证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 23 年 月 日 熊猫债驱动人民币实现跨境循环。作为境外主体在境内发行的人民币债 券，熊猫债驱动人民币形成了"境内募资-境外使用-跨境回流"的闭环链 条。从存量熊猫债披露的募集资金用途来看，发行人除了将一部分资金存 于境内 NRA 账户，用于偿还境内债务或境内营运，也还会将一定比例的 募集资金汇出境外使用。 熊猫债扩容的背后是人民币稳定度的提升和境内利率水平的下降。从汇率 角度看，今年以来美元指数呈趋势性下行，同期 CFETS 人民币汇率指数呈 现"先下后稳"特征，整体波动幅度亦小于美元指数； 从利率角度看，2024 年以来熊猫债发行利率与美国国债收益率走势呈现分化特征，美债收益率 在 2024 年初明显冲高回落，且波动相对剧烈。同期限熊猫债利率更加平 稳且呈下行趋势，低利率对国际发行人具有更强的吸引力。 央国企主导，中短期为主。熊猫债发行人中，央企与地方国有企业合计金 额占比 43%，为当前熊猫债市场的核心发行主体，其次为国际开发机构， 金额占比 18%。从发行期限结构占比来看，1 年以内短期品种金额占比呈 持续下降态势；1-3 年中 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the dairy products industry Core Insights - The dairy products industry in China has experienced rapid growth due to economic development and a large population, evolving through six distinct phases from its inception to the present recovery period post-pandemic [12][15] - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is recovering, but the dairy products segment is projected to decline by 3.1% in sales in 2024 [15][18] - The market size of the dairy products sector is expected to reach approximately 5,216.70 billion yuan by 2022, with projections of 5,966.60 billion yuan by 2026 [26][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The dairy products industry connects agriculture and food processing, producing various products such as liquid milk, milk powder, cheese, butter, and ice cream [9][11] Historical Development - The industry has evolved from a period of scarcity (1949-1978) to a recovery phase (2020-present), with significant milestones including the introduction of UHT technology and the impact of the melamine scandal [12][13] Current Industry Status - The FMCG market is stabilizing, but the dairy segment is facing a decline, with a projected sales drop of 3.1% in 2024 [15][16] Market Size - The retail scale of the dairy products market has shown fluctuations, with a slight decline in production expected due to overcapacity and reduced demand [20][22] Policy Environment - Recent policies focus on quality improvement and consumption stimulation, aiming to address overcapacity and promote high-value-added products [27][29] Industry Chain - The dairy industry features a long supply chain, including raw milk supply, processing, and retail, with strong interdependencies among various segments [31] Upstream Supply - China relies on imported milk powder to supplement its domestic raw milk production, which is insufficient to meet demand [34][36] Midstream Processing - The processing segment is the most profitable, with significant value addition through technology and innovation [39][41] Downstream Retail - Traditional retail channels dominate, but online sales are growing, reflecting changing consumer preferences [42][44] Consumption Patterns - Per capita dairy consumption in China is low compared to developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market [47][51] Competitive Landscape - The market is primarily dominated by two major players, Yili and Mengniu, which together hold over 50% of the market share [60][62] Case Study: Yili Group - Yili Group is a leading player with a diverse product range and significant market presence, achieving substantial revenue from liquid milk and milk powder [64][66] Future Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as supply chain risks, changing consumer perceptions, and technological limitations in deep processing [70][72] Future Opportunities - There are growth opportunities in the B2B dairy market, driven by increasing demand for cheese and butter in various sectors [76][78]

Summary of Yili Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Co., Ltd. - **Date**: September 22, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Strategy - Yili's strategy for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is cautious, focusing on channel health without forcing inventory on distributors, with stock preparation starting later than last year, primarily completed by the end of September [2][3][4] - The company maintains its annual operational targets, expecting low single-digit revenue growth and a net profit margin of 9%, despite weak recovery in the ambient liquid milk segment [2][8] Performance Insights - Performance across product categories is mixed; cold drinks are less affected by inventory cycles, while yogurt products, particularly the upgraded versions, are performing well [2][9] - The milk powder segment achieved double-digit growth in the first half of the year, with cash rebates for childbirth subsidies expected to drive future repurchase rates [2][12] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Yili's market share in the ambient liquid milk segment remains stable, benefiting from rising costs among smaller dairy companies, with a focus on maintaining a stable pricing structure [2][16] - The cheese business also saw double-digit growth, with