Core Insights - In May 2025, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the purchasing prices fell by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1][3] Industrial Producer Price Year-on-Year Changes - In May, the ex-factory prices of production materials dropped by 4.0%, contributing approximately 2.98 percentage points to the overall decline in ex-factory prices. The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 11.9%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Consumer goods prices fell by 1.4%, with food prices also down by 1.4% [1][3] - The purchasing prices for fuel and power decreased by 9.8%, black metal materials by 7.3%, and chemical raw materials by 5.4%. Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 4.6% [1][2] Industrial Producer Price Month-on-Month Changes - In May, the ex-factory prices of production materials decreased by 0.6%, impacting the overall ex-factory price level by approximately 0.44 percentage points. The mining industry prices fell by 2.5%, while raw materials and processing prices decreased by 0.9% and 0.3%, respectively. Consumer goods prices remained stable [1][3] - The purchasing prices for fuel and power fell by 2.1%, chemical raw materials by 1.2%, and black metal materials by 0.6%. Prices for agricultural products remained unchanged [2][3] Key Industry Price Changes - The coal mining and washing industry saw a price drop of 3% year-on-year, while the oil and gas extraction industry experienced a decline of 5.6%. The black metal mining industry prices decreased by 0.9%, whereas the non-ferrous metal mining industry prices increased by 0.8% [3][4] - In the food manufacturing sector, prices fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price reached a new high, reflecting strong market performance and investor confidence [1] Group 1 - Zijin Mining's stock increased by 1.44%, reaching a price of 20.46 CNY per share [1] - The company's total market capitalization surpassed 543.77 billion CNY [1] - The trading volume for the day was 53.59 million CNY [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper futures oscillated above 80,500 today, with its open interest continuously rising. Macroscopically, the situation in the Middle East has eased, overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations have increased. Additionally, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China exceeded expectations, which is beneficial for copper prices. Industrially, downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is weak, and the sentiment of holders to hold up prices has weakened. Driven by macro factors, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong performance, and attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - **沪铝**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated narrowly above 20,600 today, and the spread between July and August widened. Macroscopically, the global macro - atmosphere has warmed up, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expects the elimination of backward production capacity. Also, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China exceeded expectations, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. Industrially, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and with the fear of high prices, they mainly make rigid purchases. Middlemen bargain for goods at a discount, and the overall trading is average. Technically, the main aluminum futures price is approaching the mid - June high, and attention should be paid to technical pressure [6]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel futures oscillated upwards today, and the main contract price stood above 121,000. The global macro - situation has improved, and nickel prices have rebounded from the bottom. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the domestic macro - situation has also improved. Fundamentally, the short - term strength of the ore end supports nickel prices, while the medium - to - long - term oversupply of nickel elements limits the upside space of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 2, Shengda Resources stated on the interactive platform that the Caiyuanzi Copper - Gold Mine of Honglin Mining is expected to start trial production from July to September 2025. On July 1, the first deep - processing transfer business of non - ferrous metal processing trade of Jinchuan Group Copper & Precious Metals Co., Ltd. was successfully implemented [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 2, SMM reported that the Guinean government announced the creation of the bauxite national index "GBX" to ensure the transparency of bauxite pricing [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 2, the mainstream reference contract in the Shanghai market for refined nickel was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,450 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 600 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,550 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,700 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,050 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][48].