相关产品：创业板软件ETF华夏（159256）、创业板200ETF华夏（159573）、人工智能AIETF （515070）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 在AI产业链中，软件行业主要处于中游技术层和下游应用层，扮演着核心技术支撑和应用落地的关键 角色。具体来看，软件行业在中游技术层主要提供AI框架、开发平台和算法模型，这些技术是AI应用 开发的基础。在下游应用层，软件行业通过将AI技术与各行业结合，推动AI应用的落地。 中信建投证券近期研报指出，AI大模型的发展正从"生成"迈向"能推理、能行动"的智能体（Agent）阶 段。报告认为，行业竞争焦点已从基准测试转向改造用户行为与任务流程的能力，模型强大的逻辑推理 能力将支撑各领域智能体落地，推动企业端AI应用从"降本"到"增收"，2026年商业化进程有望持续加 速。 今日A股震荡为主，科技赛道再度大涨，AI智能体、AIGC概念、人工智能、脑机接口板块表现强势， 软件开发板块震荡拉升，创业板软件ETF华夏（159256）盘中大涨超3%，其持仓股昆仑万维、每日互 动、卫宁健康、拓尔思、汉得信息涨幅均超10%，鼎捷数智、万兴科技等股涨幅居前。 消息方面，近日，清华大 ...

Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs upgrades the investment rating for the Asia-Pacific region, specifically the MX APJ index, with a 12-month target raised to 825 points, indicating a 14% price return in USD and a total return of 17% [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as constructive, with U.S. GDP growth expected to exceed market consensus at 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates twice before mid-year, which typically benefits Asian markets [3][4]. - Earnings growth for 2026 is projected to be strong, increasing from 10% to 19%, with significant contributions from North Asia, India, and cyclical sectors [1][5]. - Valuations are considered reasonable but slightly high, with a forecasted slight compression from 15x to 14.6x, indicating that corporate earnings will be the primary driver of stock market returns [6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% and AEG growth around 4.8%. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, leading to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for Asian markets [3][4]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to rise significantly, with overall growth expected to reach 19%. The recovery in quarterly earnings is attributed to easing base effects, and the ERI indicator suggests a positive outlook for earnings revisions [5]. Valuation Perspective - Current valuations are slightly above historical averages, with the region's price-to-earnings ratio at 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term mean. Earnings will be crucial for driving stock market returns this year [6]. Fund Flow Trends - There has been a significant outflow of approximately $100 billion from overseas investors, with current mutual fund allocations 75 basis points below benchmarks, indicating potential for rebuilding positions in the region [7][8]. Sector and Industry Focus - Investment in large-scale enterprises is expected to grow by 34% to approximately $550 billion, benefiting sectors such as hardware, semiconductors, and AI. The "Asian Energy Upgrade" theme is highlighted, focusing on nuclear power, electricity, and renewable energy [9]. - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China presents opportunities for U.S. re-industrialization, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing investments in response to U.S. demand [10]. China Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain robust, with the MSCI China index projected to rise by 15%-17% and the CSI 300 index by about 10%. Profit growth is forecasted to increase significantly from 4% to 14% [13][14]. India Market Strategy - The Indian market rating has been upgraded to "overweight," with expected earnings growth of around 15%. Key sectors include finance, consumer goods, and industrials, particularly in defense and energy security [16][19].

