每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

投资建议：结构分化，重视成长。 大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒周期寻底，配置价值凸显。 白酒：分化加剧，更加理性。 25Q2 产业景气度仍在寻底，头部公司淡季韧性凸显。 与 2012-14 年的 行业调整期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整烈度相对较小、但调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整 呈 V 型，行业出清速度快；本轮调整更像 U 型，调整幅度相对较小，目前仍在筑底阶段。 我们认为 短 期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒有望修复，饮料结构繁荣。 啤酒旺季将至、经营环比改善； 饮料仍处于单品势能释放 阶段。 | 本文摘自：2025年6月1日发布的 换季消费及成长——食品饮料2025年中期策略 | | --- | | 訾 猛 ，资格证书编号： S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040022 | | 徐 洋 ，资格证书编 号： S0880520120008 | | 姚世佳 ，资格证书编号： S0880520070001 | | 李 耀 ，资格证书编号： S0880520090 001 | | 程碧升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods industry is entering a new cycle, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Haitian Flavor Industry expected to see a revaluation of their stock prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Company Performance - Four years ago, the consumer goods sector experienced a significant bull market, led by Kweichow Moutai, with many leading companies reaching new stock price highs [3]. - Haitian Flavor Industry, known as "Soy Sauce Moutai," saw its market capitalization peak at 700 billion yuan [3]. - Following a period of high valuation, Kweichow Moutai began to digest its valuation, leading to a decline in stock prices for other consumer "Moutai" companies, including Haitian Flavor Industry, which experienced a drop of over 70% from its historical high, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding 510 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Recovery and Financial Performance - Despite facing challenges, including an additive controversy, Haitian Flavor Industry initiated a stock buyback in October 2023 to stabilize its stock price [5]. - The company's financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with 2024 revenue reported at 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and net profit at 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Haitian Flavor Industry achieved revenue of 8.315 billion yuan, a growth of 8.08%, and net profit of 2.202 billion yuan, an increase of 14.77% [7]. Group 3: Leadership and Strategic Initiatives - After a decline in performance, Haitian Flavor Industry appointed Cheng Xue as the new CEO in September 2024, marking a significant leadership change aimed at revitalizing the company [12]. - Cheng Xue is pushing for international expansion, with plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance the company's global brand image and competitiveness [13][14]. - The company has a diverse product matrix and aims to become a respected international food group, with ongoing efforts to certify health-oriented products for international markets [14]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - The decision to list in Hong Kong is seen as a strategic move to improve valuation and increase international visibility, especially as leading companies are increasingly opting for dual listings [15][21]. - The competitive landscape in the domestic seasoning market is intensifying, making international markets a crucial growth area for Haitian Flavor Industry [18]. - The company has a strong cash position, with a cash balance of 9.104 billion yuan as of March 31, 2025, and plans for significant cash dividends, indicating robust financial health [20][19].

2025年5月，松鲜鲜获全球领先的新经济产业第三方数据挖掘和分析机构iiMedia Reearch（艾媒咨询） 授予的"松茸调味料连续5年全国销量第一""松茸调味料连续5年全国销量领先""松茸酱油品类开创者"三 项市场地位确认。 当下，中国调味品市场在消费升级与健康需求的双重驱动下，正经历结构性变革。iiMedia Research （艾媒咨询）数据显示，2024年中国调味品整体市场规模达6871亿元，同比增长16.0%，其中2023-2025 年中国松茸调味料市场规模复合年均增长率达134.6%，预计2025年市场规模达15.47亿元。市场扩容的 背后是消费者对便捷性、口味稳定性与健康属性的多元追求。 党的十八大以来，健康中国建设上升为国家重要战略。《"健康中国2030"规划纲要》提出"三减三健"专 项行动，"减钠"成为改善全民健康的关键突破口。但中国居民日均钠摄入量远超世界卫生组织推荐值的 一倍多，隐形钠广泛存在于传统调味品及食品添加剂中，长期过量摄入易引发健康问题。如何通过技术 创新破解"高钠困局"，成为行业转型的关键。 成立于2020年的松鲜鲜积极响应国家号召，以产品革新应对"钠超标"挑战。近日，中国 ...

