Core Viewpoint - The recent commitment from both China and the U.S. to take measures by May 14, 2025, to modify or cancel tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures has eased concerns over escalating trade tensions, leading to a slight rebound in aluminum prices due to improved demand expectations [1] Industry Summary - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points week-on-week to 61.9%, with a mixed performance across different sectors [1] - The operating rate for aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.2%, attributed to a lack of new orders [1] - The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, driven by the commencement of power transmission and transformation orders and the execution of previous orders [1] - The operating rate for national profiles slightly decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%, with some enterprises reporting a minor decline in operations [1] - Some photovoltaic sample enterprises maintained high operating rates, while others reported a decline in photovoltaic output to address weakening future demand [1] - Construction material enterprises reported weak order growth, focusing on maintaining current production levels [1] Inventory and Price Outlook - As of May 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous Thursday and a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous Tuesday [1] - It is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventory may break below the 600,000-ton mark this week [1] - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to support prices, but there remains pressure above key price levels, with expectations of price fluctuations within a range as consumption enters a low season and inventory pressures accumulate [1] - The industry outlook suggests a focus on macroeconomic sentiment and downstream operating rates in the short term, with attention to potential risks from macro expectations, geopolitical developments, mining recovery, and consumption release [1]

| | 变量名称 | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 19585 | 19510 | 19910 | 75.00 | | | 沪铝期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 115651 | 267563 | 127011 | -151, 912. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 181738 | 192705 | 183869 | -10, 967. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 65013 | 66106 | 68563 | -1, 093. 00 | | | 沪铝基差 | SMM A00电解铝半均价 | 19610 | 19620 | 20060 | -10.00 \ | | | (现货与期货) | 沪铝基差 | 25 | 110 | 150 | -85.00 | | | | 沪铝近月-沪铝连一 | 70 | 140 | 65 | -70.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪铝连一-沪铝连二 | 85 | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Century Aluminum generated $78 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025, a modest decrease from Q4 2024 primarily due to polar vortex-related weather conditions impacting energy prices and one-time alumina costs [20][24] - Net sales for the quarter were $634 million, reflecting a $3 million increase due to higher metal volume and all-in metal pricing, partially offset by lower third-party alumina sales [22] - Net income was reported at $30 million or $0.29 per share, with adjusted net income at $37 million or $0.36 per share [22] - Liquidity increased to $339 million, up nearly $100 million quarter over quarter, and net debt declined by $55 million to $442 million [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter shipments rose slightly to nearly 169,000 tonnes, an increase of 1% sequentially, with all smelters operating at targeted utilization levels [21] - Jamalco produced its highest quarterly volume in Q1 since acquisition in 2023, while Grundartangi returned to full production levels in March [21][14] - Billet orders from Grundartangi were lower than anticipated in Q1 due to demand weakness in the European market, but a small uptick was noted as Q2 began [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Realized LME prices averaged $2,553 per ton in Q1, up $91 per ton from the prior quarter, while the Midwest premium averaged $6.00 per ton, up $165 per ton [25] - Global market is expected to face a deficit of approximately 400,000 tonnes in 2025 as China reaches its production cap, with global inventories at new lows of only 46 days [11] - U.S. shipments increased by 6.7% year over year in March as downstream customers shifted supply chains back to the U.S. [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving lower production costs through capital improvement programs, particularly at the Jamalco facility, which aims to return to nameplate capacity of close to 1,400,000 tonnes [17][21] - The new smelter project is expected to double the size of the existing U.S. aluminum industry, creating over 1,000 full-time jobs and 5,500 construction jobs [38] - Management emphasized the importance of the Section 232 tariffs in stabilizing the U.S. aluminum market and supporting domestic production [35][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for aluminum, particularly in the U.S., despite some weakness in Europe [62] - The company expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $90 million, with anticipated benefits from lagged pricing and reduced energy costs [30] - Management remains cautious about market volatility but believes that aluminum prices will continue to rise in the near to medium future [66] Other Important Information - The company is on track to complete a major capital improvement project at Jamalco by year-end, which will enhance self-sufficiency in power generation [17] - A one-time increase in maintenance spending