大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 【粕类日报】贸易影响增加 粕类继续走强 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/4/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | 3127 | 103 | 天津 | 360 | 370 | -10 | | 0 5 豆粕 | 2973 | 8 8 | 东莞 | 110 | 120 | -10 | | 0 9 | 3164 | 108 | 张家港 | 200 | 220 | -20 | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 0 1 | 2457 | 100 | 南通 | -125 | - 8 | -117 | | 菜粕 0 5 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米主力 2505 合约减仓调整，现货回落，5 月合约多空主力向 7 月合约移 | 震荡 | | | 仓。周初，在北港玉米库存下降的利好因素影响下，玉米 9 月和 11 月合约企稳 | | | | 上行，远月领涨、近月跟涨，7 月合约在重要支撑位 2300 元/吨整数关口企稳， | | | | 短期价格企稳上行。近期，东北玉米价格整体偏弱，港口及深加工玉米价格下调 | | | | 都对价格有不利影响，但产区余粮整体偏少对行情也有一定的支撑。华北地区玉 | | | | 米价格整体维持稳定，个别企业价格窄幅调整，主流价格维持稳定。目前山东深 | | | 玉米 | 加工主流价格维持在 2250-2340 元/吨，贸易商对短期上涨预期减弱，在利润较 | | | | 为可观的情况下，以逢高出货策略为主。整体来看 ，玉米主力 2505 合约自 3 月 | | | | 中旬的 2336 元/吨的价格高点持续回落近两周时间，5 月期价下跌至 2240 元/吨 | | | | 的价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant harvest of soybeans in Brazil this year is exerting increasing pressure on future supply. With sufficient bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills and expected increases in soybean arrivals, the domestic supply side is relatively relaxed. Meanwhile, the livestock industry has adjusted the proportion of bean meal in feed due to declining profits, leading to weak downstream demand and a pessimistic sentiment in the spot market. Future soybean arrivals and policy changes need continuous monitoring [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of surplus grain from farmers has progressed rapidly, and some traders are selling their stocks, resulting in relatively limited remaining grain in production areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing increased losses, some with high inventory pressures, leading to more starch enterprises scheduling maintenance and a slight decline in the industry's operating rate. Feed enterprises also have relatively high inventories, slowing down their spot purchasing. The market sentiment has become more cautious, with a moderation in the sentiment of hoarding and expecting price increases. Corn prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2505 contract was 2832 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.27% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 308, down 38 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 188, down 28; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 128, down 28. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 - 12, down 2 [1] - **Market Information**: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop was 81.4%, up from 76.4% a week ago and higher than 71.0% in the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive week of exceeding the previous year's progress. The five - year average harvest progress for the same period was 67.2%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 99.1% (96.2% last year, five - year average 96.3%); in Paraná, it was 90.0% (87.0% last year, five - year average 68.8%) [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The large Brazilian soybean harvest is increasing supply pressure. Domestic oil mills have sufficient bean meal inventory, and with more soybeans expected to arrive, the supply side is relaxed. Weak demand from the livestock industry due to profit declines and concerns about future supply are affecting the market [2] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2268 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract closed at 2639 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.50% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 - 78, down 4 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 11, down 13 [3] - **Market Information**: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's 2024/25 crop was 53.3%, higher than 46.4% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 41.1%. The sowing progress of the second - season corn was 97.9%, compared to 98.7% last year and a five - year average of 92.5%. StoneX recently lowered its forecast for Brazil's first - season corn production to 25.9 million tons (previously 26.53 million tons) and second - season corn production to 101.62 million tons (previously 102.13 million tons) due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers in production areas have sold most of their surplus grain, and some traders are also selling, resulting in limited remaining grain. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing losses and high inventory, leading to more maintenance and a decline in the operating rate. Feed enterprises have high inventories, slowing down their purchasing. Market sentiment has become more cautious, and corn prices are expected to remain volatile [4]

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

Group 1 - Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, including a 100% additional tariff on canola oil [1] - The price of canola, a key raw material for cooking oil, has sharply declined, with Canadian canola futures closing at CAD 552.9 per ton on March 13, marking a 12% drop compared to the previous week and reaching the lowest point since mid-September 2024 [1] - China is expected to strengthen its countermeasures against Canada, including anti-dumping investigations on canola imports, which may lead to a decrease in global demand for canola [1] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that speculators have begun to close their long positions in canola, with prices potentially falling to the range of CAD 550 to CAD 550 [1]