Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the potassium fertilizer industry, highlighting the importance of securing supply chains and agricultural stability [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The price for potassium fertilizer contracts in China for 2025 has been set at $346 per ton CFR, which is a crucial development for ensuring supply for the upcoming agricultural seasons [1]. - Global potassium chloride demand is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increased food quality demands, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [3]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to create uncertainties in the global potassium supply chain, prompting China to focus more on the security of strategic resources like potassium [2]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a significant potassium fertilizer import contract was finalized between Chinese companies and a Dubai-based supplier, establishing a price of $346 per ton, which is essential for maintaining supply stability [1]. Global Demand Forecast - By 2030, global potassium chloride demand is expected to rise by 12-17 million tons compared to 2023 levels, with China being the largest market, anticipated to require 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024 [3]. Strategic Resource Security - The report emphasizes the need for China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [2].

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Haimer Technology, Shandong New Journey Energy Co., Ltd., and its actual controller, Su Zhancai, are planning to transfer their equity and control of the company, which may lead to a change in the company's controlling shareholder and actual controller [2][3] Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Haimer Technology announced on June 9 that it is in the process of planning a share transfer and control change, which may result in a new controlling shareholder [2] - The company has received notification from Shandong New Journey and Su Zhancai regarding the control change, with the expected transaction counterpart being a natural person who will acquire at least 5% of the total share capital and corresponding voting rights [2] - As of March 31, 2025, Shandong New Journey holds 134 million shares, accounting for 26.31% of the total share capital, while Su Zhancai directly holds 4.25 million shares, accounting for 0.83% [3] Group 2: Business Performance and Challenges - Haimer Technology has been in the oil service industry for 30 years, growing from a small enterprise to a leading brand in multiphase metering, with products sold in regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, and North America [3] - Despite its leading technology and international brand advantages, the company faces challenges such as high customer concentration, significant impact from macroeconomic fluctuations and oil price volatility, and limited negotiation power [3] - The company reported a revenue of less than 600 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 19.36%, with a net loss of 228 million yuan, primarily due to intensified industry competition [5] Group 3: Strategic Direction and Future Plans - The company aims to enhance its profitability and risk resistance by focusing on strengthening its core business and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Haimer Technology plans to explore new growth opportunities in emerging industries while solidifying its traditional business, leveraging policies that encourage new productive forces [6] - The company has completed a non-public offering, resulting in a cash flow of 98.67 million yuan from operating activities in 2024, with total cash reserves reaching 624 million yuan by the end of 2024 [6]

中银证券指出，原油价格有望延续中高位，油气开采板块高景气度持续，能源央企提质增效深入推进， 分红派息政策稳健。油气上游资本开支增加，油服行业景气度修复，技术进步带动竞争力提升，海外发 展未来可期。 能源化工ETF(159981)紧密跟踪易盛郑商所能源化工指数，易盛商品指数编制方案适用于国内商品期货 交易所的所有期货品种，考虑商品期货成交及现货消费情况、市场流动性等因素编制而成，编制流程可 以分为备选商品选择、权重设定、指数计算、指数调整等四个步骤。 相关产品： 2025年6月10日，能源化工ETF(159981)盘中涨超1%，冲击3连涨。截至13:39，该基金盘中换手13.6%， 成交6623.37万元。 资金流入方面，截至6月9日，能源化工ETF(159981)近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸 金"3976.80万元。 华泰证券表示，需求偏弱叠加新产能投放等致化工整体价差仍偏弱，但2025年下半年伴随需求复苏及资 本开支显著降速叠加供给侧自主调整，化工周期品有望迎来复苏拐点。油价短期面临需求担忧及供给协 同趋弱压力，成本减压及需求改善或助力下游环节延续复苏态势。板块而言，油价中长期存底部支撑， 且龙 ...

Group 1 - China's investment and construction projects in the energy sector for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Angola from 2020 to 2024 total $50.28 billion, with major oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion, showing a year-on-year increasing trend [1] - The oil service equipment industry has high standards, long application cycles, and requires dual certification from both the industry and clients, creating significant technical barriers and a favorable competitive landscape [1] - Leading domestic oil service equipment companies, such as Jereh and Neway, have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jereh's orders in the region expected to double in 2024 and Neway's overseas orders increasing by 60% in Q1 2025, with Middle East and Africa orders making up 44% of the total [1] Group 2 - The long-term energy transition concerns have led oil companies to favor the development of offshore oil and gas resources, which have superior resource endowments and lower barrel costs, as oil prices remain stable [2] - The development of offshore oil and gas resources is gaining momentum, with advancements in technology and equipment enhancing the competitiveness of China's oil service industry in international markets [2] - It is recommended to focus on resource stocks and oil service stocks that demonstrate stable performance [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the oil service sector include CNOOC Services (02883), Sinopec Oilfield Services (01033), Giant Oilfield Services (03303), Anton Oilfield Services (03337), and Honghua Group (00196) [3]

美国油服贝克休斯：美国本周石油钻井机减少9台，至442台，创2021年10月份以来新低。 ...

