Core Viewpoint - Thai authorities are considering imposing taxes on physical gold transactions to address the strengthening of the Thai baht, which threatens exports and tourism, and to investigate the unusual surge in gold exports to Cambodia [2][3]. Group 1: Taxation and Regulatory Measures - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing ways to tax gold transactions conducted online and settled in Thai baht, potentially exempting dollar-denominated transactions and futures trading [2][3]. - The proposed tax aims to reduce gold exports and increase the cost of gold ownership for Thai citizens, as dollar inflows linked to gold exports are contributing to the baht's appreciation [2][3]. Group 2: Gold Export Trends - In the first seven months of this year, Thailand's gold exports surged by 69% year-on-year, reaching 254 billion Thai baht (approximately 8 billion USD), with a notable increase in exports to Cambodia [3]. - Exports to Cambodia increased by 19% year-on-year, totaling 71.3 billion Thai baht (about 2.25 billion USD), potentially surpassing last year's record of 106 billion Thai baht [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The strengthening baht is negatively impacting the export and tourism sectors, which together account for 70% of Thailand's GDP, with exporters facing challenges due to a 19% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Thai products [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for money laundering through gold, as the significant increase in gold exports to Cambodia appears inconsistent with the country's size and demand [3][4]. Group 4: Cultural Significance and Demand - Gold holds deep cultural and historical significance in Thailand, often used as a form of savings and wealth transfer, with demand having grown by 13% last year, making Thailand the only country to see continuous growth in gold demand since the COVID-19 pandemic began [5][6]. - Approximately 70% of gold purchases in Thailand are made through various online platforms, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards digital transactions [6].

所以，黄金这头蛮牛还在往山上跑，那些宏观经济面就不多说了，就单看现在的中东局势，以色列的大动作都上全球热搜了，把老美的老特都卷进这场风波 了，俄乌冲突至今也还未停歇，你说军事带来的货币政策在及其不稳定下，黄金这把货币的"千斤顶"短期能卸下来吗？现在某些知名大投构把国际金价看到 4000 美元/盎司上方，香港黄金交易所的理事们包括第一金管理层也预测金价长趋势会奔赴 4000 美元/盎司，假设你说 4000 点太遥远了，咱们打个折先看 3700 到 3800 美元那还是有很大机会的！ 上周五迎来周线收官，行情依然连续持续了几天不温不火的震荡趋势，周 K 收线并没有出现过大的单边行情，因此黄金的多空较量与突破显然开始静等本 周四的美联储降息确定结果，如果现价看空，貌似有些草率，那高位追多也过于激进了，不排除黄金会先回踩在重新"登顶"，如果是还没有入市做长线的朋 友，美联储议息前就建议不要盲目跟风布局黄金方向，先让黄金这头蛮牛在震荡区间内的牛栏跑一跑，跑出个明朗区间突破方向你在来这头蛮牛的脚印走， 岂不是更加好？ 美联储议息的前夕，香港第一金市场部负责人陈生：GOLDFX009 （微）分析一下短趋势黄金参考攻略，黄金 ...

