最近看俄乌那边能源对抗的新闻，越看越觉得头大，不只是袭击本身麻烦，连后续的信息都乱成一锅 粥，今天就聊聊从最开始的信息乌龙到后面的连锁反应。 先说说最让人摸不着头脑的信息战，乌克兰军方在袭击当天就说了这事，可一开口就错了俩关键信息， 一会说袭击的是世界最大核电站，一会又把俄罗斯的奥伦堡州说是自己的领土。 这哪是简单的口误啊？在双方对着干的背景下，这么说更像是故意的，模糊目标到底是啥、地点在哪， 其实就是想干扰判断，让俄罗斯那边不好快速回应。 而俄罗斯这边，麻烦也不小，之前国内燃料就不够，联邦反垄断局都被逼得给加油站定了最高限价，现 在气厂又出问题，能源供应链更紧张了，后续老百姓的能源保障都可能受影响。 可接下来的澄清也没让事情变简单，俄罗斯奥伦堡州州长出来说，确实是工厂车间着火了，俄气公司的 设施也受损了。 但《基辅独立报》马上就说，没法核实俄罗斯说的受损程度和细节，这种你说你的，我说我的的情况， 在现在的冲突里太常见了，两边都有自己的消息渠道。 可偏偏没有中立的第三方能实时查证，咱们普通人想搞清楚真相，真得费老大劲，我觉得这比袭击本身 还危险，信息一乱，大家对事件的判断就容易偏，让矛盾从能源设施扩散。 被袭 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that New Natural Gas (603393) announced a government subsidy of 109,270,780.67 yuan related to revenue from the Mabi block, received by its subsidiary Asia America Continental Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd. on October 20, 2025 [1]

Core Points - The EU Council has agreed to support a plan to ban imports of Russian natural gas starting January 1, 2028, due to the weaponization of gas supplies by Russia [1][3] - The EU remains the largest importer of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), having purchased nearly €5 billion worth in the first half of 2025, an increase of €1 billion compared to the same period last year [1] - Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU countries opposing the ban, citing concerns over energy security and the challenges of finding alternative gas sources [3][4] Summary by Sections Ban Implementation - The first phase of the ban will start on January 1, 2026, with a grace period for existing contracts: short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025, can be fulfilled until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts can continue until January 1, 2028 [3] - The proposed regulation is part of the EU's REPowerEU roadmap aimed at ending dependency on Russian energy [3] Financial Implications - The ban is expected to significantly reduce Russia's energy revenue, which has been used to fund military actions against Ukraine, potentially decreasing revenue by billions of euros [3] Member State Responses - Estonia's Foreign Minister welcomed the agreement, emphasizing that it sends a clear message that invaders have no place in the European energy market [3] - Hungary's Foreign Minister criticized the plan, arguing it undermines energy security and disregards the specific needs of landlocked countries [4] Monitoring and Compliance - The EU will implement a pre-authorization system for gas imports, requiring non-Russian gas to submit information five days in advance, while Russian gas must be submitted at least one month in advance [5] - A monitoring mechanism will be established to prevent Russian gas from being rerouted to other markets through Europe [4][5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3900-point mark, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] - The transition from low trading volume to increased volume suggests a potential bottoming out and a demand for upward rebound [2] Trading Volume Analysis - The market shifted from a trading volume of 1 trillion in the morning to 1 trillion in the afternoon, reflecting a robust market response [1] - Despite the increase in volume, it remains below the previous day's 2 trillion, indicating that funds are still hesitant [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks showed notable activity, suggesting that the market is gradually accepting the low support levels and engaging in a rebound [2] - The emergence of the "deep earth economy" concept, encompassing sectors like coal, natural gas, and industrial equipment, has provided a reasonable expectation for growth in these areas [3] Future Outlook - The market may experience high-level consolidation and fluctuations as it approaches the 3900-point threshold, indicating a cautious approach is warranted [2] - The potential for new concepts or developments in the technology sector could further stimulate market interest and investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has agreed to gradually stop importing natural gas from Russia by January 2028, with a complete ban on new contracts starting from January 1, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Proposal Details - The EU Council approved a proposal to phase out Russian natural gas imports, which requires further approval from the European Parliament [1]. - Existing contracts will have a transition period, allowing short-term contracts to last until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts must end by January 1, 2028 [1]. Group 2: Impact on Member States - Hungary's Foreign Minister expressed concerns that the proposal would severely undermine Hungary's energy security [1]. Group 3: Current Import Status - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU has significantly reduced pipeline imports of Russian natural gas, although some countries have increased imports of Russian liquefied natural gas via maritime routes [1]. - Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for approximately 13% of the EU's total imports, valued at over €15 billion annually [1].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects from previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon, alongside strengthening La Niña signals [1] Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The anticipated colder winter may lead to a potential natural gas shortage, resulting in a surge in natural gas consumption and an increase in both wholesale and retail prices [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will remain the preferred investment target for natural gas in China due to reforms in wholesale natural gas pricing, decreasing import costs, retail participation, and structural demand growth [1] - The company's natural gas business, which includes exploration and production, distribution, and pipelines, is viewed positively by Morgan Stanley [1]