an increasing share of B2B sales driven by the recovery of the catering market [2][17][20] Financial Outlook - The company expects a slight improvement in gross margins in the second half of the year, although not as significant as in the first half, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% [4][30][25] - The impact of childbirth subsidies on financials is minimal, with expectations of increased revenue from infant formula due to potential repurchase growth [12][31] Consumer Trends and Product Development - The gifting market has diversified, with a growing preference for health-oriented dairy products over traditional gifts like mooncakes, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [10] - Yili is expanding its B2B market presence by collaborating with new channels such as tea and coffee chains, while also focusing on customized product offerings [18][20] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in maintaining profitability due to potential price competition and the need for promotional activities, especially during peak sales periods [28][29] - The outlook for raw material costs is cautiously optimistic, with signs of supply-demand balance emerging, although precise timing for cost changes remains uncertain [24] Additional Insights - The company is preparing for the launch of a deep processing production line aimed at enhancing customization capabilities for B2B clients [21][23] - Yili's cheese product sales structure currently shows a 60% share in B2B and 40% in B2C, indicating a strong focus on the B2B segment [19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Yili's operational strategies, market performance, and future outlook in the dairy industry.

Core Viewpoint - Yipin Nutrition, known as China's second-largest goat milk powder company, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amid intense competition in the dairy industry, but it faces challenges with declining revenue and profits due to a sluggish goat milk powder market [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yipin Nutrition reported a revenue of 806 million yuan, a decrease of 10.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56.688 million yuan, down 42.57% year-on-year [1] - From 2022 to 2024, Yipin Nutrition's revenue showed steady growth, recording 1.402 billion yuan, 1.614 billion yuan, and 1.762 billion yuan respectively, while net profit fluctuated at 227 million yuan, 168 million yuan, and 172 million yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The company's goat milk powder revenue, which constitutes a significant portion of its performance, declined by 18.6% to 448 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The product concentration is notably high, with infant formula goat milk powder revenues of 772 million yuan, 926 million yuan, and 1.033 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 55.1%, 57.4%, and 58.6% of total revenue respectively [1] Cost Structure - Yipin Nutrition's operating cash flow net amount dropped by over 60% year-on-year, while all three major expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) increased, particularly sales expenses [1] - Despite the financial strain, the company has reduced its already low R&D expenses further [1] Dividend Policy - Prior to the IPO, Yipin Nutrition has frequently issued large dividends, which coincided with a significant drop in net profit of over 40% [1]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临2025-065 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于 2025年度第八期超短期融资券兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）于2025年7月成功发行了2025年度第八期超短期融资 券，具体情况如下： ■ 2025年9月19日，公司完成了2025年度第八期超短期融资券的兑付工作，本息兑付总额为人民币 11,034,283,835.62元，由银行间市场清算所股份有限公司代理划付至债券持有人指定的银行账户。 特此公告 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 ● 担保对象及基本情况 ■ ● 累计担保情况 ■ ● 本公告中担保金额折算汇率以2025年9月19日的汇率中间价计算：1欧元对人民币8.3834元 一、担保情况概述 （二）内部决策程序 二〇二五年九月二十三日 证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临2025-066 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，蒙牛乳业在港交所公告显示，9月22日以每股14.990港元至15.050港元的价格回 购20.00万股，回购金额达300.39万港元。该股当日收盘价15.040港元，下跌1.31%，全天成交额3.31亿 港元。 自9月10日以来公司已连续9日进行回购，合计回购181.80万股，累计回购金额2764.28万港元。 其间该 股累计平盘报收。 | 2025.05.20 | 15.00 | 18.380 | 18.320 | 275.