而且，这类事件并非第一次发生。2024年4月，水贝市场就有"千百万珠宝"暴雷，涉及400公斤黄金，金 额高达2亿元5。2025年4月，还有一位老板因炒黄金亏损1亿元。一些商家甚至用"镀金"冒充真金，例 如"金包银"或在黄金中掺铼，普通消费者根本无法辨别。 这次暴雷事件不仅让许多家庭损失惨重，还严重破坏了市场信任。老百姓在选择黄金投资时，一定要谨 慎考察商家信誉，避免依赖口头协议和高回报承诺，优先选择正规渠道和受监管的交易方式。只有这 样，才能避免成为下一个受害者。 这件事的根本原因在于商家们投机做空黄金失败。当金价在每克780元时，他们借入大量黄金卖出，指 望金价跌到760元时再买回来还回去，赚取中间差价。但没想到黄金价格一路暴涨到830元，他们每克反 而要亏50元。巨大的亏损无法弥补，资金链断裂，最终只能选择跑路。 危害最大的就是普通老百姓。比如有一对刚刚裸辞创业的01年姐妹，她们投入了1.6万元购买黄金原 料，结果血本无归，连报案回执都难以拿到。这样的受害者不在少数，许多人多年积蓄一夜蒸发。更可 怕的是，水贝市场的交易多数依赖"熟人模式"，没有正式合同，仅靠微信聊天和转账凭证完成。一旦出 现问题，维权极其 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a gold reserve of 74.02 million ounces, indicating a consistent accumulation strategy over the past ten months, reflecting a significant long-term investment approach [3][6] - A third of global central banks plan to increase gold reserves in the next two years, with 40% intending to continue this trend over the next decade, showcasing a shift in global monetary policy [3][6] - The timing of the announcement on a Sunday was strategic, allowing global institutions to digest the information without immediate market volatility, indicating a sophisticated understanding of market dynamics [3][6] Group 2 - The invitation for President Trump and his wife to visit China suggests a need for dialogue amid economic pressures, particularly regarding the U.S. manufacturing sector and reliance on Chinese resources [5][6] - The U.S. is facing challenges with its national debt and reliance on China for rare earth elements, which adds pressure on the administration to engage with China [5][6] - The evolving global reserve asset structure is described as a "sandwich structure," with gold as a stabilizer, the internationalization of the renminbi in the middle, and control over strategic resources at the top, contrasting with the U.S. dollar's dominance [5][6] Group 3 - The developments highlight the precarious position of the U.S. dollar's hegemony, as the U.S. requires Chinese markets and resources while fearing the diversification of currencies [6][8] - Increased gold reserves are seen as a form of insurance for China's assets, which could lead to a more stable renminbi and potentially lower import costs for consumers [6][8] - The changes in the international order reflect a transition where countries with strength and preparation will have more influence, indicating a shift away from unilateral dominance [8]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns have been raised regarding the strong performance of the Thai baht, particularly in light of the shrinking trade between Thailand and Cambodia due to border conflicts, which could negatively impact exports [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The value of gold exports from Thailand to Cambodia reached approximately $2.149 billion, equivalent to about 68 billion baht, for the period from January to July 2025 [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Thai baht has appreciated by over 7%, ranking second in the region after Taiwan [1] - The Industrial Council plans to engage with the central bank and government departments to discuss and formulate strategies to address the potential negative effects on exports [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - YLG, a Thai gold trader, predicts that gold prices in Thailand may continue to rise, potentially reaching 57,000 baht by 2025, with global gold prices expected to face resistance at $3,750 per ounce [1] - Thailand is ranked among the top ten gold buyers globally and fourth in Asia [1] - Thailand is the only country to experience continuous growth in gold consumption demand for four consecutive years since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2021 [1] Group 3: Trade Concerns - The significant amount of gold exported to Cambodia, amidst serious fraud issues in the country, could lead to unnecessary public relations challenges for Thailand [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam plans to launch an online gold trading platform next month and restart gold imports after over a decade, aiming to stabilize soaring domestic gold prices [1] - The initiative is expected to balance the supply and demand of gold in the domestic market and potentially attract private capital inflows, stimulating overall economic growth [1] - The State Bank of Vietnam is studying international experiences in establishing online gold trading platforms and is considering conducting gold trading at the Vietnam Commodity Exchange or a proposed international financial center [1] Group 2 - A government decree allows eligible enterprises to import gold starting from October 10, with the State Bank responsible for issuing import licenses and setting annual quotas [1] - Economists predict that increasing gold imports may help cool domestic gold prices and reduce the gap with international gold prices, although there are concerns about potential pressure on the exchange rate [1] - On August 26, Vietnam officially lifted the state monopoly on gold bar production, marking a significant shift in the country's gold market dynamics [2]

Core Insights - The global gold industry is undergoing a significant digital transformation with the World Gold Council's proposal to launch a gold-backed digital token in London, aiming to revolutionize trading, settlement, and collateralization methods [1] - The initiative is expected to invigorate the $930 billion global physical gold trading market while sparking discussions on the clash between tradition and innovation [1] Group 1: Digital Token Introduction - The proposed digital token, named "Pooled Gold Interest" (PGI), will represent legal ownership of specific physical gold stored in London, allowing investors to trade fractional ownership of standard 400-ounce gold bars [2] - The goal is to enhance the liquidity of gold as a financial collateral, making it as easy to pledge gold as it is to pledge bonds [2] Group 2: Market Structure and Potential - PGI is seen as a "third pillar" in the London over-the-counter gold market, complementing existing trading modes of "Allocated Gold" and "Unallocated Gold" [3] - As of June 30, the total gold stored in London vaults was 8,776 tons, valued at $9,275 billion, with potential for PGI to serve as a physical settlement mechanism for gold futures contracts [3] Group 3: Market Skepticism - Market reactions are polarized, with some traditional gold investors expressing skepticism about the digitalization of gold, fearing it may reintroduce risks associated with financial complexity and opacity [4] - Concerns are also raised about the slow adoption of previous initiatives, such as the blockchain-based "Gold Bar Integrity Program," which casts uncertainty on the future of PGI [4]

