Core Viewpoint - The concept of "dual cycles" in the economy and finance indicates that economic cycles and financial cycles operate independently, leading to a divergence that poses higher demands for macroeconomic policy coordination [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Evolution and Definition of Dual Cycles - The debt economy era began in the 1990s, where economic growth increasingly relies on debt expansion, leading to a credit-driven economic model [2][3]. - The financial policies in Western economies tend to accumulate excessive money supply, resulting in a disconnect between monetary policy and real economic activity [2][3]. Divergence of U.S. Economy and Finance - Post-pandemic, the U.S. economy shows a gradual decline, with real GDP growth rates projected at 2.5%, 2.9%, and 2.8% from 2022 to 2024, while nominal GDP growth rates are expected to decline from 9.8% to 5.3% in the same period [4][5]. - Despite a decline in economic growth, U.S. consumer spending remains strong, with personal consumption expenditures projected to grow by 9.7%, 6.5%, and 5.6% from 2022 to 2024 [5][6]. Strong Financial Performance - U.S. financial markets have shown robust performance, with domestic listed company market capitalization expected to grow by -17.0%, 21.5%, and 27.0% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a divergence from economic growth trends [7][8]. - The U.S. capital market has adopted internationalization strategies to counteract the trend of "de-equitization," maintaining a stable number of listed companies despite a decline in domestic listings [8]. Implications of Economic and Financial Separation - The divergence between economic and financial cycles has become evident, particularly during the periods of 2019-2020 and 2023-2024, highlighting the independent evolution of these cycles [15][16]. - The current economic and financial landscape suggests that the U.S. maintains a "strong financial" stance to support a weaker economy, which may not be sustainable in the long term [16][17]. International Economic Competition - The importance of capital flows in the international financial landscape is expected to rise, with the "dual cycles" phenomenon becoming more pronounced in open economies [18]. - The shift in focus from trade and currency to capital will redefine international economic competition, necessitating careful consideration of capital project openness for countries aspiring to become financial powers [18].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the first dedicated administrative regulations for listed company supervision in China aims to enhance regulatory effectiveness and investor protection, promoting healthy operations and governance of listed companies [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for public consultation on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies," which includes a dedicated chapter on corporate governance and investor protection [1]. - The new regulations will bridge existing laws such as the Securities Law and Company Law, establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for listed companies and related parties [1]. Group 2: Risk Prevention and High-Quality Development - The regulations focus on risk prevention, strong supervision, and promoting high-quality development, particularly in the context of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [2]. - By regulating acquirer qualifications and behaviors, the regulations aim to enhance the quality and effectiveness of M&A activities, supporting industry integration and upgrading [2]. - The regulations impose strict obligations on key executives and independent directors, ensuring accountability and proper exercise of shareholder rights [2]. Group 3: Investor Protection - A significant highlight of the regulations is the emphasis on investor protection, requiring listed companies to enhance cash dividend and share buyback mechanisms to improve investor returns [3]. - The regulations also aim to prevent companies from evading delisting and harming investor interests during restructuring, mandating cash options or other protective measures for dissenting shareholders [3].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies" marks a significant reform in China's capital market, emphasizing risk prevention, strong regulation, and development promotion, thereby enhancing the legal framework for listed companies [1] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The new regulations establish a comprehensive regulatory framework covering the entire lifecycle of listed companies, from governance to delisting, addressing issues like financial fraud with strict auditing requirements and penalties for major shareholders [3][7] - The regulations enhance preemptive measures, real-time interventions, and post-event accountability, including protections for dissenting shareholders during delisting processes [3] Group 2: Corporate Governance - The regulations specifically address corporate governance by defining the boundaries of behavior for controlling shareholders and executives, mandating that independent directors constitute a majority on audit committees [4] - This initiative aims to curb the "one-man rule" phenomenon and promote transparency in decision-making processes [4] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The regulations improve the rules surrounding major asset restructurings, emphasizing the independence of financial advisors and focusing on industrial integration to protect minority shareholders [5] - By standardizing acquisition criteria and enhancing information disclosure, the regulations aim to prevent misleading restructurings [5] Group 4: Investor Protection - A dedicated chapter on investor protection mandates listed companies to establish regular dividend mechanisms and incorporate share buybacks into their internal policies [6] - The regulations also require proactive delisting companies to offer protection plans for dissenting shareholders, addressing loopholes that allow for malicious avoidance of delisting [6] Group 5: Combating Illegal Activities - The regulations implement a "source prevention, process monitoring, and post-event accountability" mechanism to tackle issues like financial fraud and illegal guarantees, significantly increasing penalties for violations [7] - This approach aims to dismantle the ecosystem of fraud and purify the market environment, shifting the focus from expansion to quality improvement in the capital market [7]