Core Insights - The trend of dual listings ("A+H") is gaining momentum, driven by multiple factors such as asset revaluation in China, improved liquidity in Hong Kong stocks, and companies expanding overseas [1][4] - The recent performance of companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine indicates a shift from discount to premium pricing in the Hong Kong market, reflecting increased investor confidence [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen significant activity, with CATL setting a record for the largest IPO in four years and Hengrui Medicine achieving the largest IPO in the pharmaceutical sector in five years [2] - CATL's share price was set at HKD 263, which was a 2.8% premium over its A-share average prior to the pricing date, attracting 15.17 times oversubscription from international investors [2] - Hengrui Medicine also experienced top-tier pricing and 17.09 times oversubscription, indicating strong demand from international funds [2] Group 2: Valuation Trends - Recent listings have shown that companies with core competitiveness are receiving higher valuation premiums in the Hong Kong market, breaking the historical discount trend between A and H shares [3] - The valuation gap between H shares and A shares is narrowing, suggesting a more optimistic and independent pricing approach for quality assets in the Hong Kong market [3][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a rich pipeline of IPO projects in Hong Kong, with 156 companies having submitted applications, including many A to H projects, indicating a growing trend of quality A-share companies seeking dual listings [4][6] - The influx of A to H companies is expected to enhance the market structure, particularly in new economy sectors, with the proportion of new economy companies in the Hong Kong market increasing significantly from 1.3% in 2018 to approximately 14% in April this year [7] - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is anticipated to continue, driven by the need for internationalization and enhanced global capital operations [5][6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of unique competitive advantages for companies to survive and thrive in a highly competitive market [15] - Companies must adapt their strategies according to different market stages: being pioneers in empty markets, disruptors when competitors emerge, and striving to be unique in saturated markets [1][3][4] - The article outlines three competitive battlefields: the initial stage focuses on resource competition, the advanced stage on efficiency, and the top stage on irreplaceability [7][8][11] Group 2 - In the initial battlefield, companies often rely on resources such as capital and materials, leading to fierce competition and declining profits [7] - As competition intensifies, companies shift to improving efficiency through process optimization and cost reduction, but this can also lead to profit dilution [8] - In the top battlefield, companies that offer irreplaceable products or services dominate the market, exemplified by Tesla's technology and Apple's ecosystem [11]

Market Performance - On May 29, A-shares saw a collective increase in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.37% [1] - The North Stock 50 index experienced a significant rise of 2.73% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was approximately 11,854.22 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,754.72 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Movement - Out of 4,472 stocks in the market, 4,472 stocks rose while 831 stocks fell, with 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 15 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors with notable gains included EDA, cross-border payment, unmanned vehicles, digital currency, financial technology, computer, biopharmaceuticals, chemical pharmaceuticals, complete automobiles, and electronic chemicals [1] - Sectors that experienced declines included gold, sugar substitutes/sweeteners, seasonings, leisure foods, precious metals, beauty care, food and beverages, and banking [1]

证券代码：603288 证券简称：海天味业 公告编号：2025-025 佛山市海天调味食品股份有限公司2024年年度 权益分派实施公告 A股每股现金红利0.86元 本次利润分配方案经公司2025年5月9日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 2.分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以下简 称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7号一一回购股份》等有关规定，公司存放于回购专用证券账户的股份不参与本次利润分配。 3.差异化分红送转方案： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 每股分配比例 (1)本次差异化分红方案 根据公司2024年年度股东大会审议通过的《公司2024年度利润分配方案》，公司以股权登记日总股本 5,560,600,544股扣除公司回购专用证券账户中的10,289,491股后，以参与权益分派的5,550,311,053股为基 ...

