Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price adjustment on January 6, 2026, resulted in no changes, maintaining stable fuel costs for residents and logistics in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment and Market Impact - The first price adjustment of 2026 was suspended due to the average price change being less than 50 yuan per ton, as per the current pricing mechanism [1]. - The next price adjustment window is set for January 20, 2026, with expectations of a slight decrease based on current international oil prices [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - During the current pricing cycle, both gasoline and diesel wholesale prices showed a downward trend, influenced by a decline in international oil prices and stable supply [3]. - Analysts predict that 2026 will see a primary focus on inventory reduction in the refined oil market, with increased pressure on refineries due to declining consumption and the need to manage inventory risks [4]. Group 3: International Oil Price Trends - The international oil market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with geopolitical tensions providing temporary support, but overall supply excess continues to weigh on prices [5][6]. - The U.S. is currently in a demand slump, leading to rising oil inventory levels, which further contributes to the bearish outlook for international oil prices [5][6].

新华财经北京1月6日电据国家发展改革委6日发布，自2025年12月22日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价小幅波动，按现行国内 成品油价格机制测算，2026年1月6日的前10个工作日平均价格与2025年12月22日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调价金额每吨不足50 元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 国家发展改革委指出，中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供应，严格 执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的行为，维护正常市场秩序。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector indices experienced declines, with the chemical raw materials index down by 0.65%, chemical machinery index down by 2.97%, pharmaceutical index down by 2.19%, and pesticide and fertilizer index down by 0.73% [1] - In contrast, the oil sector indices showed positive performance, with the oil processing index up by 6.19%, oil extraction index up by 4.93%, and oil trading index up by 2.66% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - International crude oil prices showed a strong fluctuation, with WTI settling at $57.32 per barrel, an increase of 1.02% from December 26, 2025, and Brent settling at $60.75 per barrel, an increase of 0.18% [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases included industrial-grade lithium carbonate up by 22.37%, purified terephthalic acid up by 8.32%, paraxylene (CFR China) up by 6.97%, polyester FDY up by 5.04%, and shale oil up by 4.98% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price declines included liquid chlorine down by 37.72%, liquefied natural gas down by 6.69%, pure MDI down by 4.23%, sulfur down by 3.96%, and vitamin D3 down by 3.85% [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies included Guoli Technology up by 20.18%, Heshun Technology up by 19.11%, Longgao Co. up by 18.91%, Shuangwei New Materials up by 15.68%, and Cangzhou Dahua up by 14.56% [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies included Qingshuiyuan down by 12.54%, Shilong Industrial down by 11.51%, Ruihua Tai down by 10.92%, Monte High-tech down by 10.21%, and Kaisheng New Materials down by 9.80% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to have significant price fluctuations in the near term, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach while keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][21] - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 15.8 tons month - on - month (7.3%) and 27.6 tons year - on - year (12.1%) [3] - As of the week ending January 2nd, most of the downstream industries'开工率 of asphalt remained stable, with the road asphalt开工率 unchanged at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [3][30] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked. The national shipment volume decreased by 3.22% week - on - week to 263,100 tons, at a neutral level [3][26] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% week - on - week, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35] - The U.S. military attack on Venezuela is expected to reduce the discount of diluted asphalt, severely restricting the flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries, affecting domestic asphalt production and costs [3] - This week, the main refineries in East China will have intermittent shutdowns, and the asphalt开工率 will remain low. The road construction in the north is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north is continuously being released. The overall demand in the south is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased [3] - The asphalt price in Shandong has increased, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3][16] 3.2 Ratio and Basis - The asphalt - to - crude oil ratio has risen to 6.99 [13] - The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract has risen to - 72 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [16] 3.3 Demand - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but remained negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7%, slightly lower than the - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 1.1%, lower than the - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [30]