Group 1 - Ukraine has targeted the Novokubyshevsk oil refinery and the Orenburg gas processing plant, which have processing capacities of 4.9 million tons and 45 billion cubic meters per year, respectively [1] - The attacks on Russian energy facilities have been frequent, with five major facilities attacked this week and a total of 19 facilities targeted in the last three months [7][11] - The Ukrainian military has reportedly reduced Russian refining capacity by approximately 27% to 30% through these strikes [11] Group 2 - The attacks have led to significant fuel supply issues in Russia, affecting 68 out of 83 regions, with severe restrictions on fuel purchases in key oil-producing areas [14] - In the city of Surgut, which houses major oil fields, there is a complete lack of fuel available for residents [14] - Russia's electricity system is facing a systemic crisis with a power shortfall of 25 gigawatts, approximately 9% of its needs, exacerbated by aging infrastructure and sanctions [17] Group 3 - The Russian military has been able to inflict significant damage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure using missiles and drones, highlighting a disparity in destructive capabilities [5] - Ukrainian forces are relying on self-made suicide drones, which, while effective, cannot match the power of true cruise missiles [7] - The ongoing conflict has created a challenging environment for both Ukrainian and Russian energy sectors, with both sides facing substantial operational pressures [22]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its subsidiary, Asia America Continental Coalbed Methane Co., received a government subsidy of 109 million yuan related to revenue from the Mabi block, which will be recognized in the current profit and loss after deducting value-added tax [1] Group 1 - The government subsidy received amounts to 109 million yuan [1] - The subsidy will be recognized in the current financial results after a 9% value-added tax deduction [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a total of 93 stocks hitting the daily limit up on October 21, with notable performances from coal and combustible ice concept stocks [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Day count of limit-up stocks includes: Dayou Energy with 6 consecutive limit-ups in coal mining, and Shenke Co. and Deshi Co. both achieving 2 consecutive limit-ups in the combustible ice sector [1] - Other notable stocks include ST Zhongdi and Yingxin Development in real estate with 3 and 2 consecutive limit-ups respectively, and Xianfeng Electronics in natural gas with 3 consecutive limit-ups [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The combustible ice concept is gaining traction, as evidenced by the performance of Shenke Co. and Deshi Co. [1] - Coal mining remains strong with Dayou Energy leading the sector with 6 consecutive limit-ups, indicating robust investor interest [1]

人民财讯10月21日电，新天然气（603393）10月21日公告，10月20日，子公司亚美大陆煤层气有限公司 从合作方收到与收益相关的马必区块政府补助1.09亿元。此次从合作方收到的政府补助在扣除增值税 (税率9%)后一次性计入当期损益。 ...