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show an overall upward trend in 2025, driven by policy support, liquidity, and fundamentals, with significant structural differentiation in performance across sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major A-share indices saw substantial increases in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 18.4%, 17.7%, and 49.6% respectively [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares at the end of 2025 is approximately 123 trillion RMB, an increase of 24.54 trillion RMB or about 25% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The A-share market exhibited clear structural differentiation, with strong performances in technology, high-end manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals, while consumer sectors lagged [2] - The best-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, with gains of 94.7% and 84.7% respectively, while food and beverage and coal sectors declined by 9.7% and 5.3% [2] - The market structure reflects varying industry prosperity and indicates a profound change in China's economic structure, with technology manufacturing becoming a driving force [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a moderate recovery in 2026, with a deepening trend of structural transformation and upgrading [3] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are anticipated to be introduced, addressing weak domestic demand and consumer confidence [3] Group 4: Corporate Earnings - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue growth for A-shares was 1.29%, and profit growth was 4.0%, indicating a stabilization trend in corporate earnings [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for listed companies has stabilized for four consecutive quarters, with a slight improvement noted in Q3 2025 [4] Group 5: Sector Focus - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly artificial intelligence, are still in the early stages of development, with significant potential for future growth [5] - The consumer sector faces challenges due to weak domestic demand and demographic shifts, but long-term investment appeal is emerging [6] - The outbound industry chain shows strong competitiveness, with exports performing well, supported by China's robust industrial system and engineer advantages [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxation, and monetary policy adjustments, providing valuable lessons for today's market [1] Group 1: Formation of the Bubble - The bubble was fueled by multiple core drivers, including the internet revolution that significantly increased U.S. labor productivity and a macroeconomic environment that maintained resilience during the 1997-1998 overseas crisis [1][2] - The 1996 Telecommunications Act created a unified internet market, while relaxed financial regulations encouraged mixed operations, contributing to the bubble's formation [1][2] - The monetary policy under Alan Greenspan was initially flexible and technology-friendly from 1995 to 1999, only shifting to a restrictive stance in 2000 to curb stock market overheating [1][2] Group 2: Evolution of the Bubble - The bubble's evolution can be divided into three phases: - 1995-1997 marked the prologue, with the IPO of Netscape in 1995 igniting a tech IPO boom and a balanced market development [2][31] - 1998-1999 saw an investment climax, with capital flowing into the U.S. due to overseas turmoil and the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cuts, leading to a surge in tech stocks [2][42] - The bubble burst in 2000 due to multiple factors, including continuous rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, cash flow crises in internet companies, and the Microsoft antitrust case, resulting in a significant drop in the Nasdaq index [2][42] Group 3: Underlying Logic of the Bubble - The core logic behind the bubble is evident: loose liquidity and responsive monetary policy formed the foundation, while the profit-seeking nature of capitalism and regulatory relaxation acted as the driving force [2][3] - Uncontrolled leverage expansion, driven by credit descent, was crucial in pushing the bubble to extremes, with stock option incentives and lax accounting rules contributing to capital inflation [2][3] Group 4: Lessons Learned - The essence of technological progress is productivity improvement, and excessive capital investment during periods of enthusiasm can hinder efficiency gains [3] - Investors should be cautious of narratives detached from fundamentals, emphasizing cash flow and real profitability [3] - Regulatory frameworks must balance innovation and risk to prevent excessive leverage, while monetary policy should consider multiple objectives and carefully manage liquidity adjustments [3]

——编 者 从一所高校看： "两头跑"的育人探索 记者 黄 超 上海紫竹国家高新技术产业开发区，每周一次的"技术对齐日"，上海交通大学并行与分布式系统研究所 博士研究生和敬凯，都会在黄大年茶思屋与华为企业导师碰头。 "你测的延迟数据，在手机相机启动场景里，能复现吗？"华为资深工程师对着电脑屏幕上的曲线 问。"可以，这是模拟数据。但我需要真机上的追踪日志来精确量化影响。"和敬凯回答。屏幕上，鸿蒙 操作系统的代码闪烁着。 这是上海交大—华为操作系统专项联培班（以下简称"华为班"）的日常缩影。自2021年启动以来，它成 为独特的"接口"，一端连着校园的前沿探索，另一端接着产业界的真实需求。在上海交大师生参与下， 华为鸿蒙操作系统及开源鸿蒙日臻完善，一场关于"协同培养下一代基础软件根技术人才"的实验也同步 展开。 "国家、行业对高端基础软件人才，特别是人工智能融合型技术领军者的渴求十分迫切，但工程教育与 创新实践存在一定脱节。"上海交大并行与分布式系统研究所特聘教授、开源鸿蒙项目群技术指导委员 会创始主席陈海波说，华为班以研究生培养为主，探索形成"三年三阶段"的特色路径：首年由华为导师 深度参与课程教学，次年进入华为 ...