Core Viewpoint - From January 1, 2026, a consumption tax will be fully levied on naphtha in the circulation link, significantly increasing production costs for enterprises [1] Group 1: Tax Policy Impact - The consumption tax will be applied to naphtha supplied internally, mutually supplied, and directly supplied for the production of ethylene and aromatic products, leading to increased transaction costs for chemical raw materials [1] - The tax policy will not apply to naphtha that is self-produced and used by enterprises, nor to mutual supply and direct supply for ethylene and aromatic production [1] Group 2: Price Changes - Following the policy adjustment, the price of naphtha for internal supply, mutual supply, and direct supply is expected to rise to approximately 7,000 yuan per ton from the previous price of 4,230 yuan per ton [2] - The consumption tax paid can be refunded, but the increased financial pressure and operational costs will still be significant for enterprises [2] Group 3: Production and Supply Dynamics - In 2025, China's naphtha production is projected to exceed 190 million tons, with market circulation estimated at only 4.5 to 5 million tons, indicating that most naphtha produced will be for self-use or internal supply [2] - The internal supply, mutual supply, and direct supply of naphtha are expected to be around 35 million tons in 2025, all of which will be subject to the new consumption tax [2] Group 4: Strategic Responses - To mitigate increased operational costs, companies are likely to enhance their naphtha yield and invest in hydrogen cracking and other facilities to optimize production parameters [3] - Companies may also increase external procurement or imports of naphtha, although imports are limited by quotas and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] - The diversification of raw material sources for steam cracking facilities may lead to an increase in the proportion of other raw materials used due to rising processing costs for naphtha [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Molong (002490) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 13%, attributed to recent government subsidies and debt restructuring efforts [1] Financial Performance - Shandong Molong received a cash subsidy of 20 million yuan, which accounts for 45.77% of the company's audited net profit attributable to shareholders for the most recent fiscal year [1] Debt Restructuring - The company is alleviating financial pressure through a debt restructuring plan, where Shouguang State-owned Assets will use assets valued at 362 million yuan to repay 361 million yuan owed to Shandong Molong [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) announced the approval of the proposal regarding the mutual guarantee limit for the year 2026 at its fourth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company held its fourth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on January 4 [1] - The proposal concerning the mutual guarantee limit for 2026 was reviewed and approved [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - International oil prices experienced slight increases due to geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Ukraine, with Brent and WTI prices at $60.75 and $57.32 per barrel respectively as of January 2, 2026 [2][9] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a strong performance, with a 3.92% increase in the sector index compared to a slight decline in the broader market [10] - The report highlights the increase in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, indicating a robust demand environment [57][62] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 2, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $60.75 per barrel, up $0.51 (+0.85%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $57.32 per barrel, an increase of $0.58 (+1.02%) [31] - The geopolitical situation, particularly in Venezuela and Ukraine, is influencing market dynamics, balancing risks of supply surplus against geopolitical tensions [2][9] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 375, with notable additions in Africa, Europe, and North America [40] - Floating drilling platforms also saw a rise, totaling 131, with increases in Africa and South America [40] Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.827 million barrels per day, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 million barrels from the previous week [57] - The active rig count in the U.S. rose to 412, indicating ongoing exploration and production activities [57] Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.847 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.70%, showing a slight increase in operational efficiency [62] - The report notes stable refinery operation rates in China, with major refineries operating at 75.11% capacity [62] Crude Oil Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 1.686 million barrels (-0.20%) from the previous week [75] - Strategic reserves increased slightly, while commercial inventories saw a notable decline [75] Finished Oil Products - In North America, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were reported at $89.37, $71.66, and $80.18 per barrel respectively, with corresponding price differentials to crude oil [99]

上市企业：宝利国际（300135）,恒基达鑫（002492），中国石化（600028） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乙醇汽油行业发展现状调查及市场分析预测报告》 2020-2025年1-11月中国汽油产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国汽油产量为1247万吨，同比增长3.1%；2025年1-11月中国汽 油累计产量为14201.6万吨，累计下降3.9%。 ...