of about $10 million is expected in Q2 due to planned maintenance at the Sebree facility [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation on one-time OpEx cost in Q2 - Management confirmed that the incremental OpEx cost of $10 million to $15 million in Q2 is a one-time expense [40] Question: Clarification on alumina costs - Management explained that higher alumina costs were also one-time due to timing of vessel sales, with no expected benefits in Q2 [42] Question: Update on Jamalco operations and cost improvements - Management indicated that Jamalco is operating well and is expected to improve further with the introduction of a new steam generation turbine [54] Question: Expectations on aluminum market and inventory replenishment - Management projected that global inventories will continue to decrease, supporting higher aluminum prices in the future [66] Question: Key milestones for the new aluminum smelter project - Management highlighted that finalizing power arrangements and site selection are the next key milestones before significant capital expenditure begins [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Century Aluminum generated $78 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025, a modest decrease from Q4 2024 primarily due to polar vortex-related weather conditions impacting energy prices and one-time alumina costs [21][22] - Net sales for the quarter were $634 million, reflecting a $3 million increase due to higher metal volume and all-in metal pricing, partially offset by lower third-party alumina sales [23] - Net income was reported at $30 million or $0.29 per share, with adjusted net income at $37 million or $0.36 per share [23][24] - Liquidity increased to $339 million, up nearly $100 million quarter over quarter, and net debt declined by $55 million to $442 million [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter shipments rose slightly to nearly 169,000 tonnes, an increase of 1% sequentially, with all smelters operating at targeted utilization levels by quarter end [22] - Jamalco produced its highest quarterly volume in Q1 since acquisition in 2023, while Grundartangi returned to full production levels in March [22][14] - Billet orders from Grundartangi were lower than anticipated in Q1 due to demand weakness in the European market, but a small uptick was noted entering Q2 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Realized LME prices averaged $2,553 per ton in Q1, up $91 per ton from the prior quarter, while the Midwest premium averaged $6.00 per ton, up $165 per ton [26] - Global market is expected to face a deficit of approximately 400,000 tonnes in 2025 as China reaches its production cap [10] - U.S. energy prices have eased since the polar vortex conditions in Q1, with Midwest Indiana hub prices down approximately 15% compared to the last quarter [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving lower production costs through capital improvement programs, particularly at the Jamalco facility [22][18] - Century Aluminum is committed to building a new smelter project, which will be the first new smelter built in the U.S. in fifty years, aiming to double the size of the existing U.S. industry [37] - The company is actively working to secure supply chains in response to recent tariff implementations, aiming to mitigate cost increases [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for aluminum, particularly in the U.S., as customers are nearshoring their supply chains [61] - The company anticipates continued support for higher aluminum prices due to low global inventories and ongoing demand growth [11] - Management remains cautious about market volatility but expects a small deficit in the aluminum market this year, with prices likely to rise in the near to medium future [62][65] Other Important Information - The company plans to complete a major capital improvement program at Jamalco by year-end, which will enhance power generation and lower production costs [18] - A one-time increase in maintenance spending of about $10 million is expected in Q2 due to planned outages at the Sebree facility [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation on the one-time OpEx cost of $10 million to $15 million in Q2 - Management confirmed that this cost is indeed one-time and should reverse in Q3 [40][41] Question: Clarification on alumina costs being one-time - Management explained that the higher alumina costs were related to timing of vessel sales, with a high-priced vessel sold in Q1 and lower prices expected in Q2 [42] Question: Update on manufacturing credit receivable - Management expects to receive about $60 million of the FY '23 amount in Q2, with the remaining $20 million expected later this year or early next year [44][45] Question: Confirmation on debt reduction as a priority for excess cash - Management confirmed that reducing debt remains the top use of excess cash while continuing existing CapEx programs [50] Question: Update on operations at Jamalco - Management reported that Jamalco is operating well, with plans to introduce a steam generation turbine by year-end to reduce third-party power purchases [53] Question: Expectations on aluminum market and inventory replenishment - Management indicated that they do not foresee a replenishment of inventories and expect aluminum prices to continue rising [65] Question: Key milestones for the new aluminum smelter project - Management highlighted that finalizing power arrangements and site selection are the next key milestones, with significant CapEx expected in 2026 [74]

