金融期货早评 宏观：核心 CPI 增幅回升 【市场资讯】1）发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内 需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。2）财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循 环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力支持稳 就业稳外贸。3）中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%，PPI 同比降幅收 窄至 2.9%。4）美国通胀意外下跌，8 月 PPI 环比-0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同比增速 2.6% 低于预期。PPI 公布后，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。5）美联储理事库 克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。米兰出任美 联储理事的提名获得参议院委员会投票通过。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国新办就《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发 展的意见》相关政策措施展开解读。我们判断，此举或标志着促进服务消费系列政策的启 动，后续预计将有更多政策逐步落地，需重点跟踪相关举措的实施进展。此类服务消费刺 激政策，将与"以旧换新"等商品消费提振措施形成协同效应，共同支撑社 ...

NO.3白银有色：因涉嫌信披违法违规被中国证监会立案 NO.2天合光能：子公司斩获首个海外GWh级别构网型项目 9月10日，天合光能公告称，公司控股子公司江苏天合储能有限公司(简称天合储能)近日与3家客户签订 了合计2.48GWh的储能产品销售合同。其中拟交付的海外1GWh订单将采用构网型系统，这是天合储能 在海外市场斩获的首个GWh级别构网型项目，具有重要的里程碑意义。 点评：天合光能控股子公司天合储能近期签订了大额储能产品销售合同，标志着公司在储能领域的市场 拓展取得显著成果。特别是海外市场的GWh级别构网型项目，不仅展示了公司的技术实力，也为其未 来在国际市场的发展奠定了坚实基础。 丨 2025年9月11日星期四丨 NO.1天际股份：控股股东及一致行动人持股比例降至16.83% 9月10日，天际股份（002759）公告称，公司近日收到控股股东汕头市天际有限公司(简称汕头天际)出 具的《告知函》，汕头天际于2025年9月5日、9月8日通过集中竞价减持公司160万股，通过大宗交易减 持公司78.35万股，汕头天际及一致行动人的持股占公司总股本的比例由17.31%降至16.83%。 点评：天际股份控股股东汕头 ...

Group 1 - Tianji Co., Ltd. announced that its controlling shareholder, Shantou Tianji Co., Ltd., reduced its shareholding from 17.31% to 16.83% through market transactions [1] - The reduction in shareholding may impact market confidence in the company's future development, but it is considered a normal market behavior by shareholders [1] Group 2 - Trina Solar's subsidiary, Jiangsu Trina Energy Co., Ltd., signed sales contracts for a total of 2.48 GWh of energy storage products, including a 1 GWh overseas order using a grid-connected system [2] - This marks Trina Energy's first GWh-level grid-connected project in the overseas market, representing a significant milestone for the company [2] Group 3 - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding an investigation into suspected violations of information disclosure [3] - The company stated that its business operations are normal and it will cooperate with the regulatory investigation while fulfilling its disclosure obligations [3]

Group 1 - A new company, Shijiazhuang Mine Chain Technology Service Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Zhao Congming [1] - The company's business scope includes technology services, development, consulting, and various sales related to mining and recycling [1] Group 2 - The company is involved in the installation of ordinary machinery and equipment, as well as the sale of mining machinery [1] - It also engages in the smelting of common non-ferrous metals and precious metals [1] - The company provides technical consulting for resource recycling and the development of energy-efficient technologies in the mining industry [1]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a continuous decline in food prices [1][10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) ended an eight-month downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July [4][5] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3][11] - Industrial prices showed positive changes, with certain sectors like coal processing and black metal smelting experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, contributing to the overall stabilization of PPI [7][8] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in the supply-demand relationship, positively affecting industrial product prices and reducing disorderly competition in various sectors [3][9] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support a gradual recovery in prices, with forecasts indicating a potential narrowing of PPI year-on-year declines in the coming months [8][12]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2510 合约收于 79790 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%，沪铜指数减仓 3280 手至 48.59 万 手。 2.现货：进口货源继续低价出货，沪铜升水继续走低，报升水 60 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 6 连降，持货商本欲挺价出货但下游接受能力一般，现货升水持平昨 日，报升水 40 元/吨。华北由于高铜价抑制消费，现货升贴水下行，报贴水 150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.根据美国政府周二公布的初步基准修订数据，截至 3 月的一年间的非农就业人数下修 91.1 万，相当于每月平 ...

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices remained stable, supported by a significant drop in the US dollar, following a key employment report suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price closed at $9,897.50 per ton, down $0.50 or 0.01% [2] - The US employment report indicated a slowdown in job growth for August, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates has improved the outlook for metals reliant on economic growth, with the US dollar index dropping by 0.6%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4] - The copper premium in China’s Yangshan remained stable at a three-month high of $57 per ton, while JX Advanced Metals indicated potential cuts in copper production due to tight supply, providing additional support for copper prices [7] - LME three-month aluminum and zinc prices increased by $9.00 (0.35%) to $2,600.50 and $17.50 (0.62%) to $2,861.00, respectively [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore and zinc ingot continue to be in a surplus situation, with inventory accumulation in both ore and ingot. The TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc is weakly operating. The domestic supply side remains loose, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises have not improved significantly. The LME market has experienced long - term destocking, resulting in low LME zinc warrants and an increase in the LME zinc monthly spread. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets has intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated its decline. Currently, there are high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. From the perspective of capital positions, some institutional and foreign capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with a high consensus on shorting the variety. It is expected that the short - term downward space is limited, and it will show a low - level oscillation pattern [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted price of SHFE zinc first rose and then fell, closing down 0.74% at 22,140 yuan/ton, with the total open interest slightly increasing to 223,700 lots. LME zinc 3M oscillated upward, closing up 1.63% at 2,814 dollars/ton, and the open interest slightly increased to 191,500 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 21,970 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of - 65 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 75 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 65 yuan/ton, and a flat price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton [25][27][29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. In July, the net import of zinc ingots was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of - 46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In July 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In July 2025, the supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 88,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a shortage of - 42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 7,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned net short, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also decreased, indicating a bearish view from the position perspective [69].