中泰期货尿素周报 2025年4月28日 ——现货成交重心下移 新交割库大批量启用 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | 产业链 | | 2025年4月17日-4月23日 | 2025年4月24日-4月30日 | 2025年5月1日-5月7日 | 2025年5月8日-5月14日 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 19.28 | 19.86 | 20.14 | 20.00 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家企业 | | | 吨 | | | | | 计划检修，4家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 农需持续 ...

①化工新材料：核心增长引擎 公司化工新材料产品包括 聚碳酸酯（PC）、尼龙 6、己内酰胺、多元醇（正丁醇、辛醇、新戊二醇等）、有机硅材料和氟材料（六氟丙烯、聚全氟乙 丙烯、聚四氟乙烯、二氟甲烷等） 。报告期内， 己内酰胺·尼龙 6 一期工程 开车成功满负荷运行， 40万吨有机硅项目 顺利打通全流程， 24万吨乙烯 下游一体化项目 、 15 万吨丙酸等项目 有序推进， 30万吨双氧水装置 恢复生产。 报告期内， 化工新材料板块营收203.66亿元，同比增长26.83%，占总营收68.43% ，毛利率16%（同比+1个百分点） ②基础化工：价格承压，营收下滑 【DT新材料】 获悉，4月26日， 鲁西化工 发布公告，2025年第一季度，公司实现营业收入为72.90亿元，同比上升7.96%；归母净利润为4.13亿元， 同比下降27.30%；扣非归母净利润为3.84亿元，同比下降33.81%。 | | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期增减(%) | | 营业收入(元) | 7,289,926,095.44 | 6,752,410,7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the chemical industry, particularly in the compound fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while recommending "Hold" for others [17]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in the compound fertilizer, metal chromium, and niche pesticide markets. The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued high-growth companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive performance of listed companies in Q1 2025, particularly in the compound fertilizer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Xin Yang Feng, Stanley, and Yun Tu Holdings for investment opportunities [3][4]. - The report notes that metal chromium prices have surged to 75,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7,500 CNY/ton, driven by rising demand from the stainless steel sector and new military spending in Europe [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with stable trading volumes for seasonal crop pesticides. Specific products like Acetochlor and Avermectin are seeing price increases, with recommendations for companies like Xian Da and Li Min [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions in the chemical sector indicate a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term [4][6]. - The chemical industry PPI data shows a gradual recovery from negative values, with March 2025 PPI at -2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [6][8]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Sector - The report highlights that the domestic urea price is currently at 1,800 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.6%. The compound fertilizer sector is experiencing a decrease in operating rates, leading to increased inventory levels [10]. - The pesticide market is witnessing a seasonal peak, with stable trading volumes and price adjustments in various pesticide products, including a price increase for Pyrazole [10][19]. Chemical Products Pricing and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed pricing data for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in prices for PTA, MEG, and PVC, with specific attention to the impact of raw material costs and market demand [10][11][12]. - The report notes that the market for fluorinated chemicals is facing supply constraints due to mining restrictions, while the demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments [12][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and Yun Tianhua in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [17][18]. - Companies in the tire and fluorochemical sectors are also highlighted for their potential benefits from recovering domestic demand and cost reductions [3][17].

2025年4月23日，青海省格尔木市政府组建的工作组，以环境整治的名义，在没有任何行政处罚手续或法院判决等合法手续的情况下，公然违法将美格公司 的围墙和辅助设施强制拆除。 当全国从上到下大搞优化营商环境时，当年招商引资的"香饽饽"——青海美格钾业公司，却正遭当地"杀鸡取卵"，没有手续便被政府违规强拆。眼看着整齐 的工厂瞬息间变成一片废墟，公司负责人张先生欲哭无泪：明明是请进来的客人，怎么突然就成了要被赶走的敌人？民营企业座谈会的春风，为何就不度玉 门关？ 美格公司是2017年左右被青海省格尔木市招商引资进入当地的，公司专注于水溶肥，钾肥和熔盐的研发与生产，产品均严格遵循国家标准，品质上乘，多年 发展下来，在业界都有很高的知名度，企业不仅按时上交利税，而且解决了近百人的就业问题。 "当初批复了60亩土地。因面积不够，为正常生产，2019年，公司又辗转购买了毗邻的土地。这里历史上曾是盐湖公司八十年代的知青宿舍，曾经的激情燃 烧的火热土地，无数知青在这里用汗水托起了青海盐湖的历史功绩。我们也算是握着知青们握过的接力棒，在格尔木这块土地上生产和建设。"谈起"由于历 史原因，这部分宿舍和厂房的土地没有完善的土地手续。但 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：现货成交持续弱势，短期弱势运行 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价266.01-268.01美元/吨，高端下调1美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨； 波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸395.01-400.01美元/吨，上调5美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR 价格375.01-390.01美元/吨，高端上调10美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。由于目前出口法检政策仍严格，国际国内价格 背离格局延续。 ➢ 国内现货：目前基层对尿素的采购积极性仍较弱。从周四至周日，现货成交持续清淡，短期现货预计仍偏弱运行。4月27日报价，天庆下跌至1750元 /吨、临沂下跌至1800元/吨、东平贸易回调至1760元/吨、心连心 ...

