2月2日，2026年春运正式启动。 当日5时23分，铁路上海站2026年春运首趟临客列车G4021次临时旅客列车从上海虹桥站始发开往贵阳 北站，载着204名旅客踏上春运返乡路。该趟列车沿途停靠杭州东、金华、南昌西、长沙南等站，随车 旅客目的地多为杭州、凯里、贵阳等地，这也是今年春运长三角首趟高铁临时旅客列车。 站 供图 铁路上海 智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）记者从铁路上海站获悉，2月2日该站预计发送旅客41.6万人次。其中上海 站11.1万人次，上海南站5.2万人次，上海虹桥站21.6万人次，上海松江站3.3万人次。为满足旅客出行需 求，车站增开至安徽、江苏、云贵等方向列车18列。 当天，在上海虹桥火车站出发层心尚服务工作室前，一场主题为"'送福暖途·接福归途'暨'我们的节日·欢 乐中国年'迎新送福活动"正在举行，书法家们挥毫泼墨，将一幅幅寓意吉祥的春联和"福"字赠予旅客。 蔡阿姨 （右）与外孙女在现场拿到墨迹未干的福字和春联。智通财经记者 俞凯 图 "没想到赶火车还能收到手写春联，年味一下子浓了。"即将回辽宁沈阳的蔡阿姨在现场拿到墨迹未干的 福字和春联，直言很开心。只见春联上写着："家和人旺春 ...

01 昨天吃晚餐时，一向不太关心国际政治的老婆突然放下筷子问了我个事： 伊朗美国真要打起来，那下周咱们卡塔尔多哈转机飞纽约的航班还稳吗？ 我原本想习惯性地回一句，哎，没那么夸张，卡塔尔离战场远着呢，可话到嘴边又咽了回去。 看着她一脸严肃地出示手机屏幕上满天飞的战云预警和航班改线、停航通知，我只能实话实说，不能说毫无影 响，只能说关系很大。 这两天，但凡你打开社交媒体，搜索中东转机或者春节欧美长线出境游，满屏幕都是国内春节长线出境游客的自 我心理建设和焦灼询问。 对于很多提前半年就做好了详细攻略、甚至把每一分钟行程都填进表格里的J人来说，这场突如其来的黑天鹅事 件，正让他们的春节假期变得像一场豪赌。 小红书上，有人晒出了自己长达十页的旅行计划，从酒店预订到当地向导，每一个环节都扣得死死的。 可现在，最核心的航班成了最大变量，这种面对不确定性时的无力感，在春节前的出境游市场里迅速蔓延。 按照旅界不完全统计，截至2月1日，全球已经有大约15家主要航空公司对中东航线做出了调整，名单里既有汉 莎、法航、英航等老牌欧洲航司，也有新加坡航空等亚洲航司。 | 航空公司 | 调整详情 | 持续时间/恢复情况 | 来源引用 | ...

Core Viewpoint - China Eastern Airlines (00670) is expected to report a profit of approximately RMB 200 million to 300 million for the fiscal year 2025, but is also projected to incur a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion [1] Company Summary - The company anticipates a total transportation turnover of 27.981 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of nearly 150 million people in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 10.82% and 6.68% respectively [1] - The expected profit for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 200 million and 300 million, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [1] Industry Summary - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the recovery of international routes for China Eastern Airlines is ahead of its peers, with recovery rates exceeding those of 2019 [1] - The strong growth in inbound and outbound demand at the main hub in Shanghai is expected to benefit the company significantly from the increasing demand for international flights [1] - The company has avoided operational inefficiencies and cost increases by not having aircraft equipped with the PW1100 engine, which are currently grounded for maintenance [1] - The overall operational situation of the company has improved significantly, supported by favorable external factors such as oil prices and exchange rates [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The airline industry is showing signs of overall operational improvement, with a projected passenger transport volume of 770 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3] - Aircraft utilization is expected to average 9.1 hours, an increase of 0.2 hours year-on-year, while the passenger load factor is projected to be 85.1%, up by 1.8 percentage points [3] Company Performance Highlights Hainan Airlines - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 900 million to 1.1 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 645 million to 1.045 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.602 billion to 1.802 billion yuan [1] China Southern Airlines - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the year is between 800 million to 1 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 130 million to 190 million yuan, also indicating a turnaround from losses [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 1.307 billion to 1.507 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.233 billion to 1.293 billion yuan [1] China Eastern Airlines - Projected net loss attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 2.7 billion to 3.3 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses year-on-year [1] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 3.403 billion to 3.903 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 4.105 billion to 4.705 billion yuan [1] Air China - Projected net loss attributable to shareholders for the year is between 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 1.9 billion to 2.7 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses year-on-year [2] - Estimated Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders is between 3.17 billion to 3.77 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 3.544 billion to 4.344 billion yuan [2] Key Insights - The increase in income tax expenses for China Eastern Airlines and Air China is attributed to the reversal of deferred tax assets from prior deductible losses, impacting their net profit figures [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a passenger volume of 95 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with an estimated 780,000 flights to be operated, also up by 5% [4] Additional Considerations - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is noted, with the exchange rate at 6.97 as of January 30, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.82% [4] - The long-term outlook for the airline industry remains positive due to slowing supply growth, high load factors, and expectations of reduced competition, suggesting potential for profit improvement [4] - Risks include macroeconomic downturns, rising oil prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel rush in China is set to begin on February 2, with transportation departments preparing for an expected 9.5 billion person trips over the next 40 days [1] Group 1: Train Services - A total of 64.61 million train tickets have been sold from January 19 to February 1, 2026, indicating strong demand for travel during the Spring Festival [1] - The national railway is increasing capacity, with a maximum of over 14,000 passenger trains scheduled per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [3] - The Beijing Railway Bureau anticipates sending 41.47 million passengers during the Spring Festival, a 2.5% increase from last year, with popular destinations including Harbin, Shenyang, and Changchun [6] Group 2: Road Transportation - The average daily flights during the Spring Festival are expected to reach 19,400, a 5% increase year-on-year, to meet travel demand [5] - Self-driving trips are projected to account for around 80% of travel, with highway traffic expected to reach historical highs [5] - To support electric vehicle charging needs, mobile emergency charging devices will be deployed, and drivers can use the "e路畅通" app to check charging station availability [5] Group 3: Local Measures - In Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, measures have been implemented to ensure safe and smooth travel, including the establishment of priority lanes for vulnerable passengers at train stations [9] - Local traffic management has intensified enforcement and monitoring on major highways to ensure safe and orderly traffic flow during the travel rush [11] - In Jiangxi Province, several highway expansion projects have been completed to enhance traffic efficiency and support the increased travel demand during the Spring Festival [13]

