黄金珠宝：新消费引领，金价共振 20250520 摘要 美国政策对美元信用及其影响有哪些？ 美国政策尤其是特朗普政府的一些做法可能进一步影响美元信用。例如限制全 球贸易政策不仅限制了贸易本身，也限制了全球对美元需求。如果大家对美国 政府信任感下降，会导致美债实际利率上行、汇率贬值以及黄金价格上涨。同 时其他国际货币如日元、欧元、英镑也会受益。因此，需要关注特朗普政府哪 些政策可能进一步削弱美元信用，从而推动这些变化。 全球产业链布局变化对未来投资有什么启示？ • 全球产业链布局变化，受中美贸易关系及地缘政治影响，不再仅考虑经济 因素，国家间关系稳定性成为重要考量，推动对黄金等避险资产的需求。 • 美国政策，如冻结外储和贸易限制，削弱美元信用，促使各国增加对黄金 的依赖，未来货币体系或将分化，黄金作为保值资产的重要性凸显。 • 尽管中美贸易关系及俄乌冲突可能缓解，但黄金价格上涨的宏观逻辑未变， 黄金定价需置于全球宏观变局和历史周期下考量。 • 美国作为全球中央银行，通过贸易赤字发行美元，关税政策破坏全球贸易 和货币体系，可能导致美债利率上升、美元贬值，利好黄金及其他国际货 币。 • 黄金定价框架已变，不再紧盯美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

黄金市场"跌跌不休"，国内品牌金价集体回调 继国际金价大幅跳水后，国内黄金市场也迎来"至暗时刻"——黄金期货三连跌，今日继续回落，大概率形成"四连跌"局 面。上午，各大金店火速调价，首饰金普遍下跌7-16元/克，多个品牌重回"千元以下"时代。 金条也扛不住？银行、品牌商集体降价 "段子手"疯狂玩梗："黄金跌成这样，不如买点白银，至少能打镯子……" 专家观点：短期承压，但长期仍有机会？ 尽管市场情绪低迷，但部分机构认为，黄金的长期逻辑并未改变： 美联储降息预期仍在，若经济数据恶化，金价可能再度反弹。 全球央行仍在增持黄金，对价格形成支撑。 地缘风险未完全消散，避险需求随时可能回归。 结论：普通人该咋办？ 不仅首饰金在跌，投资金条价格也全面回落。统计数据显示，20家主流银行及黄金品牌中，19家下调报价，仅1家"躺 平"不动。其中，13家跌幅超10元，周大生跌幅最猛，单日暴跌16元/克，让不少囤金条的投资者直呼"肉疼"。 网友吐槽：现在买金，是抄底还是接飞刀？ 面对金价持续下跌，网友们的反应两极分化—— "抄底党"摩拳擦掌："跌到900就梭哈！留给子孙当传家宝！" "观望派"瑟瑟发抖："别急，美联储还没出手，可能还 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, with international gold prices nearing $3,500 per ounce and domestic gold prices fluctuating around 1,000 yuan per gram, leading to increased public interest and discussions about gold investment [1][3][4] - The narrative of "buying gold to get rich" has gained traction, with stories of individuals making significant profits from gold purchases, such as a woman in Jiangsu who reportedly earned over 300,000 yuan from gold bought ten years ago [1][3] - Many new investors are entering the gold market, some borrowing money to buy gold or frequently trading, which has led to significant losses for some, including reports of individuals losing 470,000 yuan overnight due to price drops [1][3][4] Group 2 - Historical context shows that those who bought gold a decade ago often exited the market before realizing substantial gains, with many unable to withstand prolonged periods of low prices [10][11] - The gold market has seen fluctuations influenced by various factors, including central bank purchases and economic signals, with a reported increase of over 30% in gold prices since the beginning of the year [3][4] - Long-term holders of gold often possess a strong mindset and financial stability, allowing them to endure market volatility without panic selling [15][16][21] Group 3 - The preference for physical gold over financial products is evident among seasoned investors, who believe that holding tangible assets provides a sense of security and stability [20][21] - The gold market has evolved, with traditional retail facing challenges from new sales channels like e-commerce and live streaming, impacting profit margins for physical gold sellers [28][30] - The narrative surrounding gold as a reliable asset persists, with many viewing it as a long-term store of value rather than a quick path to wealth [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations in prices prompting both short-term adjustments and long-term investment considerations [9][11]. Price Movements - As of May 7, London gold spot prices fell by 1.5%, dropping below the 3380 mark, while COMEX gold futures decreased by nearly 0.9% [1][2]. - On May 8, London spot gold rebounded, reaching a high of 3413.73 USD/oz, indicating a quick recovery in the market [3]. Market Trends - The gold market has undergone a notable adjustment, with jewelry gold prices falling below 1000 CNY, and international gold prices nearly dropping below 3200 USD [6]. - Despite recent declines, many leading brands have seen their gold prices and international gold prices rise again following the holiday period [6]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that while the medium to long-term value of gold remains recognized, short-term price corrections are expected, potentially ranging from 5% to 10% [9]. - The increase in gold prices since early 2025 has been driven by significant inflows into ETFs, with a reported 29.4% rise in the first four months of 2025 [9]. Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April, indicating a structural shift in gold allocation [11]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that global central banks will purchase approximately 1000 tons of gold by 2025, with ETF net purchases expected to reach 450 tons [11]. Investment Risks - Financial institutions have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold price volatility, advising investors to be cautious, especially those using leverage for investments [10][11]. - The current market conditions suggest that gold prices may face pressure from potential Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with recent declines observed in both spot and futures markets, indicating volatility in the gold market [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of May 7, London gold spot price fell by 1.5% to 3379.640, while COMEX gold futures dropped nearly 0.9% to 3392.5 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw declines, with London silver down 1.97% and COMEX silver down 0.89% [2]. Market Trends - The gold market has shown a pattern of reversals, with prices dropping below $3200 during the recent holiday period, followed by a rebound as the holiday ended [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, gold prices increased by 29.4%, surpassing expectations, driven by significant inflows into ETFs [4]. Risk Warnings - Several commercial banks, including China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold price fluctuations [5]. - There are compliance risks associated with using credit cards or loans for gold investments, which could lead to penalties or credit score impacts if misused [5].

