Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]

上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG,丙烯 02 聚酯芳烃 1、PTA,MEG,对二甲苯 1、LLDPE 2、PP 3、甲醇 煤化工及烯烃 国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 05 CONTENTS 2 01 03 04 2、瓶片,短纤 4、尿素 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年11月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供 ...

Group 1: Suspension and Resumption of Trading - Company Gohome China has experienced a short-term continuous rise in stock price, indicating potential market sentiment overheating and irrational speculation risks, leading to a suspension for verification [1] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Heshun Petroleum plans to acquire control of Kuixin Technology, which focuses on integrated circuit IP and Chiplet product development [2] - Electric Investment Energy intends to purchase 100% equity of Baiyinhua Coal Power for 11.149 billion [2] - Pangu Intelligent aims to gain control of Zhongcheng Petrochemical to accelerate its strategic layout in the lubricating oil sector [2] Group 3: Equity Transfer - Heshun Petroleum's actual controller and concerted parties plan to transfer 6% of the company's shares through an agreement [3] - Fudan Microelectronics' Guosheng Investment intends to acquire 12.99% of shares held by Fuxin Fangao, becoming the largest shareholder [4] Group 4: Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Rongbai Technology will become the primary supplier of sodium battery cathode materials for CATL, with a commitment to purchase no less than 60% of its total procurement volume annually [5] - Mango Super Media plans to invest 475.2 million in the restructuring of Zhangjiajie Tourism Group [6] - Putailai intends to invest 2.5 billion in a membrane coating integration project [7] - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical has received approval for clinical trials of its oral small molecule growth hormone secretagogue GS3-007a, with no similar products currently on the market [7] - Samsung Medical's subsidiary is expected to win a national grid procurement project worth approximately 168 million [8] - Industrial Fulian's GB300 achieved mass production in Q3, collaborating with clients on CPO and 1.6T switch development and securing orders [9] - Yijiahe's next-generation embodied intelligent humanoid robot has entered the field application testing phase [10] - Dongxin Technology is working on customer sampling and testing optimization for its first graphics rendering GPU chip "7G100" [11] - Chipsea Technology's EC chip has entered AMD's supplier list [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to mutual attacks on energy facilities, causing disruptions in Russian oil exports and supporting oil prices. Recent data shows WTI crude futures prices increased by 0.17% and Brent crude futures by 0.85% during the week of November 7-14, 2025 [6]. - The geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over Russian oil export disruptions, particularly with the New Novorossiysk port's daily export capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels, which accounts for 2% of global supply [6]. - OPEC's latest report indicates a decrease in oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, with a daily output of 43.02 million barrels in October, down by 73,000 barrels from the previous month. However, due to unexpected increases in U.S. oil production, the global market has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a structural oversupply [6]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil surplus could reach a record level of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, posing significant downward pressure on medium to long-term oil prices [6]. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with the IMF noting a decline in GDP growth expectations for the fourth quarter below the previously predicted 1.9% [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices and exports, with significant military actions affecting energy infrastructure [6][7]. - Current oil market dynamics show a transition from a supply shortage to a surplus, influenced by OPEC production adjustments and U.S. output increases [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The market for popular fluorinated refrigerants, such as R32 and R134a, continues to thrive, with prices stabilizing at high levels due to supply constraints and strong demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in air conditioning production rates towards the end of the year, with expected increases in production of 4.2%, 8.6%, and 34.5% for the months of October to December 2025 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, fluorochemicals, and semiconductor materials. It emphasizes the resilience of major oil companies in the face of price volatility and recommends monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC for their strong earnings potential [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it advises attention to leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - For semiconductor materials, the report notes a positive trend in inventory reduction and a gradual recovery in end-market fundamentals, recommending companies involved in domestic substitution and growth [7].

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, Heilongjiang Province's industrial enterprises produced a total of 327,000 tons of kerosene, representing an 11.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 57.3 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 11.1 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the kerosene production in Heilongjiang Province reached 57,000 tons, showing a 9.6% increase compared to June 2024, but the growth rate was 126.8 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 1.7 percentage points lower than the national average [2] - The kerosene production in Heilongjiang accounted for 1.2% of the national total of 28,139,000 tons in the first half of 2025 and 1.1% of the national total of 5,094,000 tons in June 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The data reflects the performance of large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [6]

Core Insights - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited announced the candidates for the bidding of its comprehensive technical transformation and quality upgrade project, which includes a 200,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit, a 700,000 tons/year catalytic gasoline hydrogenation unit, and a 400,000 tons/year aromatics extraction unit [1][2] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves multiple units: 200,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit, 700,000 tons/year catalytic gasoline hydrogenation unit, and 400,000 tons/year aromatics extraction unit [1] - The announcement was made on November 13, 2025, and the bidding was conducted by Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company [2] Group 2: Company Activities - Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company has invested in 22 enterprises and participated in 25,144 bidding projects [1] - The company holds 65 trademark registrations, 1,332 patents, and 9 copyright registrations, along with 12,789 administrative licenses [1]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Shanghai's industrial enterprises processed a total of 974.1 thousand tons of crude oil, representing an 18.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 16.4 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 19.7 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the crude oil processing volume reached 193.9 thousand tons, showing a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 10.0 percentage points higher than in 2024, but 7.5 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil Processing Volume - Shanghai's crude oil processing volume for the first half of 2025 was 974.1 thousand tons, down 18.1% from 2024 [1] - The processing volume accounted for 2.7% of the national total of 36,161.3 thousand tons [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, the processing volume was 193.9 thousand tons, which is a 1.0% increase compared to June 2024 [2] - This monthly figure represented 3.1% of the national processing volume of 6,224.5 thousand tons for the same month [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that in June 2025, Shandong Province's crude oil processing volume reached 11.298 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, which is 27.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The crude oil processing volume for the first half of 2025 was 68.354 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and the growth rate was 21.4 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] - Shandong Province accounted for approximately 18.2% of the national crude oil processing volume in June 2025, which was 62.245 million tons, and 18.9% of the national total of 361.613 million tons for the first half of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in crude oil processing volume in Shandong Province is significantly higher than the national average, with a 6.9 percentage point advantage in June and an 8.1 percentage point advantage in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The data indicates a strong performance in the oil processing sector within Shandong's industrial enterprises, suggesting potential growth opportunities in the energy sector [1][2]

Core Insights - In June 2025, the petroleum coke production in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region reached 150,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.4% and a growth rate that is 35.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total petroleum coke production was 920,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.8%, with an increase of 34.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Production Statistics - June 2025 petroleum coke production: 150,000 tons, accounting for 5.9% of the national production of 2,549,000 tons [1] - January to June 2025 cumulative petroleum coke production: 920,000 tons, also representing 5.9% of the national total of 15,674,000 tons [1]

Core Points - International Industry (000159) closed at 6.85 yuan on November 14, 2025, up 7.7% from last week's 6.36 yuan [1] - The company's current total market capitalization is 3.293 billion yuan, ranking 60th out of 64 in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4438th out of 5165 in the A-share market [1] Shareholder Changes - As of November 10, 2025, the number of shareholders is 39,200, an increase of 385 from October 31, representing a growth rate of 0.99% [1][3] - The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased from 12,400 to 12,300 shares, with an average holding value of 80,700 yuan [1] Company Announcements - The company announced a guarantee for a subsidiary, providing a joint liability guarantee for a 52 million yuan working capital loan contract with Xinjiang Bank, with a guarantee period extending three years from November 9, 2026 [1] - The total amount of guarantees provided by the company for subsidiaries is 380.0558 million yuan, accounting for 18.79% of net assets, with no overdue guarantees reported [1][3]