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黄金飙涨4600美元:是机遇还是泡沫?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 02:50
美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议上的鸽派表态,就像给黄金市场打了强心针。当"维持利率不变"的表态遇上中东炮火,避险资金疯狂涌入金市。数据显 示,全球黄金ETF持仓量单周激增28吨,创下2020年疫情以来最大增幅。 凌晨三点,北京菜百首饰柜台前已排起长队。这些手握存折的大妈们可能不懂美联储加息缩表,但她们认准了一个理:"黄金什么时候买都不亏!"就在这种 狂热氛围中,国际金价冲上4600美元历史高位,背后究竟是避险需求还是投机狂欢? 金价暴涨背后的推手 更值得警惕的是"巴菲特恐惧指数"。该指数突破0.38警戒线时,黄金在随后半年平均回调12%-15%。而当前读数已达0.41,与2000年互联网泡沫时期持平。 汇丰银行最新报告直白警告:年底前金价可能回落至4587美元。 普通投资者的两难抉择 面对周大福挂牌价突破1365元/克的首饰金,消费者陷入典型的行为经济学陷阱:"现在不买会更贵"。但数据显示,当恐惧指数与金油比双双重磅预警时, 追高买入的投资者三年收益率普遍跑输通胀2-3个百分点。 专业机构早已开始调仓。全球最大黄金ETF—SPDR Gold Shares近期出现连续净赎回,而各国央行购金节奏也在放缓。这种"聪 ...
【实探】首饰金价突破1400元/克,消费者购金热情退却
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 13:46
12月23日,随着国际国内金价创下历史新高,多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的首饰金报价也水涨船高,突破1400元/克关口。其中,周大福、周生生首饰金报价均 达到1403元/克,老庙黄金报价达到1402元/克,六福珠宝、金至尊报价达到1401元/克。 | 居美 ( 饰品、工艺品类 ) | 1403元/ | | --- | --- | | 工艺金章金条类 | 1230元/ | 图片来源:周大福官方微信公众号 品牌铂金价格也同步走高。12月23日,950铂金饰品价格达到861元/克。 中国证券报·中证金牛座记者当日走访北京地区多家品牌金店发现,多数门店内并无顾客,仅有销售人员。部分品牌推出圣诞、新年主题活动,但优惠力度 有限;也有门店打出 "进店就有好礼相送" 的广告,试图吸引客流。有导购对记者表示,受金价持续飙升影响,近几日门店的购金者很少。 本报记者 董添/摄 对于金价飙升的原因,业内普遍认为,市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续升温,全球实物黄金ETF持续净流入,均为金价上行提供支撑。 广发证券研报显示,美国实际利率和美元指数预期持续走弱,推动金价上涨。随着金价快速上行且高位运行,2026年黄金企业业绩有望全面释放。 ...
深圳水贝下架“投资金” 相关人士独家回应
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 12:56
Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in pricing at the Shenzhen Shui Bei market reflects the impact of the new gold tax policy, leading to the removal of the distinction between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" in pricing, as the market adapts to changes in profitability and consumer behavior [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Changes - The Shui Bei market, known as China's largest gold and jewelry wholesale market, has stopped displaying "investment gold" prices following the new tax policy introduced in November [1][2]. - The market's pricing system has shifted to only show prices for gold, platinum, and silver, with gold prices now closely resembling the previous "jewelry gold" prices [4][5]. - The adjustment is attributed to the differentiation in profit margins between member and non-member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, leading to a reduced number of participants in the investment gold business [7][9]. Group 2: Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types, encouraging investment gold to be traded on centralized exchanges [2][8]. - The tax reform has resulted in increased costs for non-investment gold, which may lead to higher retail prices for consumers [9]. - The policy aims to promote a healthier industry development by concentrating investment gold transactions within member units of the exchange, while non-investment gold faces higher tax burdens [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Shui Bei market is experiencing a transition period as many merchants adapt to the new tax regulations, with some ceasing investment gold sales altogether [5][6]. - The market is characterized by a "front store, back factory" model, where most businesses do not hold licenses for financial investment, focusing instead on wholesale operations [6][10]. - Future strategies for the Shui Bei market may involve enhancing supply chain support and exploring new avenues in branding, talent acquisition, and quality assurance [10].
