中信建投（601066）证券发布研报称，上周有色金属全面强势上涨，白银、铜空中加速创下历史新高，黄金、锡、铝亦刷新阶段高点记录。资本性开支不 足、资源供应受限、AI需求前景强劲，以及财政赤字扩张、利率处于下行周期等因子重叠，又遭遇美国关税对部分关键矿产的威胁，导致实物在美国与 非美之间分配不均，造成局部货物流动性缺失，资金流入做多。一场用做多有限资源对抗弱化的美元信用的全新表达，正在全球掀起新的资源定价范式， 有色的盛宴正在舞动。 (4)展望：冷静的权益终将向火热的商品靠拢。自11月底我们根据CESCO会议上出现的新变量提示"铜的结构性牛市"以来，一个月时间铜价从8.6万涨破10 万，往美国搬货叠加贵金属情绪高涨是主驱动。相较炙热的铜期货，股票显得相对冷静，一则对搬货造就的结构性牛市持续的时长不确定，二则对铜价重 心定位没共识。铜关税预期未落，2026现货锁定长单未交付，搬货逻辑会持续；其次，权益尚未对8.5万的铜价做充分定价，过于保守，提供了持仓的安 全边际，建议耐心持有，等待商品价格回踩的加仓机会。 中信建投主要观点如下： 工业金属：上周SHFE铜、铝、铅、锌、锡价格变化为5.9%、1.0%、4.0%、0 ...

Group 1 - The market's year-end rally is driven by three main expectations: optimistic outlook from institutional investors, completion of overseas AI model adjustments, and high policy expectations following the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3][4] - The A-share market has shown positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing an eight-day winning streak, indicating the start of the year-end rally [3][4][35] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market hotspot, followed by secondary themes such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [3][4][15] Group 2 - The AI computing power industry is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's Rubin architecture upgrade, positively impacting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPO, and storage chips [3][15][17] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend, driven by price increases in lithium carbonate, silver, copper, and aluminum, with lithium and aluminum prices rising by 69% and 88% respectively over the past four months [20][34] - The 14th Five-Year Plan has led to heightened market policy expectations, with significant developments in sectors like new energy, new materials, quantum technology, mobile communication, and commercial aerospace [13][22][34] Group 3 - The year-end rally is anticipated to coincide with a seasonal "spring surge," which typically occurs between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, with historical data showing a high probability of market gains during this period [8][41] - Recent improvements in overseas liquidity and risk appetite are attributed to a shift in the U.S. strategic focus away from China, easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, and ongoing advancements in the AI sector [10][41] - The release of numerous high-quality AI models has bolstered confidence in the AI industry, contributing to a favorable investment environment [11][10]

这个周末，A股市场被一则消息炸开了锅：ST长药因连续三年财务造假被证监会强制退市，1.6万股东瞬间陷入恐慌。 但讽刺的是，同一时间沪指却走出了 八连阳的行情，站上3960点，单日成交额突破2万亿元。 一边是股民血本无归的悲剧，一边是指数狂欢的盛宴，这种撕裂的画面让人不禁想问：A股到底怎 么了？ ST长药的暴雷细节令人触目惊心。 根据证监会通报，这家公司通过虚增收入和利润的方式，连续三年伪造财务数据，最终被处以巨额罚款：上市公司罚款 1000万元，14名责任人合计罚款3100万元，原总经理更是被终身市场禁入。 更严重的是，深交所已启动退市程序，中介机构也被同步调查，犯罪线索还将 移送公安机关。 截至上周五收盘，ST长药股价已跌至1.47元，单日下跌3.92%。 1.647万名股东眼睁睁看着资产缩水，却无力回天。 这场退市风波并非孤例。 2025年至今，A股已有30家公司被终止上市，其中重大违法退市高达12家，较去年激增数倍。 像ST元成这类公司，甚至因市值连续20日低于5亿元触发交易类退市，股价在21个跌停板后暴跌60%。 监管层的"应退尽退"政策正在发威，仅上周就有4家公司因信披违规被立案调查，加上ST长药， ...

