Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved operating income of $1.5 billion and net income of $1.2 billion, equating to $7.99 per diluted share [16] - Cash flow from operations was $1.4 billion, with liquidity remaining strong at over $2.2 billion [17][21] - For Q4 2025, net income was $266 million, or $1.82 per diluted share, with revenue at $4.4 billion [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations generated operating income of $1.4 billion in 2025, down from $1.6 billion in the prior year, despite record steel shipments of 13.7 million tons [17][18] - The mills recycling operations saw operating income of $97 million, nearly 30% higher than 2024, while Q4 income declined due to lower pricing [18][25] - Steel fabrication platform earnings were $407 million for the year, lower than the previous year, but Q4 operating income was $91 million, indicating a solid demand for steel joists and deck [19][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic steel industry operated at a production utilization rate of 77%, while the company's mills operated at 86%, showcasing a competitive advantage [26] - Long-product steel markets remained strong throughout 2025, with expectations for continued demand and pricing stability [28] - The automotive production estimates for 2026 are expected to remain similar to 2025, with dealer inventories declining further [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on strategic organic investments in steel and aluminum products, aiming for differentiated product offerings and value creation for stakeholders [8][9] - The proposed acquisition of BlueScope is seen as a strategic move to unlock value in North American assets, despite the rejection of the offer by BlueScope's board [9][10] - The company emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation strategy, prioritizing high-return growth and maintaining investment-grade credit metrics [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the demand for diversified value-added steel products, supported by ongoing infrastructure spending and manufacturing onshoring [28] - The aluminum segment is expected to grow significantly, with a domestic supply deficit forecasted to increase, providing opportunities for the company [30] - The company remains committed to achieving a zero-incident safety environment and continues to prioritize safety culture [6] Other Important Information - The company issued $800 million in investment-grade unsecured notes to redeem existing notes and for general corporate purposes [22] - Capital investments for 2026 are projected to be around $600 million, with a focus on maintaining strong cash flow generation [22][23] - The company repurchased $900 million of common stock in 2025, reflecting confidence in future growth [22] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Update on aluminum rolling mill utilization - The aluminum rolling mill is expected to reach 90% utilization by the end of 2026, with positive EBITDA anticipated to continue through the year [39][40] Question: Investment capacity and balance sheet comfort level - The company maintains a balance sheet with considerable capacity, aiming to remain under a 2x net leverage ratio while improving structural EBITDA [41][42] Question: Status of the four value-add lines and Sinton - The four value-add lines are operating well, and Sinton is expected to converge with other facilities in terms of operational capability [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum is set to acquire a 40% stake in a new U.S. smelter being developed by Emirates Global Aluminium, marking the first primary aluminum plant in the U.S. in nearly 50 years [1] Group 1 - The planned smelter represents a significant development in the U.S. aluminum industry, which has not seen new primary production facilities for almost five decades [1] - This partnership indicates a strategic move by Century Aluminum to expand its footprint in the North American market [1] - Emirates Global Aluminium is leading the initiative, highlighting its commitment to investing in U.S. manufacturing capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminum Company have formed a joint development agreement to construct the first new primary aluminum production plant in the U.S. since 1980, which will significantly increase domestic aluminum production and create thousands of jobs [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The new aluminum plant will be located in Inola, Oklahoma, and is expected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminum annually, more than doubling current U.S. production levels [1][3]. - EGA will hold a 60% stake in the joint venture, while Century Aluminum will own the remaining 40% [1]. - The construction of the plant is anticipated to create 1,000 permanent jobs and 4,000 jobs during the construction phase [1]. Group 2: Technological and Operational Aspects - The project will utilize EGA's state-of-the-art EX technology, which is the most advanced aluminum smelting technology ever installed in the U.S. [2]. - The partnership combines EGA's expertise in aluminum smelting design and technology with Century's operational experience in the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The Inola plant will be the largest primary aluminum production facility in the U.S. and aims to reduce the current reliance on aluminum imports, which currently meet about 85% of American industries' needs [3]. - The establishment of the plant is expected to drive the development of a regional aluminum-focused industrial hub in Oklahoma, creating additional jobs and economic opportunities in both upstream and downstream aluminum manufacturing [5]. Group 4: Leadership Statements - EGA's CEO emphasized the importance of this project for the future of American industry and the revitalization of U.S. aluminum production [4]. - Century Aluminum's CEO highlighted the project's alignment with national interests, particularly in key industries such as automotive, aerospace, and national defense, which will benefit from increased domestic aluminum production [4].

