资料显示，中石化石油工程技术服务股份有限公司(简称SSC)是中国石化集团公司控股的中国大型的综 合油气工程与技术服务专业公司。拥有超过60年的经营业绩和丰富的项目执行经验,是中国一体化全产 业链油服领先者。2012年6月28日,中国石化集团公司实施石油工程专业化整合重组,将胜利油田、中原油 田、江汉油田、江苏油田、河南油田、华北石油局、西南石油局、华东石油局8家油田企业的石油工程 业务整体剥离,与集团公司总部石油工程管理部及国际石油工程公司、上海海洋石油局整合,成立中石化 石油工程技术服务有限公司。2014年,公司利用仪征化纤上市平台在上海、香港两地同步上市。股票代 码SH600871,HK1033,简称石化油服。 7月29日，上证指数涨0.33%，收报3609.71点，恒生指数跌0.15%，收报25524.45点。 石化油服AH溢价达172.79%，位居AH股溢价率第三位。当日收盘，石化油服A股报2.02元，平盘报收， H股报0.81港元，下跌1.22%。 *注：AH股是指同时在A股和港股上市的公司，溢价（A/H）越大，说明H股相比A股越便宜。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that the number of natural gas drilling rigs in the United States has reached its highest level since August 2023, indicating a potential increase in natural gas production and exploration activities in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The increase in drilling activity suggests a positive trend for the natural gas sector, which may lead to higher supply levels and potentially impact pricing dynamics in the market [1] - This uptick in drilling rig counts could be a response to rising demand for natural gas, driven by various factors including energy transition efforts and economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of drilling rigs in Canada has increased by 10 from the previous week, reaching a total of 182 rigs [1] Group 1 - The increase in drilling platforms indicates a positive trend in the Canadian oil service industry [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased by 26% to $421 million, but excluding Pintail revenues, revenues were down 3% [15] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.08, with adjustments of $0.03 related to acquisition costs [20] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $65.6 million from $48.9 million, with a margin increase of 90 basis points to 15.6% [20] - Operating cash flow was $92.9 million, with free cash flow at $17.6 million after capital expenditures of $75.3 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pressure pumping accounted for 25.9% of total revenues, while wireline represented 24.7% [16] - Downhole tools revenues increased by 6% sequentially, with notable strength in the Northeast and Rocky Mountain regions [8] - Coiled tubing revenues were up 12% sequentially, with the delivery of the largest coiled tubing unit in the U.S. [10] - Rental tools revenues increased by 17% compared to the previous quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-pressure pumping service lines represented 74% of total revenues during the second quarter [7] - The wireline market remains challenging with intensified pricing pressure [12] - The overall market is competitive, with a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to reduced rig activity [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to test 100% natural gas pressure pumping units as part of its strategy to evaluate alternative technologies [7] - The focus is on organic investments and selective acquisitions to drive growth and improve customer mix [13] - The company aims to manage costs and utilize its balance sheet to take advantage of opportunities as they arise [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted increasing macro and geopolitical uncertainties impacting operations [5] - The current oil prices are unlikely to stimulate significant activity increases in the near term [24] - There is cautious optimism regarding the customer lineup for pressure pumping, which may minimize seasonal slowdowns [42] Other Important Information - The acquisition of Pintail contributed approximately $99 million in revenues, accounting for 23% of total revenues [12] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 41.3%, significantly higher than the previous quarter due to acquisition-related costs [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Acquisition strategy and preference for consolidation or expansion - Management indicated a focus on scale in existing service lines while remaining opportunistic in evaluating new opportunities [27][29] Question: Outlook for the frac market and potential slowdown - Management acknowledged historical challenges in the frac market during the third quarter but expressed hope for improved activity with dedicated customers [41][42] Question: Free cash flow outlook for the second half of the year - Management expects better free cash flow in the second half, not counting on another prepayment like the one received in the previous year [45][47] Question: Impact of pricing pressures in wireline on future results - Management confirmed that pricing pressures are tied to Pintail and acknowledged the challenges faced in the Permian Basin [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent fluctuations in international oil prices, the overall trend remains at a medium to high level, encouraging continued investment from oil extraction companies [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry Investment - The oil service industry is benefiting from the sustained investment enthusiasm in upstream oil and gas due to strong crude oil prices [1] - Major oil-producing countries are increasing resource development efforts, with OPEC and non-OPEC countries planning to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day starting August [2] - Global upstream capital expenditure is expected to recover and exceed $582.4 billion by 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Oil Service Companies' Opportunities - Oil service companies are experiencing increased demand for equipment and services, particularly in overseas markets, driven by positive investment expectations in upstream oil and gas [3] - Jerry Engineering received a contract worth approximately $8.5 billion from Algeria's national oil company for a gas booster station project [3] - China National Petroleum Engineering signed a contract worth $1.6 billion with TotalEnergies for a gas processing plant project in Iraq [3] Group 3: New Contracts and Market Expansion - Bomaike successfully entered the Suriname market with a contract valued between 750 million to 1 billion yuan for the construction of an FPSO upper module [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [11][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company operates in three main segments: energy technology services, energy logistics services, and low-carbon environmental and digitalization services. It has shown significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements since its listing, with a steady decline in operating expenses. Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the company's performance has been consistently growing, benefiting from the national seven-year action plan [2][7][46]. - The global potential for offshore oil and gas resources is substantial, with ultra-deepwater being a future trend. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on increased exploration and development efforts in offshore oil and gas, especially as domestic oil companies increase capital expenditures to enhance energy security [8][54]. - The company has a strong correlation between its revenue and profitability with the production activities of CNOOC, demonstrating resilience against oil price fluctuations. The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 35.62%, indicating robust dividend potential as earnings continue to grow [10][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a publicly listed entity controlled by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), focusing on offshore and onshore oil and gas production. It aims to become a world-class energy technology service provider with a Chinese characteristic [7][30]. Business Segments - The company’s business is divided into three main categories: 1. Energy technology services, which have seen rapid revenue growth. 2. Energy logistics services, which are expected to benefit from stable demand for LNG transportation. 