作为湖南有色锑产品出口的主体，锡矿山锑业、北京锑业围绕锑品出口构建了系统化的合规管理体系， 发布《出口管制合规政策声明》，确立"合规先行"的管理原则，出台《锑品两用物项出口许可管理办 法》等制度，建立从合同签订、许可申请、履行监督到后评价的全流程审查机制，在品牌信任度与产品 质量可靠性等方面积淀了综合优势，形成了合规与市场表现相互促进的良性循环。 本报讯 （记者肖伟） 此次成功获批，不仅是国家相关部门对湖南有色综合实力的充分认可，也为公司锑、白银产品打开了通 往国际市场的广阔通道。公司将以此为契机，全面强化合规经营管理，持续深化合规体系与风险防控机 制建设。严格遵循国际贸易规则，进一步拓展国际业务布局，不断提升产品全球市场份额与行业话语 权。对标国际先进标准，持续优化生产工艺、提高产品品质，不断增强品牌美誉度和影响力，充分彰显 国资央企的责任担当与良好形象。 12月26日晚间，湖南有色金属控股集团有限公司（以下简称"湖南有色"）在公司官方微信公众号上发布 消息，近日，商务部公示锑、白银等出口资质审核结果，湖南有色所属4家企业凭借过硬的综合实力、 优异的产品品质成功入选。其中，水口山有色金属有限责任公司（以下简 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen management and optimize layout for resource-constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting, aiming to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction [6][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - The article highlights that under the influence of policy expectations, copper prices surged again, with a maximum daily increase exceeding 4%, reaching a new high for the year [6]. - The report suggests that improving the major project verification mechanism is crucial for aligning local assessments with national industrial regulation requirements [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to SMM, domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons as of Thursday compared to Monday [6]. - As copper prices rise, downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious in their purchasing, with transactions primarily driven by essential needs [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive due to the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and expectations of global economic recovery next year, contributing to a strong performance in copper prices [6]. - Low inventory levels and resilient demand are expected to provide support for prices, although high prices may suppress some physical buying [6]. Group 4: Market Strategy - The report indicates that as the year-end approaches, downstream demand may enter a seasonal lull, leading to a potential accumulation phase in domestic markets [6]. - Short-term attention should be given to the overheating sentiment in precious metals and the risk of significant volatility extending to the non-ferrous market, while maintaining a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing high prices [6].

整体来看，短期锡价大概率维持33-35万元/吨核心区间高位震荡，回调压力逐步积聚；若节前备货不及 预期，价格或测试区间下沿，反弹动能受现货成交疲软制约，难成趋势性上涨。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602上涨，开盘价报338640元/吨，盘中最高报344470元/吨，最低 报332820元/吨，结算价报337950元/吨，收盘报338550元/吨，上涨4590元，涨1.37%；沪锡主力月2602 合约成交量369071手，持仓量52276手，较前一日减少968手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获 悉，12月26日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报332400元/吨-335400元/吨，均价报333900元/吨,较前一日价格 上涨1800元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报333000元/吨-335000元/吨，均价334000元/吨，较上一交易日 价格上涨1750元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，当前锡价正迎来"宏观政策、汇率、流动性"的共振式驱 动。一方面，美联储降息预期因美国CPI数据超预期放缓而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing and upgrading traditional industries in China, particularly focusing on the "new three" industries: new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, to enhance competitiveness and ensure sustainable development in the face of global challenges [1][2]. Summary by Sections Achievements in the 14th Five-Year Plan - Significant progress has been made in enhancing the comprehensive strength and core competitiveness of traditional industries, consolidating international competitiveness [3]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have seen value-added growth of 42% and 37.1% respectively from 2020, with annual growth rates of 9.2% and 8.2% [3]. - The domestic supply of mid-to-high-end products has improved, exemplified by the launch of China's first large cruise ship [3]. Advancements in Smart Manufacturing - A large-scale update of equipment has been implemented, promoting digital transformation and smart upgrades in traditional industries [4]. - Over 30,000 basic smart factories and 500 exemplary smart factories have been established, with efficiency improvements of 22.3% and reduced product development cycles by 28.4% [4]. Green Transformation - Guidelines for energy conservation and carbon reduction in high-energy-consuming industries have been established, leading to a 6% increase in energy efficiency benchmarks by the end of 2024 compared to 2020 [5]. - By 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 12.87 million, an increase of over 800% since 2020, with photovoltaic installations growing by over 400% [5]. Integration of Manufacturing and Services - Initiatives to deepen the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services have been launched, enhancing the support role of service industries for manufacturing [6]. - The recycling system for home appliances has been improved, promoting sustainable consumption and resource utilization [6]. International Competitiveness - Policies have been implemented to enhance the international competitiveness of traditional industries, with industrial exports exceeding 20 trillion yuan for four consecutive years [7]. - By 2024, exports of "new three" products are expected to increase by 2.6 times compared to 2020, reflecting a significant enhancement in international competitive advantages [7]. Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The focus will be on optimizing traditional industries to promote economic quality and reasonable growth, with traditional industries expected to contribute significantly to GDP growth [9]. - The development of new productive forces will rely on the optimization of traditional industries, which serve as a foundation for emerging sectors [10]. Meeting People's Needs - Traditional industries are crucial for meeting the diverse needs of the population, with an emphasis on improving product quality and variety to enhance living standards [11]. Strengthening International Competitiveness - The need to consolidate and expand competitive advantages in traditional industries is highlighted, especially in the context of global economic challenges [12]. Focus Areas for the 15th Five-Year Plan - Specific strategies will be implemented for various sectors, including balancing supply and demand in raw materials, enhancing innovation in new energy sectors, and improving management in resource-intensive industries [13][14][15][16][17].