Group 1: Education Technology Talent Development - The topic of "education technology talent" has become a focal point, with practical examples showing how education, technology, and talent can support and advance each other [1] - Shanghai Jiao Tong University has established a unique "Huawei Class" to cultivate software talent, connecting academic research with industry needs [2][3] - The "Huawei Class" features a three-stage training path for graduate students, emphasizing collaboration between academic and industry mentors [3] Group 2: Successful Case Studies - A professor at Nanjing Medical University successfully transitioned a new drug to commercialization, aided by the Jiangsu Regional Technology Transfer Center [5][6] - The Jiangsu center provides comprehensive support for technology transfer, including funding and risk management strategies [7] - The center has facilitated numerous collaborations between universities and companies, resulting in significant technology transfers and innovations [9] Group 3: University-Industry Collaboration - Shenzhen Polytechnic University emphasizes hands-on experience for students, integrating academic learning with real-world projects in collaboration with industry [11][12] - The university aligns its curriculum with Shenzhen's industrial needs, focusing on interdisciplinary programs that address core industry demands [12][13] - Shenzhen's rapid establishment of new universities aims to enhance local education resources and support technological innovation [13][14] Group 4: Government Support and Initiatives - The Shenzhen government has invested significantly in research funding and infrastructure to support higher education and innovation [14] - Initiatives include granting universities autonomy in talent recruitment and establishing research platforms to foster collaboration [14] - The city aims to create a virtuous cycle of talent development and technological innovation through comprehensive reforms in higher education [14]

Group 1 - The core project of Wanjing Technology's creative science park in Changsha is progressing rapidly, with the main structure completed in December 2022 and various construction lines advancing simultaneously [2] - The first phase of the park is expected to be operational by the second half of 2027, featuring a multifunctional ecological space for work, innovation, and living [2] - The second phase will include open sports facilities and a rooftop garden, promoting a healthy work-life balance for employees [2] Group 2 - Wanjing Technology, known as the "Chinese version of Adobe," has expanded significantly since returning to Hunan in 2018, investing nearly 1 billion yuan in the creative science park [3] - The park will serve as the company's international headquarters, fostering innovation and collaboration with partners in the audio-visual and cultural industries, and providing incubation space for startup teams [4] - The company aims to attract global talent by offering competitive salaries and a desirable living environment in Changsha, planning to increase recruitment for 2026 graduates to over 500 positions [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43 points, marking a 16-day consecutive rise and reaching a new high not seen in over 10 years [4][6] - Nearly 4000 stocks rose, with 113 stocks hitting the daily limit, and total trading volume exceeded 30 trillion yuan [6][8] - The AI application sector experienced significant growth, leading the market, particularly in cultural media and internet industries, which saw over 5% gains [5][6] Group 2 - The market is transitioning from a phase driven by liquidity expectations to one supported by profit recovery and valuation alignment, although comprehensive profit improvement is still in its early verification stage [7] - The "spring rally" is attributed to improved liquidity conditions, with significant capital inflows from insurance and pension funds, supporting valuation recovery [8][9] - Analysts expect a balanced market structure in 2026, with a focus on sectors like AI applications, commercial aerospace, semiconductor equipment, and new energy, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" priorities [9]

Market Performance - On January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4100 points, with strong performances in sectors such as cultural media, aerospace, and software, leading to significant gains in related ETFs [1][4] - The Entertainment Media ETF (516190) led the market with a closing increase of over 8%, reaching a peak intraday gain of 9.85% [1][4] ETF Fund Flows - From January 5 to January 8, the metal sector attracted significant capital, with the highest net inflows recorded in color metal-themed ETFs [2][10] - The top two ETFs by net inflow during this period were the Color Metal ETF (512400) with a net inflow of 30.47 billion and the Color Metal ETF Fund (516650) with 24.85 billion [10] Sector Highlights - The satellite and aerospace sectors also showed strong performance, with multiple satellite-themed ETFs gaining over 20% in the last five trading days [4][7] - The Aerospace ETF (561660) and other related ETFs recorded gains exceeding 17% over the same period [7] Future Outlook - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to accelerate in 2026, with numerous catalysts anticipated, suggesting that the sector's performance may exceed expectations [6][12] - Investment opportunities are seen in the rocket and satellite manufacturing and launch sectors, as well as ground terminal and operational services, which have a larger market potential [12]