受政策及监管的影响，我国的农药产品结构不断优化。近年来我国扎实推进 农药行业的减量增效，不断推动农药产品结构调整，大力发展高效低风险新 型化学农药、生物农药，逐步淘汰老旧的农药品种和剂型，对高毒高风险的 产品进行严格的管控，农药产业结构持续优化，活性高、亩有效成分使用量 小的新型农药品种使用量占比逐年增大，部分环保不达标的中小企业陆续退 出市场。未来，我国农药生产行业市场集中度将进一步提高，农药生产布局 将进一步朝着绿色清洁发展。此外，当前农药原药价格已至底部，渠道库存 拐点有望到来，根据 iFinD 数据，截至 25 年 5 月 30 日，我国农药原药价格 指数为 73.33 点，较年初增长 0.44 点，未来随着环保政策的逐渐趋严，农药 行业产能格局将进一步优化。 环保趋严，氯虫苯甲酰胺提价 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 74 期（20250605） 要点 2025 年 6 月 6 日 行业研究 友道化学发生爆炸，氯虫苯甲酰胺供应受到影响。5 月 27 日 11 时 57 分左 右，山东省潍坊市高密市友道化学有限公司发生爆炸，该公司为豪迈集团股 份有限公司控股子公司，目前主要产品包括氯虫苯甲酰胺原药及其中间 ...

Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing "three major oil companies" and oil service sectors, recommending attention to China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, China National Offshore Oil, CNOOC Services, and others [2] - It also highlights the potential of domestic substitution trends in material companies, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, suggesting a focus on Jingrui Electric Materials, Tongcheng New Materials, and Aolide [2] - The report expresses optimism for the pesticide, fertilizer, and private refining sectors, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Huajin [2] - Additionally, it sees potential in the vitamin and methionine sectors, advising attention to Andis, Zhejiang Medicine, and New Hualian [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Hainan Huatie plans to list in Singapore to accelerate its overseas expansion and enhance its upstream channel, aiming to ensure smooth procurement of computing power equipment [3] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Hainan Huatie for 2025-2027 at 848 million, 1.202 billion, and 1.523 billion respectively, sustaining a "buy" rating [3] Group 3: Automotive Sector Analysis - NIO's first quarter of 2025 shows pressure on fundamentals, but the second quarter is expected to see a recovery in gross margins, with cost reduction efforts gradually materializing [4] - The report revises the projected non-GAAP net losses for NIO for 2025-2027 to 17.2 billion, 10.7 billion, and 8.1 billion respectively, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to previous estimates [4] - The report highlights the potential for NIO's three major brands to initiate a new product cycle in 2025, along with advantages in smart technology and battery swapping [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to ADNOC Drilling, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [1]. Core Insights - ADNOC Drilling is positioned as the exclusive drilling service provider for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and aims to support ADNOC's strategic goal of achieving a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027 [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on sustainable operations and energy optimization, deploying hybrid land drilling rigs equipped with battery storage systems to enhance efficiency and reduce fuel consumption [2]. - ADNOC Drilling has established a progressive dividend policy, targeting a compound annual growth rate of at least 10% in dividends from FY2024 to FY2028, with an expected dividend of at least $867 million for FY2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - ADNOC Drilling is headquartered in Abu Dhabi and is the sole drilling service provider for ADNOC, with ADNOC holding 78.5% of its shares [2]. - The company is expanding its operations beyond the UAE, having secured pre-qualification in Kuwait and Oman, and is already operational in Jordan [2]. Financial Performance - ADNOC Drilling boasts the highest profit margins in the global oil service industry, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 50%, compared to the industry average of around 18% [3]. - The company has long-term contracts with ADNOC that guarantee minimum returns, with offshore rigs expected to yield an internal rate of return of 11%-13% and onshore rigs between 10%-12% [3]. Growth Strategy - The company is actively expanding its fleet, with plans to increase its total number of rigs from 142 by the end of FY2024 to over 151 by FY2028 [6]. - ADNOC Drilling is also progressing on unconventional drilling projects, with eight rigs currently operational and plans for further expansion based on demand [4]. Market Position - ADNOC Drilling is recognized as one of the fastest-growing energy service companies globally, leveraging its unique business model and operational efficiencies [1][3]. - The company maintains collaborative relationships with Chinese oil service firms, viewing them as partners rather than competitors [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to ADNOC Drilling, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [1]. Core Insights - ADNOC Drilling is positioned as the exclusive drilling service provider for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and aims to support ADNOC's strategic goal of achieving a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027 [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on sustainable operations and energy optimization, deploying hybrid land drilling rigs equipped with battery storage systems to enhance efficiency and reduce fuel consumption [2]. - ADNOC Drilling's unique business model allows it to maintain industry-leading profit margins, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 50%, significantly higher than the industry average of around 18% [3]. - The company has set a target for a compound annual growth rate of at least 10% in dividends from FY2024 to FY2028, with an expected dividend of at least $867 million for FY2025 [3]. - ADNOC Drilling is expanding its operations beyond the UAE, having secured pre-qualification in Kuwait and Oman, and is already operational in Jordan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - ADNOC Drilling is headquartered in Abu Dhabi and is the sole drilling service provider for ADNOC, with ADNOC holding 78.5% of its shares [2]. - The company is committed to supporting ADNOC's production and gas processing goals, aiming for self-sufficiency in natural gas by 2030 [2]. Financial Performance - ADNOC Drilling's drilling rigs are under long-term contracts with ADNOC, ensuring minimum return guarantees, with offshore rigs expected to yield an internal rate of return of 11%-13% and onshore rigs 10%-12% [3]. - The company anticipates a dividend increase of at least 10% year-on-year, with a current dividend yield of approximately 5% [3]. Project Developments - The company has successfully deployed eight drilling rigs for unconventional projects, with plans for further expansion depending on demand [4]. - The second phase of the unconventional project is expected to reach a final investment decision by the end of FY2025 or early FY2026, potentially involving up to 20 additional rigs [4]. Market Position - ADNOC Drilling collaborates with Chinese oil service companies, viewing them as partners rather than competitors, which enhances its operational capabilities in the region [6]. - The company plans to increase its fleet from 142 rigs at the end of FY2024 to over 151 rigs by FY2028, supporting its growth strategy [6].