专题：财经中国2025年会 和讯网 12月7日，国家一级教授、中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国人民大学原副校长吴晓求谈到重构 中国资本市场生态链，他认为重构的逻辑就是从过去的融资者为中心的理念过渡到投资者权益保护。这 样一来，就要系统地考虑过去的规则已经不适合于今天了。 吴晓求表示，从资产端开始，要从金融市场的企业开展。从这个意义上说，创业板，特别是科创板是具 有重要的价值，虽然能从它的实践中找到缺陷，但总体的方向是正确的，包括注册制的改革。 其次，资产端改了以后，资金端必须要改，就是投资端要改。过去我们的投资端是以中小投资者为主， 就是个人投资者为主，这个市场当然成长不起来，一个以个人投资者为主的市场永远没有成长性。投资 端的改革核心是要扩大市场的流动性，让市场有充分的流动性，有了充分的流动性之后，资产的价格才 能发现，才能进行有效的组合，这个资产的流动性才能改善。 再次，生态链的第三端是制度层面的改革，要围绕着投资者利益、权益的保护这个角度，整个规则都要 调整。这是一个非常漫长的过程。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第 ...

再次，生态链的第三端是制度层面的改革，要围绕着投资者利益、权益的保护这个角度，整个规则都要 调整。这是一个非常漫长的过程。 吴晓求表示，从资产端开始，要从金融市场的企业开展。从这个意义上说，创业板，特别是科创板是具 有重要的价值，虽然能从它的实践中找到缺陷，但总体的方向是正确的，包括注册制的改革。 其次，资产端改了以后，资金端必须要改，就是投资端要改。过去我们的投资端是以中小投资者为主， 就是个人投资者为主，这个市场当然成长不起来，一个以个人投资者为主的市场永远没有成长性。投资 端的改革核心是要扩大市场的流动性，让市场有充分的流动性，有了充分的流动性之后，资产的价格才 能发现，才能进行有效的组合，这个资产的流动性才能改善。 12月7日，国家一级教授、中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国人民大学原副校长吴晓求谈到重构 中国资本市场生态链，他认为重构的逻辑就是从过去的融资者为中心的理念过渡到投资者权益保护。这 样一来，就要系统地考虑过去的规则已经不适合于今天了。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。吴晓求在 ...

记者丨崔文静 编辑丨张伟贤 在12月5日至6日举行的南方财经论坛2025年年会上，清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金 融学院副院长田轩发表主题演讲，为中国资本市场如何支撑高水平科技自立自强提出清晰路径。 他指出："我们需要，一是更加包容的创投市场；二是'不太积极'的二级市场，形成一个组合拳。" 本届论坛主题为"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"。田轩在演讲中深入剖析了"十五五"规划对 于科技自立自强的战略强调，指出当前已进入"战略机遇与风险挑战并存"的时期，金融体系必须以历史 主动精神进行适配性变革，方能服务于科技创新这一经济增长的本质驱动力。 前端包容： 以"耐心资本"滋养从0到1的创新火种 田轩强调，金融支持科技创新的首要环节，在于打造一个真正包容的创业投资市场，其核心是引入并壮 大"耐心资本"。 他回顾了中国创投行业自1998年以来的发展，指出尽管长期处于相对小众的地位，但近年来"耐心资 本"的概念在中央多项重要政策文件中被反复强调，凸显了创投对于培育新质生产力的源头性作用。 包容性的基石在于对"人"的深刻理解与接纳。田轩引用了一项针对二十余位超级独角兽创业者的学术研 究，将这些改变行业的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that declining interest rates may become a norm in China's financial operations, and addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates will be a primary task for the financial industry [1][3] Group 2 - The reasons for the decline in interest rates include changes in global population structure, slowing technological progress, and a decrease in potential growth rates, leading to a situation where global savings exceed total investments [3] - The financial system's transformation, characterized by significant financialization of the real economy, has altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy [3] - The historical lessons from the Great Depression have led global monetary authorities to inject substantial liquidity into the financial system and real economy during economic fluctuations, resulting in a persistent decline in nominal interest rates [3] Group 3 - The impact of declining interest rates on the real economy includes reduced financial costs, which positively stimulates economic development [3] - In the financial sector, lower interest rates can lead to a narrowing of interest rate spreads and potential outflows of funds from commercial banks' balance sheets, resulting in changes to the social financing structure [3] - For monetary authorities, the decline in interest rates and the resulting disintermediation may weaken the credit transmission mechanism of monetary policy, increasing the importance of liquidity management [3] Group 4 - Data from the People's Bank of China indicates that the total social financing amount increased from 12.768 trillion yuan in 2015 to 43.772 trillion yuan by October 2025, a growth of 2.42 times over ten years [4] - The scale of indirect financing, including various types of loans, rose from 11.055 trillion yuan to 28.617 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.58 times over the same period [4] - The proportion of indirect financing in total social financing decreased from 86% to 65.3%, a reduction of 21 percentage points, indicating progress towards the goal of reducing indirect financing and increasing direct financing [4] - The conclusion drawn is that disintermediation has become an effective condition for the development of the capital market, although other conditions are also necessary for successful market growth [4]

