文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） #出口系列 报告 20240603-全球制造业PMI回暖视角下的2024出口——出口扫描系列·机会篇 20240604-全球风险与中国挑战——出口扫描系列·风险篇 20240909-特朗普新关税主张对中国出口影响可能有多大？ —— 出口扫描系列·复盘篇 20240910-若美国挑起新一轮贸易战，与2018年有何异同？ —— 出口扫描系列·对比篇 20250118-找寻出口商品的"稳定之星" —— 出口扫描系列·变局篇 20250511-张瑜：出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法 20250607-不止是"出口" —— 中国出口研判进阶手册 核心观点 本篇作为出口深度思考系列第一篇，旨在帮助出口研究人员解决其通常面对的三个"灵魂"问题：这个月出口增速如何？过去几个月出口中抢进口、转港、异 动怎么"回头"定量？今年出口增速中枢怎么看？为了解答这三个问题，我们遍历中国出口相关的 40 余指标，尝试为每个问题构建最实用的跟踪体系。 报告摘要 一、问题之一：近月预测怎么做？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, with Vietnam's exports to the U.S. facing a minimum 20% tariff, while Vietnam seeks recognition of its market economy status and the lifting of certain high-tech export restrictions from the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - Vietnam is the eighth largest trading partner of the U.S., with a trade surplus exceeding $120 billion in 2024, making it the fourth largest economy with a trade surplus with the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has classified Vietnam as a non-market economy, affecting the calculation of anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese imports. [3] - The recent phone call between Vietnamese General Secretary Su Lin and President Trump was the second discussion following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs." [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, the selling price of the U.S. dollar in Vietnamese banks has increased, and the Vietnamese dong depreciated to its lowest point against the dollar since 1994. [6] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. account for over 20% of its GDP, and despite the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs," the country's export performance in the first half of the year has exceeded expectations, with total exports projected between $215 billion and $217 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 13.8% to 14%. [6] - The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to continue diversifying export markets to sustain growth. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Vietnam are reportedly close to reaching a trade framework that imposes tariffs based on the proportion of foreign components in products exported to the U.S. [1] Summary by Categories Tariff Structure - Products with a high proportion of foreign components (up to 20% or more) will face tariffs around 20% or higher [1] - Products with a lower proportion of foreign components will see slightly reduced tax rates [1] - Products entirely sourced from Vietnam will be subject to the lowest tax rate, potentially around the current standard rate of 10% [1]

Group 1: Export Growth Predictions - The current month’s export growth rate is showing marginal weakness but remains resilient, with the monitoring of port container throughput being the most practical high-frequency indicator[2] - The global manufacturing PMI from JPMorgan indicates a continued weakening in overall trade demand, with the PMI dropping below the neutral line in May[3] - The export volume is expected to continue with a strong price but weak price structure, as indicated by the PPI trends[4] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - China’s "excess" exports from March to May amounted to approximately $50.4 billion, representing about 17% of the average export value for the first five months of the year[5] - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in imports, with an estimated excess of $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports[6] - The transfer port trade ratio is estimated to be between 41% and 58.7%, indicating a notable shift in trade patterns[8] Group 3: Annual Export Forecasts - The annual export growth rate is projected to range from -5% to 0%, depending on the occurrence of systemic risks[9] - Global trade demand is expected to decline, with the WTO predicting a decrease in global trade volume growth to -0.2% for 2025, which is 3 percentage points lower than previous forecasts[10] - The risk of export transfer is monitored through various indicators, with the gap between U.S. import growth and Chinese export growth widening significantly in the first quarter[11]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai business community believes that trade negotiations are unlikely to conclude quickly, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade relations [1] Group 1: Trade Outlook - Exports are expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, reflecting a significant downturn in trade performance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - There is a call for the Bank of Thailand to lower the benchmark interest rate to manage the exchange rate of the Thai baht, suggesting concerns over currency stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro has recently strengthened against the dollar, surpassing the 1.17 mark, reaching a three-year high, which presents a significant opportunity for companies engaged in foreign trade to increase profit margins through currency exchange [1][3]. Group 1: Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate - As of June 30, 2025, the euro has broken through the 1.17 level against the dollar, marking the highest point since September 2021, with an annual increase of over 10% [3]. - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (projected at 60 basis points) and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with a critical date on July 9 [3]. - Institutions like UBS and HSBC predict a bullish outlook for the euro, targeting 1.20 by the end of the year, which could result in an additional 2.2%-2.5% increase in revenue for orders