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.05.19 | 15.00 | 18.100 | 18.020 | 271.01 | | 2025.05.16 | 15.00 | 18.420 | 18.300 | 276.05 | | 2025.05.15 | 15.00 | 18.460 | 18.260 | 275.41 | | 2025.05.14 | 15.00 | 18.660 | 18.280 | 278.17 | | 2025.05.13 | 20.00 | 18.380 | 18.100 | 365.05 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group announced the completion of the repayment of its 2025 eighth phase of short-term financing bonds, with a total principal and interest repayment amounting to RMB 11,034,283,835.62 [1] Summary by Category - **Company Announcement** - Yili Group completed the repayment of its 2025 eighth phase short-term financing bonds on September 19, 2025 [1] - The total amount for principal and interest repayment was RMB 11,034,283,835.62 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of Baifei Dairy, a company specializing in water buffalo milk, amidst a challenging environment for the dairy industry, highlighting its unique advantages and the challenges it faces in the IPO process [3][5][44]. Industry Overview - The dairy industry in China is currently experiencing a downturn, with over 60% of 28 listed dairy companies reporting revenue declines in the first half of the year [8][9]. - The industry is facing a severe milk source crisis characterized by cyclical supply-demand imbalances leading to price fluctuations [9][10]. - Major players like Yili and Mengniu are struggling with liquid milk sales, relying on other products like milk powder and ice cream for growth [12][13]. Company Performance - Baifei Dairy achieved revenue of 722 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, significantly outperforming its peers [14]. - The company has doubled its revenue and net profit over the past three years and plans to raise 497 million yuan through its IPO, primarily for capacity expansion and marketing [6][14]. Competitive Advantages - Baifei Dairy benefits from three key advantages: category, cost, and channel [17]. - The category advantage stems from water buffalo milk being a niche product with stable pricing and less competition from larger companies [18][19]. - The cost advantage is realized through a unique product mix that combines water buffalo milk with regular cow's milk, allowing for lower procurement costs [32][36]. - The channel advantage is attributed to its focus on emerging sales channels like online e-commerce and snack retail, which are growing rapidly [42]. IPO Challenges - Baifei Dairy's IPO journey has been complicated by regulatory challenges and market conditions, with concerns about its profitability sustainability and future growth potential [44][47]. - The company has faced difficulties in meeting the requirements of stock exchanges, particularly regarding scale and innovation [45][48]. - Despite these challenges, Baifei Dairy continues to pursue its IPO to secure funding for expansion and to address its supply chain limitations [50][80]. Future Outlook - The future of water buffalo milk as a niche market depends on overcoming supply constraints and achieving product diversification [60][71]. - The company is investing in upstream supply sources to enhance control over its milk supply and is exploring product diversification to expand its market reach [71][78]. - The potential for growth remains, but Baifei Dairy must navigate competitive pressures from larger dairy companies and emerging brands in the market [58][79].

Group 1 - The company will cancel 2 million repurchased shares on September 23, 2025, at China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [1] - After the cancellation, the total number of shares will decrease from 512 million to 510 million [1] - This cancellation will not have a significant impact on the company's financial status or operating results, nor will it change the controlling shareholder or actual controller [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhuangyuan Pastoral has been declining for four consecutive days, with a total drop of 7.76% during this period, indicating potential concerns regarding the company's performance and market sentiment [1]. Company Overview - Zhuangyuan Pastoral, established on April 25, 2000, and listed on October 31, 2017, is located in Lanzhou, Gansu Province. The company specializes in the production, processing, and sales of dairy products and dairy beverages, as well as dairy cattle breeding [1]. - The revenue composition of Zhuangyuan Pastoral includes: sterilized milk (37.04%), fermented milk (24.37%), formulated milk (22.21%), pasteurized milk (8.20%), fresh milk (4.60%), other products (2.77%), and dairy beverages (0.81%) [1]. Shareholder Analysis - Noan Fund's Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A (320016) has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Zhuangyuan Pastoral, holding 1.0996 million shares, which accounts for 0.64% of the circulating shares. The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 296,900 yuan today and a total floating loss of 857,700 yuan over the four-day decline [2]. - Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A was established on August 9, 2011, with a current scale of 1.399 billion yuan. Year-to-date returns are 58.29%, ranking 568 out of 8,244 in its category, while the one-year return is 115.6%, ranking 325 out of 8,066 [2]. - The fund managers, Kong Xianzheng and Wang Haichang, have tenures of 4 years and 3 years respectively, with varying performance metrics during their management periods [2].