尿素日报 | 2026-01-30 农业备肥跟进 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-29，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -37元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-47元/吨（-8）；江苏基差：-27元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润215元/吨（+20），出口利润 941元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2026-01-29，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-29，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素延续震荡偏强，农业需求跟进，现货成交维持较好行情，春节收单压力较小，后续关注现货价格上方政策指 导价。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a procurement notice by Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd. for various valves, including cutoff valves, drain valves, and ball valves, published on January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The procurement notice is specifically for the purchase of cutoff valves, drain valves, and ball valves [1] - The publication date of the procurement announcement is January 29, 2026 [1] - The announcement is recorded in the Tianyancha database, indicating the company's active engagement in procurement activities [1]

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 1月29日，藏格矿业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司子公司藏格钾肥氯化钾产能 调整至120万吨，不影响伴生碳酸锂的生产。2026年，公司计划生产氯化钾100万吨、碳酸锂11000吨， 产量与过往保持稳定。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：涨幅收窄 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，日内上涨。期货联动的效应尚未结束，现货价格继续 上涨，仍有部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出 厂报价范围多在 1710-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，2 月份 初依然有复产气头装置，目前暂无检修安排，上游装置提供尿素产量充裕，日 产已接近 20.5 万吨附近。本周情绪偏强后，买涨不买跌的心理下，农业经销商 拿货积极，冬腊肥及小麦返青追肥拿货环比增多，但目前临近春节，下游工厂 放假增多，本期复合肥工厂开工负荷下调，环比减少 1.62%，但同比依然偏高 19.34%。库存本期虽继续去化，但变动量极低，随着上游产量的增加，上下游 产销基本平衡，但农需逐渐启动，库存 ...

联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三尿素主力合约 | 2605 | 价格上涨 | 14 | 元至 | 1799 | 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | 元至 | 1760 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 3247 | 手至 | 24.55 | 万手，空头持仓增 | 加 | 6730 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a decrease of over 50% compared to the previous year [1][3] - The primary reason for the expected decline in performance is the substantial drop in the price of urea, which is the company's main product [3] - The company has communicated with its auditing firm regarding the earnings forecast, and there are no discrepancies between the two parties [1][4] Group 2 - The earnings forecast has not undergone a pre-audit by a registered accounting firm [2] - The board of directors will closely monitor the company's operational situation and will issue a revised earnings forecast if there is a significant deviation from the current projections [4] - The data in the earnings forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department, with detailed financial data to be disclosed in the 2025 annual report [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Company") has listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, becoming the first company in Shandong to go public in 2023, with a significant stock price increase of 111.56% on its debut, despite concerns over its declining revenue and rising net profit [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - The Company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new fertilizers and their intermediates, with products including humic acid fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers [3]. - The Company reported a decline in revenue from 26.76 billion yuan in 2022 to an expected 23.63 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit increased from 1.01 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.45 billion yuan in 2024 [3][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the Company achieved revenue of 14.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - Regulatory authorities have raised questions regarding the Company's unusual performance trend of declining revenue coupled with increasing net profit, prompting the Company to explain the reasons behind this discrepancy [3][4]. - The Company attributed the net profit growth to an increase in gross margin and a significant rise in business activities following the removal of uncontrollable factors, despite rising sales and management expenses [4]. Group 3: Market Risks - The Company faces risks related to high customer concentration and intensified industry competition, with a significant portion of its revenue dependent on a few major clients, including China Post Group [5][6]. - The fertilizer market in China has grown from 2,352 billion yuan in 2015 to an expected 3,191 billion yuan by 2025, with a low industry concentration and fierce competition among over 3,000 licensed compound fertilizer manufacturers [6][7]. - The Company has acknowledged the need for continuous product innovation and quality control to maintain its competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Company") has listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, becoming the first company in Shandong to go public in 2023, with a significant stock price increase despite concerns over its financial performance and market risks [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Company has experienced a decline in revenue from 26.76 billion yuan in 2022 to an expected 23.63 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit has increased from 1.01 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.45 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - In the first half of 2025, the Company reported revenue of 14.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan [2]. - The Company attributes the net profit growth to an increase in gross margin and effective management of expenses, despite rising sales and administrative costs [3]. Market Position and Risks - The Company operates in the new fertilizer sector, focusing on products like humic acid fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers, and ranks second in the industry for humic acid compound fertilizer production [2]. - The Company faces high customer concentration risk, with its largest client, China Post Group, accounting for a significant portion of its revenue, which raises concerns about dependency on a few key customers [4]. - The fertilizer industry is characterized by intense competition, with over 3,000 companies holding production licenses, leading to a fragmented market and challenges in maintaining competitive advantage [5][6]. Industry Outlook - The Chinese fertilizer market is projected to grow from 2,964 billion yuan in 2021 to 3,191 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8% [4]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by stricter environmental regulations and a focus on product innovation, which may impact the Company's ability to compete effectively [5][6].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：情绪扰动，偏强运行 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素日内冲高回落，整体偏强。现货行情点燃，部分工厂出现停售现 象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1690-1740 元/ 吨。基本面来看，2 月份初依然有复产气头装置，目前暂无检修安排，上游装 置提供尿素产量充裕，日产已接近 20.5 万吨附近。天气温暖，农需启动节奏同 比偏快，本期复合肥工厂开工继续增加，目前已同比往年偏高，主要今年过年 时间略晚，工厂放假时间未到，同时为了保障春耕，开工连续居高，但受到磷 钾肥成本支撑下，复合肥价格拉锯，下游拿货不足，市场价格倒挂，不排除利 润挤压后的降负荷，工厂缺乏追高情绪，板厂等工业下游逐渐放假中。库存本 期虽继续去化，但变动量极低，随着上游产量的增加，上下游产销基本平衡， 但农需逐渐启动，库存少许去化。今日市场出口消息传言影响盘面上冲，但日 内情绪稳定小幅下滑，目前上下游紧平衡，农需启动中，盘面整体情绪偏强为 主，关注下游放假进度。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1795 元/吨开盘, 日内冲高回落，整体偏强。 最终 ...