settled in euros compared to those in dollars [3]. Group 2: Strategies for Euro Settlement - Companies are advised to prioritize euro settlements when negotiating new orders, clearly indicating "EUR pricing" in quotes [4]. - For existing dollar-denominated contracts, firms should negotiate to switch to euro settlements, potentially offering discounts to facilitate this change [4]. - For larger order amounts, it is recommended to use "cap and floor" options to hedge against potential currency reversal risks [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Market Trends - Institutions forecast a long-term bullish trend for the euro, although short-term corrections may occur; thus, companies should be cautious of blindly chasing profits [4]. - It is crucial to monitor the July 9 tariff decision, as any tariffs imposed by Trump on the EU could lead to a sharp decline in the euro to around 1.10, necessitating preemptive planning [4]. - Companies should avoid "naked exposure" to currency fluctuations, especially given the rapid appreciation of the euro, and consider retaining some dollar income to naturally hedge against double currency losses [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the economic and financial data for June 2025, which serves as a "report card" for the effectiveness of policies in the first half of the year and a "decision anchor" for policy - setting in the second half. It predicts various economic indicators and analyzes the factors influencing these indicators [1][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Added Value - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.0%. The production PMI in June rose 0.3 pct to 51.0%, entering the expansion range, and the procurement volume index increased significantly. High - frequency data shows that the operating rate of key industries mostly rebounded, indicating stable and positive production operations [2][14][21]. 2. Social Retail Sales - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.2%. The service industry PMI in June slightly declined to 50.1% but remained in the expansion range. Real - estate sales were weak, pressuring post - real - estate cycle consumption. Automobile sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the "trade - in" policy is expected to further release consumption potential [3][25][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - Expected cumulative year - on - year growth in June is 3.7%. In infrastructure, the cumulative year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment may rebound, with the construction industry PMI rising to 52.8%, the asphalt plant operating rate increasing, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerating. In real estate, investment growth remained weak, with new home sales improving month - on - month but still weak year - on - year, and land transaction area below the seasonal level. In manufacturing, investment may remain basically flat, with domestic demand improving but external demand weak, and the business expectation index declining [4][30][35]. 4. Trade 4.1 Exports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 4.2%. The Geneva Agreement may boost exports to the US in June, and exports to Europe are expected to remain stable. However, the global manufacturing PMI continued to decline and remained in the contraction range, indicating weak external demand overall. The export growth rate is expected to decline slightly [37][40]. 4.2 Imports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 1.0%. Import demand rebounded after the tariff suspension in May and further increased in June. Although the export container price increased in June, the import price remained low. The import growth rate is expected to rise slightly from a low level [5][45]. 5. Inflation 5.1 CPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 0.04%. In June, pork prices fluctuated within a narrow range, while vegetable prices rebounded. Considering the increase in oil prices and the low - base effect, the CPI year - on - year may turn positive [6][50][51]. 5.2 PPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 3.0%. In June, most commodity prices rebounded, including industrial products, crude oil, natural gas, and non - ferrous metals, which had a positive impact on the PPI. The year - on - year decline in PPI is expected to narrow marginally [54][55]. 6. GDP - Expected year - on - year growth in the second quarter is 5.3%. Since the second quarter, the economy and finance have shown a moderate recovery. The manufacturing PMI from April to June was in the contraction range, and most economic indicators declined in May except for social retail sales. Considering the historical pattern of GDP seasonally - adjusted quarter - on - quarter decline in the second quarter, the economic growth in the second quarter is expected to decline slightly quarter - on - quarter but reach about 5.3% year - on - year [7][64]. 7. Social Financing and Credit 7.1 Credit - Expected new credit in June is 232 billion yuan. June is a traditional large - credit month, but considering the low and stable bill rates, the probability of a significant and unexpected increase in new credit is low. The report also analyzes the new credit in different sectors, including enterprises, residents, bill financing, and non - bank loans [8][67][80]. 7.2 Social Financing - Expected new social financing in June is 4.1 trillion yuan, with the corresponding year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock expected to be 8.9%. The report analyzes the components of new social financing, including government bond net financing, corporate bond net financing, and non - standard financing [8][82][90].

