Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Philip Morris International's (PMI) Q1 2025 results indicates significant growth potential for the heated tobacco product (HNB) market, which is relevant for Smoore International as a key supplier in this sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Smoore International's stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 13 HKD with a transaction volume of 73.1681 million HKD [1] - PMI's Smoke-Free Products (SFP) revenue increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 33.1% and a gross margin exceeding 70%, up by 6.7 percentage points [1] - The shipment volume for PMI's products grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with HNB, oral tobacco, and e-cigarettes increasing by 12%, 27%, and 107% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The international tobacco giants are advancing their smoke-free strategies, with PMI's Q1 performance aligning with expectations for HNB growth, particularly in the U.S. market [2] - The HNB market has substantial growth potential, with regulatory advantages over vaping products, including lower appeal to youth and easier harm reduction validation [2] - The competitive landscape for HNB is favorable due to fewer participating manufacturers, and British American Tobacco's new Glo Hilo product shows significant improvements in performance and user experience compared to both leading products and previous generations [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 15 周） 优于大市 美国对等关税对轻工行业的影响梳理 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期美国"对等关税"政策反复，外销链出现大 幅回调。当前政策仍有博弈空间，考虑到轻工业海外其他地区的产能承接与 替代性较低、美国制造业回流难度较大与关税压力存在转移手段，具备美国 本土产能或品类加价倍率高的代工企业预计短期更安全。 美国"对等关税"政策反复扰动出口市场。4 月 3 日，美国宣布对所有进口 商品普遍性加征 10%"最低基准关税"，同时对与其贸易逆差较大的经济体 征收额外对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、日本 24%、欧盟 20%，符合美墨加贸易协定的商 品免征关税。4 月 9 日，美国进一步宣布继续对我国产品加税至 125%，同时 对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓。本次美国对全球征税范围广、 幅度大，超出市场预期，高税额地区主要为我国与我国转口贸易地东南亚， 目前政策尚有博弈空间，若政策落地无论是国内直接出口或是转口贸易预计 均将受到较大冲击。 轻工外销公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, particularly those driven by domestic demand, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Sophia, and others [2] - Recent buyback announcements from companies like Yutong Technology and Simoer International reflect confidence in their growth prospects, suggesting opportunities for investment in oversold stocks [2] - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in the IP licensing space, particularly in the IP toy industry, as they scale up and improve their product offerings [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.84% compared to a 2.87% drop in the CSI 300 index [16] - Sub-sectors such as home goods, paper, and entertainment products also showed significant declines [16] Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales and construction, with a 1-2 month drop of 17.8% in residential completion and a 3.4% decrease in sales [35] - Companies like Oppein Home and others are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of improving industry dynamics [5] Paper and Packaging - Paper prices have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5387.5 CNY/ton, down 37.5 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased slightly [5] - The report indicates a 1.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the paper industry in the first two months of the year [70] Consumer Goods - The report suggests a focus on cultural and creative product leaders like Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from a recovering domestic consumption environment [5] - Companies in the personal care sector are also recommended for their channel expansion and price increases [7] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, noting that some countries have received a 90-day delay on tariffs, which benefits companies with established overseas production [7] - Companies like Zhejiang Natural and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the export chain [7] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions Simoer International's stock buyback as a sign of confidence amid regulatory changes in the e-cigarette market [7] - The focus on compliance and harm reduction in the tobacco industry is emphasized as a growing trend [7] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with a 5.72% decline in the index [25] - Companies like Hailan Home and others are recommended as potential investments due to their brand strength [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, particularly in the home furnishing sector, with a potential turning point in the fundamentals [2] - It emphasizes the benefits of policy support and high-growth segments, recommending companies with strong product upgrades and e-commerce channels [2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lens industry that possess core R&D capabilities and strong brand development [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a recovery in the home furnishing sector driven by increased transactions in the second-hand housing market and improved consumer confidence, predicting better performance during the 315 promotional event compared to last year [8] - Key companies to watch include custom furniture leaders such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Kuka [8] Paper and Packaging - As of March 14, 2025, prices for various paper products remained stable, with double glue paper at 5450 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, and box board paper at 3639.2 CNY/ton, which saw a decrease of 47.2 CNY/ton [8] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [8] Light Industry Consumption - The report mentions Meta's collaboration with Ray-Ban to launch limited edition AI glasses, which could drive demand for smart eyewear [8] - It also highlights the recovery of domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on cultural and creative leaders like Morning Glory and oral care leader Dengkang [8] Export Chain - The report discusses recent policy changes in Guangdong aimed at supporting cross-border e-commerce, which could enhance profitability for companies in this sector [8] - Companies to watch include Zhejiang Natural and Hars, which are expected to benefit from these developments [8] New Tobacco Products - The report notes trends in electronic cigarette regulation in the U.S., suggesting that compliance and harm reduction will be key focuses [8] - It recommends companies like Smoore International, which have strong partnerships and product advantages in the new tobacco sector [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta benefiting from supportive policies [8] - The report highlights the growth of the outdoor economy, recommending companies like Zhejiang Natural and Mugaodi [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has recently achieved a Class II medical device certification for its skincare brand MOYAL, with expectations of generating a revenue of 150 million yuan in 2025 and surpassing 1 billion yuan in revenue within three years [1] - The shift towards new tobacco products is compelling leading companies to accelerate their transformation, with a projected 8.4% decline in traditional cigarette sales in the U.S. in 2024 [2] - The U.S. is expected to become a core market for heated non-combustible tobacco (HNB) products, with an estimated annual consumption of 800-900 billion pods by 2030 [3] - The company is positioned as a key supplier in the compliant market, with expectations of revenue recovery in its disposable products despite regulatory pressures [4] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 1.342 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.551 billion yuan by 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49.8X and 30.5X respectively [5] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company launched a new factory for MOYAL's medical device production, aiming for significant revenue growth in the coming years [1] Market Trends - The new tobacco landscape is reshaping consumer habits, leading to a decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increased focus on HNB product development [2][3] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue and profitability, with projected net profits showing a significant increase from 1.342 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.551 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Operational Insights - The company is adapting to regulatory changes and market demands, positioning itself as a core supplier in the compliant market while navigating challenges in disposable product revenues [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Insights - Japan Tobacco's PloomX revenue increased by 44% year-on-year, continuing to expand in global markets [1] - Japan Tobacco's total revenue reached 3.15 trillion yen, a 10.9% increase year-on-year, while operating profit grew by 3.7% to 697.2 billion yen [1] - Altria's NJOY brand saw significant growth, with consumable shipments increasing by 102.61% and device shipments by 284.62% in 2024 [5] - Altria's overall net revenue for 2024 was $24.018 billion, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2023, but diluted EPS rose by 3.4% to $5.12 [4] Summary by Sections Japan Tobacco - The harm reduction product segment achieved revenue of 98.9 billion yen, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 24.2% [2] - The traditional tobacco segment saw sales of 541.9 billion sticks, a 2% increase, although traditional tobacco sales in Japan declined by 5.3% [3] Altria - NJOY's consumable shipments reached 46.6 million units, with device shipments at 5 million units, both showing substantial year-on-year growth [5] - Altria expects EPS for 2025 to be between $5.22 and $5.37, indicating a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5% [6] - The company plans to repurchase an additional $1 billion in shares in 2025, building on a previously completed $3.4 billion buyback program [6] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on Smoore International and monitoring companies in the vaping supply chain and tobacco supply chain [6]