策略报告| 投资策略 策略专题 | 如何定位"市场化反内卷"? | 作者 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴鼎达 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524030001 | | | | wukaida@tfzq.com | | | | 核心结论: 孙希民 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524110002 | | | | 我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧重于成本 sunximin@tfzq.com | | | | 调查和价格监测,治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的供给格局配合， 日消零 | | 联系人 | | 我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个方面讨论哪些行业更 wangchengrui@tfzq.com | | | | 具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和存货的历史分位数水平衡量 | | | | 行业的"内卷程度",以上述三个指标是否发生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启 相关报告 | | | | 动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出清的行业。 | | | | 1《投资策略:"对等关税"再 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.17 CNY per share, based on a current price of 7.96 CNY [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expanding its footprint in the chemical industry by acquiring a 60% stake in the fluorochemical company San Aifu, which is among the top 20 in the global fluorochemical industry [4]. - The company has a diversified business model with five core segments: energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services, which collectively form a dual-driven development model of "manufacturing + services" [16][22]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 1.4 billion CNY in 2025, 1.9 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.3 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Huayi Group Co., Ltd., is a large state-controlled listed company primarily engaged in energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services [16][22]. - The company was established in 1957 and has undergone several transformations, including its listing in 2016 [17][18]. - The major shareholder is Shanghai Huayi (Group) Company, holding a 37.65% stake [20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 45.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, marking a new high since 2018 [36]. - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 49.95 billion CNY and 52.79 billion CNY, respectively [5]. - The company maintains a stable debt-to-asset ratio, which has remained between 52% and 58% from 2018 to 2024 [52]. Business Segments - The five core business segments generated revenues of 13.23 billion CNY (advanced materials), 10.94 billion CNY (green tires), 6.91 billion CNY (energy chemicals), 6.43 billion CNY (fine chemicals), and 6.64 billion CNY (chemical services) in 2024 [39][40]. - The advanced materials and green tires segments are significant contributors to the company's profitability, with gross margins of 10.7% and 29.4%, respectively [41]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of San Aifu is expected to enhance the company's revenue and profit contributions significantly, with forecasts indicating a substantial increase in net profits post-acquisition [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The phosphoric iron market is experiencing significant growth in the first half of 2025, with a production increase of 74.2% year-on-year, reaching 1.403 million tons, which is a notable rise compared to the 43.9% growth in 2024 [1]. Group 1: Market Production and Growth - The production of phosphoric iron in the first half of 2025 is 1.403 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 74.2% [1]. - The growth rate in 2025 is significantly higher than the 43.9% increase observed in the entire year of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - Hunan Yuno and Wanrun New Energy are the only two companies with production exceeding 100,000 tons, leading the first tier of producers [3]. - Four companies, including Bangpu Recycling and Zhongwei Xinyang, have production levels above 50,000 tons, placing them in the second tier [3]. Group 3: Capacity Utilization - There is a significant disparity in capacity utilization among companies, with leading companies like Hunan Yuno and Yuntu New Energy showing higher utilization rates [6]. - In the first tier, companies such as Hunan Yuno and Guizhou Yayou are leading in capacity utilization, while several companies in the second tier have utilization rates exceeding 50% [6]. Group 4: Self-Use vs. External Sales - The majority of phosphoric iron produced is for self-use, with the market split being 58% for self-use and 42% for external sales in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Companies like Hunan Yuno and Wanrun New Energy primarily focus on self-use, and the proportion of self-supplied phosphoric iron is on the rise [8].

