Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

为精准破解企业及经销商痛点，该行组建专项服务团队，多次深入企业生产车间、产业链合作现场开展 调研，与企业财务、采购等部门深度对接，全面梳理经销商融资难、融资贵等突出问题。业务推进过程 中，该行创建"专属沟通群+实时对接+快速响应+闭环推进"工作机制，高效破解沟通壁垒与技术适配难 题，以专业高效的服务保障业务如期投产，生动践行了中信银行"以客户为中心"的服务理念，用实际行 动诠释了金融国企的社会责任。 来源：环球网 近日，中信银行郑州分行"心连心化肥场景贷"业务落地，该业务以场景化金融创新为农业产业链发展注 入金融"活水"，彰显了该行服务实体经济、做好普惠金融大文章的责任担当。 心连心集团作为农业领域的"国家队"、国家级"绿色工厂"，既是保障国家粮食安全的核心力量，也是推 动化肥行业科技升级、绿色转型的领军企业，其上下游经销商的资金周转效率直接关系到农业生产物资 供应稳定性。 据悉，"心连心化肥场景贷"的成功上线有效缓解了心连心集团经销商融资难题，降低了融资成本，为其 备肥备货、扩大经营提供了坚实资金支持，间接保障了农业生产物资稳定供应。 中信银行郑州分行在重点产业集群中深耕细作，从"产品驱动"升级为"场景化生 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

12月30日，红四方涨1.22%，截至发稿，报29.89元/股，成交2901.06万元，换手率1.51%，总市值77.71 亿元。 富国中证农业主题ETF（159825）基金经理为张圣贤。 截至发稿，张圣贤累计任职时间10年212天，现任基金资产总规模247.06亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 107.2%， 任职期间最差基金回报-89.6%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司位于安徽省合肥市包河区宿松路与广福路交口信达中心A 座，成立日期2012年3月26日，上市日期2024年11月26日，公司主营业务涉及复合肥和氮肥产品的研 发、生产、销售和服务。主营业务收入构成为：复合肥产品92.93%，氮肥产品5.07%，硫酸钾产品 1.22%，其他(补充)0.79%。 从红四方十大流通股东角度 数据显示，富国基金旗下1只基金位居红四方十大流通股东。富国中证农业主题ETF（159825）三季度 新进十大流通股 ...

复合肥企业包括生产型和营销型两大类，2020年以来，复合肥产业链宽幅震荡后回归理性，行业竞争加 剧，两大类企业围绕成本、产品、品牌和渠道等全方位的角逐已成常态，头部企业竞争优势愈发突出。 （1）新洋丰：复合肥年产能798万吨、磷酸一铵年产能185万吨，公司复合肥产销量连续多年位居国内 第一，磷矿石、硫酸、合成氨等配套日臻完善。（2）云图控股：复合肥年产能745万吨、磷酸一铵年产 能43万吨，着力打造"盐—碱—肥"氮肥产业链和磷酸分级利用产业链。（3）史丹利：复合肥年产能590 万吨，磷酸一铵年产能110万吨，"品牌+渠道+产品+服务"综合经营模式，随着河北承德和湖北松滋磷 化工项目进入使用状态，公司实现了磷肥原料的部分自供。2022年以来，龙头企业存货及应收账款周转 速度稳健，经营现金呈持续净流入，现金分红比例稳中有升。 复合肥：行业供需向好，看好龙头企业量利修复、分红提升 复合肥上游为氮肥、磷肥、钾肥等单质肥，下游对接农业生产。（1）需求端：据国家统计局数据， 2000-2023年国内农用复合肥施用折纯量自918万吨增长至2,401万吨，CAGR达到4.3%，增速显著高于氮 肥、磷肥以及农用化肥总施用量；2 ...

煤化板块研发报告 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 二、供应分析—2026 | | 年新增投产压力进一步加大 8 | | 三、需求分析—需求增速进一步放缓，出口成为关键变量 | | 19 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 35 | | 免责声明 | | 37 | 尿素半年报 2025 年 12 月 30 新增投产压力加大，出口政策影响市场节奏 第一部分 前言概要 【综合分析】 2026 年基本面展望，供应端，2026 年尿素新增产能依旧加速释放，总 体来看，预计 2026 年仍有超过 650 万吨左右的新增产能将陆续投放，预计 到 2026 年年底，国内尿素总产能预计增加至 8700 万吨，产能增速约 6.7% 左右，届时日均产量将突破 22.5 万吨，有望在年底前达到 23 万吨的历史新 高。 需求端来看，农业需求集中爆发预计在春节后上半年之前，届时东北春 耕大规模生产，中原苏皖地区高氮肥生产，需求达到年内高点。农业需求整 体平稳，工业需 ...

从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，中邮基金旗下1只基金重仓云天化。中邮中证500指数增强A（590007）三季度持有股数2.41 万股，占基金净值比例为1.5%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约7953元。 资料显示，云南云天化股份有限公司位于云南省昆明市滇池路1417号，成立日期1997年7月2日，上市日 期1997年7月9日，公司主营业务涉及化肥、磷矿采选、有机化工等。主营业务收入构成为：磷肥 27.99%，商品粮食19.87%，复合(混)肥12.51%，尿素10.28%，商贸化肥10.03%，其他5.25%，饲料级磷 酸钙盐4.14%，聚甲醛2.38%，其他商贸物流2.35%，磷矿石1.17%，液氨0.91%，黄磷0.89%，其他(补 充)0.89%，煤炭0.53%，磷酸0.44%，季戊四醇0.38%。 12月30日，云天化涨1.01%，截至发稿，报32.91元/股，成交3.77亿元，换手率0.64%，总市值599.95亿 元。 中邮中证500指数增强A（590007）基金经理为王高。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1700 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 4241 手至 16.03 万手，空头持仓减少 2631 手至 18.53 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 70 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比- ...

分红方面，司尔特A股上市后累计派现14.59亿元。近三年，累计派现5.29亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，司尔特十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流通 股东，持股789.54万股，相比上期增加2.85万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融券方面，司尔特12月29日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元； 融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，安徽省司尔特肥业股份有限公司位于安徽省宁国经济技术开发区汪溪园区，成立日期1997年 11月5日，上市日期2011年1月18日，公司主营业务涉及各类磷复肥、专用测土配方肥、生态肥料及新型 肥料等肥料的研发、生产、销售与服务。主营业务收入构成为：三元复合肥51.84%，磷酸一铵 30.78%，矿资源类11.52%，其他及副产品5.58%，医疗服务0.28%。 截至9月30日，司尔特股东户数4.10万，较上期减少8.55%；人均流通股20837股，较上期增加9.36%。 2025年1月-9月，司尔特实现营业收入32.25亿元，同比增长5.27%；归母净利润1.55亿元， ...