Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the consumer landscape in China, highlighting the shift from traditional brands to domestic brands driven by the new generation of consumers, particularly the Z generation, who prioritize practicality and value over brand prestige [3][4]. Group 1: Key Trends in New Consumption - The new consumption trend is characterized by a collective disillusionment with foreign brands, as consumers increasingly favor domestic products that offer better value for money [6][7]. - The rise of domestic brands is not driven by nationalism but by a rationalist approach to consumption, leading to a K-shaped differentiation among domestic brands, where innovative brands thrive while traditional ones decline [12][13]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards domestic electric vehicles, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the market share by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and consumer preferences [9][10]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - New consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, leading to a redefinition of social interactions and consumption patterns, where personal happiness takes precedence over societal expectations [28][32]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a boom, with record-high participation rates, reflecting the desire for personal experiences despite economic constraints [30][32]. - The rise of the "single economy" and "宅经济" (home economy) is reshaping consumer demands, with a preference for personalized, convenient products and services [34][35]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are rapidly declining as new consumption models emerge, exemplified by the success of snack wholesale stores that offer lower prices and a wider variety of products [20][23]. - The shift towards instant retail is gaining momentum, with projections indicating that the market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting a significant change in consumer purchasing behavior [36][37]. - The article emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to the changing landscape, as traditional strategies become less effective in the face of evolving consumer preferences [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of traditional high-end liquor brands like Moutai, which are struggling, versus the rising success of new consumer brands such as Pop Mart, Mixue Ice City, and Laopu Gold, which are thriving in the current market environment [1][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart has achieved a market valuation close to HKD 300 billion, driven by its successful LABUBU plush toy line and a comprehensive IP ecosystem that includes original IP incubation and a blind box mechanism [3][10]. - Mixue Ice City has over 46,000 stores globally, with annual revenue exceeding CNY 24.8 billion and net profit over CNY 4.4 billion, focusing on affordable pricing and quality [4][10]. - Laopu Gold reported sales of CNY 9.8 billion in 2024, a 166% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 254% to CNY 1.47 billion, targeting a younger demographic with culturally rich gold jewelry [5][10]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Pop Mart's strategy involves creating a complete IP incubation system and product lifecycle management, moving beyond just selling blind boxes to a broader range of products [7][14]. - Mixue Ice City emphasizes a strong supply chain and low-cost entry for franchisees, allowing for rapid expansion and high turnover in the beverage market [10][14]. - Laopu Gold differentiates itself by combining traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics, positioning itself in high-end shopping districts and appealing to a younger, fashion-conscious audience [15][16]. Group 3: Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers favoring products that offer emotional value and social currency, as seen in the success of the new consumer brands [9][18]. - The traditional high-end liquor market is experiencing a downturn, with brands like Moutai facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and a decline in the "banquet culture" [18][19]. - The new consumer brands are capitalizing on the demand for affordable, trendy, and culturally relevant products, indicating a significant transformation in the consumption landscape [1][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [23][24] - The beauty sector performed well during the 618 festival, with total GMV across four major platforms reaching 65.9 billion yuan, growing over 10% year-on-year [23][24] - International high-end beauty brands showed signs of recovery, with brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder maintaining strong positions on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2062.20 points, down 2.75% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points [5][14] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.89%, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][17] 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 618 shopping festival was extended to the longest duration in history, from May 13 to June 20, 2025 [23] - Tmall's GMV during the festival grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [24][29] - Douyin's e-commerce saw over 60,000 brands doubling their sales, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][35] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, Mao Ge Ping, and Pei Lai Ya, among others [38] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [37] - Mao Ge Ping achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for FY2024, growing by 34.6%, with a net profit increase of 33% [37] - Pei Lai Ya's revenue for 2024 was 10.778 billion yuan, up 21%, with a net profit increase of 30% [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising gold prices on the jewelry industry, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional gold jewelry retailers like Chow Tai Fook amid changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][5][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2022, gold prices have seen significant