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生猪:交易累库及存量预期印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 08:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (5.12 - 5.18), the spot price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 44.1 yuan/kg (last week 45 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.85 yuan/kg (last week 15 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week. The futures price of live pigs was weak, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13660 yuan/ton (last week 13925 yuan/ton), and the basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton (last week 1075 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (5.19 - 5.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter has a greater impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. The LH2509 contract price has a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15000 yuan/ton. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (5.12 - 5.18) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted. On the supply side, in May, the group showed no intention to actively sell and reduce weight, and individual farmers sold pigs in a rolling manner. On the demand side, the frozen - fresh price difference continued to support regular demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening weakened after the festival. The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live pigs was weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 14060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13660 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (5.19 - 5.25) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. From the supply perspective, after the replenishment from February to April, the empty pen rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening have decreased, and the inventory accumulation progress has accelerated, but there is still room for inventory accumulation. From the demand perspective, it is currently the off - season for consumption, with an increase in the demand for frozen - to - fresh conversion, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. Overall, the speculative demand in May is still supported, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2509 contract decreased due to the confirmation of long - term expectations by piglet and feed data and the confirmation of inventory accumulation by the slaughter of fattened pigs. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis was 1190 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of LH2507 - LH2509 was - 255 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight this week was 126.4KG (last week 126.51KG). In March, the pork production was 5.08 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [9][12].
本周猪价继续下探 机构预计今年猪价中枢有支撑
news flash· 2025-05-17 06:24
智通财经5月17日电,据农业农村部监测,5月16日,全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公 斤,与上周五(5月9日)的20.62元/公斤相比,上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤,与上周均 价持平。本周国内生猪价格下跌为主,周均价环比下滑。据中国养猪网的数据,5月16日,生猪(外三 元)价格为14.74元/公斤,与上周五(5月9日)的14.86元/公斤相比,下降0.8%。从一周均价来看,本 周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤,与上周14.87元/公斤相比,下降0.4%。开源证券认为,4月猪价淡季不淡, 5月供给缺口传导将至叠加需求边际向好,猪价中枢或进一步抬升。展望后市,供给端前期能繁淘汰缺 口及冬春季腹泻病毒变异流行仔猪损失缺口传导将至,5月生猪出栏增量有限,需求端猪肉消费边际向 好。内外因素共同驱动下,5月猪价中枢或延续抬升态势,2025年猪价中枢有支撑。 (澎湃) 本周猪价继续下探 机构预计今年猪价中枢有支撑 ...
牧原股份(002714) - 002714牧原股份调研活动信息20250517
2025-05-17 03:26
Group 1: Company Overview and Achievements - The company has made significant progress in business, internal governance, and compliance over the past decade, with satisfactory results [5] - Continuous improvement in internal governance and compliance, with a focus on environmental regulations [5] - The company has accumulated core capabilities in product, service, comprehensive development of the supply chain, and application of modern technology [6] Group 2: Cost Management and Future Goals - As of April 2025, the total cost of pig farming reached 12.4 RMB/kg, with a target of 12 RMB/kg for the year [7] - The company aims to reduce costs by 600 RMB per pig while creating a profit space of 100 RMB per pig through improved production efficiency [8] - Strategies include enhancing disease prevention capabilities, establishing a scientific breeding system, and promoting low-soy diets [7][8] Group 3: Smart Technology Implementation - Smart technology is being integrated into company culture and management, enhancing standardization and efficiency [9] - Intelligent pig houses maintain optimal growth conditions year-round, improving production metrics [9] - Smart feeding systems allow for precise nutritional supply, reducing labor intensity and contributing to cost reduction [9] Group 4: Meat Processing Business Performance - The meat processing segment showed significant improvement in Q1 2025, with enhanced management and operational capabilities [11] - The company is focusing on product quality and consumer preferences to drive future growth in the meat processing sector [11] Group 5: International Development Strategy - The company aims to expand internationally, leveraging its expertise in nutrition, breeding, and pig house design [12] - Plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance capital internationalization and attract global talent [12][14] Group 6: Investor Returns and Financial Planning - The company emphasizes sustainable cash dividends, planning to increase the cash distribution from 20% to 40% of distributable profits from 2024 to 2026 [15] - In 2024, the total cash dividend is projected to reach 75.88 billion RMB, marking a new high [15] - The company aims to reduce overall debt by approximately 10 billion RMB and maintain a declining debt-to-asset ratio [16]
西藏那曲畜牧业形成“结构优、出栏活、饲草足”格局
Core Insights - The article highlights the high-quality development of the livestock industry in Naqu City through a collaborative approach involving optimization of livestock structure, scientific regulation of livestock output, and strengthening of forage supply. Group 1: Investment and Support - A total investment of 10.45 million yuan has been made since 2024, benefiting 227 operating entities and 41,100 farming households, creating a positive development pattern characterized by optimized structure, active output, and sufficient forage [1][2]. Group 2: Livestock Structure Optimization - The implementation of the yak male and female livestock structure adjustment subsidy program has led to an increase in female yaks from 66,800 to 75,000, with subsidies of 460 yuan per new female yak totaling 3.22 million yuan [1]. - The reduction of male yaks by 2,041 has resulted in additional income of approximately 4.974 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Output Mechanism Innovation - A subsidy mechanism for off-season self-marketing has been established, with a funding of 3.33 million yuan, benefiting 31 cooperatives and over 17,000 herders, leading to an annual output of 1.5747 million livestock [1]. Group 4: Forage Supply Assurance - An investment of 3.9 million yuan has been allocated for planting, procurement, and machinery subsidies, achieving a policy coverage rate of 85.5% and disbursing 3.3336 million yuan in subsidies [2]. - The measures have increased forage reserves and reduced costs, with a livestock mortality rate maintained below 2.3% and a calf survival rate of 94.95% [2].
