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生猪月报:去库压力依旧维持,偏空格局下猪价偏弱运行-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 12:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Price**: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - **Sow Spot Price**: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - **Piglet Spot Price**: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - **Short - term Supply**: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - **Medium - term Supply**: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - **Long - term Supply**: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - **Demand**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - **Profit**: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].
生猪市场周报:节后需求降温,价格弱势调整-20250530
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 10:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure will ease at the end and beginning of the month, but the selling willingness of breeders and second - fattening farmers increases, and the mid - term supply pressure will increase due to the growth cycle of sows in the second and third quarters. - After the Dragon Boat Festival, terminal demand will cool down again, and the seasonal consumption of pork will weaken with rising temperatures. - In the short term, the change in the slaughter rhythm will lead to an adjustment in hog prices, but the overall price trend is weak due to the mid - term supply - demand imbalance with a looser pattern. - The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.67% weekly. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure will ease in the short term but increase in the mid - term, and demand will decline seasonally. Overall, the short - term price will adjust, and the mid - term trend is weak. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, futures fluctuated and adjusted. The net short position of the top 20 futures decreased, and there were 0 futures warrants. As of May 30, the net short position of the top 20 in hog futures was 8,804 lots, 3,750 lots less than last week, and the number of futures warrants decreased by 633 to 5 lots compared to last week. [10][12][16] - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the July and September hog contracts was 1,295 yuan/ton and 895 yuan/ton respectively this week. - The national average hog price was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from last week and down 1.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.66 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.59% from last month. - The national pork price was 25.68 yuan/kg in the week of May 22, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. - The hog - grain ratio was 6.29 as of the week of May 21, down 0.13 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to weaken. [20][27][31][35] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In April, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly month - on - month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal inventory. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms in April showed a slight increase. - In the first quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory of institutions increased slightly in April. - In April, the hog slaughter volume increased, and the average slaughter weight remained unchanged. [40][43][46] - **Industry**: - As of May 30, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head, a decrease of 68.32 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 35.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.56 yuan/head month - on - month. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.36 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.09 yuan/head week - on - week. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but at a historically low level. - As of May 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. - As of May 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,975.14 yuan/ton, down 52.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 4.31 yuan/ton from the previous week. - As of May 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 943.45, up 0.3% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the monthly feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons. - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. [51][56][60][65] - **Downstream**: - In the 22nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week and 9.03 percentage points higher year - on - year. The frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million heads, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. [79][84] - **Hog Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided. [85]
大商所:生猪集团库中粮肉食投资有限公司的分库中粮家佳康(吉林)有限公司标准仓单最大量由1200吨扩大至3600吨,日发货速度由80吨扩大至240吨,指定车板交割场所中粮家佳康(吉林)有限公司车板每日最大可交割数量由80吨扩大至240吨。上述事项自即日起生效。
news flash· 2025-05-30 09:38
Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has increased the maximum quantity of standard warehouse receipts for the pig group of COFCO Meat Investment Co., Ltd. from 1,200 tons to 3,600 tons [1] - The daily delivery speed has been expanded from 80 tons to 240 tons [1] - The maximum deliverable quantity per day at the designated delivery site, COFCO Jiajia Kang (Jilin) Co., Ltd., has also been increased from 80 tons to 240 tons [1]
猪肉概念涨2.39%,主力资金净流入这些股
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-05-30 09:03
Core Insights - The pork concept sector has seen a rise of 2.39%, leading among concept sectors, with 28 stocks increasing in value, including major gains from companies like Juxing Agriculture and Xiangjia Co., which hit the daily limit [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Juxing Agriculture, Xiangjia Co., and Dayu Biology are among the top gainers, with respective increases of 10.02%, 10.01%, and 7.49% [3][4] - The top decliners include Kemin Foods, Delisi, and Tianyu Biology, with decreases of 0.50%, 0.44%, and 0.14% respectively [1][4] Group 2: Capital Flow - The pork concept sector attracted a net inflow of 609 million yuan, with 21 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2][3] - Juxing Agriculture led the net inflow with 240 million yuan, followed by Muyuan Foods and Xiangjia Co. with 143 million yuan and 77.97 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 3: Capital Inflow Ratios - Juxing Agriculture, Xiangjia Co., and Zhengbang Technology have the highest net inflow ratios at 21.93%, 15.94%, and 12.93% respectively [3][4] - The overall performance of the pork concept stocks indicates strong investor interest and capital movement within the sector [2][3]
巴西获认证为无需接种疫苗仍可消除口蹄疫的国家
news flash· 2025-05-30 08:07
巴西农业和畜牧业联合会29日发布声明说,在法国巴黎举行的第92届世界动物卫生组织大会上,该组织 宣布巴西为无需接种疫苗仍可消除口蹄疫的国家。声明表示,经过数十年积极推动畜群疫苗接种和健康 管控,这一认证是巴西农业和畜牧业的历史性时刻,加强了巴西农业部门和农村生产者对其牲畜健康和 向市场提供产品质量的承诺。该认证除了可以扩大巴西肉类的国际市场之外,还可以为农村生产者和国 家降低相关成本。(新华社) ...