Core Conclusions - The current anti-involution logic differs from supply-side reforms, focusing more on cost investigation and price monitoring to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises [1] - The report discusses the potential for fundamental improvement in various industries based on three aspects: the degree of "involution," the degree of capacity clearance, and the elasticity of capacity clearance [1][3] - Two categories of benefiting directions are identified: the first category involves industries at the bottom of the cycle with a pressing need for anti-involution, such as photovoltaic equipment and general equipment; the second category includes industries with improved involution levels and high visibility in performance, such as home appliances and chemical raw materials [1][3][28] Industry Analysis - The report identifies three stages of the anti-involution market: the first stage involves expectations catalyzed by pricing policies, the second stage sees price increases in resource products, and the third stage involves high prices stabilizing [2][8] - Industries frequently mentioned in the current anti-involution discussion include photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, energy storage systems, and e-commerce platforms [2][8] - The report uses CAPEX, gross margin, and inventory historical percentiles to measure the degree of "involution" across various industries, revealing that upstream cyclical resource industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals still exhibit high levels of involution [3][9] Benefiting Directions - The first category of benefiting industries is characterized by a pressing demand for anti-involution, being at the cycle bottom with initial signs of capacity clearance and good elasticity, including photovoltaic equipment and general equipment [21][28] - The second category includes industries that have already seen some improvement in involution levels and have high visibility in performance, such as home appliances and chemical raw materials [28][29] - The report emphasizes that the degree of industry concentration and the proportion of state-owned enterprises can influence the speed and elasticity of supply-side clearance, with higher concentration levels leading to quicker responses to policy changes [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, leading to significant arrival pressure in China and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or load - reduction plan in late July [2]. - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry is in a seasonal off - peak period, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. There is still sufficient demand resilience inland, and the inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts showing methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of different regions' spot - main futures, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts are provided to display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [26][34]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows that the total port inventory of methanol is 790,200 tons (+71,300 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory at 454,000 tons (+59,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory at 180,000 tons (+4,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory at 106,000 tons (-6,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.15% (+0.55%). The inland factory inventory is 352,340 tons (-4,560 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 218,000 tons (-10,000 tons). The inland factory's pending orders are 243,119 tons (+21,879 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 113,600 tons (+13,600 tons) [1][2]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest (-280 spread - 3 yuan/ton, +3 yuan/ton), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550 spread - 141 yuan/ton, -1 yuan/ton), etc. [2]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - There are charts showing the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [55][60]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hedge by short - selling the 09 contract at high prices. - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread at high prices. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a relatively mild performance on July 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points and the ChiNext Index rising over 1% [3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market also exhibited a stable performance, with the Hang Seng Index showing little fluctuation [2][15] Individual Stock Performance - Shuangwei New Materials has achieved a "20cm" limit-up for seven consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 250% [1][7] - Lan Sheng Co. has seen a limit-up for five consecutive trading days [10] - Other stocks such as Lisheng Pharmaceutical and Lianfa Co. have experienced limit-up for three consecutive trading days [12] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, comprehensive services, computers, and retail performed well, while public utilities, construction decoration, transportation, and media sectors showed relative weakness [4] Company Announcements - Shuangwei New Materials announced significant stock trading fluctuations, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 105.71, significantly higher than the industry average of 23.78 [9][10] - Lan Sheng Co. reported a P/E ratio of 30.6, also above the industry average of 28.14 [12] - Dechang Motor Holdings announced the establishment of two joint ventures with Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical Co., focusing on humanoid robot solutions and hardware integration [21] Concept and Thematic Performance - Concept sectors such as CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals performed well during the trading session [5] - Blue Ocean Interactive announced the establishment of the "LK Crypto" division to accelerate its Web3 and real-world asset (RWA) strategies, indicating a strong focus on digital assets [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a mild performance on July 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points and the ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1][4]. A-share Market Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3506.94, up 0.09% [5]. - The ChiNext Index reached 2255.36, with a gain of 1.13% [5]. - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87% to 10813.75 [5]. - Notable sectors performing well included telecommunications, electronics, and retail, while public utilities and transportation lagged [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Several stocks experienced consecutive trading halts, with Upway New Materials achieving a 250% cumulative increase over seven trading days [1][9]. - Upway New Materials reported significant trading anomalies, with a closing price of 23.24 yuan per share and a P/E ratio of 105.71, significantly higher than the industry average of 23.78 [11]. - Lansheng Co. also saw a continuous rise, with a warning about potential risks due to rapid price increases [13]. - Other companies like Lisheng Pharmaceutical and Lianfa Co. reported similar trading halts and risk warnings [14]. Hong Kong Market Summary - The Hong Kong market exhibited a stable performance, with the Hang Seng Index at 24534.84, up 0.07% [17]. - Notable gainers included Nongfu Spring and Geely Automobile, while Baidu and New Oriental saw declines [17]. - Blueport Interactive surged over 40% after announcing the establishment of a new division focused on Web3 and digital assets [20]. Corporate Announcements - Dechang Motor Holdings announced the establishment of two joint ventures with Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical Co., focusing on humanoid robot solutions, with a registered capital of 75 million yuan for each venture [23].