Group 1 - The core proposal from the World Gold Council aims to introduce a digital token backed by physical gold in London, potentially revitalizing the $930 billion global physical gold trading market [1][2] - The digital token, named Pooled Gold Interest (PGI), will represent legal ownership of specific physical gold stored in London, allowing investors to trade fractional ownership of standard 400-ounce gold bars [2][3] - The initiative seeks to enhance the liquidity of gold as a financial collateral, making it easier to meet margin requirements and access the vast global collateral market [2] Group 2 - The introduction of PGI is seen as a "third pillar" in the London over-the-counter gold market, alongside allocated and unallocated gold trading models [3] - As of June 30, the total amount of gold stored in London was 8,776 tons, valued at $9,275 billion, indicating a significant asset base for the proposed digital token [3] - There are ambitions to expand the application of PGI beyond the UK, with considerations for implementation in the US and other jurisdictions [3] Group 3 - Market reactions to the proposal are polarized, with some traditional gold investors expressing skepticism about the digitalization of gold, fearing it may reintroduce risks associated with financial complexity [4] - Concerns are raised about the effectiveness of previous initiatives, such as the blockchain-based "Gold Bar Integrity Program," which saw slow adoption in the market [4] - The future of PGI remains uncertain, with debates ongoing about whether it represents a transformative industry revolution or merely a superficial attempt [4]

Core Insights - The global asset allocation is accelerating its digital transformation, with blockchain and digital technologies reshaping traditional financial markets, including the gold market [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) has launched the Wholesale Digital Gold project, reflecting the demand for digitalization, transparency, and efficiency in the gold market [1][2] - The introduction of digital pooled gold interests (PGIs) aims to combine the benefits of allocated and unallocated gold, providing investors with real ownership and liquidity [1][2] Group 1 - The Wholesale Digital Gold project allows market participants to co-own pooled gold and obtain fractional ownership digitally, making gold more accessible and flexible for investment [2] - This new model lowers the entry barrier for investors and allows digital gold rights to be used as collateral for financing or trading [2] - WGC has partnered with international law firm Linklaters to establish a legal framework for digital gold rights, ensuring ownership legality and transferability [2] Group 2 - The digitalization of gold is gaining traction, with companies like BioSig Technologies raising up to $1.1 billion to develop tokenized gold products on blockchain [3] - This trend indicates that gold is evolving from a traditional safe-haven asset to a comprehensive investment tool with liquidity and digital attributes [3] - The rise of digital gold is modernizing gold trading and may become a significant component of global investment portfolios, aiding in risk diversification and asset preservation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a slowdown in employment demand in the U.S. due to increased policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariff policies, which may lead to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the coming years [1][2]. Economic Analysis - U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, marking a near 10-month low, reflecting a trend of companies pausing hiring plans amid uncertain policies [1]. - The Federal Reserve has room to lower short-term interest rates, with a neutral federal funds rate estimated around 3%, suggesting potential rate cuts in the future [1]. - Market concerns persist regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, which may take months to fully manifest [2]. Trade and Tariff Implications - President Trump indicated that if U.S. courts rule against his global tariff policy, trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea could be nullified, emphasizing tariffs as a negotiation tool [2]. - The global largest gold ETF saw a reduction in holdings by 6.3 tons, bringing the total to 984.26 tons, indicating market reactions to these economic conditions [2]. Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices have risen over $260 from a support level of $3,310 per ounce, signaling a strong bullish trend, with normal pullbacks expected [3]. - Short-term support for gold is identified at $2,508 per ounce, with potential for further price fluctuations as the market approaches key trading sessions [3]. - The gold price is expected to enter a wide range of fluctuations, with $3,577 per ounce as a potential high and $3,310 per ounce as a low, indicating a narrowing trading range before a breakout [3]. Trading Strategies - Current trading strategies suggest a bearish outlook if gold rebounds to $3,550, with a target of $3,510, and a bullish outlook if it retraces to $3,510, targeting $3,448 [5].