Summary of J.P. Morgan North America Metals & Mining 2026 Buy-Side Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the Metals & Mining (M&M) sector, with insights into investor sentiment for 2026 based on responses from 25 investors, divided into 72% Long Onlys (LOs) and 28% Hedge Funds (HFs) [1][12]. Key Findings Sector Rankings - **Copper** is the top-ranked sub-sector for 2026, followed by **Gold**. **Steel** has dropped significantly from 2nd to 7th place [1]. - **Copper** is also the top-ranked commodity, while **Rare Earths** and **Steel** have both seen a decline in their rankings [1]. - **Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)** is identified as the top long investment due to its strong correlation with copper prices (~95%) and exposure to gold pricing [1][6]. - **Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)** is viewed as the top short investment due to high debt levels and tariff challenges [1][6]. Investor Sentiment - 72% of investors expect the M&M sector to outperform the broader market in 2026, a significant increase from 41% in the previous survey [1][12]. - The primary themes influencing sector performance are **trade policy and protectionism**, and **onshoring and supply security** [1][16]. Tariff Expectations - 78% of participants anticipate some form of **S232 tariff relief** in 2026, with 72% expecting partial relief [1][19]. - 61% expect exemptions for Mexico and Canada, while 39% foresee country-specific exemptions [1][19]. M&A Activity - A significant 84% of participants expect an increase in M&A activity within the M&M sector in 2026, up from 50% in the prior survey [1][80]. Commodity and Stock Preferences Copper - FCX is again ranked as the best-performing copper stock, with 83% of participants favoring it [1][64]. - Concerns about potential near-term corrections in copper prices were noted, alongside positive sentiment regarding the restart of Grasberg's operations [1][6]. Steel - Investor sentiment towards steel has weakened, with CMC emerging as the best-performing steel stock due to its high-margin precast business and favorable trade policies [1][60]. Aluminum - **Alcoa (AA)** is expected to be the best-performing aluminum stock, with 63% of votes, followed by downstream players CSTM and KALU [1][71]. Rare Earths and Uranium - **MP Materials (MP)** is viewed as the best-performing stock in the rare earths/lithium/uranium sector, receiving 56% of the votes [1][76]. Underappreciated Themes - Several themes were identified as potentially underappreciated, including: - Valuations relative to the AI ecosystem - Copper demand related to power sectors - Supply and demand dynamics in uranium [1][84]. Conclusion - The survey indicates a bullish outlook for the M&M sector in 2026, driven by strong expectations for copper and gold, alongside anticipated tariff relief and increased M&A activity. Investors are advised to consider these dynamics when making investment decisions in the sector [1][12][80].

