Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "first dip, then rise" pattern next week, presenting a favorable opportunity for positioning before the year-end market [3][13]. Market Analysis - After a high on Monday, the market entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, indicating significant investor divergence. The recent developments, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the economic work conference, aligned with expectations, providing more certainty and potentially lowering risk assessments. The upcoming "super central bank week" and Japan's interest rate trends may introduce uncertainties that could temporarily suppress risk evaluations [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of extreme risk styles is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to emerge in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, which are anticipated to rise again after a four-year lull [5][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been dormant for years, is approaching a turning point. Stocks in this sector, such as mid-sized liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care, are expected to rebound due to price corrections and supply constraints [6][16]. 2. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is gaining strength, with expectations for continued event-driven catalysts, particularly in reusable rockets and accelerated industry IPOs [7][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: After a prolonged adjustment, the nuclear fusion sector is beginning to rebound, with anticipated industrial catalysts and a shift from theoretical research to engineering practice, suggesting significant future investment demand [7][17]. - **Consumer Sector**: Recent government initiatives to boost consumption indicate that policies aimed at improving domestic demand may become a central theme in 2026, particularly in service consumption [7][17]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated expansions in domestic wafer fabrication and the capitalization of leading domestic storage chip manufacturers present opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials [8][18]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, new energy upstream, and chemicals [8][17].

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩叠加 12 月长单价上调，推动钨价再创历史新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：供需相对平衡，氧化镨钕震荡反弹。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 2.21%至 57.9 万 元/吨，氧化镝下跌 7.43%至 137 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 3.75%至 628 万元/吨。供给 端 ...

宏观周报 坚持内需主导，政策更加有为 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心结论 中央经济工作会议：坚持内需主导，政策更加有为。12 月 10 日至 11 日中 央经济工作会议召开。会议指出，当前经济发展面临问题和挑战，但长期向 好趋势不变。我们预计 2026 年经济增长目标定在 5%左右。2026 年将实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，增量政策和存量政策协同发力，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。我们预计 2026 年一般预算赤字率维 持 4%左右，广义政府融资规模较 2025 年进一步增加，相对 GDP 比例可能 保持基本稳定；公开市场操作利率和 LPR 下调 10 个 bp 左右。会议对 2026 年经济工作提出八方面主要任务，其中"坚持内需主导"放在 2026 年经济 工作任务首位。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，有助于促进物价回升。此外，会 议还提出稳定房地产市场，加强民生保障，着力稳就业等方面任务。 中观产业跟踪：工业需求平淡，黑色系走弱，焦煤焦炭价格大跌，受下游钢 厂需求下滑、炼焦煤进口增长、反内卷不及预期等因素影响；南华玻璃价格 周跌超 8%。相比之下，美联储降息预期落地，有 ...

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今天咱们聊一个近期风头甚至盖过黄金的品种——白银。如果你最近关注市 场，一定会被它的涨势吓一跳：价格接连刷新历史纪录，年内涨幅超过100%，直接把黄金甩在了身 后。市场上甚至开始出现一种声音，说"白银正在成为新的黄金"。这到底是一时的炒作，还是一场深刻 的投资逻辑变局？今天，帮主就带你穿透价格的喧嚣，看看白银到底"成色"几何。 3. 当前暴涨中混杂着强烈的散户 "FOMO"（错失恐惧）情绪，这加剧了行情的脆弱性。 首先，我们必须承认，白银这次上涨的"底气"比以往都足。 它正摆脱过去作为黄金"影子"或"附属 品"的传统角色，拥有了自己独立的投资叙事。这个新故事的核心，是它强大的 "工业金属"属性。全球 绿色转型和科技革命，为白银创造了前所未有的需求。 · 光伏是头号功臣，太阳能电池板里的导电银浆离不开它，光伏用银目前已占工业需求的近三成。 · 电动汽车的普及，让每辆车的平均用银量比传统汽车高出约67%-79%。 · 甚至炙手可热的 AI和数据中心，其服务器、芯片封装也离不开白银的导电特性。 与此同时，供应却跟不上。全球白银市场已连续第五年出现供应缺口，2025年的缺口预计高达约1.17亿 ...