牧原股份盘中涨超5%
news flash· 2025-05-30 05:17
Group 1 - The stock of Muyuan Foods (002714) rose over 5% during trading, with a transaction volume exceeding 2.4 billion yuan [1] - There is a disclosure of dark pool fund flows, indicating early signals of stock accumulation by major investors [1]
A股猪肉概念股直线拉升,巨星农牧涨超8%,神农集团涨超5%,湘佳股份、牧原股份、光明肉业均涨超2%。
news flash· 2025-05-30 01:37
A股猪肉概念股直线拉升,巨星农牧涨超8%,神农集团涨超5%,湘佳股份、牧原股份、光明肉业均涨 超2%。 ...
20人!2024年广东“百千万工程”农技达人短视频活动评选结果公示
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-05-29 13:36
Core Points - The 2024 Guangdong "Hundred Thousand Million Project" Agricultural Technology Expert Short Video Activity results were announced, recognizing ten individuals as "Top Experts" and another ten as "Outstanding Experts" [2][3][26]. - The activity aimed to utilize short videos to widely disseminate practical agricultural techniques and support the ongoing development of the "Hundred Thousand Million Project" [5][12]. Group 1 - The event started on November 25, 2024, and lasted several months, involving public voting, expert evaluation, and review processes [4][26]. - A total of over 3,500 entries were received, with the videos collectively achieving over 100 million views, creating popular topics on platforms like Douyin [12][24]. - Participants included agricultural technology specialists, local experts, family farm owners, cooperative leaders, and technical personnel from agricultural enterprises [7][8][22]. Group 2 - The short videos produced focused on Guangdong's characteristic agricultural industries, addressing key agricultural seasons, production cycles, and regional demands [9][10][23]. - Content covered various agricultural topics, including lychee flower thinning, aquaculture disease management, smart agricultural equipment applications, and e-commerce sales techniques [11][12]. - The activity fostered an interactive online environment, resembling a "Cloud Agricultural Academy," where viewers engaged in discussions about technical challenges [13][14].
持之以恒宁夏连续18年举办投资者集体接待日活动 辖区上市公司真金白银回报投资者力度不断增强
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-29 13:09
另外,截至目前,宁夏已有11家次上市公司开展回购增持超5亿元,其中3家公司积极使用了股票回购增 持再贷款工具,占比18.75%。 北方民族大学经济学院教授张晓凤在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,宁夏上市公司业绩实现稳健增 长,并积极通过现金分红、回购增持等多种方式回馈投资者,非常有助于提升投资者的获得感,并提振 投资者的投资信心。 为进一步加强宁夏辖区上市公司与投资者的沟通交流,切实保护投资者合法权益,5月28日,在宁夏证 监局指导下,由宁夏上市公司协会、深圳市全景网络有限公司主办的"宁夏辖区上市公司投资者集体接 待日暨2024年度业绩说明会"在银川市举行。截至目前,宁夏已连续18年举办投资者集体接待日暨业绩 说明会活动。 2024年,宁夏16家上市公司实现营业收入623.38亿元,同比增长4.40%;实现净利润64.77亿元,同比增 长5.43%。同时,宁夏9家上市公司披露实施现金分红36.89亿元,同比增长41.85%,分红上市公司家数 与分红金额均创历史新高,显示出宁夏上市公司以扎实业绩和真金白银回报投资者的力度进一步增强。 宁夏证监局上述相关负责人表示,宁夏证监局将始终把保护投资者合法权益作为工作的出 ...
供应仍显宽松,猪价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:24
农产品日报 | 2025-05-28 供应仍显宽松,猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13560元/吨,较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨,幅度-0.29%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.60元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.14元/公斤,现货基差 LH09+1040,较前交易日变动+180;江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.76元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤,现货基差LH09+1200,较前交易日变动+130; 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.36元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤,现货基差LH09+800,较前交易日变动+120。 据农业农村部监测,5月27日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.07,比昨天上升0.09个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为114.28,比昨天上升0.12个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.91元/公斤,比昨天上升1.5%;牛肉63.00 元/公斤,比昨天下降1.0%;羊肉59.36元/公斤,与昨天持平;鸡蛋7.72元/公斤,比昨天下降0.3%;白条鸡17.53元/ 公斤,比昨天上升1.3%。 市场分析 ...