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had a narrow - range movement, and US bond yields declined. - Indonesia plans to issue RMB - denominated bonds, and SoftBank plans to raise funds through bond issuance [55][60]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high. - The RMB and other currencies had exchange rate fluctuations [61]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released, including Japan's stock and bond transactions, China's RMB payment share, and various countries' inflation and consumer confidence data. - Multiple central bank events and important conferences are scheduled, such as China's central bank open - market operations and international industry conferences [64][66].