Financial Performance & Liquidity - Century Aluminum reported Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $78 million, compared to $81 million in Q4 2024[9] - Net debt decreased to $442 million in Q1 2025 from $497 million in Q4 2024[9, 31] - The company has robust liquidity of $339 million, including $45 million in cash and $294 million in credit facility availability[9, 31] - Q1 2025 net income was $30 million, or $0.29 earnings per share, compared to $45 million, or $0.44 earnings per share in Q4 2024[31] - Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $80 million and $90 million[37] Operational Highlights - Shipments increased slightly from 166,677 tonnes in Q4 2024 to 168,672 tonnes in Q1 2025[31] - Jamalco refinery achieved its highest quarterly production volume since acquisition, with a continued focus on cost improvements[9] - Grundartangi returned to full production levels in March following a minor power curtailment[9] - Mt Holly experienced emergency energy charges due to a polar vortex impact in South Carolina[9] Market Conditions & Outlook - Global aluminum inventory levels have fallen to only 46 days of consumption[9] - Energy prices increased in Q1 2025 due to the polar vortex in the U S, but Q2 Indy Hub prices are approximately 15% lower quarter-to-date[9] - The company expects to realize a higher Midwest Premium (MWP) moving forward, partially benefiting from the increased Section 232 tariff in Q1[9]

Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company reported a net income attributable to stockholders of $29.7 million for Q1 2025, a decrease of $15.5 million from Q4 2024, primarily due to higher input costs and losses on derivative instruments [4][8] - Adjusted net income for the same period was $36.6 million, down $6.9 million sequentially, influenced by exceptional items including emergency energy charges and unrealized losses on derivatives [4][8] - The company expects Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $80 to $90 million, driven by increased regional premiums and lower energy costs [6] Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $633.9 million, an increase of $3.0 million from Q4 2024, attributed to higher LME aluminum prices and favorable volume and mix [3][8] - Aluminum shipments increased by 1% sequentially to 168,672 tonnes [8] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $78.0 million, a decrease of $2.9 million from the previous quarter, mainly due to higher energy prices and raw material costs [5][8] Operational Highlights - The Midwest premium realized was $602, reflecting a 38% increase from the prior quarter [8] - The company recorded a positive impact of $16.2 million from the increase in Section 232 aluminum tariffs to 25% [8] - Century Aluminum's liquidity position as of March 31, 2025, was $339.1 million, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $44.9 million and $294.2 million in borrowing availability [5][8] Strategic Developments - A new five-year labor contract was approved for the Grundartangi smelter [8] - The power purchase agreement with ON Power, the largest power provider in Iceland, was extended through Q1 2032 [8]

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Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility, with the S&P 500 declining 0.8% in April, marking its third consecutive monthly drop, while GDP shrank 0.3%, the first decline since early 2022. However, strong consumer spending and a stable job market indicate underlying confidence in the economy [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - In uncertain market conditions, a relative price strength strategy can help investors identify stocks that outperform their peers, thus staying aligned with market momentum [2]. - Stocks that show better performance than their industry or benchmark should be included in investment portfolios, as they are more likely to yield significant returns [4]. - It is essential to assess whether a stock has upside potential, particularly those that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 1 to 3 months and possess solid fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Screening Parameters - The screening criteria for identifying potential stocks include positive relative price changes over 12 weeks, 4 weeks, and 1 week, as well as positive current-quarter estimate revisions [7]. - Stocks must have a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), a current price of at least $5, and an average 20-day trading volume of at least 50,000 to ensure adequate liquidity [8]. Group 3: Featured Stocks - **Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)**: Expected earnings growth of 66.1% for 2025, with a market cap of $1.1 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has increased by 35.4% over the past 30 days, although shares have decreased by 29.3% in the past year [10][11]. - **Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)**: Anticipated earnings growth of 30.7% for 2025, with shares rising 131.9% in the past year. The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of approximately 16.5% [12][13]. - **BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)**: Projected EPS growth rate of 23.2% year-over-year for 2025, with a favorable expected growth rate of 24.7% over the next three to five years compared to the industry average of 13.8%. Shares have gained 7% in the past year [14][15]. - **ODDITY Tech Ltd. (ODD)**: Expected earnings growth of 3.1% for 2025, with shares increasing by 95.8% in the past year. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of about 32.8% [16][17].

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Constellium (CSTM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 30, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Jason Hershiser - Director of Investor RelationsJean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive OfficerJack Guo - SVP & CFO Conference Call Participants Katja Jancic - AnalystCorinne Blanchard - AnalystBill Peterson - AnalystJosh Sullivan - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst Operator Good morning or good afternoon, all, and welcome to the Constellium First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your ...