牧原股份业绩暴增519%!宣布85亿分红后,港股上市计划再加速
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-16 21:11
Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, up 519.42% [1] - A generous cash dividend plan was announced, with a total cash dividend of 75.88 billion yuan for the year, representing 45.38% of the annual net profit [1] - The company plans to list H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise over $1 billion for international expansion and innovation [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, and a net profit of 4.49 billion yuan, up 288.79% [1] - The company's breeding cost per kilogram decreased from 15.8 yuan in early 2024 to 12.5 yuan by March 2025, with a target to reduce it to around 12 yuan for the entire year of 2025 [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its international presence, having established a partnership with a Vietnamese company for pig farming technology services and set up a subsidiary in Vietnam [2] - A focus on technological innovation is evident, with a research and development investment of 1.747 billion yuan in 2024 and a dedicated R&D team of over 6,486 members [3]
*ST傲农:撤销退市风险警示及其他风险警示
news flash· 2025-05-16 10:13
*ST傲农(603363.SH)公告称,因公司撤销 退市风险警示及其他风险警示,公司股票将于2025年5月19日 停牌一天,并于5月20日 复牌。撤销后,公司股票简称由"*ST傲农"变更为"傲农生物"。 ...
牧原食品据悉聘请银行安排香港上市事宜
news flash· 2025-05-16 09:45
据报道,知情人士透露,牧原食品已聘请中信证券、高盛集团和摩根士丹利负责今年香港上市事宜。此 前报道称该公司计划通过发行股票筹集至少10亿美元。(36氪) ...
生猪市场周报:生猪价格下跌,关注二育动态-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 08:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly. In the short - term, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state. The price may continue to be under pressure, but continuous price drops may cause farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the decline. It is recommended that short positions be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, and hold them with a light position while setting stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers' slaughter increased slightly, with stable slaughter weight. The risk of second - fattening increased, and the mid - term supply pressure is expected to rise. On the demand side, terminal demand declined, but there may be a short - term increase in demand due to Dragon Boat Festival stocking. Overall, short - term supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions can be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, hold them with a light position, and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 696 futures warehouse receipts, 9 less than last week [12][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The base difference of the May live pig contract was 570 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 1240 yuan/ton [20]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.83 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from last week and 0.80% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.69 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from last week and 0.51% from last month [27]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: The national average price of pork was 25.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, 270,000 less than last month. In April, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained unchanged from last week [46]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of May 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan/head from last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan/head from last week. The poultry farming profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.14 yuan/head week - on - week [51]. 3.3.3. Domestic Situation - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [56]. 3.3.4. Substitute Situation - **White - striped Chicken Price and Fat - to - Standard Price Difference**: As of the week of May 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of May 8, the national average fat - to - standard price difference of live pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week [60]. 3.3.5. Feed Situation - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of May 16, the spot price of soybean meal was 3115.71 yuan/ton, down 196.58 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week [65]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 937.19, down 1.36% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [68]. - **Feed Output**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed output was 27.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.428 million tons [72]. 3.3.6. CPI Situation - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the same decline rate as last month [75]. 3.3.7. Downstream Situation - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 20th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 28.11%, down 0.43 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, up 0.01% from last week [78]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.63 million, up 40.7% from last month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [83]. 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [84].
南农晨读 | “荔枝穹顶”点亮夜空
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-05-16 08:35
Group 1 - Guangdong Province has launched a series of innovative tree-planting activities, promoting a "cloud planting + offline planting" model that engages the public in environmental conservation [4][5][6] - Over 100 users of the "Plant a Tree" app participated in the recent tree-planting events, successfully planting more than 200 trees [5][6] - The initiative is part of a broader effort to make tree planting more accessible and engaging through the integration of internet technology [6][7] Group 2 - The brand value of Yingde black tea has reached 5.178 billion yuan, marking an 8.5% increase and positioning it as the top brand in the national black tea category [10][11] - This achievement is seen as a milestone in the local efforts to promote the integration of tea culture, industry, and technology [11][12] - Yingde black tea gained significant recognition two years ago when it was served at a tea meeting between the leaders of China and France [12][13] Group 3 - The agricultural technology team in Xin'an Town is actively promoting the guava industry by providing specialized training on seedling cultivation techniques [15][17] - The training attracted nearly 200 local villagers, demonstrating a strong community interest in enhancing agricultural practices [19] Group 4 - The "Qingyuan Chicken" brand is being marketed through live streaming, showcasing the company's innovative approach to e-commerce in the agricultural sector [22][26] - Qingyuan has maintained its position as the top region for agricultural e-commerce in China for six consecutive years, highlighting the effectiveness of its marketing strategies [22][23] Group 5 - The "New Feng Flavor" agricultural brand is seeking to establish a think tank to enhance regional agricultural development and brand strength [41][42] - Experts from various fields are invited to join the think tank, which aims to leverage their knowledge for the benefit of the local agricultural economy [43][44]
牧原股份:4月养殖成本12.4元/kg 头均600降本目标已实现三分之二
news flash· 2025-05-16 08:35
Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved two-thirds of its cost reduction target of 600 yuan per head, with the breeding cost in April reaching 12.4 yuan per kg [1] Group 1 - The breeding cost for April is reported at 12.4 yuan per kg [1] - The company has set a cost target of an average of 12 yuan per kg for the year 2025 [1] - The current cost reduction target of 600 yuan per head has been achieved by two-thirds [1]