Core Insights - The trade relationship between Guangdong and Hong Kong has significantly strengthened, with Guangdong's exports and imports to Hong Kong showing substantial growth compared to 1997 levels [1][2] Group 1: Trade Volume and Growth - In 2024, Guangdong's total trade with Hong Kong is projected to reach 1.14 trillion yuan, a 3.1 times increase from 1997, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% [1] - In the first five months of this year, Guangdong's trade with Hong Kong amounted to 470.77 billion yuan, representing a 7.8% increase year-on-year, outpacing the overall trade growth rate of Guangdong by 3.8 percentage points [1] - Exports to Hong Kong reached 445.28 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%, while imports totaled 25.49 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 31.1% [1] Group 2: Trade Structure - The structure of trade methods is favorable, with general trade accounting for 28.2% of Guangdong's exports to Hong Kong, showing a growth of 7.8% [1] - Processing trade accounted for 41.4% of the total, with a slight increase of 0.4%, while bonded logistics saw a notable growth of 19.9%, increasing its share to 29.9% [1] Group 3: Market Participants - In the first five months, private enterprises in Guangdong contributed 227.73 billion yuan to trade with Hong Kong, growing by 11.4% and accounting for 48.4% of the total trade [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises recorded 220.29 billion yuan in trade, a growth of 1.2%, while state-owned enterprises contributed 14.68 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% [2] Group 4: Key Export and Import Products - Major export products include electrical and electronic components, with exports of 333.7 billion yuan, representing 74.9% of total exports to Hong Kong, and a growth of 3.7% [2] - Notable growth was observed in exports of electronic components (128.89 billion yuan, +15.7%), computers and parts (67.12 billion yuan, +10.1%), and electrical equipment (21.33 billion yuan, +26.3%) [2] - Key imports from Hong Kong included gold (19.65 billion yuan, +40.3%), consumer goods (2.32 billion yuan, +2.4%), and horses (640 million yuan, with no previous imports recorded) [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong's import and export to Hong Kong reached 1.14 trillion yuan in 2024, a 3.1 times increase since 1997, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% [1] - In the first five months of this year, Guangdong's trade with Hong Kong amounted to 470.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, outpacing the overall import and export growth of Guangdong by 3.8 percentage points [1] Trade Performance - Exports from Guangdong to Hong Kong totaled 445.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, while imports were 25.49 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 31.1% [1] - Guangdong remains the largest trade province for mainland China's trade with Hong Kong, accounting for 50% of the total import and export value [1] - Hong Kong is the second-largest trading partner for Guangdong, representing 12.6% of the province's total trade [1] Trade Structure and Market Dynamics - The structure of trade has improved, with growth observed in general trade, processing trade, and bonded logistics imports and exports [1] - The market participants are stable, with growth in imports and exports from private enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises, and state-owned enterprises [1] Key Export and Import Products - Major export products include electronic components, computers and their parts, and electrical equipment, all showing positive growth in export value [1] - Gold and horses are the primary drivers of Guangdong's imports from Hong Kong, with a significant year-on-year increase in import value [1]

Core Insights - The trade volume through the Friendship Pass port from January to May reached 2.604 million tons, valued at 237.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 27.7% respectively, indicating a robust growth in import and export activities [1] - The port serves as a vital land passage between China and ASEAN, with a significant increase in cross-border vehicles transporting exported machinery and imported fruits [1] Trade Performance - Exports through the Friendship Pass port totaled 1.926 million tons, valued at 171.91 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.1% and 38.2% year-on-year [1] - Major exported goods include electromechanical products worth 136.5 billion yuan, which saw a 56% increase, accounting for 79.4% of total exports [1] - Imports reached 678,000 tons, valued at 65.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.4% and 6.3% respectively [1] - Key imported items include mobile display screens and microprocessor components, with fruits imported valued at 4.86 billion yuan, of which durian accounted for 3.38 billion yuan [1] Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN countries amounted to 235.11 billion yuan, growing by 28%, constituting 99.1% of the total trade value through the port [2] - Stable growth in trade with major partners such as Vietnam and Thailand has been observed [2] Efficiency Improvements - The increase in trade volume is attributed to enhanced customs clearance efficiency, with the implementation of smart regulatory measures and optimization of the "Smart Logistics Control Platform" [2] - The customs authority has improved the efficiency of the entire clearance process by 45% and inspection platform turnover by 35% [2] - The peak season for imported fruits from Southeast Asia has heightened the demand for timely customs clearance, with companies utilizing mobile apps for real-time tracking of vehicle and cargo status [2] Vehicle Traffic - From January to May, the number of vehicles passing through the Friendship Pass port reached 356,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [3] - The daily traffic through the Friendship Pass channel has repeatedly broken historical records in May [3]