广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.63%，创业板指跌6.73%，大盘价值跌2.61%，大盘成长跌3.37%，上证50跌1.60%，国证2000代表的小盘跌6.29%，农林牧 渔、商贸零售市场表现靠前，电力设备、通信表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/11指标4.09%，两倍标准差边界为4.73%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/11，中证全指PETTM分位数45%，上证50与沪深300分别为56%、43%，创业板指接近9%，中证500与中证1000 ...

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.63%, the ChiNext Index drop by 6.73%, and the large-cap value index decrease by 2.61% [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, along with retail trade, performed well, while the power equipment and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.11% on January 19, 2024 [1] - As of April 11, 2025, the risk premium stands at 4.09%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.73% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 11, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 45%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 56% and 43% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is at a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 206.9 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 98.3 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5742 trillion yuan [3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors like securities as of April 11, 2025 [7][2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 771.9 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.81% to 23.4 billion yuan [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 771.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.74% increase year-on-year; however, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.4 billion yuan, down 1.81% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 19.812 billion yuan, down 8.44% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was 12.29%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from infrastructure construction grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in the Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions at 16.4% [2]. - Revenue by business segment included: infrastructure construction (681.4 billion yuan, +2.3%), infrastructure design (36.3 billion yuan, -23.3%), dredging (59.4 billion yuan, +11.1%), and other businesses (26.0 billion yuan, +34.7%) [2]. - Gross profit margins for these segments were 11.09%, 20.05%, 12.79%, and 11.63%, respectively, with varying changes year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China and Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions was 636.7 billion yuan and 135.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.9% and +16.4% [2]. - The gross profit margins for these regions were 12.76% and 10.04%, indicating a faster growth rate in the Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions, which now account for 18% of total revenue [2]. Order Backlog and New Contracts - The company has a robust order backlog, with new contract amounts for 2024 reaching 1.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [3]. - New contracts by business segment included: infrastructure construction (1,700.582 billion yuan, +9.12%), infrastructure design (52.646 billion yuan, -5.94%), dredging (116.017 billion yuan, -2.67%), and other businesses (11.940 billion yuan, -38.98%) [3]. - The growth in new contracts is primarily driven by increased demand in overseas projects, urban construction, water conservancy projects, and energy engineering [3]. - The company’s unexecuted contract amount as of the end of 2024 is 3.49 trillion yuan, which is 452% of the expected revenue for 2024 [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a new contract amount growth target of no less than 7.1% and a revenue growth target of no less than 5% for 2025 [4]. - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 6.01%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points, benefiting from enhanced cost control [4]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents for 2024 was 18 billion yuan, primarily due to a net cash inflow from operating activities of 12.5 billion yuan [4].

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for investment, suggesting a "moderate recovery + structural transition" in the economy for 2025 [57]. Core Insights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the need to boost consumption, enhance investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand comprehensively [5][57]. - Key development goals include a GDP growth target of around 5%, a focus on employment, and a commitment to ecological improvement [5][7]. - The report outlines a proactive fiscal policy with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the 2025 Government Work Report - The report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5%, with urban unemployment around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs [5]. - It highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [5]. 2. Interpretation of the 2025 Government Work Report Consumption - Durable goods consumption is expected to double from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan [13]. - The report aims to enhance service consumption in health, elderly care, and childcare sectors [13]. - New consumption models will be promoted, focusing on digital, green, and intelligent consumption [13]. Fixed Asset Investment - The report emphasizes the need for effective investment, with a proposed central budget investment of 735 billion yuan for 2025 [29]. - It encourages private investment in major infrastructure and social welfare projects [30]. - The focus will be on digital economy innovation, particularly in AI and 5G applications [31][32]. Government Purchases - The report outlines plans to expand high-quality public services in education and healthcare, including reforms in public hospitals and medical services [36]. Net Exports - The report aims to stabilize foreign trade and investment, promoting service trade innovation and encouraging foreign investment in various sectors [41]. 3. Investment Guidance from the 2025 Government Work Report - The report identifies key investment directions, including technology innovation, green economy, consumption upgrades, and infrastructure [57][68]. - It highlights the importance of supporting strategic emerging industries, particularly in aerospace, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing [59]. - The green economy is emphasized, with a focus on renewable energy, energy storage technologies, and carbon capture [60]. - Consumption upgrades are targeted to stimulate domestic demand, with specific measures to enhance consumer confidence and spending [61][62].

证券代码：601800 证券简称：中国交建 公告编号：临2025-003 中国交通建设股份有限公司 2024年第四季度主要经营数据公告 中国交通建设股份有限公司（本公司或公司）董事会及全体董事保证本公 告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、 准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 现将公司2024年第四季度主要经营情况公布如下，供各位投资者参阅。 同比增长 146.41%；农林牧渔工程类项目的新签合同额为 85.05 亿元，同比增长 248.26%。 | 业务分类 | | 2024年10-12月 | 2024年累计 | | 2023年 同期累计 | 同比 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 个数 | 金额 | 个数 | 金额 | 金额 | (%) | | 基建建设业务 | 2,499 | 5,511.31 | 7,141 | 17,005.82 | 15,584.82 | 9.12% | | 港口建设 | 100 | 253.91 | 375 | 876.34 | 845.23 | 3.68% | | 道路与桥梁 ...