increases, with average closing prices for Au9999 rising by 5%, 15%, and 24% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - Despite an initial increase in gold jewelry consumption by 8% in 2023, there was a sharp decline of 24.7% thereafter, indicating that high gold prices can dampen consumer demand for jewelry [5]. - The market pressure is particularly acute for gold jewelry stores that rely on processing fees, leading to operational challenges [6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook's stock price dropped over 30% in 2024, with a market value loss of approximately 800 million HKD from its peak [7]. - The company's financial performance fell short of expectations, with net profit significantly below market forecasts and gross margins at their lowest since 2009 [8]. - Despite these challenges, Chow Tai Fook's stock has rebounded since April 2024, with significant increases in the A-share market and Hong Kong jewelry index [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook closed 180 stores in mainland China in 2024, reducing its total store count from 7,549 to 6,644 by the end of the 2025 fiscal year [15][16]. - The company aims to focus on "high-quality new stores" rather than sheer expansion, optimizing its channel layout and reducing inventory pressure [17]. - The decline in store numbers is seen as a correction of past over-expansion, which may ultimately benefit the company's operational efficiency [17]. Group 4: Profitability and Growth - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit margin improved by 4 percentage points to 16.4% in the 2025 fiscal year, with operating profit increasing by 9.8% to 14.75 billion HKD [20]. - The company's gross margin rose against the trend of declining margins in the industry, reaching 29.5%, second only to the leading brand, Lao Pu Gold [23]. - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the "fixed price" model, which includes design and craftsmanship, enhancing the perceived value of products [24]. Group 5: Consumer Trends - The demand for gold jewelry in China has remained strong, with the retail contribution of gold jewelry reaching 59% in 2024 [32]. - Younger consumers, particularly those aged 25 to 34, have significantly increased their share of gold jewelry purchases, rising from 16% to 59% [36]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards lightweight, well-designed gold jewelry has led to a rise in sales of products weighing less than 10 grams and priced below 2,000 RMB [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The gold jewelry industry is undergoing a transformation, with a notable shift towards e-commerce and personalized products driven by younger consumers [42][43]. - Despite the challenges, established brands like Chow Tai Fook are expected to recover due to their strong brand presence and ability to adapt to market trends [46]. - Long-term prospects for gold jewelry companies remain positive, with franchise models offering lower capital investment and strong profitability potential [48].

Industry Changes - In May, domestic brands such as Zhenjia, Feicui, PA, and Perfect Diary showed strong performance on Tmall and Douyin, with Feicui's GMV exceeding 60 million, and several brands achieving over 100% growth [1] - The import value of cosmetics in May decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, totaling 10.19 billion, indicating a downward trend in overall imported cosmetics despite some recovery among foreign beauty brands [2] Company Updates - Ruoyu Chen raised its share repurchase price significantly from 30.22 yuan to 88.4 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [1] - Ying Tong Group, a major player in the Chinese perfume market, is preparing for its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with projected revenue of 2.083 billion for FY2025, representing an 11.8% year-on-year increase [2] - Juzi Holding Co., Ltd, the controlling shareholder of Juzi Biotechnology, plans to increase its stake by no less than 200 million HKD, indicating confidence in the company's long-term value [2] Retail Sector Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 89.66 billion HKD for FY25, a decrease of 17.5%, but showed signs of recovery with a narrowing decline in retail sales [4] - Yonghui Supermarket is accelerating its store renovation plan, aiming to complete renovations for 300 stores by the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Investment Recommendations - The current low valuation combined with new consumer growth remains a core theme, with a focus on domestic leading brands and the upcoming 618 shopping festival as a potential catalyst [3] - The jewelry sector is recommended, particularly Chow Tai Fook, with attention to other low-valuation Hong Kong jewelry companies [6][14] - New consumption trends in the jewelry sector are expected to drive growth, with a shift in consumer demographics towards younger buyers and a focus on self-purchase attributes [10][12]

最近，国际现货黄金价格"跌跌不休"。 中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢认为， 目前国际黄金价格处于3500美元遇阻承压回落调整阶段，长 期上涨趋势并未改变 ，预计年内突破3500美元概率较高。值得一提的是，中国、越南、印度等新兴市 场国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 欧洲中央银行近日发布的报告指出， 黄金供给的变化是未来金价走势的重要变量 。以往经验表明，黄 金供给曾对需求上升做出弹性反应，未来官方部门的黄金储备需求若进一步上升，可能会带动全球黄金 供给进一步增加。 国内各品牌金饰价格也随之波动， 金饰克价4天跌15元~19元不等 。其中，周生生足金饰品价格呈现出 5天4跌态势。6月15日-20日周生生足金饰品克单价分别为1038元、1037元、1024元、1023元、1023元、 1020元，6月20日较15日每克下跌18元。 此外，老庙黄金为1012元/克，较16日下跌19元/克；周大福为1020元/克，较16日下跌15元/克；老凤祥 为1018元/克，较16日下跌17元/克。 | EASIX | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 避险抗通胀,长期配黄金 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the emergence of a "new consumption" sector driven by external market fluctuations, subdued domestic demand, and a scarcity of quality consumer assets, suggesting that structured opportunities will continue to evolve in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" trend is characterized as a strong alpha market that is less affected by macro disturbances, with quality new consumer brands experiencing growth due to structural dividends and product cycles [2] - Sectors such as beauty care and gold jewelry are expected to see a recovery in optional consumption, with brands that have differentiated market experiences likely to achieve counter-cyclical growth [2] Group 2: IP and AI Opportunities - The IP retail industry in China, exemplified by companies like Sanrio, has maintained high levels of prosperity since 2021, with a complete and high-quality industrial chain emerging from content production to diverse consumer monetization [3] - The AI sector is also witnessing increased application scenarios and consumer payment conversions, particularly in human resource management and B2B cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 3: Offline Retail and Services - The overall revenue growth for offline services and retail is expected to remain under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement in consumption data at both the macro and micro levels [4] - The combination of policy support and low base effects is anticipated to sustain the upward trend in consumption data, with specific sectors like hotels and personal services showing signs of stabilization and growth [4]

6月19日，港股低开低走，恒生指数收跌1.99%，报23237.74点；恒生科技指数跌2.42%， 报 5088.32点；恒生中国企业指数跌 2.13%，报8410.94点。全日大市成交额 为 2201亿港元，南向资金净买入额 为 14.27亿港元。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 23237.74 8410.94 | | 5088.32 | | -472.95 -1.99% -183.25 -2.13% -126.09 -2.42% | | | 石药集团跌6.40%，中升控股跌5.94%，阿里健康跌5.26%，领跌蓝筹。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 石约集团 | 1093 | 7.610 c | -0.520 | -6.40% | 24.60亿 | 61.26% | | 2 | 中升控股 | 0881 | 11.720 c | -0.740 | -5.94% | 1.03亿 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The conference discusses the gold and jewelry industry, focusing on major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chao Hong Ji, along with their sales performance and strategic adjustments for 2024 and 2025 [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Growth**: In the first half of 2024, Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang experienced an overall growth of approximately 5 percentage points, while Chao Hong Ji showed a significant growth of around 30% [1][2]. - **Impact of Gold Prices**: Excluding the impact of rising gold prices (approximately 10%), sales volumes for most brands have declined, with only Chao Hong Ji maintaining stable growth [1][6]. - **Store Adjustments**: Chow Tai Fook plans to maintain its current number of stores without closures, while Chao Hong Ji intends to close underperforming stores to enhance overall performance, targeting a growth rate of 25% for the year [1][7]. - **Store Opening Costs**: New stores for Changhong Jiahua typically range from 60 to 80 square meters, with initial investments of approximately 7 to 9 million yuan, requiring 8 to 10 kilograms of gold for inventory [1][9]. - **Profit Margins**: The profit margins for different gold products are as follows: weight-based gold has a profit margin of about 5% to 8%, while fixed-price gold has a profit margin of around 15% [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Adjustments**: Major brands like Chow Tai Fook are undergoing significant nationwide adjustments, with plans to close 5,000 to 6,000 stores to streamline operations [1][11]. - **Consumer Trends**: The consumer base for Changhong Jiahua includes both general consumers overlapping with brands like Chow Tai Fook and high-end customers interested in traditional craftsmanship [22]. - **Digital Transformation**: The industry has been forced to undergo digital transformation due to the pandemic, focusing on online product displays and digital management systems [29][30]. - **Tax Implications**: The gold consumption tax has severely impacted the jewelry industry, particularly affecting non-compliant franchisees who face significant tax liabilities [4][41]. - **Market Competition**: Non-leading brands are also showing competitive potential, with some achieving sales comparable to leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [42]. Conclusion The gold and jewelry industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating gold prices, strategic store adjustments, and evolving consumer preferences. Major brands are focusing on maintaining profitability while adapting to market challenges and opportunities for growth.

Group 1: Retail Industry Overview - The retail industry is focusing on three main investment themes for the second half of 2025: strong product momentum, improved operational conditions, and large comprehensive enterprises [7] - The beauty and personal care sector is showing strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of 62.51% in Q1 2025 for companies like Jinbo Biological and 28.01% for Marubi Biological [38] - The jewelry sector is witnessing a shift towards lighter and more affordable gold products, driven by younger consumers and the trend of diversification in the market [7] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Sales Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [14] - The consumer confidence index showed a recovery trend in early 2025, indicating a positive outlook for retail consumption [14] - The beauty and jewelry categories experienced year-on-year retail sales growth of 5.48% and 8.06% respectively in the same period [14] Group 3: E-commerce and Offline Trends - E-commerce sales showed a mixed performance, with a total sales index of 50.6% in May 2025, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous months [23] - The offline retail market is stabilizing, with a noticeable recovery in shop rental rates, which reached 53.6% in April and May 2025 [29] - The operating space index showed fluctuations but remained stable, indicating a cautious approach to new store openings [29] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product momentum and operational improvements, such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi Biological [62] - The beauty sector is highlighted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their strong performance metrics [62] - The medical beauty sector is also emphasized, particularly companies that are expanding their product lines and improving operational capabilities [7][63]