3. Low-carbon environmental and digitalization services, which are crucial for sustainable development [9][36][39]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, with energy logistics services contributing 23.210 billion yuan, energy technology services 21.733 billion yuan, and low-carbon services 10.060 billion yuan. The revenue from CNOOC accounted for 61.7% of total revenue [39][42]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.656 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% year-on-year increase, supported by a steady rise in operational efficiency and cost management [46][48]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing reliance on foreign oil and gas, with crude oil dependency reaching 72.1% and natural gas dependency at 42% by 2024. This trend emphasizes the need for enhanced domestic exploration and production efforts [55][56]. - The company is expected to benefit from CNOOC's stable capital expenditures, which are projected to increase significantly despite fluctuations in oil prices, supporting the overall offshore oil service industry [65][66].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [9][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [10][31] - Brent crude oil prices increased to $71.97 per barrel, up 2.95% week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $67.93 per barrel, up 2.46% [11][32] Coal Industry - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) rose to 628 RMB/ton, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, driven by improved demand and trading conditions [12][13] - Coal production is gradually recovering, with total inventory at ports reported at 26.9 million tons, down 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [12][13] - The domestic coal consumption for key power plants increased to 4.88 million tons per day, a 6.09% rise from the previous week, reflecting higher electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen a slight increase, with the price for Shanxi main coking coal at 1,350 RMB/ton, up 9.76% week-on-week, as supply conditions improve [14][15] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal is improving, with increased orders from steel mills and a decrease in inventory levels [14][15] Natural Gas - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production and consumption will reach record highs in 2025, with expected consumption of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day [16][17] - U.S. natural gas prices decreased to $3.33 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% from the previous week, while European gas prices increased [16][17] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and potential supply shortages [17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures from major oil companies, which are projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [18][19] - The number of active drilling rigs globally decreased to 1,576, with a notable decline in the Middle East and the U.S. [19]

Core Viewpoint - The company is transitioning from incremental growth to focusing on existing market opportunities, with a projected revenue of 504 million yuan for 2024, while maintaining a strong commitment to R&D investment [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 504 million yuan, with R&D investment reaching 89 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company has turned a profit, with revenue remaining stable compared to the same period last year, and net profit showing improvement [1] - The management anticipates that as the competitive landscape evolves, product prices will gradually return to rational levels, which will help restore gross margin levels [1] Group 2: Business Development - The company leverages its "chip design + control module + system integration" R&D platform to maintain its advantage in high-precision control and extreme environment applications [1] - In the oil service sector, the company has developed specialized products for geological exploration and high-temperature, high-pressure applications, becoming a core supplier for major oil companies [1] - The company is focusing on high-end precision analog chips through its subsidiary, with expectations for growth in this segment and an emphasis on domestic substitution opportunities [2] Group 3: Market Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with a "detonator + explosives + blasting services" model, targeting regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia [2] - The management is exploring investment or acquisition opportunities in high-potential areas that align with their technology capabilities to enhance global presence [2] - The core products, including electronic control modules and detonation controllers, play a crucial role in the domestic market, particularly in infrastructure and mining sectors, with future demand expected to increase due to national strategic initiatives [2]

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] - The model incorporates price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but no significant improvement signals were observed for July 2025[13] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the stable proportional relationship between hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months to estimate future supply-demand gaps[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter} / \text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)} $[14] - Future potential supply is estimated as: $ \text{6-Month Potential Supply} = \text{Current Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 Months Ago)} $[15] - Future demand is projected based on historical quarterly slaughter data[15] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this method effectively identifies hog price upward cycles[15] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and calculates per-ton profit for the steel industry by considering steel prices and raw material costs[17] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model integrates steel prices with the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the industry's profit trends but indicates a negative profit growth rate for June 2025[21] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - For the glass industry, the model calculates gross profit based on price and cost data[27] - For the cement industry, the model incorporates coal fuel price changes to predict profit growth rates[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively tracks profitability trends but maintains a neutral signal for both industries due to the lack of significant positive indicators[27] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses variations in fuel and crude oil prices to calculate profit growth rates and cracking spreads[28] - Allocation signals are designed based on observed changes in oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts stable profit growth for June 2025 but maintains a neutral signal due to the lack of significant upward trends in oil prices and drilling activity[35][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The model tracks the historical excess return of the coal industry relative to the Wind All-A Index, showing a declining profit trend for July 2025[13] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply at 18,226 million heads and demand at 18,244 million heads[16] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model forecasts a negative profit growth rate for June 2025, with no significant improvement in PMI rolling averages[21] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Gross profit for float glass continues to decline year-on-year as of June 2025[27] - **Cement Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to be positive for June 2025, driven by lower coal fuel prices[27] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts stable profit growth for the refining industry in June 2025, with oil prices and new drilling activity showing no significant upward trends[35][38]