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (January 2026) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption data for the week of January 15th to 21st, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 858,000 tons (kt), unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 330,000 kt, -4% WoW, +9% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum production: 3.4 million tons (mnt), +2.8% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 1.4 mnt, +6.1% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 1,201 kt as of January 22, 2026, +2% WoW, +29% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Social Inventory**: 998 kt, +4% WoW, +48% YoY, and +64% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Producers' Inventory**: 203 kt, -3% WoW, -20% YoY, and +25% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 848 kt, +1% WoW, +58% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 353 kt, +5% WoW, -10% YoY, and +57% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 841 kt, +6% WoW, +21% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 871 kt, +3% WoW, +4% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 300 kt, +2% WoW, +84% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 3.2 mnt, -1.1% YoY - Aluminum ingot: -3.6% YoY - Aluminum billet: +16.0% YoY [4] Takeaways - The increase in aluminum ingot and billet inventory is indicative of overall aluminum demand trends, suggesting a cautious market expectation for demand recovery [5] - The apparent consumption levels during the week were higher than the same period in 2024-25 on the lunar calendar, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory data in assessing overall aluminum demand, as it reflects changes across various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in the sector pecking order, followed by copper, battery materials, gold, coal, cement, and steel [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corp. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations in both earnings per share and revenue, but the stock experienced a decline due to cautious near-term guidance [3][4]. Financial Performance - Alcoa achieved earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, surpassing estimates of 95 cents, and reported revenue of $3.45 billion, exceeding expectations of $3.28 billion [3]. - The company demonstrated significant improvements in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA rising sharply due to higher aluminum prices, better shipment mix, and effective cost management [6]. Stock Market Reaction - Despite the strong earnings report, Alcoa's stock dropped approximately 5% at market open following the earnings announcement, attributed to a sell-the-news reaction and cautious guidance regarding near-term earnings and free cash flow [4][9]. Operational Strength - Alcoa highlighted record production levels at several smelters and a key refinery, indicating that the strong results were driven by operational performance rather than one-time items [6]. - The company generated robust operating cash flow and free cash flow, enhancing its balance sheet and providing flexibility for growth projects and capital returns to shareholders [7]. Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence that favorable aluminum fundamentals, tariff-related pricing support, and ongoing productivity initiatives will sustain healthy margins into 2026, despite mixed alumina market conditions [8]. - The quarter reinforced the view that Alcoa is operating from a position of strength, moving beyond merely recovering from previous downturns [9].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation is a leading player in the aluminum industry, with a strong market position and positive financial performance indicators, despite facing slight revenue declines [1][6]. Financial Performance - Alcoa reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.45 billion, a decrease of 1.1% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.24 billion, resulting in a positive surprise of 6.34% [3][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 were $1.26, up from $1.04 the previous year, and significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.95, delivering a surprise of 32.63% [4][6]. - Alcoa's fourth-quarter profit increased to $226 million, compared to $202 million in the same period the previous year, driven by gains in alumina and aluminum sales [5][6]. Market Position and Ratings - B. Riley maintained a "Buy" rating for Alcoa and raised its price target from $44 to $78, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2][6]. - The current stock price of Alcoa is $63.14, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.14%, with a market capitalization of approximately $16.35 billion [5].

Company Overview - Century Aluminum Company is a leading producer of primary aluminum with significant manufacturing operations in the United States and Iceland, focusing on operational efficiency and product quality to maintain a competitive edge in the global aluminum industry [9][10] - The company generates revenue primarily through the manufacture and sale of aluminum products to industrial and commercial customers, with a total revenue of $2.53 billion over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [5][9] Recent Developments - On January 22, Glencore disclosed a purchase of 13,454,538 shares of Century Aluminum, with an estimated transaction value of $420.38 million based on quarterly average pricing [2][3] - Following this acquisition, Glencore's position in Century Aluminum rose to 53,511,894 shares valued at $2.10 billion, accounting for 48.39% of Glencore's reportable assets under management [4][7] Financial Performance - Century Aluminum reported $632.2 million in revenue for its latest quarter, returning to profitability with a net income of $14.9 million compared to a loss of $4.6 million in the previous quarter [12] - The company's adjusted EBITDA increased to $101.1 million, driven by higher Midwest aluminum premiums and improved power economics, with management guiding for fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $170 million to $180 million [12] Market Position - As of January 21, Century Aluminum shares were priced at $47.75, reflecting a 133.7% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points [4] - The market capitalization of Century Aluminum stands at $4.46 billion, indicating a strong market presence [5]

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