家得宝（Home Depot）于上周二公布最新财报。图片来源：David Paul Morris—Bloomberg/Getty Images 出于对经济和利率的担忧，家得宝的顾客们正搁置大型家居装修项目，转而专注于小型项目。 家得宝首席执行官泰德·德克尔（Ted Decker）在上周二的财报电话会议中表示，消费者或许会重新开始 刷墙、修整庭院，但不会着手推进大型家居装修项目。 麦克菲尔对《华尔街日报》表示，消费者并未取消厨房改造、浴室升级这类需贷款支持的项目，但"受 整体经济形势不确定性，以及利率上升推高借贷成本的影响，他们仍在推迟大型项目"。 美联储为抑制通胀采取一系列举措后，利率始终处于高位。自2024年底以来，美联储将利率稳定维持在 4.25%至4.5%的区间内，不过部分人士正密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在即将召 开的杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的发言，以期捕捉降息信号。与此同时，经济学家们愈发频繁地发出 警告，称低增长与高通胀并存的滞胀威胁加剧。7月同比通胀率涨幅约为2.7%，就业市场面临的威胁也 在持续升级。 尽管近期房地产市场增速放缓——这意味着房屋交易前后的家装 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a mass withdrawal of Western companies like Nike and Apple from Russia, resulting in significant disruptions to local supply chains and creating a substantial gap in the consumer goods market [1] - The Russian e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a 41% increase in sales to reach 9 trillion rubles in 2024, following a 28% growth in 2023 [1][2] - The weak foundation of Russia's light industry has made it heavily reliant on imports for clothing, home appliances, and daily necessities, creating a strong demand for cost-effective Chinese products [1] E-commerce Growth - Ozon, one of Russia's largest e-commerce platforms, reported a GMV of 2.875 trillion rubles in 2024, marking a 64% year-on-year increase [3] - The Russian e-commerce sector is supported by government policies that encourage its development, including tax incentives and streamlined approval processes [2] Electronics Market - The demand for electronic products, particularly smartphones and smart wearables, is rapidly increasing in Russia, with Chinese brands dominating the market [4] - Xiaomi holds a 21% market share in the smartphone sector, while Huawei's sales grew by 39%, and Tecno captured 16% of the market [4] Baby Products Market - The demand for baby products remains strong in Russia, driven by government initiatives promoting childbirth [7][10] - Basic childcare items such as strollers and cribs are seeing high sales on platforms like Ozon, with a stable growth outlook due to ongoing fertility policies [10] Automotive Sector - In 2024, Russia accounted for a record 17% of China's passenger car exports, with a 30.5% increase in automotive supply to Russia, totaling $15.2 billion [11] - Chinese automotive brands, including Great Wall, Chery, and Geely, are expanding their presence in the Russian market, with Chinese brands dominating the top five rankings [11] Pet Products Market - The Russian pet market was valued at approximately $3.72 billion in 2022, with a projected annual growth rate exceeding 5.4% from 2023 to 2028 [13] - Over 60% of pet food is imported, indicating a significant opportunity for growth in this sector [13] Gardening Products Market - The gardening category is experiencing explosive growth as Russians engage in seasonal gardening activities, leading to increased sales of gardening tools and supplies [16] Trade Relations - In 2024, the total trade volume between China and Russia reached $244.8 billion, a 1.9% increase from the previous year, with Chinese exports to Russia growing by 4.1% [20] - The relatively low competition in the Russian market and the underdeveloped brand loyalty present opportunities for new entrants, particularly for Chinese sellers [20]