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced significant stock price increases, particularly with North Copper rising over 7%, driven by market dynamics and external factors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - North Copper's stock increased by over 7% during the trading session [1] - Other companies such as Jingyi Co., Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, Electric Alloy, Zhongfu Industrial, Tianshan Aluminum, and Baiyin Nonferrous also saw price increases [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A report from Wukuang Securities highlighted renewed discussions around U.S. copper tariffs, alongside low LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels leading to warehouse congestion [1] - The LME copper prices have broken through their previous trading range and are showing a strong upward trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is advised to monitor the results and implementation timeline of the Section 232 investigation, as copper prices are expected to rise ahead of any potential tariff imposition [1]

Group 1 - Hilltop Metal Mining (SVM.US) saw a 6.40% increase in stock price, reaching $4.49, with a year-to-date gain of 50% [1] - Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, increasing by 1.7%, recovering losses from the past two weeks [1] - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984 per ton, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1] - Hilltop focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of non-ferrous and precious metal mines, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc [1] - The EL Domo copper-gold project has completed a feasibility study, with a resource estimate of 10.1 million tons containing 22.9 tons of gold, 438.2 tons of silver, 20.8 million tons of copper, 25.5 million tons of zinc, and 2.3 million tons of lead [1] Group 3 - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Build Back Better" legislation is believed to be a key driver for the rise in copper prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, with a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [2] - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points starting September 2025, compared to a previous forecast of only one cut in December [2]

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder, Inner Mongolia Xingye Gold Smelting Group Co., Ltd., has had part of its shares released from judicial freeze, totaling 121,920,400 shares, which accounts for 25.13% of its holdings and 6.87% of the company's total share capital [1][2][5] - The specific shares released from the judicial freeze include 4,895,545 shares (1.01%), 365,221 shares (0.08%), 1,075,264 shares (0.22%), and 82,834,997 shares (17.07%) [1][2] - The cumulative shares frozen for the controlling shareholder amount to 32,749,373 shares (6.75%), which does not pose a risk of margin call and will not affect the company's control or financial performance [4][5] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, the controlling shareholder holds 485,240,420 shares, representing 27.33% of the company, with 363,320,020 shares being pledged or frozen [5] - The company will continue to monitor the situation regarding shareholder share freezes and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining is actively pursuing acquisitions in the gold sector, with a recent announcement of a $1.2 billion acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, following a similar acquisition in Ghana earlier this year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - The acquisition of the RG gold mine is expected to yield 6 tons of gold in 2024, with a cash cost of $796 per ounce, indicating strong profitability potential [1][3]. - The company has already completed or announced external acquisitions exceeding 22 billion yuan in the first half of the year, including the acquisition of controlling interest in Zangge Mining [5]. - The ongoing strategy of "acquisition—profit—re-acquisition" is likely to continue, with potential for further resource acquisitions even before the RG mine acquisition is finalized [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's operating cash flow has significantly increased, from 28.68 billion yuan in 2022 to an expected 48.86 billion yuan in 2024, allowing for high capital expenditure and leverage [5]. - The company's stock price has risen by 30.85% year-to-date, surpassing the performance of South American copper companies, which have seen increases of 14.19% and 15.68% [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned for a "volume and price increase" growth phase, benefiting from high historical prices for copper and gold, which may further enhance profit margins [8]. - Forecasts suggest that by 2025, Zijin Mining's revenue and net profit could reach 353.8 billion yuan and 40.7 billion yuan, respectively, indicating significant growth potential [8]. - The company's valuation may have considerable room for improvement when compared to peers like Southern Copper, which has a valuation close to 25 times its earnings [8].