Core Insights - The event during the third China International Supply Chain Expo focuses on deepening international cooperation in supply chains between China and Thailand, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries [1][2] - Shandong Province is highlighted as a key player in China's economic landscape, with a robust industrial system and significant trade achievements, including a total revenue of nearly 12 trillion RMB and an export value exceeding 2 trillion RMB in 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Trade and Economic Cooperation - The bilateral trade between Shandong and Thailand reached 74.6 billion RMB in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2] - Shandong has invested over 480 million USD in 33 enterprises in Thailand, showcasing successful local cooperation [2] - Thailand's exports to Shandong include rubber, fruits, and electrical appliances, while Shandong exports machinery and chemical products to Thailand, indicating a complementary trade relationship [2] Group 2: Industry and Investment Opportunities - Shandong's industrial chain advantages include 19 provincial-level signature industrial chains covering AI, new energy vehicles, and high-end equipment, with a revenue of nearly 11 trillion RMB in 2024 [4] - The production of new energy vehicles in Shandong increased by 145% year-on-year, positioning the province for collaboration in automotive parts and digital technology with Thailand [4] - Thailand is offering competitive tax and non-tax incentives to attract investors, aiming to enhance business viability and streamline operational processes for enterprises [4] Group 3: Event Significance and Participation - The expo serves as a crucial platform for international business connections, with 35% of exhibitors coming from overseas and participation from over 110 international organizations and enterprises [3][5] - The event emphasizes the transition from traditional trade to deep integration of industrial chains between Shandong and Thailand, particularly in emerging sectors like green energy and digital technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company has decided to terminate part of its fundraising projects and redirect the remaining funds to new projects, specifically focusing on the development of PDCLC dimming film products for the automotive sector, in response to changing market conditions and strategic priorities [4][5][17]. Fundraising Overview - The company was approved to issue 6.94 million convertible bonds at a face value of 100 RMB each, raising a total of 694 million RMB, with a net amount of 691.3972 million RMB after deducting issuance costs [1][2]. - The funds were initially intended for various projects, including a photovoltaic encapsulation film project with a total investment of 949.07137 million RMB [3]. Fund Usage Status - As of July 11, 2025, the company has invested 99.9127 million RMB into the photovoltaic encapsulation film project, with a remaining balance of 226.0278 million RMB [3][4]. Reasons for Project Termination - The decision to terminate the photovoltaic encapsulation film project is attributed to a slowdown in industry demand and the need for time to absorb previously expanded capacities, as well as increased competition in the photovoltaic sector [4][5]. - The company aims to concentrate resources on the PDCLC dimming film business, which has shown significant potential for growth and profitability [5][6]. New Project Details - The company plans to invest the remaining 226.0278 million RMB into a new project for the production of 2 million square meters of PDCLC dimming film, with a total investment of 250 million RMB [6][7]. - The PDCLC dimming film is positioned to meet the growing demand in the automotive sector, particularly for smart roof systems in electric vehicles [7][8]. Market Trends and Strategic Focus - The automotive industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, with a projected sales increase of 35.5% in 2024 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and product development to enhance its competitive edge in the automotive materials market [11][12]. Implementation Feasibility - The company has established a strong foundation in polymer materials and has accumulated significant intellectual property, with 170 patents, including 33 invention patents [12][14]. - The strategic shift towards PDCLC technology is expected to enhance the company's market presence and profitability, addressing the declining margins in its photovoltaic film business [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Hoshine Silicon Industry, Ningbo Hoshine Group, plans to transfer 5.08% of its shares to Xiao Xiugan for a total price of 2.634 billion yuan, highlighting the financial difficulties faced by Hoshine Group while indicating Xiao's strong financial capability [2][6][13]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Hoshine Group signed a share transfer agreement with Xiao Xiugan, where the transfer price is set at 43.90 yuan per share, totaling 2.634 billion yuan [3][6]. - The share price at the close on July 16 was 48.71 yuan, indicating a discount of nearly 10% for Xiao's acquisition [6]. - If the transaction is completed, Xiao Xiugan will become the fourth largest shareholder of Hoshine Silicon, holding 5.08% of the shares [7][10]. Group 2: Financial Context - Hoshine Group has indicated a need for funds, having previously signaled financial strain through multiple share pledges to raise liquidity for operational needs [13][15]. - The group and its concerted actions have pledged a total of 451 million shares, representing 48.52% of their holdings and 38.13% of Hoshine Silicon's total share capital [15][16]. - Hoshine Silicon is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from previous profits, primarily due to weak downstream demand in the industrial silicon market [18]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The overall demand in the photovoltaic industry has weakened, leading to a low operating rate for polysilicon and a significant drop in prices for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [18]. - The company has noted a marked decline in sales prices for industrial silicon, exacerbated by a cooling demand in the market [18].