北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）12月6月，"2025北京PE论坛"在北京举办。会上，中国人民大学国 家金融研究院院长、中国资本市场研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求以《中国资本市场改革的三个目 标》为题，详细阐述中国资本市场改革的三大目标及实现路径。 吴晓求指出，中国资本市场改革有三大目标：基础目标是消除市场"雷区"，杜绝欺诈行为，通过严厉刑 事处罚等遏制违法违规行为，完善民事赔偿机制；核心目标是让市场成为社会财富管理机制，调整居民 资产结构，预计2030年"十五五"结束时，证券化率达100%；愿景目标是建成新时期国际金融中心，成 为人民币计价资产配置中心，为2035年金融强国目标打下坚实基础。 另外，吴晓求表示，资本市场资产端改革核心是调整上市公司结构，推动高新特精类高科技和科创型企 业成为主体，为私募股权投资创造多元化退出机制。市场需求端改革重点在于扩充流动性、增加资金规 模，要推动保险资金、社保基金、养老金、银行理财资金等大资金进入市场，优化投资者结构。制度端 改革关键是提升市场透明度，需修改相关法律规则，实现处罚机制从行政处罚为主转向刑事处罚和民事 赔偿为主，建立集团诉讼制度。 ...

"源头活水的大量增加，将推动资本市场进入一个与以往显著不同的新发展阶段。"刘世锦表示，从融资者角度看，资本市场要 培育具有全球创新领先竞争力的大型头部科技企业和大批创新型中小企业，在聚集和激励创新资源，推动科技创新与产业创新 融合、加快产业转型升级等方面，走到国际前列。从投资者角度看，资本市场要显著增加养老金等机构投资者的比重，在稳定 股市的同时，较大幅度地支撑老龄化社会的社会保障体系支出。更广泛地，资本市场通过提升资源利用效率增加投资者的财产 性收入，在扩大居民消费中发挥更重要作用。 21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 广州报道 由南方财经全媒体集团主办，21世纪经济报道承办，渣打银行战略支持，东方证券等支持的"南方财经论坛2025年会"12月5日— 6日在广州南方财经大厦举办。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，加快建设金融强国。这是"金融强国"首次写入五年 规划建议。 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会中方首席顾问、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在主论坛演讲中指出，我国经济增长面临 的主要挑战由供给约束转为需求约束。需求不足主要不是投资和出口不足，而是消费不足。相应地，经济增长将更多 ...

新华财经北京12月6日电（记者刘玉龙）中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本市场研究院院长吴晓求12月6日在参加2025北京PE论坛时表示，经过 系列举措，A股市场进入上升趋势，未来要准确把握我国资本市场改革的三个目标，持续推动资本市场高质量发展。 基于以上目标，吴晓求提出要从资产端、投资端、制度端深化改革。其中，资产端改革的核心是调整上市公司结构，推动高科技企业、科创型企业成为上市 公司主体。投资端改革的核心是提高市场流动性，尤其是推动中长期大资金入市，大幅度增加进入市场的资金流量，增加资金存量，让市场成长起来。制度 端改革的核心是保证市场的透明度和公平性，对于违法违规行为的处罚要由行政处罚为主过渡到刑事处罚和民事处罚为主，不设上限，让违规违法行为付出 昂贵的代价。 （文章来源：新华财经） 吴晓求介绍，一是让投资者安心投资，二是成为社会财富管理的市场，三是把我国资本市场建设成为重要的新的国际金融中心。 ...