有色新材料板块周观点更新 20260629 摘要 上周有色金属市场分化，黄金因中东局势缓和下跌，COMEX 黄金期货 收于 2,326.92 美元/盎司，下跌 94 美元/盎司。工业金属普涨，伦铜突 破 1 万美元/吨，镍、锡、锌涨幅超 5%，铜、铅、锌库存大幅减少，铝 库存增加。 稀有金属价格稳定，钋、钕价格零变动，镝、铪氧化物及金属价格小幅 回落。钨精矿、钨酸铵、锑精矿、锑锭、钼和钼精矿价格回落，其中钼 金属降幅较大，达 7.41%，铟及其他金属价格保持高位稳定。 能源金属方面，多晶硅和金属硅期货小幅反弹，现货价格未变，碳酸锂 期货明显上涨，现货价格小幅上涨，氢氧化锂价格稳定。刚果（金）延 长钴出口政策，钴金属价格小幅上涨。 宏观事件方面，美国总统不满美联储降息节奏，美联储官员对降息预期 存在分歧，但普遍认为下半年可能降息。香港发布数字资产发展政策 2.0，将贵金属、有色金属及可再生能源纳入代币化范畴。 行业动态方面，西部矿业增加玉龙铜业产能至 3,000 万吨，紫金矿业增 加在黑龙江的投资和采矿规模，中矿资源技改锂盐产线。冠盛锂业已涵 盖固态电池多种材料，有研新材转让硫化锂专利技术。 Q&A 上周有色金 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing a bull market driven by demand from new energy, high-end materials, and supply constraints due to dual carbon policies, pandemic impacts, and trade frictions. This has led to tight supply of metals like copper and aluminum, supporting high profits [1][2][6] - The small metals market, including molybdenum, rare earths, selenium, and uranium, is seeing price increases due to growing demand from high-end manufacturing and supply limitations. Molybdenum prices have surged significantly since 2016, reflecting the increasing demand from China's high-end manufacturing sector [1][3][4] Key Companies and Their Performance - **Dongmu Co.**: - In the automotive sector, Dongmu's powder metallurgy gear business has shown continuous growth for 67 years, with a 18% growth rate in Q1 2025. - In the consumer electronics sector, partnerships with major companies like Huawei, Apple, and Samsung are expected to drive revenue growth from 2 billion yuan last year to 3 billion yuan this year, a 50% increase [7][8] - In the robotics sector, Dongmu is the only company capable of mass-producing disc motors, with expected revenue growth from 10 million yuan last year to 40-50 million yuan this year [9] - **Longi Technology**: - Achieved qualification as a supplier for AI chip inductors, marking its transition from a raw materials company to a device company. The automotive inductor business is gradually ramping up, laying the foundation for future growth [10] - **Bokang New Materials**: - The only company capable of producing high-end nano powders below 80 nanometers, with expected demand growth of 10 times in the coming years. Also, it is one of the few companies able to produce photovoltaic copper paste as a silver paste substitute, which could significantly impact revenue and profits [11] Market Dynamics - The copper market in 2025 is facing supply disruptions due to various factors, including damage to Freeport-McMoRan's smelting plant in Indonesia, leading to a reduction of 100,000 tons in copper output. Overall, the expected increase in copper supply has dropped from 500,000-600,000 tons to 200,000-300,000 tons [13] - Copper consumption is projected to grow by 2.8% to 3% in 2025, shifting the market from a previously expected surplus of 100,000 tons to a potential deficit of 100,000-200,000 tons [14] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain a tight balance despite a slight decline in photovoltaic demand, with prices projected to fluctuate between 20,000 and 21,000 yuan [18] Strategic Metals Insights - The small metals sector, including tin, molybdenum, tungsten, and others, is expected to see significant investment opportunities due to their strategic value and increasing demand driven by geopolitical factors [19][20] - The uranium market is experiencing stable growth, with demand expected to increase by 3% to 5% annually due to the expansion of nuclear power in countries like China and the U.S. [21] - The supply side of the uranium market is characterized by high concentration and vulnerability, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia dominating global supply [22] Rare Earth Market Analysis - China maintains a dominant position in the global rare earth market, controlling 70% of mining and over 90% of refining and separation capacity. A slowdown in quota growth could lead to supply tightness and price support [29][35] - The consumption potential for rare earth magnets is significant, particularly in humanoid robots, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate exceeding 14% over the next three years [30] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals and strategic metals markets are poised for growth driven by technological advancements and supply constraints. Companies with strong positions in high-demand sectors, such as Dongmu and Bokang, are well-positioned for future profitability. The overall market dynamics suggest a favorable environment for investment in these sectors, particularly in light of geopolitical factors and evolving technological needs.

Group 1 - The company, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Inner Mongolia Dongshengmiao Mining Co., Ltd., plans to donate RMB 1.95 million to the Urat Houqi People's Government for ecological restoration and improvement of living conditions in the local area [1][2] - The donation has been approved by the company's board of directors and does not exceed 3% of the company's latest audited net assets, thus not requiring shareholder approval [1][2] - The donation is aimed at addressing the deteriorating ecological environment in Urat Houqi, which has been affected by industrial development and harsh climatic conditions [1][2] Group 2 - The donation is expected to enhance the company's social image and influence while fulfilling its corporate social responsibility [2] - The funds for the donation are sourced from the subsidiary's own funds and will not have a significant impact on the company's current or future operating performance [2]