期货研究报告|尿素周报 2025-04-27 需求未明显提升，上游库存累积 策略摘要 前期部分装置陆续恢复，尿素产量持续提升，供应端高位运行，上游库存累积。受南方 部分地区干旱影响，下游农业需求推后，短期仍处于空档期，工业需求减弱，复合肥开 工率小幅走低，五一假期临近，下游刚需采购为主，目前处于尿素旺季，等待下游实际 需求来临。煤炭与天然气价格稳中偏弱运行，尿素成本端持稳。国内出口政策维持收紧， 港口库存小幅波动，建议关注尿素出口相关政策情况。 周度产业信息 ■ 市场分析 海外价格：截至 4 月 25 日，小颗粒中国 FOB 报 267 美元/吨（-1），波罗的海小颗粒 FOB 报 350 美元/吨（+4），印度小颗粒 CFR 报 392 美元/吨（0）；中国大颗粒 FOB 报 272 美元/吨（-1）。 生产利润：截至 4 月 25 日，煤制固定床理论利润-174 元/吨（-20），煤制新型水煤浆 工艺理论利润 284 元/吨（-30），气制工艺理论利润-151 元/吨（-60）。 供应端：截至 4 月 25 日，企业产能利用率 83.6%（-2.1%）。企业总库存量 106.5 万吨 （+15.9），港口 ...

司尔特近日发布公告称无法在预定期限内披露2024年年度报告，这一事件的核心问题源于公司全资子公 司贵州路发实业有限公司的财务造假与管理人员职务侵占。 2． 股价暴跌压力：投资者情绪已受重创，公告发布后股价较2024年高点下跌约20%，且控股股东国购 产业质押的1.23亿股已跌破平仓线，可能引发爆仓连锁反应。 此次事件暴露了公司内控体系的重大缺陷。早在2024年，独立董事吴玉光、朱克亮就因"黄席利涉嫌职 务侵占"案件无法获得充分证据，对年报真实性提出质疑，但案件长期无进展，形成"挂案"，使得历史 财务数据的可信度持续受损。此次公告进一步证实，造假行为与职务犯罪直接相关，公司既是财务造假 的责任主体，也是内部人员侵占资金的受害者。 从市场影响看，司尔特面临多重风险： 1． 退市风险：根据深交所规则，若公司未能在法定期限（2025年4月30日）披露年报，股票将于5月4 日起停牌；停牌两个月后若仍无法披露，将被实施退市风险警示（*ST）；此后若再逾期两个月，可能 直接终止上市。 值得注意的是，公司此前发布的业绩预告显示2024年净利润同比增幅超100%，表面数据亮眼，但此次 事件揭示其业绩增长可能建立在虚假财务基础上 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a strong performance in Q1, with compound fertilizer sales increasing by approximately 35% year-on-year [1] - The sales growth of new-type fertilizers was even higher, marking the highest sales volume for the same period in the company's history [1] - This strong sales performance lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual sales targets [1]

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.0182 yuan for 2024, a significant increase of 106.16% compared to a loss of 0.2956 yuan in 2023 [1] - The net profit for 2024 was 0.6 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 9.71 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 106.18% improvement [1] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 2.95% in 2024 from a negative 39.04% in 2023, reflecting a 107.56% increase [1] - Operating revenue decreased to 8.328 billion yuan in 2024, down 2.59% from 8.549 billion yuan in 2023 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 123,731.21 million shares, accounting for 37.65% of the circulating shares, with a decrease of 5,783.94 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder, Linyi Jinzhen Investment Holding Co., Ltd., holds 98,254.74 million shares, representing 29.90% of the total share capital, with no change [2] - Notable changes include a decrease of 4,024.39 million shares held by Wan Lianbu and a new entry of shareholder Ma Yufei with 1,210 million shares [2] Dividend Policy - The company has decided not to distribute dividends or increase capital through share distribution [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed significant growth in Q4 and Q1 of 2025, indicating a potential recovery trend in the upcoming periods [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 million yuan, down 23.1% [1] - The company's Q4 2024 revenue was 1.07 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.8% [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company produced 1.815 million tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with sales of 1.741 million tons, up 8.4% [2] - In Q4 2024, production reached 491,700 tons, with sales of 500,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.4% [2] - For Q1 2025, production and sales continued to grow, reaching 506,200 tons and 528,300 tons respectively [2] Group 3: Pricing and Market Conditions - The average selling price of potassium fertilizer in H2 2024 was 2,051 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4%, while the annual average price was 1,989 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the market average price for potassium fertilizer was 2,888 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.1% [3] Group 4: Expansion Projects - The company is advancing the construction of its second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects, with significant progress made in the mining construction work [3] - The company aims to ensure the projects are operational and stable in the long term [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.64 billion, 2.43 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 72.1%, 48.4%, and 25.9% respectively [3] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 15, 10, and 8 times for the same periods [3]