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of a new check-in service by China Eastern Airlines at Beijing West Railway Station, aimed at enhancing the travel experience for passengers heading to Daxing Airport [1][3]. - The service will allow passengers to complete check-in, baggage handling, and security processes at the railway station, facilitating a seamless transition to air travel [1][3]. - Currently, there are 24 direct trains daily from Beijing West Station to Daxing International Airport, with nearly a thousand passengers utilizing this service [3]. Group 2 - The new check-in service is powered by China Eastern Airlines' self-developed GWS digital terminal, which aims to improve travel efficiency by allowing passengers to check in and manage their luggage before arriving at the airport [3][5]. - Passengers can purchase combined train and flight tickets through China Eastern's official platform, simplifying the booking process and enhancing convenience [5]. - The "air-rail intermodal" service is expected to expand its reach to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and beyond, providing efficient travel options for passengers [5].

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

国铁上海局杭州站杭州东站值班站长顾焰燚：我们将动态跟踪旅客出行及增开列车情况，杭州东 站、杭州西站将适时与杭州站、杭州南站同步启动通宵运营模式。及时协调地方交通部门做好旅客接驳 运输工作，采取延长地铁运营服务时间、加大公交运力供给等多种方式，共同保障到达旅客接驳"最后 一公里"。 央广网北京2月2日消息（记者郭淼）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，2026 年春运今天（2日）零点正式启动，交通部门全面提升运力，保障群众出行。 2026年春运今天开始，40天里跨区域人员流动将达95亿人次。国铁集团方面表示，自1月19日春运 火车票开始发售至昨天16时，已累计发售春运期间火车票6461万张。铁路部门加大客运能力投放。积极 挖掘运输潜力，在京广、京沪、沪昆、京哈等主要高铁干线通道增开夜间高铁。 春运期间，自驾出行仍将是主体方式，占比约八成。新能源车出行总量有望创历史同期新高，达 3.8亿辆次。交通部门在全国高速服务区会新增超过1万个充电枪，其中四分之一以上都为大功率。 全国民航预计春运期间日均保障航班19400班，同比增长5%。三亚凤凰国际机场T3航站楼昨天投入 试运行，保障进出海南岛旅客顺利出行。 ...

Core Insights - The transportation sector in China is expected to maintain stable economic operations with growth in various metrics by 2025, including an increase in freight volume, port throughput, and cross-regional passenger flow [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - The total freight volume is projected to reach 587 billion tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2] - Port cargo throughput is expected to reach 183.4 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while container throughput is anticipated to grow by 6.8% to 35 million TEUs [2][3] - Cross-regional passenger flow is forecasted to hit 668.6 billion person-times, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - Transportation fixed asset investment is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, with significant allocations to railways (901.5 billion yuan), highways and waterways (over 2.6 trillion yuan), and civil aviation (120 billion yuan) [3] - The completion rate of the national comprehensive transportation network framework has surpassed 90%, with over 2,000 kilometers of new high-speed railways and approximately 8,000 kilometers of new highways added [1] Group 3: Future Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant progress in building a strong transportation nation, with plans for further integration, safety enhancements, smart upgrades, and green transformations in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][8] - The Ministry of Transport aims to establish 100 forward-looking scientific and technological innovation platforms by 2026, focusing on key areas such as artificial intelligence and transportation [6][7] - The new platforms will enhance the capabilities of the transportation sector, fostering collaboration between academia, research institutions, and enterprises to drive innovation and address technological challenges [7][8]