证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：利润及回购好于预期，国 际业务继续高增 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,074 | 68,403 | 75,078 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 14.60 | 12.00 | 9.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 26,528 | 19,074 | 21,156 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 55.44 | (28.10) | 10.91 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 18,334 | 20,050 | 22,043 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 1.62 | 9.36 ...

美银证券发布研报称，携程集团-S(TCOM.US,09961)第二季净收入同比增长16%，非公认会计准则经营 溢利率31.4%，超出公司指引及市场预期。酒店和交通收入分别同比增长21%和11%，受惠高于同业的 双位数交易量增长，该行上调对携程目标价，由550港元上调至652港元，重申"买入"评级。管理层亦指 出夏季旅游预订需求强劲且交易量增长强劲，该行预测第三季收入同比增长14%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to increase [1] - The company is positioned favorably in the current competitive environment of the domestic market, with a trend of improving marketing investment efficiency expected to continue [1] - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price adjustment from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group's Q2 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1%, primarily driven by better-than-expected accommodation revenue [1] - CICC maintains the revenue forecast for the company for the next two years, while raising the 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast by 8% to 17.7 billion yuan [1] - The target price for Ctrip's US stock is set at $75.9, and for its H-shares at 588.5 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to non-GAAP P/E ratios of 21x and 20x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue growing by 16.2% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 1% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 15% [1] - The net profit margin was 33.8%, better than market expectations [1] - Ctrip anticipates a revenue growth of 12-17% year-on-year for Q3, consistent with market expectations [1] - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating on Ctrip, raising the target price from 635 HKD to 725 HKD [1] Financial Performance - Q2 net revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 5 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase [1] - Net profit margin stood at 33.8%, exceeding market expectations [1] Future Outlook - Ctrip projects Q3 revenue growth of 12-17% year-on-year [1] - The target price for Ctrip has been raised from 635 HKD to 725 HKD by the brokerage [1]

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，携程第三季度正面展望再次证明领先的在线旅游代理的韧性，类似去年夏 季，而且表现持续超越整体旅游市场，先前的高强度营销投入正带来成果，保持持续的高增长。公司第 三季非通用会计准则经营溢利率指引为32%，符合预期。50亿美元的新股份回购计划是重大正面惊喜， 相较市场预期20亿美元回购，大幅提升对股东回报。该行对携程ADR目标价上调至83美元，维持"增 持"评级，并将今年至2027年非通用会计准则经营溢利预测上调1%至2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the online travel industry, particularly for leading companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng, which have shown steady growth in their mid-year reports [1][2]. Core Insights - The online travel industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with Tongcheng's revenue growing by 10% year-on-year in Q2 2025 and Ctrip's revenue increasing by 16.2% in the same period. Both companies maintained stable growth rates compared to Q1 2025, with notable performance in international business [1][2]. - Domestic tourism is on the rise, with the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reporting 5.62 billion domestic trips in 2024, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, and total spending of 5.8 trillion yuan, up 17.1% [1][2]. - The Guangdong provincial government plans to launch a "Golden Autumn Cultural Tourism Consumption Season" on September 12, 2025, with a budget of 20 million yuan for issuing tourism consumption vouchers, which is expected to stimulate local tourism and related industries [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw mixed performance, with retail, food and beverage, and social services showing positive growth, while beauty care, home appliances, and textile and apparel sectors experienced declines [1][2]. - Notable stock performances included Wanchen Group (+41.10%) and Jiaheng Home Care (+55.37%), while West China Animal Husbandry (-5.88%) and Gree (-8.30%) faced declines [1][2]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights significant announcements from various companies, including Taiping Bird's revenue decline of 7.86% and Shanghai Jahwa's revenue growth of 4.75% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - Noteworthy is the performance of companies like Nongfu Spring, which reported a 15.6% increase in revenue, and Youyou Food, which saw a 45.59% rise in revenue [1][2].