Group 1: Global Gold Consumption Insights - Global gold consumption is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2024, with significant structural changes, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting increased wealth accumulation and asset allocation awareness in emerging markets [1] - Amid rising economic uncertainty and persistent inflation, gold's safe-haven attributes are widely recognized, leading to increased investment demand from both central banks and individual investors [1] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a "global reserve asset alternative" due to rising risks in dollar assets and the trend of de-dollarization in the global monetary system [1] - The global gold supply remains stable, with a gold reserve-to-production ratio of 19.4 years in 2024, indicating no near-term depletion risk [1] - Gold production is projected at 3,661 tons in 2024, a 2% year-on-year increase, but the correlation between price and production is low, suggesting a moderate impact of supply on market prices [1] - While there is potential for gold price increases, short-term attention should be paid to Federal Reserve policy changes, geopolitical risks, and uncertainties in industrial gold demand [1] - Investors are advised to flexibly allocate gold ETFs and futures based on their risk preferences, while also considering quality gold mining companies and recycling leaders for long-term investment [1] Group 2: Chinese Optical Device Industry Analysis - Optical devices are essential components for high-speed optical communication, playing a critical role in key areas such as 5G, data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial internet [3] - The industry includes active devices (like lasers and photodetectors) and passive devices (like wavelength division multiplexers and fiber optic connectors), representing a core segment of advanced technology [3] - Silicon photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are reshaping the industry landscape, transitioning optical devices from "electronic assistance" to "optical-electrical integration" [3] - There is a rigid demand for high-speed optical communication driven by data center expansion, 5G/6G deployment, autonomous driving, and industrial internet, particularly in AI training clusters [3] - Although core materials and high-end chips are still partially reliant on imports, domestic leading companies are advancing self-replacement through technological breakthroughs and vertical integration [3] - The high-end market is still dominated by overseas giants, but Chinese companies have formed scale effects in the mid-to-low-end market through product optimization and channel expansion [3] Group 3: Dairy Industry Trends - The Chinese dairy industry is experiencing its first decline in both production and consumption in 2024, marking a shift from growth-driven to structural optimization [4] - Liquid milk production has decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with per capita dairy consumption dropping to 41.5 kg, about one-third of the global average [4] - Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming are facing revenue declines of 8%-10% in 2024, indicating industry-wide pressure and challenges in the traditional liquid milk-driven model [4] - Dairy companies can expand from liquid milk to various forms such as cheese, protein powder, and low-lactose products, tapping into multiple consumption scenarios [4] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry Outlook - The consumer goods industry in 2024 is characterized by "slow recovery and deep differentiation," with overall revenue declining by 2.47% and net profit down by 4.09% [4] - From a quarterly perspective, revenue and profit margins began to improve in Q4 2024, indicating initial signs of recovery amidst cyclical fluctuations [4] - Stable sales and profit recovery are led by top brands like Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Yanjing Beer, which possess dual advantages in branding and cost [4] - Despite unstable demand recovery and intense competition, leading companies maintain advantages through deep operations in branding, channels, and products [4] - The health supplement additives sector benefits from consumption upgrades and aging trends, with rising demand for precision nutrition products [4] Group 5: Electric Motor Industry Developments - Electric motors are the core "driving units" of robots, with technological advancements shifting from traditional general-purpose servo motors to higher performance, customized solutions [5] - The rise of humanoid and collaborative robots emphasizes lightweight, responsive, and compact structures as key performance indicators, driving the growth of frameless torque motors and hollow cup motors [5] - These motors are better suited for complex movements and can be deeply integrated with reducers and control systems, forming a complete "motor + module + algorithm" closed-loop system [5] - Companies like Tuobang Co., Haoshi Electric, and Leisai Intelligent are rapidly adapting to new demand scenarios by iterating fourth-generation frameless motors and 10mm-level hollow cup motors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Haitan Flavor Industry (603288) is set to go public in Hong Kong, aiming to raise at least $1.5 billion for R&D, capacity expansion, digital supply chain, and global market expansion, highlighting its strong market position and investor interest [1][2]. Company Overview - Haitan Flavor Industry has a rich history of over 400 years, originating from "Foshan Ancient Sauce Garden" and evolving into a leading player in China's condiment industry [3][4]. - The company has a comprehensive product range, including soy sauce, oyster sauce, and various other condiments, with over 1,450 SKUs and a significant number of high-revenue products [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 25.61 billion, 24.56 billion, and 26.90 billion RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a projected growth rate of 9.53% for 2024 [6]. - Net profits for the same years were around 6.20 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.36 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 12.65% expected for 2024 [6]. - Haitan Flavor Industry maintains a healthy financial structure with a cash flow of 6.84 billion RMB and a low debt ratio of 23.1% [6][7]. Market Position - The global condiment market is projected to reach 2,143.8 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% from 2024 to 2029, driven by stable demand and consumption upgrades [8][9]. - Haitan Flavor Industry holds a leading market share in various segments, including 13.2% in the soy sauce market and 40.2% in the oyster sauce market in China [10]. Industry Challenges - The company faces increasing competition from other leading brands and rising raw material costs, which could impact profit margins [11].