受金价回落影响，品牌首饰金报价普遍跌破千元/克大关。其中，老庙黄金报价987元/克，六福珠 宝、老凤祥、周六福、周大福报价998元/克。 "五一"假期，各大黄金珠宝品牌纷纷推出优惠活动，一些品牌优惠力度较大。 以周大生为例，记 者走访北京部分门店看到，优惠后金价为858元/克。 周大福则推出"指定定价类9折优惠，指定计价黄金类每克减60元"活动。 来源丨中国证券报 "五一"假期期间，记者对黄金消费市场进行走访发现，随着国际金价高位回落，叠加节日促销，品 牌首饰金报价普遍跌破千元/克大关，部分品牌首饰金报价重回"8字头"。 01 金价回调 Wind数据显示，近期，国际金价整体回落，COMEX黄金期货5月2日收报3247.4美元/盎司，相比 4月22日高点的3509.9美元/盎司，下降7.48%。 "活动从5月1日开始，目前预计一直会持续到6月份，如果国际金价大幅上涨，这项活动可能会随时 叫停。"周大福门店销售人员告诉记者。 02 金饰需求减弱 世界黄金协会发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价突破3000美元/盎司大 关的情况下，一季度的全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长 ...

"五一"假期期间，中国证券报记者对黄金消费市场进行走访发现，随着国际金价高位回落，叠加节日 促销，品牌首饰金报价普遍跌破千元/克大关，部分品牌首饰金报价重回"8字头"。 金价回调 Wind数据显示，近期，国际金价整体回落，COMEX黄金期货5月2日收报3247.4美元/盎司，相比4月 22日高点的3509.9美元/盎司，下降7.48%。 "活动从5月1日开始，目前预计一直会持续到6月份，如果国际金价大幅上涨，这项活动可能会随时叫 停。"周大福门店销售人员告诉中国证券报记者。 金饰需求减弱 世界黄金协会发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价突破3000美元/盎司大关 的情况下，一季度的全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%。一季度金条与金 币需求总量同比增长3%至325吨，创下金条和金币季度需求的历史第二高纪录。随着一季度全球金价 频频创历史新高，金饰需求遭遇负面冲击，需求量跌至2020年以来最低点。 中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示，2025年一季度，我国黄金消费量290.492吨，同比下降5.96%。其 中，黄金首饰134.531吨，同比下降26.85%；金条及金币138 ...

"五一"假期期间，记者对黄金消费市场进行走访发现，随着国际金价高位回落，叠加节日促销，品牌首 饰金报价普遍跌破千元/克大关，部分品牌首饰金报价重回"8字头"。 金价回调 中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示，2025年一季度，我国黄金消费量290.492吨，同比下降5.96%。其中， 黄金首饰134.531吨，同比下降26.85%；金条及金币138.018吨，同比增长29.81%；工业及其他用金 17.943吨，同比下降3.84%。 来源：中国证券报 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 周大福则推出"指定定价类9折优惠，指定计价黄金类每克减60元"活动。 "活动从5月1日开始，目前预计一直会持续到6月份，如果国际金价大幅上涨，这项活动可能会随时叫 停。"周大福门店销售人员告诉记者。 金饰需求减弱 世界黄金协会发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价突破3000美元/盎司大关的 情况下，一季度的全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长1%。一季度金条与金币需 求总量同比增长3%至325吨，创下金条和金币季度需求的历史第二高纪录。 随着一季度全球金价频频 创历史新高，金饰需 ...

Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, Italy, focusing on global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance the development of general and industry-specific large models and accelerate the construction of high-quality data sets in the industrial sector [2] - During the May Day holiday, the price of branded jewelry gold fell below 1,000 yuan per gram, with some brands returning to the "800s" [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 151,000 wage-related illegal cases were resolved, benefiting 662,000 workers with a total of 8.07 billion yuan in wages [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan aiming to reduce the average feed consumption per kilogram of animal products by over 0.2 kg by 2030, representing a reduction of more than 7% from 2023 [2] - The number of South Korean tourists visiting China reached 2.66 million in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [2] Group 3 - The eighth Digital China Construction Summit attracted over 360,000 participants, setting a new historical record [2] - As of May 4, the total box office for the 2025 May Day holiday period exceeded 600 million yuan, with "Dumpling Queen," "Hunting Game," and "Princess Mononoke" leading the box office rankings [2]