Group 1: Summer Travel Trends - The summer travel season of 2025 has seen a significant increase in travel volume compared to the previous year, with long-distance travel being the primary focus [1][2] - Family travel and senior travel have shown notable growth, particularly among children aged 10 and under and seniors aged 60 and above [2] - Domestic and international travel bookings through platforms like Tuniu have experienced double-digit year-on-year growth [2][6] Group 2: Air Travel and Passenger Volume - The total passenger volume for civil aviation during the summer is expected to reach a historical high of 150 million, driven by affordable ticket prices and increased demand for long-distance travel [2] - Approximately 6 million first-time flyers are anticipated this summer, primarily consisting of children, students, and seniors [2] Group 3: Emerging Travel Preferences - There is a growing trend towards small group and private tours, with a significant increase in demand for personalized travel experiences [6][7] - The number of customized travel orders has surged, with a 53% increase in revenue from cross-province small group tours compared to 2024 [6] Group 4: Impact of Events and Entertainment - Events such as concerts and exhibitions have significantly boosted travel interest, with searches for accommodations and attractions near event venues increasing dramatically [10][11] - The popularity of sports events has also driven travel, with notable increases in bookings for destinations hosting these events [11] Group 5: Influence of Media and Culture - The release of popular films and TV shows has led to increased travel to filming locations, with some destinations experiencing over a 380% increase in search volume [12] - The success of domestic animations and dramas has particularly highlighted cultural tourism, with specific sites seeing substantial growth in visitor interest [12]

Group 1 - The inbound tourism market in China is experiencing a significant increase this summer due to factors such as visa policy facilitation and an increase in the number of countries with direct flights [1][4] - The number of countries with civil aviation connections has risen to 80, with international passenger flights peaking in early August at approximately 2,100 flights per day [4][2] - There is a notable increase in foreign tourists, particularly from visa-free countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, with visitor numbers growing by over 50% year-on-year [4] Group 2 - Family travel has become a new trend, with more foreign tourists visiting China in groups, particularly children and elderly travelers [4][5] - Major cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu are the top destinations for inbound tourism, with travel patterns shifting from traditional hub cities to deeper inland areas [7] - There has been a dramatic increase in flight bookings to lesser-known cities, with bookings to Datong in Shanxi increasing ninefold and to Yiwu in Zhejiang increasing by 2.6 times year-on-year [7] Group 3 - The "China tour" has also stimulated "China shopping," with initiatives like "buy now, refund later" catering to the diverse needs of foreign tourists [8] - There is a rising consumer willingness among foreign tourists as they engage in travel and shopping experiences in China [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expected growth in China's civil aviation sector during the 2025 summer transportation period, with an anticipated total of 147 million passengers transported, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] - The total number of flights scheduled during the summer transportation period is projected to reach 1.199 million, also reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year growth, with an average passenger load factor of 84.82% [1] - The domestic air transport market is experiencing steady growth, with passenger flow primarily concentrated in the four major urban agglomerations: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, and Chengdu-Chongqing [1] Group 2 - The summer tourism market has seen a significant increase in passenger volume at regional airports, with some airports like Pu'er Simao in Yunnan and Wudang Mountain in Hubei experiencing over 100% year-on-year growth in passenger throughput [5] - Airports such as Hami in Xinjiang and Wutai Mountain in Shanxi have reported passenger throughput increases exceeding 50% year-on-year [5] - The introduction of new flight routes during the summer has provided travelers with more convenient travel options [5] Group 3 - Data from online travel booking platforms indicates a notable increase in flight bookings for cities with "small airports" in third-tier and lower cities, with Anshun in Guizhou seeing a 2.4 times increase in ticket bookings [12] - Popular summer destinations such as Meizhou in Guangdong, Pu'er in Yunnan, and Shiyan in Hubei have experienced ticket booking increases of 1.5 times, 1.4 times, and 1.3 times, respectively [12]