文字早评 2025/12/26 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部回应是否会放松对美稀土磁体出口的限制：积极促进、便利合规贸易； 2、据证券时报，四家头部硅片企业今日联合大幅上调报价，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主要是上游 硅料涨幅较大所致； 3、国家烟草专卖局：推动电子烟市场供需平衡 切实防范化解市场无序竞争风险； 4、芯片：美光财报会披露，洁净室已成解决 HBM 产能问题的核心，计划将 2026 年洁净室建厂资本支出 翻倍。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.23%/-0.52%/-0.69%/-1.74%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.17%/-0.73%/-1.22%/-3.71%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.43%/-1.40%/-2.12%/-5.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/0.00%/0.04%/-0.16%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 112.510 ，环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the development and transformation of Jiyuan as a modern demonstration zone, focusing on innovation, urban-rural integration, ecological development, deepening reforms, and improving people's livelihoods to achieve high-quality economic growth [3][4][6][8][10]. Group 1: Innovation and Industry Upgrade - Jiyuan is committed to innovation-driven industrial upgrades, establishing a vibrant innovation ecosystem that enhances its industrial advantages [3]. - The annual output value of the non-ferrous metal industry is approaching 200 billion, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 25.4% of the added value of industrial enterprises from January to October [3][4]. Group 2: Urban-Rural Integration - Jiyuan is the only national demonstration zone for integrated urban-rural development, achieving a 70% urbanization rate and over 80% integration [4]. - The city has passed various national reviews, enhancing urban quality and residents' happiness [4][5]. Group 3: Ecological Development - Jiyuan is focused on green transformation, achieving significant progress in ecological protection and restoration, with a forest coverage rate of 41.55% [6][7]. - The city has created 11 national-level green factories, with industrial solid waste utilization rates at 95% and hazardous waste utilization at 90% [7]. Group 4: Reform and Opening Up - Jiyuan is advancing deep reforms to stimulate internal motivation and integrate into the national market, with significant progress in state-owned enterprise reforms [8]. - The city is developing a multi-modal transport network and attracting high-quality investments, maintaining a strong position in import and export values [8]. Group 5: Livelihood Improvement - Jiyuan invests over 70% of its financial resources in people, enhancing the quality of life for its residents [10]. - The per capita disposable income ranks second in the province, with a focus on social security and public services [10][11].

株冶集团12月25日披露，截至12月20日公司股东户数为39200户，较上期（12月10日）减少2300户，环 比降幅为5.54%。 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，株冶集团收盘价为16.08元，下跌2.37%，本期筹码集中以来股价累 计上涨8.50%。具体到各交易日，7次上涨，4次下跌。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（12月24日）两融余额为3.71亿元，其中，融资余额为3.69亿元，本期筹 码集中以来融资余额合计增加4344.08万元，增幅为13.33%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季公司共实现营业收入160.48亿元，同比增长11.54%，实现净利润 8.58亿元，同比增长47.51%，基本每股收益为0.7500元，加权平均净资产收益率24.76%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...