深圳水贝下架“投资金”,相关人士回应
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 12:55
Core Insights - The price of gold has reached a historical high, leading to the discreet removal of "investment gold" from the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [1] - Following the announcement of new gold tax policies in November, the pricing display in Shui Bei has undergone multiple adjustments, eliminating the distinction between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [1] - The Shui Bei market's operator, Shui Bei Hui, has also removed "investment gold" from its pricing app, with some merchants stating that "there is no more investment gold in the Shui Bei market" [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Changes** - The Shui Bei market, the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China, has stopped differentiating between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" in its pricing [1] - The pricing system adjustment is attributed to the new gold tax policy, which has created a disparity in profit margins between member and non-member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] - **Regulatory Impact** - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types, encouraging investment gold to enter centralized trading platforms like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The Shui Bei Hui's response indicates that the changes aim to prevent consumer confusion regarding gold pricing [1]
深圳水贝下架“投资金” 相关人士回应
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 12:33
来源:滚动播报 金价再创历史新高之际,水贝"投资金"低调下架。自11月黄金税收新政发布以来,作为全国最大的黄金 珠宝批发市场,深圳水贝的金价标注方式已经历多次调整,先是大屏幕分别显示"投资金"与"首饰金"价 格。近日,记者走访发现,水贝市场不再区分"投资金"与"首饰金",报价屏幕运营方"水贝会"小程序亦 同步隐去了"投资金"。部分水贝商家在社交平台上表示,"水贝市场再无投资金"。今年11月,《关于黄 金有关税收政策的公告》发布,将投资性、非投资性黄金分类管理,并鼓励投资金进入上金所、上期所 集中交易。(21世纪经济报道) ...
21现场|深圳水贝下架“投资金” 相关人士独家回应
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-23 12:11
Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in pricing at Shenzhen's Shui Bei market reflects the impact of new gold tax policies, leading to the removal of "investment gold" pricing and a shift towards a unified pricing model for gold products [2][12]. Group 1: Market Changes - The Shui Bei market, known as China's largest gold and jewelry wholesale market, has stopped distinguishing between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" in its pricing displays [1][10]. - Following the announcement of the new gold tax policy in November, the market has undergone multiple pricing adjustments, with the latest change eliminating the public display of "investment gold" prices [2][12]. - The new tax policy encourages investment gold to be traded on centralized exchanges, leading to a significant shift in how gold is priced and sold in the market [12][15]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The price of gold in the Shui Bei market has risen, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing prices exceed 1400 RMB per gram, while Shui Bei's prices have surpassed 1160 RMB per gram [2][4]. - Previously, "investment gold" was typically priced about 100 RMB lower per gram than "jewelry gold," but this distinction has been removed, leading to a more uniform pricing structure [7][10]. - The market's pricing adjustments are attributed to the need to avoid consumer confusion and the realization that the profitability of investment gold has diminished for many non-member merchants [12][15]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The new tax regulations have created a clear divide in profitability between member and non-member units in the gold trading sector, with only a limited number of member units remaining active in the investment gold business [12][14]. - The shift towards centralized trading is expected to enhance the concentration of investment gold transactions within a smaller number of entities, potentially benefiting larger brands in the long term [15]. - The Shui Bei market is undergoing a transformation phase, with industry stakeholders recognizing the need to adapt to new consumer behaviors and market conditions, focusing on supply chain support and brand development [15].
深圳水贝下架投资金,负责人回应原因
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-23 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in the pricing system of Shenzhen's Shui Bei market reflect the impact of the new gold tax policy, leading to the removal of "investment gold" pricing and a shift towards a unified pricing model for gold products [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Changes - The Shui Bei market, known as China's largest gold and jewelry wholesale market, has stopped distinguishing between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" in its pricing displays [1][2]. - Following the announcement of the new gold tax policy in November, the market has undergone multiple adjustments in its pricing strategy, with the latest change being the removal of "investment gold" from public displays to avoid consumer confusion [2][4]. - The price of gold in Shui Bei has risen significantly, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing prices exceed 1400 RMB per gram, while Shui Bei's gold price has surpassed 1160 RMB per gram [2]. Group 2: Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types, encouraging investment gold to be traded on regulated exchanges, which has led to a decline in the profitability of non-member units in the Shui Bei market [7][8]. - The tax reform has resulted in a clear differentiation in profit margins between member and non-member units, with only about a dozen member units remaining active in the investment gold business [7][8]. - The changes in tax policy are expected to lead to a more concentrated market for investment gold, while increasing tax burdens on non-investment gold, potentially raising retail prices [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Shui Bei's business model, characterized as "front store, back factory," is facing challenges as many merchants are transitioning away from investment gold due to reduced profitability [5][6]. - The market is expected to adapt by focusing on consumer needs and enhancing supply chain support, with an emphasis on brand development, talent acquisition, and quality assurance in the gold jewelry industry [9]. - The Shui Bei market is projected to maintain a high customer flow, with estimates of over 120 million visitors by 2025, despite the ongoing adjustments in its operational model [5].