Group 1 - The small metal sector experienced a decline of 0.87% compared to the previous trading day, with Huayang New Materials leading the drop [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32, down 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13147.39, down 1.27% [1] - The net outflow of main funds in the small metal sector was 800 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 691 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The small metal sector attracted a net inflow of 109 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Detailed fund flow data for individual stocks in the small metal sector is available in the accompanying table [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest in the non-ferrous metals sector is driven by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, which is expected to support metal prices and attract investment into the sector [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 11, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) saw an intraday price increase of over 1.3%, currently up by 0.77%, with a net subscription of 28.8 million units, reflecting strong market confidence [1][4]. - The ETF has accumulated 104 million yuan in the past three days, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. - As of December 10, the ETF's total size reached 805 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Gold stocks have shown active performance, with Shandong Gold leading with a rise of over 9%, followed by Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company with increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [3][11]. - Yunnan Zinc Industry, focusing on the production of germanium chips for low-orbit satellite networks, has seen a nearly 9% increase, highlighting the growth in the germanium supply chain [3][11]. Group 3: Investment Drivers - Three key dimensions explain the strong investment in the non-ferrous metals sector: 1. **Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the expectation of no future rate hikes are seen as supportive for metal prices [4][13]. 2. **Industry Dynamics**: Breakthroughs in aluminum battery technology and limited domestic production capacity are expected to sustain high demand and prices for aluminum [4][13]. 3. **Performance Outlook**: The non-ferrous metals ETF's index is projected to see a significant rebound in profitability starting in 2025, with a forecasted year-on-year net profit growth of 54.5%, indicating a potential end to the current profit downturn [4][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Industry experts suggest that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a structural bull market characterized by monetary easing, supply-demand dynamics, and strategic reassessment of key metals [6][15]. - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in non-ferrous metals, with various firms projecting sustained investment interest in commodities [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of PMG International Co., LTD by Lens Technology (300433) aims to enhance its capabilities in the AI computing hardware sector, leveraging its existing manufacturing strengths and expanding into new markets [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Lens Technology signed a letter of intent to acquire 100% equity of PMG International, with specific terms to be negotiated based on due diligence and assessments [1]. - The acquisition is intended to provide Lens Technology with established technology and customer certifications in the server cabinet business, enhancing its competitive edge in AI computing hardware [2]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The small metals sector in A-shares experienced a 0.79% increase on December 10, with significant price rises in tungsten and other metals, indicating strong market demand [3][5]. - Tungsten prices have surged, with black tungsten concentrate reaching 363,000 CNY/ton, a 153.85% increase year-to-date, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten powder also saw significant price hikes [3][5]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The price increases in small metals are driven by supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising downstream demand from industries such as renewable energy and semiconductors [5]. - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are supporting commodity prices, with an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [5]. Group 4: Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen substantial capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion CNY on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [6]. - Notable stocks such as China Uranium Industry and Zhongtung High-tech have attracted significant financing, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [6][7]. Group 5: Company Performance - The small metals sector has shown robust performance, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion CNY in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting a 41.42% year-on-year increase [7]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported exceptional profit growth, with increases of 748.07% and 280.27% respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in A-shares has shown a significant upward trend, with the sector index closing up by 0.79% on December 10, driven by notable price increases in various small metal varieties, particularly tungsten [2][3]. Price Movements - Tungsten prices have surged, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) priced at 363,000 yuan/ton, up 153.85% year-to-date; ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 535,000 yuan/ton, up 153.55%; and tungsten powder at 880 yuan/kg, up 178.48%, all reaching historical highs [3][5]. - Other small metals like cobalt and tin have also seen significant price increases, with cobalt averaging 408,000 yuan/ton (up 16.91% since October) and tin futures rising 15.74% since October [3][5]. Factors Driving Price Increases - The price increases are attributed to supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising downstream demand. Supply-side constraints include strict mining quotas and environmental regulations for tungsten, and slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar [5]. - Macroeconomic factors include strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically weakens the dollar and supports commodity prices [5]. - Downstream demand is driven by growth in industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and military applications, enhancing the outlook for strategic small metals [5]. Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen substantial capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion yuan on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [7]. - Notable companies like Western Materials received a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, benefiting from their core supply roles in aerospace and marine engineering [7]. Company Performance - The small metals sector's overall performance has improved, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 41.42% [8]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported significant profit growth, with increases of 748.07% and 280.27% respectively [8]. Capacity Expansion - Shenghe Resources has disclosed plans for capacity expansion, with its subsidiary's high-performance rare earth polishing powder project progressing as scheduled, expected to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in the A-share market has shown a significant upward trend, driven by multiple factors including supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and increasing downstream demand [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - The small metals sector has experienced notable price increases, particularly in tungsten, which has reached historical highs. As of December 10, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 363,000 yuan/ton, up 153.85% year-to-date; ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 535,000 yuan/ton, up 153.55%; and tungsten powder is at 880 yuan/kg, up 178.48% [3][5]. - Other metals such as cobalt and tin have also seen significant price increases, with cobalt averaging 408,000 yuan/ton (up 16.91% since October) and tin rising 13.89% over the same period [3][5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The price increases are attributed to supply-side constraints, such as strict mining quotas and environmental regulations affecting tungsten, and ongoing export restrictions on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically weakens the dollar and supports commodity prices [5]. - Downstream demand from industries like new energy, semiconductors, and defense is rapidly growing, boosting expectations for strategic small metals [5]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen significant capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion yuan on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [6]. - Notably, Western Materials received a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, with its stock achieving a strong performance in recent trading sessions [6]. - Financing net purchases in the small metals sector reached 1.879 billion yuan in December, with several stocks, including China Uranium Industry, receiving substantial net purchases [6]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The small metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.42% [7]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported significant profit increases of 748.07% and 280.27%, respectively [7]. - Shenghe Resources is expanding its production capacity, with a project expected to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 [7].

细分方向来看，直接配套低轨卫星组网需求，专注空间太阳能电池用锗晶片建设项目，国内锗产业链最 完整、产销量第一的云南锗业领涨超6%；受益于锂电池板块走强，锂业龙头盛新锂能涨近6%；黄金股 亦有亮眼表现，山金国际涨超3%，四川黄金涨逾2%。权重股紫金矿业、中国铝业涨逾1%。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日陷 | 申万 -- 级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 云南省业 | 6.31% | September 1 Nove | 布色合屈 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 1934Z | 30.68亿 | | 2 | 原新推能 | 5.97% | cond | 有色合居 | 能源合同 | 45 | 296Z | 24.534Z | | 3 | 白银有色 | 4.43% | 3 | 有色全属 | 工业主属 | स्टे | 3847 | 11.41 亿 | | प | 国域,亚 | 4.29% | 100 ...