深圳水贝下架投资金,负责人回应原因
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-23 11:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the pricing system of gold in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, particularly the removal of the distinction between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" following the new gold tax policy implemented in November. This shift reflects the market's adaptation to regulatory changes and the evolving dynamics of gold trading in China [1][9]. Group 1: Market Changes - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market, known as the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China, has seen its pricing system adjust multiple times since the announcement of the new gold tax policy [1][6]. - As of December 22, 2023, the market no longer differentiates between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold," with the pricing screens only displaying gold, platinum, and silver prices [3][4]. - The price of gold in the Shui Bei market has surpassed 1160 yuan per gram, while major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have seen their gold jewelry prices exceed 1400 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 2.5% [1][3]. Group 2: Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types, encouraging investment gold to enter centralized trading platforms like the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1][9]. - The adjustment in pricing is attributed to the differentiation in profit margins between member and non-member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, leading to a reduced number of participants in the investment gold business [9][10]. - The tax reform has resulted in increased costs for non-investment gold, which may lead to higher retail prices for consumers [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Shui Bei market is experiencing a transition period, with many merchants ceasing investment gold operations due to diminishing profitability [6][11]. - The market's traditional pricing advantage over external markets is being challenged as the cost of acquiring gold approaches that of jewelry gold [6][11]. - Industry experts suggest that the Shui Bei market should focus on enhancing supply chain support and adapting to consumer needs, as the gold jewelry industry requires significant capital investment and strategic development [11].
黄金跌价了,金条降价,25年12月20日国内黄金、足金、金条最新价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 23:08
价差主要来自大批量的批发和更低的运营成本,银行的APP里又是另一套价格,工行"积存金"换实物是996元一克,建行是992元一克,基本跟着上海黄金交 易所的实时价走,没什么品牌加成,从1130到1168再到996,同样的黄金,标签完全不一样。 回收变现又是一个情况,中国黄金官方的回收基准价是950元一克,这个价只看纯度和重量,不看品牌,回收时不收折旧费,会扣检测费,街边那些写着"高 价回收1054元一克"的小店,很多会在秤上或者纯度上做手脚。 金价小幅回落!中国黄金1255元/克,水贝1130元/克,同金不同价的秘密 最近金价降了的消息传得挺热闹,中国黄金的足金999首饰挂牌价降到1255元一克,比上周少了12块,朋友圈里有人已经在商量要不要去金店"捡便宜",我 得提醒一句,真要冲进金店,先别急,你看到的那个价格,可能只是个开头。 同一家中国黄金,在深圳水贝卖的投资金条能低到1130元一克,可在北京、上海的柜台,投资金条的价却是1168元一克,光这一克就差出38块,这还只是开 始,再看银行,工行的投资金条才996元一克,比金店的指导价便宜了170多块,买黄金的门道,比想象中深得多。 中国黄金全国统一报价已经出来 ...
实探︱深圳水贝下架“投资金”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-20 11:24
Core Viewpoint - The recent tax policy changes regarding gold have significantly altered the pricing structure in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, affecting both consumer behavior and merchant operations [1]. Group 1: Market Changes - Following the announcement of the new tax policy on November 1, the Shui Bei market has seen a shift in its pricing system, with the distinction between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" being removed [1]. - Merchants have reported that the market management has become stricter, leading to the disappearance of "investment gold" from both online platforms and physical displays [1]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - Prior to the tax policy change, the Shui Bei market displayed only the market gold price, but after the initial confusion, it transitioned to showing both "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" prices, which has now reverted to a more simplified pricing structure [5]. - The current prices in the Shui Bei market are as follows: "investment gold" at 960 RMB per gram and "jewelry gold" at 1082 RMB per gram [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers have shown interest in the price differences between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold," often inquiring about purchasing gold jewelry at investment prices, which has led to confusion and longer explanations from merchants [5]. - Despite high gold prices potentially suppressing some consumer demand, the traditional peak season at the end of the year still holds potential for sales growth [5]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The World Gold Council has indicated that the new tax policy will have differing impacts on investment demand and jewelry consumption, with investment channels remaining largely unaffected while jewelry prices may rise due to tax burdens [6]. - The retail sector for gold jewelry may experience consolidation as businesses adapt to the new market conditions, focusing on innovative designs and craftsmanship to remain competitive [6].